We finished with a flourish at Fairyhouse with our 22/1 e/w NAP Miles To Memphis grabbing second and our NB Paper Lantern hosing up for Karl Thornton in the lucky last. A Toi Phil also got a place at 16s, so overall it was a decent day. The Aintree Grand National Festival gets underway on Thursday and I fancy a couple at decent prices. Check out my preview and tips below.
It is a case of straight in, no kissing at Aintree this week with the Thursday card kicking off with a Grade 1 20f Novices’ Chase. Often at Aintree it can pay to side with horses that have swerved the Cheltenham Festival. However, usually there is a shorter gap between Cheltenham and Aintree but this year the horses have had a month to recover.
Even so, a hard race at Cheltenham can leave its mark and I think Modus looks interesting here after never figuring on soft ground in the JLT behind Shattered Love. The good to soft surface will suit him better at Aintree and a small field of just six horses should be in his favour too.
I am not sure what Brain Power actually achieved by finishing a 14L second to Footpad at Cheltenham and if Davy Russell had the chance to ride the race again on Petit Mouchoir I think he would have beaten the Henderson horse. Finian’s Oscar flopped at Cheltenham, but he won a Grade 1 here last year and if he bounces back he is feared most. However, at the prices Modus is the one for me and at 7/1 he should be in the first two.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: MODUS E/W @ 7/1
Race 2
The second race on the cards is another Grade 1, this time a 16.5f contest for Juvenile 4yo hurdlers. Nicky Henderson holds a very strong hand in this race and Apple’s Shakira was viewed by many as one of the best bets of the week at Cheltenham, but she finished a well beaten 4th in the Triumph and I am not sure if this flatter track and better ground will play to her strengths.
We Have A Dream is vying for favouritism with the McManus filly and he has won his two starts on decent ground by a combined total of 20L (including a Grade 2 by 10L 16.5f gd). He wasn’t quite as impressive the last twice on soft/heavy but he remains unbeaten in four runs for Nicky Henderson and back on a sounder surface he rates as a massive danger to all. The bookies haven’t missed him though and he is just 2/1.
At a bigger price perhaps Beau Gosse can go well for France. The French cleaned up at the All-Weather Championships and this son of Falco will be ridden by James Reveley. He was well beaten on good ground on his first start for almost 4 months at Kempton by Redicean but the underfoot conditions were likely against him. It will be a shade softer at Aintree and with that Kempton run under his belt he could improve. At odds of 16/1 he is the each way selection.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: BEAU GOSSE E/W @ 16/1
The Betway Bowl is the third of four Grade 1s on the opening day of the Aintree Grand National Festival and Might Bite is a short price to go one better than in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Soft ground blunted his turn of foot that day and he was unable to reel in the winner Native River. He did have an extremely tough race though and for that reason I have decided to go with an each way alternative at bigger odds.
Only a length separated Double Shuffle and Might Bite when they met at Kempton (24f soft) back at Xmas and Tom George’s 8yo son of Milan looks to represent serious each way value here. He had previously chased home Top Notch at Ascot and he is suited by fast flat tracks. He will appreciate the decent ground, he is one of the freshest horses in the race and this is likely to have been his seasonal target. At odds of 11/1 he looks a cracking each way bet.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: DOUBLE SHUFFLE E/W @ 11/1 NAP
Race 4
The final Grade 1 of the day on Thursday is the Aintree Hurdle and nine horses go to post for this 20f race. Supasundae is a warm favourite following his cracking effort behind Penhill in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and this versatile sort has won at trips ranging from 16f to 21f. He was a decent 2nd to Yanworth over 3 miles here last year but at 11/10 he looks a shade short to me.
A couple of pensioners in The New One (9/2) and My Tent Or Yours (5/1) are next best in the betting but they are 10yo and 11yo respectively now and it would take a monumental effort for either one of those to win this contest. Of the two The New One is slightly preferred as he has an excellent record at Aintree and he won this contest back in 2014.
A horse I have long held in high regard is Scottish raider Cyrus Darius and before his setback he looked a massively promising sort when scoring comfortably in a Grade 2 Novice here in 2015 (16.5f gd/sft). Ruth Jefferson’s son of Overbury is likely to have been trained with this race firmly in mind and he showed that all his old ability remains with a 12L romp at Kelso on heavy last time. He is unbeaten at this trip, he is very lightly raced for a 9yo and at 33/1 he could give each way backers a good run for their money.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: CYRUS DARIUS E/W @ 33/1
Race 5
This is not a race that appeals to me from a betting perspective and it is one to just watch and enjoy.
The sixth race on the card is a Grade 3 handicap chase and I am all over Tommy Silver for this heat. I fancied this fella big style for the Grand Annual at Cheltenham but unfortunately, he was scratched from the field due to the bad weather and soft ground. As a result, he comes into this 16f race a fresh horse and off a mark of 144 I think he could go very well on the forecast good to soft ground at odds of 11/1.
With a total of sixteen horses going to post it makes sense to have a small saver on something else at a bigger price and at odds of 20/1 Vosne Romanee could go well for Richard Newland and Brian Hughes. These two have a brilliant strike rate when teaming up with Hughes winning on 7 of his 15 rides (47%) for Newland and finishing in the frame on a further four occasions.
Vosne Romanee has yet to finish out of the first three in five chase starts, winning three with one 2nd and one 3rd. He wouldn’t want any more rain to arrive (none forecast) and the more the track dries out, the better. He was a fine 4th in a Grade 2 handicap off 135 at Ayr last season (16f gd/sft) so he should be fine once it is genuine good to soft ground. At odds of 20/1 he could go well for each way players.
STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: TOMMY SILVER E/W @ 11/1 NB; VOSNE ROMANEE E/W 20/1
Race 7
No bet for me in this Mares’ Bumper.
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