Although we only had one 15/8 winner (Corinthia Knight) and one 8/1 place (Carolinae) on Good Friday at Lingfield, most of our selections ran creditable races. Suzi’s Connoisseur was hampered when challenging for a place close home, while Watersmeet led everywhere bar on the line. Gulliver ran flat and could only manage 5th, while King Malpic flew home for 4th and was unlucky not to place. Tomorrow is Grand National Day at Fairyhouse and you can find out my fancies below.
Race 1
A very tricky race starts proceedings at Fairyhouse on Monday and this 20 runner 2 mile novice handicap hurdle looks wide open. It is 9/1 the field and in a race like this small stakes each way on something at a nice price is the way to go. The one I like is Play With The Wind, a 5yo son of Flemensfirth trained by Joseph O’Brien and ridden by Jody McGarvey.
This fella ran a respectable race at Navan last time when he finished in close proximity to his stablemate On The Mend. Both horses are owned by JP McManus and Barry Geraghty prefers the chances of On The Mend. However, with so little between them on the evidence of that Navan run I would side with the bigger priced one of the two.
That is Play With The Wind at 20/1 and Jody McGarvey actually has an excellent record when riding for Joseph O’Brien. He has ridden 16 winners for him (one more than Geraghty) from 110 rides and he has finished in the first 4 on a further 35 occasions. This horse will probably stay further in time judging by his pedigree, but at this stage of his career 2 miles should be no problem to him and at 20/1 Play With The Wind is the each way selection.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: PLAY WITH THE WIND E/W @ 20/1
Race 2
The second race on Monday’s card is a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle and Getabird is the current favourite at 11/8. However, below par performances by some (not all) horses that ran at Cheltenham here on Sunday would be a slight worry for anyone considering steaming in on either Getabird or the next best in the betting Sharjah. With that in mind it might pay to side with something fresher, and The Gunner Murphy looks a fascinating contender for Joseph O’Brien and Mark Walsh.
Back in February I tipped up Tower Bridge to win at Leopardstown at 40/1 for the same trainer and he was stepped straight into Graded company after placing in a maiden hurdle. I don’t think Joseph is the type to tilt at windmills and he wouldn’t be running this fella unless he thought he could be competitive. The Gunner Murphy won well on his debut in a Galway bumper, he was runner up in another bumper at Leopardstown at Xmas and at odds of 25/1 he could give each way backers a run for their money.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: THE GUNNER MURPHY E/W @ 25/1
Race 3
This is another extremely competitive 2m 6f handicap hurdle and regular readers will remember me putting up Kilfenora when he won at Punchestown last time. The form of that race has been franked in no uncertain terms by the 3rd home Delta Work who scored in the Pertemps next time out. A 7lb rise in the weights doesn’t look overly harsh for Kilfenora after seeing what Delta Work did, but the drop back in trip to 22f could catch him out.
Miles To Memphis was 6L behind Kilfenora in 5th that day at Punchestown and he is now 7lb better off with that rival. Unlike Kilfenora, I think Miles To Memphis will be suited by the slight drop back in trip to 22f and he will have no issues on the rain sodden ground. Mark Enright gets on really well with this 9yo son of Old Vic (form figures of 1284325) and at odds of 22/1 I think he looks a cracking each way bet.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: MILES TO MEMPHIS E/W @ 22/1 NAP
Race 4
Thirteen horses will go to post for this 2m 4f Grade 2 Hurdle and it is an absolute cracker of a contest. When you see a horse like Lieutenant Colonel, twice a Grade 1 winner, priced up as the 33/1 outsider it illustrates just how strong a race this is. Willie Mullins is mob handed with no less than seven runners and Paul Townend’s pick Coquin Mans is edging favouritism at 9/2.
At a bigger price perhaps Renneti can repeat last years win in this contest. This quirky but extremely talented 9yo son of Irish Wells hasn’t been seen since finishing 4th in a Group 1 at Saint Cloud last October but his lack of a recent run isn’t that much of a worry as he has a fine record when fresh. Soft ground will pose no problems and at odds of 10/1 he is the each way pick.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: RENNETI E/W @ 10/1
Race 5
Another race and another Willie Mullins trained favourite in Un De Sceaux. This 2m 4f Grade 2 chase has attracted a field of eight and the Ryanair runner up is even money to get back to winning ways. However, he might be vulnerable to something with younger legs and he had a hard race at the festival behind Balko Des Flos. The next best in the betting is 7yo Coney Island and he would be a lot shorter than 13/2 if he hadn’t run such a lifeless race at Ascot in February.
However, he is probably at his best on better ground than he will encounter on Monday and for now he is best watched. The one I like at a price for each way purposes is A Toi Phil. Gordon Elliott’s 8yo son of Day Flight is already a three time Grade 2 winner over fences and he produced arguably a career best on his penultimate start at Thurles. He found it tough going behind Our Duke and Presenting Percy at Gowran last time, but there is nothing of their calibre in this contest and at odds of 16/1 he could go well for Jack Kennedy.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: A TOI PHIL E/W @ 16/1
Race 6-The Irish Grand National
The race that everyone will be going to Fairyhouse to see is the Irish Grand National and at the present moment a maximum field of 30 horses will go to post. Regular readers will be well aware that I have been sweet on Killaro Boy for this contest for some time (read here), but the bottomless ground rates as a slight worry. He has won on it twice so he will handle it, but his run at this meeting last season was a league above anything he had done before and that effort came on good to yielding. I am thrilled he has got into the race though, and he should go off a fair bit shorter than the 100/1 I tipped him up at.
Another one that I think looks overpriced back up in trip off a feather weight is John Ryan’s 11yo Kilcarry Bridge. This fella has been running at trips ranging from 16f to 18f in 2018, a surprising development given the form he showed on his last two starts at 3 miles plus. A 10L hurdle win off 117 (24f hvy) was followed by an excellent 2nd to Road To Respect in a Grade 3 Chase at Punchestown (25f hvy), so the decision to campaign him at shorter trips is a puzzling one. This race could be perfect for him and at odds of 66/1 he is worth a couple of quid each way.
STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: KILLARO BOY E/W (ADV ANTE-POST 100/1); KILCARRY BRIDGE E/W 66/1.
Race 7
The penultimate race on Grand National Day is a 24.5f handicap chase that sees a lot of horses that didn’t make the cut for the big one taking their chances. The one I am sweet on here is Paper Lantern, a 9yo son of Oscar who scored three times for Karl Thornton last season. His last win came off 110 over 3 miles on heavy at Limerick so there are no doubts regarding his stamina or ability to handle the ground.
The first of those three wins came at Fairyhouse (21.5f hvy) with Donagh Meyler on board and he had previously been placed in a 3 mile soft ground chase there. He was given far too much to do when beaten 11L in 4th last time at Limerick off 122 and he races off the same mark again here. He remains 12lb above his last winning rating, but the first time blinkers and return of Meyler are causes for optimism and at 12/1 he should be in the shake up.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: PAPER LANTERN E/W @ 12/1 NB
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