At Cheltenham our stats that matter pieces performed extraordinarily well. We found the first three home in the Champion Hurdle, and three of the first four home in the Gold Cup. As a result, I have decided to have a go at the Grand National, though with 40 horses and some of the most feared fences in racing it would be no surprise were the stats to go out the window. However, God loves a trier as they say and I will attempt to narrow the field using age, course form, weight and price.
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| Plunge horse Baie Des Iles may be just too young. |
I looked at every winner of the race since the turn of the century (18 races) and a pattern emerged. This is a race that very young and very old (relatively) horses struggle to make an impact in. Since 2000 horses that have been aged between 8yo and 11yo have had the most success with 17 wins between them.
The one exception to that rule was Amberleigh House who scored at the grand old age of 12 for Ginger McCain back in 2004. So, the stats suggest that it makes sense to put a line through any horse younger than 7yo and older than 11yo. Some fancied horses fall by the wayside, including ante-post gamble, 7yo Baie Des Iles.
Cut: Gas Line Boy, Double Ross, Carlingford Lough, Baie Des Iles, Lord Windermere, Saint Are, Bless The Wings, Maggio, Raz De Maree.
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| Anibale Fly has never run at Aintree. |
When I studied all the winners since 2000 another clear trend revealed itself. Since that time only 4 of the 18 winners had not run at Aintree before, while 9 (50%) had previous form over the Grand National fences. The other 5 winners had course form, though not over the National fences, so for that reason a line will be put through horses that have never run at Aintree before.
This sees five horses getting the chop, and some of them are near the head of the market. Irish raiders Valseur Lido, Anibale Fly and Total Recall are cut for this reason, as are Chase The Spud and Milansbar. Adding those five to the horses ruled out because of age still leaves us with 26 horses to choose from, and I will try to narrow the field further below.
Cut: Anibale Fly, Total Recall, Valseur Lido, Chase The Spud, Milansbar.
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| Blaklion may be carrying too much weight. |
With a trip of over 4 miles it is an obvious advantage to be carrying a reasonable weight in the Grand National and the previous winners of this race bear this fact out. Since 2000 only two winners carried more than 11st 5lbs and just one carried less than 10st 4lbs.
This suggests that it might pay to concentrate on horses carrying between 10st 4lbs and 11st 5lbs. A trio of well fancied horses are ruled out because of this trend, including Blaklion, Minella Rocco and The Last Samuri. All those horses are near the top of the weights and on the forecast soft ground they might struggle to get home.
Cut: Minella Rocco, Blaklion, The Last Samuri.
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| Tiger Roll looks too short in the betting. |
That still leaves us with over 20 horses to choose from, but the final stat that matters has a dramatic effect. Since 2000 only 2 winners have been priced up at bigger than 33/1 while only 5 horses scored at odds of 12/1 or less.
A slew of outsiders like Tenor Nivernais (150/1), Final Nudge (66/1) and first reserve Thunder And Roses (80/1) are struck out because of their odds, and the well fancied Tiger Roll (12/1) is also a casualty. Eight contenders remain standing now, and hopefully one of those is the winner.
Cut: Tenor Nivernais, Beeves, Virgilio, Thunder And Roses, Road To Riches, Perfect Candidate, Pendra, Childrens List, Final Nudge, Buywise, Warriors Tale, Houblon Des Obeaux, Vicente, Shantou Flyer, Alpha Des Obeaux, Tiger Roll.
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| Seeyouatmidnight ticks a lot of boxes. |
With another 16 horses cut due to their odds, we are left with eight contenders. Vieux Lion Rouge is a doubtful stayer and off a pound higher than when well beaten last year he is ruled out. Captain Redbeard is another one with serious stamina doubts having never won beyond 23f and for that reason a line is put through him.
That leaves us with six, thankfully including my own ante-post fancy Seeyouatmidnight. I think he has an outstanding chance if taking to the fences and his prominent racing style should keep him out of trouble. Regal Encore ran a stormer in this last year and with Richie McClernon in the plate he is another one that could go really well.
Sue Smith won this with 100/1 shot Auroras Encore a few years ago and in I Just Know she has another serious contender. He will love the testing conditions and he looked an out and out stayer when scoring over 30f at Catterick on soft ground. I am not sure that Ucello Conti will get the trip and the same applies to The Dutchman.
I am keeping the faith with Seeyouatmidnight as I think he is well treated, he will relish the ground and he is proven over 4 miles. If Regal Encore is on a going day he could be a huge danger, while I Just Know is another one that has the stamina to figure. Pleasant Company could be Willie Mullins’ best chance of glory, but he may have to settle for minor money. So, now that the stats have spoken all that remains is to see if they are right! Here is hoping they are.
VERDICT: 1. SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 2. REGAL ENCORE 3. I JUST KNOW 4. PLEASANT COMPANY
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