Galway Races 2018: Day 2 Preview and Tips

Race 1

The opening card on Day 2 of the Galway Festival is a 2 mile Listed Novice Hurdle and with just six going to post it is only two places for each way betting. Ruby and Mullins team up with the favourite Exchange Rate and the unbeaten son of Monsun looks to hold strong claims. Mullins also runs French import Pakora but he might prefer more cut in the ground.

Canardier looks overpriced for Dermot McLoughlin.

The one I like is Canardier for Dermot McLoughlin and Andrew Lynch. This son of Crillon has looked a different horse since encountering decent ground and he put it up to a good one in Causey Arch last time. The stiff finish at Galway should play to his strengths and at odds of 5/1 a small win bet is advised. I think he should be half that price.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: CANARDIER @ 5/1

Race 2

Not a race I will be getting involved in. No bet.

Race 3

This 7f Fillies Maiden looks a competitive renewal and Hermosa, a daughter of Galileo and a sister to Hydrangea, is the market leader for Aidan and Donnacha O’Brien. She ran an eye catching race on her debut at the Curragh when staying on from the back for 4th and given how she stayed on, the uphill finish at Ballybrit should suit. She will be hard to beat if improving for that run from the plum draw in stall 1.

The only worry for Hermosa is the ease in the ground as her taking debut effort came on good to firm. For that reason I am going to advise a small each way interest in Gold Memory for the in form Lyons/Keane partnership. She ran a nice enough race on quick ground over 6f at Leopardstown and her pedigree suggests that further and juice in the ground should suit. She could take a big step forward from her good draw in stall 3 and at 11/1 she is the each way pick.  

STEVOS’ SELECTION: GOLD MEMORY E/W @ 11/1.

Race 4

I tipped up two Sheila Lavery horses on Day 1 and while Always Running was outclassed, I thought Natty Dresser wasn’t given the best of rides. I am glad to see that she has booked Gary Carroll for the ride on Burning Question and I think this daughter of Holy Roman Emperor could reward each way support back in trip after a fine effort at Ballinrobe a week ago.

She was beaten a short head by Stormy Tale who she was conceding over a stone in weight to and she was in front everywhere bar on the line. Her maiden run at Cork when 3rd over 7f on soft ground worked out well with the runner up scoring by over 8L in a maiden next time. She has a lot to find on the figures with the market leaders here, but this lightly raced filly looks to be improving and at 8/1 she is worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: BURNING QUESTION E/W @ 8/1

Race 5

This 120k 8.5f handicap is the feature race on Day 2 of the Galway Races and a total of 18 horses will line up hoping for a slice of the big pot. I would love to see Geological run a big race as he is as genuine a horse as they come. I think Turbine has been aimed at this race all year after his fine effort at the Festival last season and he arrives here a well handicapped horse. However, the draw Gods have not been kind and he could find life hard from stall 17.
 

Marshall Jennings deserves some luck after last year.

The one I like in this race is Marshall Jennings, a horse who fell victim to some rough housing in last year’s renewal by the eventual winner Riven Light. Marshall Jennings travelled very sweetly throughout the race but whether he would have won is debateable. However, he would definitely have gone a lot closer without that interference and off the same mark with Tom Madden claiming a handy 5lb, he could gain revenge on Riven Light. At odds of 16/1 Marshall Jennings is my e/w NAP of the day.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MARSHALL JENNINGS E/W @ 16/1 NAP

Race 6

The penultimate race on the second day of the Galway Races is an extremely tricky looking 8.5f handicap. A total of 18 horses will go to post and a valid case can be made for quite a few of them. The one I like at a nice price is Dinkum Diamond for the Slatterys. This son of Aussie Rules is a 10yo now but his cracking run at Leopardstown three runs back showed that he still retained some of his old ability.

He ran well in a much stronger race than this at last year’s festival off a mark 85 when 8th of 16, beaten 8L. He is running off a mark of 67 here and with young Slattery’s claim he is effectively 20lb lower than last year (Killian Leonard claimed 5lb in 2017). He has a nice draw in stall 3, he will love the ease in the ground and at odds of 25/1 he could go well.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DINKUM DIAMOND  E/W @ 25/1

Race 7

The final race of the day is a 7f handicap and I have a small interest in Dance Alone and Mokhalad as an owner. Dance Alone has been an absolute star for us but a wide draw and ease in the ground could conspire against him. Mokhalad has failed to reproduce the form of his sparkling Navan win since, and it is a case of hoping that he appreciates the return to a more forgiving surface. Both will be doing their very best, and once both come home safe I will be happy.

Ishebayorgrey has strong form in the book.

From the plum draw in stall 1 I think Alan’s Pride is a huge danger, especially if more rain arrives. However, it is a long way home up the Galway hill and he could be vulnerable to a finisher. That finisher could well be Ishebayorgrey, a horse I have been keeping tabs on since his fine 2nd over this trip at Leopardstown back in May behind Zorion. That race has worked out very well, he races off the same mark of 77 here and he will have no issues on the ground. At odds of 12/1 Pat Martin's charge is the each way suggestion, even if I won’t be cheering him on!


STEVOS’ SELECTION: ISHEBAYORGREY E/W @ 12/1 NB

Galway Races 2018: Day 1 Preview and Tips

To be honest, I am not usually a fan of mixed cards but Galway is the one exception. As with all the tracks out West it is very well supported by the locals, and it attracts owners and trainers from the four corners of the island of Ireland and beyond. For many it is not about the racing, it is about having the craic with your nearest and dearest and for others it is about imbibing as much alcohol as is humanly possible in a seven day period!

Galway is the biggest festival of racing bar none during the Summer months in Ireland and some high class performers from both codes will be lining up. The handicaps are usually ultra-competitive but there is usually value to be found. I plan on going racing this week for a couple of days at least, so I may not have time to write a blog for every day. Keep an eye on my Twitter and Facebook throughout the week as I will let you know if I fancy anything at a price. Below are my thoughts on Day 1 of the 2018 Galway Races.

Race 1

An uninspiring race kicks off the card on Day 1 of the Galway races and for me, this Novice Hurdle is best left alone. No bet.

Race 2

The second race of the day is a lot more palatable from an each way punting perspective with twenty horses going to post for this 16.5f  80-109 handicap hurdle. A recent tweet from Galway Racecourse revealed the ground had dried out to good on the NH course and with only 3-5mm forecast before racing on Monday it is unlikely to change much. Two horses at big prices who look sure to appreciate the ground are festival regular Afatcat and former Ballinrobe good ground winner Billy’s Angel.

Afatcat could go well for Stephen Mahon.

Afatcat is no stranger to success at this track, winning off 98 in 2015 (16f gd) and finishing a very unlucky 2nd in 2016 off 115. Last year soft ground scuppered his chances, but back on a sounder surface I think he could outrun his odds of 28/1 off 109. He shaped well on his comeback, Stephen Mahon targets races at his local track and after a lean 2017 Festival he will be eager to hit the ground running this year.

Billy’s Angel is another one to keep a close eye on as he ran a very nice race at Bellewstown last time. He travelled well and traded short in running, but a couple of slow jumps at crucial times cost him. He impressed me when winning his bumper at Ballinrobe on good ground and with regular partner Andrew Lynch back in the plate, a small each way interest at 28/1 is advised.

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: AFATCAT E/W @ 28/1; BILLY’S ANGEL E/W @ 28/1

Race 3

It is not often you find flat maidens in Ireland where you can presume that the majority of the field will be going all out to win. However, this 7f contest looks a cracking race to me and I think that at least 6 of the 11 runners will be doing their utmost to be first past the post. Mount Tabora and Third World clashed at the Curragh last time and finished 2nd and 4th respectively with over 4L between them.
 

Power Of Now looked a nice type in the ring at Leopardstown.

Power Of Now was fancied to run a big race on his debut at Leopardstown and I was there that day. He is a striking individual and though he could only manage 4th there could be a lot of improvement to come. His trainer targets races at this  festival too so a big run could be forthcoming. Wargrave was another that was well touted on debut but he could only manage 3rd on heavy ground. The sounder surface at Galway could show him in a much better light.

Zander has shaped well on both starts so far at the Curragh and Down Royal, and the stiff uphill finish at Galway could bring out the best in him. However, at a monstrous price I think Always Running could surprise with a big performance. He caught the eye running a nice race on debut at Leopardstown where he ran better than his finishing position suggests.

He was beaten a similar distance at the Curragh last time, but I think a slight ease in the ground could suit the son of Dandy Man. Sheila Lavery does well with her runners here and I think she could have a decent opening day.  At 33/1 he is the each way suggestion, but Power Of Now is my idea of the most likely winner.

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: ALWAYS RUNNING E/W 33/1; POWER OF NOW WIN 9/2.

Race 4

Frustratingly, for each way players only 15 will go to post for this 7f handicap but plenty of bookies will be offering extra places each way so make sure to shop around. As I stated earlier, Sheila Lavery loves to have horses run well at the Galway Festival and I think she has a right chance in this race with the very well drawn Natty Dresser.
 

Natty Dresser could go well for shrewd Sheila Lavery.

This fella will be having just his 5th handicap run and though he has yet to win from 8 starts he has shown enough to suggest he is capable of winning a race. He has been beaten around 3L on his last three starts on good/good to firm and I think slightly easier ground could aid his cause. The draw Gods have smiled upon him, he was well backed last time out and at odds of 20/1 a big run would come as no surprise.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: NATTY DRESSER E/W @ 20/1 NB

Race 5

The feature race on the opening day of the Galway Festival is this 100k 17f flat race for amateur riders. Limini is all the rage at odds of 7/4 but it has been a long time since she has run on the level and her best flat form has come over shorter. She beat none other than Manatee on her last flat start over 15f in receipt of 4lbs in France and if that form is taken literally she looks chucked in off just 89. A lot has to be taken on trust though, given it is her first run of any sort for over 500 days and at a much bigger price Golden Spear is interesting.
 

Tony Martin's horses are hitting form at the right time for Galway.

This son of Kyllachy is trained by Tony Martin, a trainer who has been undergoing a revival after a quiet spell. He races off a mark of 88 with Maxine O’Sullivan claiming 7lb so he is effectively 6lb lower than when beating Nakeeta (then rated 99, now rated 107) at Leopardstown over 15f. O’Sullivan has a decent frame hitting strike rate for Martin too, with a win and 5 top 4 finishes from 11 rides on the flat. Golden Spear’s form figures at Galway read 212, he is well handicapped, he caught the eye last time and he won’t mind a slight ease in the ground. At odds of 18/1 he is a confident each way selection.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: GOLDEN SPEAR E/W @ 18/1 NAP

Race 6

16 horses will take their chance in this 12.5f 3yo handicap and a case can be made for most. The key to this race could lie with the weather as there is a mix of horses that would like a drop of rain, while others would like to see the ground dry out. For this reason, and given the uncertainty over the weather, I think backing a horse that is versatile ground wise makes sense, and the one I like at a monster price is Flindt for Dot Love and Conor Hoban.

This son of Most Improved’s only win came over 10.5f at Sligo 9 (yld) off a mark of 57 back in May and connections suggested that a switch to hurdling was imminent afterwards. However, he has been kept to the level and his run over this trip next time at Leopardstown on quicker ground was far from a poor one. He kept on well between horses for 5th at Gowran over 10f  on his last start on yielding ground, and a line can be put through his last run at Dundalk. Dot Love had a nice winner with Solar Heat last week, and at odds of 25/1 Flindt could give her more to smile about.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: FLINDT E/W @ 25/1

Race 7

No bet for me in the bumper.

Charles Looks Worth A Cheeky Each Way Bet At Ascot

The big race of the weekend is the King George at Ascot and it looks a decent renewal. Michael Stoute provides the two market leaders and it is hard to split Poet’s Word and Crystal Ocean. Cracksman would love to see a drop of rain and for those seeking a bit of each way value Coronet could go well. She is 2/3 on quick ground, she is a course and distance winner at Group 2 level and she shaped well last time. At 12/1 Coronet represents good e/w value.
 

Charles Molson likes it as Ascot and looks overpriced.

However, at a much bigger price I think Charles Molson could go well in the preceding Gigaset Handicap. 29 horses will go to post for this 7f Heritage Handicap and a case can be made for the vast majority of them. However, when I saw that one of my old favourites, Shady McCoy, was priced up at just 14/1 with Charles Molson at 66/1 I had to abandon Ian Williams’ charge because on Victoria Cup form from 2017, Charles Molson is weighted to get revenge on that rival.

Patrick Chamings’ stable star was running off a mark of 92 that day and with Charlie Bennet claiming 5lb he was carrying 2lb less than Shady McCoy. Charles Molson met plenty of trouble in running and was only a short head and a place behind Shady McCoy in 5th and 2L behind the winner Fastnet Tempest. Charles Molson is now 5lb better off in the weights with Shady McCoy, so he is entitled to turn the form around.

He has run well on three of his four outings at Ascot, and even though he was down the field on his seasonal return in this year’s Victoria Cup he was only just over 5L behind the winner Ripp Orf. Charles Molson was giving him 9lb that day and he is getting 2lb from that rival on Saturday, an 11lb swing. That should enable him to close the gap and now that he is fully fit it would be no surprise to see him do better.

I thought he shaped well in a race that wasn’t run to suit at Leicester last time, staying on well off a slow pace in a contest that developed into a sprint. He should be much more at home in a strongly run race and a big field at Ascot, and Joey Haynes will keep the ride having ridden him for the first time at Leicester. Haynes has a decent record for Chamings with 4 wins and 6 top 4 finishes from just 31 rides.

He has been drawn in stall 20 which is far from a disaster as 9 of the last 10 winners have started from stall 14 or higher. He likes quick ground, he goes well at the track and his trainer is likely to have had this race in mind for some time. He has won off as high as 96 on the all weather so a mark of 90 looks workable (2nd here off 96 in 2015) and at odds of 66/1 I think he could be capable of hitting the frame.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 3.00 ASCOT SATURDAY-CHARLES MOLSON E/W @ 66/1

Fenagh No Forlorn Hope At Leopardstown

I was very frustrated with Duhr yesterday at Sandown, especially after he seemingly broke from the stalls well. Paddy Bradley looked like he lost concentration for a few seconds directly after the start of the race and as a result Duhr found himself detached out the back after a furlong. In fairness to the horse he kept on well enough and wasn’t beaten a huge distance at the finish and if he can buck his ideas up at the start he has a race in him.
 

Fenagh could go well for Eddie Harty. 

Today I like the look of a filly in the 8f handicap at 7.40 at Leopardstown and regular readers might remember me putting her up last season too. Fenagh caught my eye big time on her second start at Chepstow last season over 6f,  staying on strongly to be beaten 2L into 4th in a race that has worked out very nicely. The winner has since been beaten 5L in a Group 2 by Laurens and is now rated 95, while the runner up recently won easy off 84 and is now rated 90.

In fact, 7 of the 8 runners in that race apart from the selection have all won or gone close to winning races since and it is still early days for this 3yo daughter of Dabirsim. She has had three runs since, two in handicap company, and she hasn’t fired. However, she was entitled to need her comeback run on her first start for Eddie Harty at Bellewstown last time and it also looked like she wasn’t comfortable on that tricky track.

I think she may well be better suited by the more conventional track at Leopardstown and she has been handed a nice draw in stall 3. Dusty Foley rides and he will be looking to provide Harty with his first flat winner for some time. Harty went close with a 20/1 shot at Leopardstown last week and if Fenagh can rediscover the form of her run at Chepstow I think she could go well for each way players at a huge price.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 7.40 LEOPARDSTOWN-FENAGH E/W @ 33/1

Don’t Discount Duhr On Handicap Bow At Sandown

I was bitterly disappointed that Sir Chauvelin didn’t manage to grab a place on Saturday, because I think his run deserved it. He had to sit and suffer travelling well in rear 5f out and his fate was sealed when he had to switch widest of all to make his challenge. He looked like he might get involved at the finish but the extra ground he had to cover took its toll and he ended up coming home in 7th. He definitely has a big pot in him at some stage and if he gets his ground, it could well be the Ebor in August.
 

Don't lose the faith in Sir Chauvelin.

Tomorrow’s Irish action comes from Naas and Mamba Noire, who I fancied to go well at the Curragh on Saturday, is turned out again quickly. If she runs she could go well, and I also think Miacomet is overpriced in the 6f maiden. She won a recent barrier trial at Dundalk over 5f in good style and she definitely possesses ability. If her pedigree is anything to go by 6f should pose no problems and I wouldn’t put you off having a small e/w bet at odds of 25/1.

However, my main selection for Wednesday runs in the opening apprentice handicap at Sandown, and I think Duhr looks interesting on his handicap bow off a mark of just 63. This son of Mawatheeq showed glimmers of ability in France and I think his UK debut on the all-weather back in December at Lingfield (10f) was actually a lot better than his finishing position and distance beaten suggests.

He was 9L behind the winner Dash Of Spice (now rated 106) and with a better ride I think Duhr could have finished at least 5L closer. He was given a very tender ride again on his next start back at the same venue by Timmy Murphy when dropped back to a mile, but just like his previous run, it was not an effort devoid of promise.

A slow start meant he could never land a blow at Epsom back in April in a class 4 Novice over 8.5f (gd), but I am willing to put a line through that run. He should be suited by the step back up to 10f at Sandown and his pedigree suggests quick ground should be fine. His jockey Paddy Bradley has had a win and three top 4 finishes from just 9 rides from Ralph Smith so hopefully his booking is a sign that Duhr will be trying.

Interestingly enough, the Smiths went close with a similar type in this very apprentice race at Sandown all the way back in 2011, so perhaps they want to avenge that nose defeat for Croix Rouge! Hopefully that is the case, and if he shows the same ability that he showed on his UK debut at Lingfield in a first time hood I think Duhr could outrun his odds of 33/1. At that price, he has to be worth a couple of quid each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 5.50 SANDOWN-DUHR E/W @ 33/1

Sir Could Strike Back Up In Trip At Newbury

The Irish Oaks is the big race of the day on Saturday and it looks one of the worst renewals in recent history. Only seven fillies have been declared and Aidan O’Brien runs three, including market leader Magic Wand. Sea Of Class travels across the pond to try and break the Ballydoyle stranglehold on the race and she is a fascinating contender. If she stays the 12f trip she should be thereabouts but I won’t be having a bet on the race. I do think Mamba Noire is overpriced in the Minstrel Stakes and at 16/1 I will be backing him each way.

 

Sir Chauvelin deserves a change in luck.

However, my main fancy tomorrow is a horse that regular readers will remember from Royal Ascot when he was an unlucky 2nd for us at 66/1. Sir Chauvelin finished down the field in a race won by his stable mate Euchen Glen at York last time but that was over 10f and he is a horse that needs 12f at the very minimum to be seen at his best. He had previously run a cracker in the Northumberland Plate over today’s trip of 16f when 3rd off 97 behind handicap blot Withhold.

He probably got himself too far back at Newcastle and he had to switch very wide in the home straight to make his challenge. The winner and runner up had already flown but he fared best of the hold up horses and stayed on well to nick 3rd by half a length. He was also a very unlucky loser over 12f when denied a clear run at Royal Ascot and as he proved that day he relishes rattling quick ground.

The 6yo son of Authorized has yet to win over further than 13f on the flat and his last victory on the level came over 12f at Hamilton last May off 94. Given his ability it is amazing he hasn’t won another race since, but hopefully Saturday is the day the drought ends. He is only a pound higher than for his fine efforts at Ascot and Newcastle, George Downing does really well when riding for Jim Goldie (2 wins 2 top 4 finishes from 5 rides in 2018) and at odds of 18/1 I think Sir Chauvelin is capable of going very close if he gets a rub of the green.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 2.25 NEWBURY: SIR CHAUVELIN E/W @ 18/1

Newmarket July Cup Preview And Prediction

The highlight of what has been a cracking week of racing is the July Cup at Newmarket on Saturday. Some of the speediest sprinters on the planet will go hoof to hoof over 6f and this contest is usually thrilling to watch. The absence of Harry Angel is an obvious disappointment as he would have been a major contender, but Godolphin still hold a strong hand with Blue Point and he has been installed as favourite at odds of 3/1.

 

Limato could regain his crown at Newmarket.

Blue Point scored decisively over 5f in the Group 1 King’s Stand at Royal Ascot, staying on well to score by almost 2L from Battaash with Mabs Cross back in 3rd. He is equally effective over 6F but with US Navy Flag in the field William Buick will need to ensure he doesn’t get racing too early. US Navy Flag drops back to 6F for the first time since winning at the trip last September, but the suspicion remains that he is at his best with juice in the ground.

Two of the last three renewals of the July Cup have been won by 3yos, with the 6lb weight for age allowance undoubtedly making a big difference. US Navy Flag gets the allowance, as does Commonwealth Cup winner Eqtidaar. That was a huge step up on the form he had shown previously and this colt needs to prove that wasn’t just a flash in the pan. He looks short enough at 7/1, as does the runner up at Royal Ascot, Sands Of Mali at 9/1.
 

Sir Dancealot is a sprinter on the up.

Dreamfield was the subject of a massive plunge returning from a long absence in the Wokingham and he travelled like a serious horse for a long way, only succumbing by a neck off 103. He is likely to come on leaps and bounds with that run under his belt and while he needs to take a big leap forward to figure here he looks a fascinating contender.

Only one 6yo has won this race in the post war era, but Limato is no forlorn hope to add to the tally for the age group. Henry Candy’s son of Tagula found just Harry Angel too good in this last year and he won it in 2016. He drops back in trip after two runs at a mile this season and at odds of 10/1 he looks a very backable price for each way players. I think he has a massive chance on ground he will love.

Redkirk Warrior has a lofty rating of 121 but he was bitterly disappointing at Ascot and he needs to bounce back in a big way to have any hope here. Brando should run his usual solid race and he was 3rd in this last year. He is well matched with Limato and it would be no surprise were he to produce a big performance given that this race should be run to suit his hold up style.

However, my idea of proper each way value in this race lies with Sir Dancealot, a horse that has won two of his last three and who has produced some cracking efforts in defeat this term. He has virtually nothing to find with Brando on their meetings at Newmarket and York and I think a strongly run race over 6f will really suit him.
 

Brando should get the race run to suit.

He was a course winner last time out over 7F just two weeks ago and he is a horse that seems to take his racing extremely well. At odds of 28/1 he looks well worth chancing each way. Of the remainder, Fleet Review has the form in the book to outrun his odds and Invincible Army will likely run his usual solid race without winning.

I think that this year’s July Cup is going to be run at a furious gallop from the outset and that could bring stamina into play. I think the older horses may have the edge and Limato could be the one to be on. He has finished second and first in the last two renewals and though 6yos have an awful record in the race, he could still possess the necessary turn of foot to score. His career form figures on good to firm ground over 6f read 112132 and at 10/1 he is the pick.

There is very little to split him, Brando and Sir Dancealot on all known form and I reckon that those two can fill the places. I think the younger legs of Sir Dancealot can earn him the runner up spot with Brando chasing him home in 3rd. At odds of 28/1 and 14/1 respectively, I wouldn’t put you off backing either horse each way.

PREDICTION: 1. LIMATO 10/1 2. SIR DANCEALOT 28/1. 3. BRANDO 14/1.

Blucher Looks A Belting Bet In Bunbury Cup

When I sat down to look at Saturday’s card at Newmarket my eye was instantly drawn to a 33/1 shot in the Bunbury Cup. Course form is always a big plus on the July Course at Newmarket and one horse who relishes the track is the Rebecca Menzies trained 5yo Von Blucher. This son of Zoffany hasn’t been seen since finishing well beaten on the all weather at Newcastle back in May but the 71 day break since that run is of no concern as he has run well fresh on more than one occasion in the past, including here.


Von Blucher’s last win came at Newcastle over today’s trip of 7F back in January when he scored by a neck from Swift Approval off a mark of 96. His form has dipped since, but he was run over 6f twice and on easy ground so he has had excuses for the below par performances on those occasions. He was well beaten over 7f at Newcastle last time, but the return to the July course at Newmarket and quick ground could spark a revival in his fortunes.
 

PJ McDonald knows Von Blucher inside out. 

As a result of those poor runs the handicapper has given him a chance and he races off a mark of 95 on Saturday. He was a fast finishing 6th in this race in 2017, beaten just over 3L for the win, off 4lb higher so from a handicapping perspective he should be there or thereabouts. That wasn’t his first good run at this track either. He won a handicap here over a mile for his previous trainer John Gosden and he also ran a decent race in a maiden on the July course as a 2yo.

All those good runs came on good to firm ground and Von Blucher will have his optimum conditions at HQ on Saturday. He has a fine career record when there has been firm in the ground description since turning 3, finishing out of the frame just twice from seven starts, including when narrowly beaten over 7F on the Rowley course off a mark of 98. As I stated earlier the 71 day break since his last run is a positive, as he has form figures of 2111 when returning from breaks of between 50-80 days.

I think that Von Blucher has likely been laid out for this race by his small yard after his fine effort here last season and the booking of PJ McDonald catches the eye. He gets on very well with this gelding and he was on board for his last win. McDonald has 11 wins and 38 top 4 finishes from just 95 rides for Rebecca Menzies and he has ridden 35 winners for the owner John Dance. In handicaps like this horses need a rub of the green, and if Von Blucher gets the gaps I think he is capable of staying on late and running a big race at odds of 33/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 1.40 NEWMARKET (SAT)-VON BLUCHER E/W @ 33/1

Newmarket July Festival Day 2 Preview And Tips

Race 1

Day 2 of the July Festival at Newmarket kicks off with the 7F Silver Bunbury Cup Handicap and with just seven horses declared it will be just two places for each way bets. James Bethell has his string in fine fettle at the minute and I think his 7yo son of Invincible Spirit Truth Or Dare could go well at a nice price. He hasn’t put his best hoof forward on his last couple of starts but he showed he still has lots of ability when beaten a head at Doncaster three runs ago.
 

Truth Or Dare could go well for in form James Bethell.

That effort came off a mark of 87 over 7f on good ground and he gets to race off the same rating today. The form of that short head second to Salateen has worked out nicely too, with the 3rd and 4th home both scoring since. Truth Or Dare should have no problems on the good to firm ground at Newmarket as two of his three career wins have come on fast ground and he has shown some of his best form in smaller fields. He races off his last winning mark, his trainer has been amongst the winners and at odds of 18/1 he is the each way pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: TRUTH OR DARE E/W @ 18/1 NAP

Race 2

The Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes is a 6f contest for 2yp fillies and a total of nine horses will line up. Unbeaten filly Main Edition will likely go off as favourite after her neck defeat of La Pelosa at Royal Ascot and I can’t see the Godolphin filly turning the form around. Angel’s Hideaway was a further 2L back in 4th at Ascot and Pretty Pollyanna was 5th and those two could be set for minor honours again.

The one I am interested in at a tasty price is the Richard Hannon trained Come On Leicester. This daughter of Kodiac also ran at Royal Ascot in the 5f Queen Mary and she stayed on very well for 5th. She has just over a length to find with Gossamer Wings who was 2nd and I think this extra furlong will enable her to turn that form around. She shaped as if in need of further when a beaten favourite at Windsor last time too and I think she is worth chancing each way at odds of 22/1 on her first crack at 6f.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: COME ON LEICESTER E/W @ 22/1 NB

Race 3

The third live race of the day at Newmarket on Friday is a tricky looking 10f handicap and a field of nine horses will go to post. Wissahickon is the current market leader after his win over the same trip at York last time out off 94 but he is 7lb higher here and that could make life a bit harder for the son of Tapit. Zaaki would have gone into a lot of notebooks after a fine effort at Royal Ascot last time and he rates as a danger to all off a pound higher here.
 

Harry Bentley has a good record when riding for Hugo Palmer.

At a big price I think Dukhan could bounce back from a poor run at Ascot last time out over 12f now dropped back in trip. He was beaten a short head by Old Persian off a mark of 87 on the Rowley course (10f gd) here earlier this season and he followed that up with another decent effort over the same course and distance off 6lb higher next time. A slow start didn’t help his cause when beaten 6L at Newbury two runs back and on that run he has 2L to find with Chief Ironside, with whom he is 11lb better off at the weights. Harry Bentley has a decent record when riding for Hugo Palmer and at odds of 22/1 Dukhan is worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DUKHAN E/W @ 22/1

Race 4

The final live race of the day is the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes and on all known form Alpha Centauri is the filly they all have to beat. This daughter of Mastercraftsman has improved massively from 2 to 3 and she romped away by 6L in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, backing up her ultra impressive win in the Irish 1000 Guineas.

She finished 12L ahead of Clemmie at Ascot and 7L in front of her at the Curragh and she can confirm the form with that rival again today. It would be a huge shock if she was turned over at 4/7. With just 7 runners I won’t be having a bet though, and this is a race I will just watch and enjoy. No bet.

Newmarket July Festival Day 1 Preview And Tips

The July Festival at Newmarket is a meeting that is always well worth watching and it gets underway on the July course at HQ on Thursday. I put up Confiding for the July Stakes on the opening day in the hope that he would be declared but unfortunately, he won’t be taking his chance. It is not ideal to start off with a loser before the racing has even begun, but hopefully I can make up for it by finding a winner or two during the meeting. Read my preview and tips for the live races on ITV on Day 1 of the Newmarket July Festival below.


Race 1

The 13f Group 3 Bahrain Trophy Stakes kicks off the action on Day 1 of the July Festival and eight horses will go to post. First Eleven caught the eye when staying on well for an unlucky 3rd in the King George V Stakes off a mark of 91 and the 3/1 favourite looks sure to benefit from the extra furlong here. Giuseppe Garibaldi drops in class and trip after a good 2nd in Group 2 company at the Curragh last time and he could make his presence felt for Ballydoyle at odds of 7/2.
 

Gerald Mosse could get a good tune out of Global Giant.

However, the one I like at a nice price in this contest is the outsider of the field, Global Giant. This 3yo son of Shamardal has progressed with every run this season and I am of the opinion that this trip of 13f will bring out the best in him. He has stayed on well on his last two outings over 8f at Doncaster and 10f at Royal Ascot last time (career best) and on ratings he hasn’t got a huge amount to find with the principals. He is a previous course winner over 7f, he will relish the quick ground and at odds of 16/1 he is the each way selection.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: GLOBAL GIANT E/W @ 16/1

Race 2

The 2yo July Stakes is the second race of the July Festival and my ante-post selection Confiding wasn’t declared this morning. Martyn Meade obviously fancies the chances of his other entry Advertise, and the bookies have installed the son of Showcasing as the 5/2 favourite. He certainly brings the best form into the race having finished an excellent 2nd in the Coventry at Royal Ascot and if he puts up a similar performance here he is the one to beat. He is a worthy favourite.

The unknown quantity of the race is Legends Of War, a son of Scat Daddy who cost a pretty penny at the Breeze-Ups (900k). He made a big impression when spread-eagling the field in a 6f Yarmouth maiden on his debut and on a line through Leading Spirit he should have the measure of Dunkerron. However, at a nice each way price I think Konchek could be worth chancing each way. He has stayed on well over 5f on his last couple of starts, including in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot and I think the step up to 6f could eke out some more improvement.

He scored here on the Rowley course on his debut over 5f and the way he powered up the hill, despite still being green, suggested that an extra furlong would pose no problems. The son of Lethal Force is related to plenty of winners from 6f to 8f so his pedigree suggests that the step up to 6f will suit too. His trainer Clive Cox does brilliantly with sprinters and while he will be disappointed that Harry Angel won’t be taking his chance in the July Stakes, Konchek could give him some compensation here and at odds of 12/1 he is the each way pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: KONCHEK E/W @ 12/1 NAP

Race 3

The first handicap of the week at the July Festival has attracted a maximum field of 20 3yos and this 6f contest looks wide open. It is 7/1 the field and in races of this nature I always favour taking a chance on one at a big price each way for small stakes. The one I am interested in at a monster price is the Mick Channon trained filly Tricksy Spirit, a daughter of Lethal Force. She has only finished out of the frame once at 5/6f on good to firm and that was in a Group 3 over 5f last time out.
 

Mick Channon has his string in fine form.

Tricksy Spirit has been running over 5F in pattern company in recent starts and while her last couple of efforts haven’t been great she went very close in a Listed contest at Sandown three starts back. She stayed on well for 3rd on her last handicap outing off 10lb lower over 6f on soft at Goodwood but her very best form has come on quick ground. She beat Kimifive at Bath earlier this season in a handicap (5.5f gd/fm) by a short head and she is a pound better off with that rival now who is 16/1. The step back up in trip to 6f and return to handicap company could be just what she needs and I think she could outrun her odds of 50/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: TRICKSY SPIRIT E/W @ 50/1

Race 4

Eight horses have been declared for the 12f Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes and Mirage Dancer is the current market leader. This son of Frankel has failed to live up to his lofty reputation so far but he has shaped well on his last couple of starts and his form over 12f is strong. He stayed on well over 10f in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot and the step back up in trip will suit. However, he has come up short in Group company twice before and he has to prove he has what it takes to win at this level.

Muntahaa also ran in the Wolferton last time out and he also stayed on well, finishing two places ahead of Mirage Dancer in 3rd. Jim Crowley keeps the faith with Laraaib (9th in the Wolferton) but Dane O’Neill rode Muntahaa last time and I have huge respect for his ability as a jockey. Muntahaa flopped in this last year which is an obvious worry, but his last run was highly encouraging and back up in trip I think he holds solid each way claims at odds of 8/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MUNTAHAA E/W @ 8/1 NB

Meade Could Make Hay In July Stakes At Newmarket

I was bitterly disappointed by the ride that was given to The Pentagon for us in the Irish Derby. How he managed to find so much trouble in running is beyond me and it seemed that Wayne Lordan was hell bent on finding as much traffic as possible. Once he did find daylight he scorched down the outside when the race was all but over to finish 5th and he is definitely one to keep an eye on. He could turn out to be a Leger horse, but whether he will get his favoured fast ground in that contest is questionable.

 

Martyn Meade holds a strong hand in the July Stakes.

The declarations will be in for the July Stakes at Newmarket tomorrow and I think this has the makings of a cracking contest on Thursday. Martyn Meade has already booked Frankie Dettori for the ride on the market leader and Coventry Stakes runner up Advertise, but I prefer the chances of his stablemate Confiding, if he is declared of course. I was very taken by the manner of the son of Iffraaj’s win on debut at Newbury and the form of that race has been franked multiple times.

Confiding was ridden with supreme confidence by Callum Shepherd that day (6.5f gd/fm), anchored in rear from an early stage. He started to scythe through the field travelling best of all a couple of furlongs from home and when Shepherd administered a couple of smacks of the persuader at the furlong pole he quickened up very nicely and won cosily from Almurr to score by a length, despite showing signs of greenness. The runner up justified favouritism on his next outing, and he wasn’t the only winner to come out of the race.

In fact, the 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th all scored on their next outings, so to me the form looks pretty strong. Meade revealed after the race that Confiding had been pleasing him in his work at home and he was expected to go very well, even if he was sent off at odds of 16/1. The bookies have overlooked him again for this contest, pricing him up at the same odds, but I think he has a much better chance than his price of 16/1 suggests. The slight drop back in trip may be a slight concern, but they will go quickly at Newmarket and that will play to his strengths.

Confiding wasn’t the most expensive purchase as a yearling and he fetched a modest £47k at the sales last September. He is by a quality 2yo sire in Iffraaj and he is out of an unraced Sadler’s Wells mare who is a full sister to useful middle distance performer Scriptwriter. She is also closely related to the dam of Group 1 winner Hunter’s Light. I think that Confiding is near guaranteed to get further than the July Stakes trip of 6f in time, but for now it is well worth persevering with him at that distance given how well his debut win has worked out.

This obviously represents a massive step up in class for Confiding, but his trainer is no mug and I don’t think he is the type to run a horse at this level unless he truly believes they can be competitive. As this is still an ante-post betting heat there is every chance that he may not be declared and those of a nervous disposition might be best off waiting for the declarations to be confirmed before having a bet. I don’t think he will be 16s if he is confirmed as a runner though, and at that price Confiding is worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: JULY STAKES-CONFIDING E/W @ 16/1