When I sat down to look at Saturday’s card at Newmarket my eye was instantly drawn to a 33/1 shot in the Bunbury Cup. Course form is always a big plus on the July Course at Newmarket and one horse who relishes the track is the Rebecca Menzies trained 5yo Von Blucher. This son of Zoffany hasn’t been seen since finishing well beaten on the all weather at Newcastle back in May but the 71 day break since that run is of no concern as he has run well fresh on more than one occasion in the past, including here.
Von Blucher’s last win came at Newcastle over today’s trip of 7F back in January when he scored by a neck from Swift Approval off a mark of 96. His form has dipped since, but he was run over 6f twice and on easy ground so he has had excuses for the below par performances on those occasions. He was well beaten over 7f at Newcastle last time, but the return to the July course at Newmarket and quick ground could spark a revival in his fortunes.
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| PJ McDonald knows Von Blucher inside out. |
As a result of those poor runs the handicapper has given him a chance and he races off a mark of 95 on Saturday. He was a fast finishing 6th in this race in 2017, beaten just over 3L for the win, off 4lb higher so from a handicapping perspective he should be there or thereabouts. That wasn’t his first good run at this track either. He won a handicap here over a mile for his previous trainer John Gosden and he also ran a decent race in a maiden on the July course as a 2yo.
All those good runs came on good to firm ground and Von Blucher will have his optimum conditions at HQ on Saturday. He has a fine career record when there has been firm in the ground description since turning 3, finishing out of the frame just twice from seven starts, including when narrowly beaten over 7F on the Rowley course off a mark of 98. As I stated earlier the 71 day break since his last run is a positive, as he has form figures of 2111 when returning from breaks of between 50-80 days.
I think that Von Blucher has likely been laid out for this race by his small yard after his fine effort here last season and the booking of PJ McDonald catches the eye. He gets on very well with this gelding and he was on board for his last win. McDonald has 11 wins and 38 top 4 finishes from just 95 rides for Rebecca Menzies and he has ridden 35 winners for the owner John Dance. In handicaps like this horses need a rub of the green, and if Von Blucher gets the gaps I think he is capable of staying on late and running a big race at odds of 33/1.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: 1.40 NEWMARKET (SAT)-VON BLUCHER E/W @ 33/1
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