Meade Could Make Hay In July Stakes At Newmarket

I was bitterly disappointed by the ride that was given to The Pentagon for us in the Irish Derby. How he managed to find so much trouble in running is beyond me and it seemed that Wayne Lordan was hell bent on finding as much traffic as possible. Once he did find daylight he scorched down the outside when the race was all but over to finish 5th and he is definitely one to keep an eye on. He could turn out to be a Leger horse, but whether he will get his favoured fast ground in that contest is questionable.

 

Martyn Meade holds a strong hand in the July Stakes.

The declarations will be in for the July Stakes at Newmarket tomorrow and I think this has the makings of a cracking contest on Thursday. Martyn Meade has already booked Frankie Dettori for the ride on the market leader and Coventry Stakes runner up Advertise, but I prefer the chances of his stablemate Confiding, if he is declared of course. I was very taken by the manner of the son of Iffraaj’s win on debut at Newbury and the form of that race has been franked multiple times.

Confiding was ridden with supreme confidence by Callum Shepherd that day (6.5f gd/fm), anchored in rear from an early stage. He started to scythe through the field travelling best of all a couple of furlongs from home and when Shepherd administered a couple of smacks of the persuader at the furlong pole he quickened up very nicely and won cosily from Almurr to score by a length, despite showing signs of greenness. The runner up justified favouritism on his next outing, and he wasn’t the only winner to come out of the race.

In fact, the 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th all scored on their next outings, so to me the form looks pretty strong. Meade revealed after the race that Confiding had been pleasing him in his work at home and he was expected to go very well, even if he was sent off at odds of 16/1. The bookies have overlooked him again for this contest, pricing him up at the same odds, but I think he has a much better chance than his price of 16/1 suggests. The slight drop back in trip may be a slight concern, but they will go quickly at Newmarket and that will play to his strengths.

Confiding wasn’t the most expensive purchase as a yearling and he fetched a modest £47k at the sales last September. He is by a quality 2yo sire in Iffraaj and he is out of an unraced Sadler’s Wells mare who is a full sister to useful middle distance performer Scriptwriter. She is also closely related to the dam of Group 1 winner Hunter’s Light. I think that Confiding is near guaranteed to get further than the July Stakes trip of 6f in time, but for now it is well worth persevering with him at that distance given how well his debut win has worked out.

This obviously represents a massive step up in class for Confiding, but his trainer is no mug and I don’t think he is the type to run a horse at this level unless he truly believes they can be competitive. As this is still an ante-post betting heat there is every chance that he may not be declared and those of a nervous disposition might be best off waiting for the declarations to be confirmed before having a bet. I don’t think he will be 16s if he is confirmed as a runner though, and at that price Confiding is worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: JULY STAKES-CONFIDING E/W @ 16/1