Sun Could Shine At Longchamp

Unfortunately, Navagio decided to go to Haydock instead of the Cambridgeshire. I would imagine connections might regret the decision because looking at how powerfully he travelled, I think a fast run 9f on soft ground at Newmarket would have elicited a massive run and as it turned out, stall 13 would have been a great draw. However, the bottom line is that we did our money, but at least we managed to back the horse that beat him at Haydock.

This weekend it is all about one race. The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. It is hard to believe it’ll be five years since we backed Waldgeist to win this race. We have managed to land a couple of nice places in more recent renewals, including Gold Trip at 50s in 2020 and Sealiway at 40s in 2021.

This year, I am backing a horse that I have had in mind for this race ever since he finished a staying on seventh in the Prix De Jockey Club back in June. Sunway, trained by David Menuisier, may have failed to get his head in front this season but he has a couple of pieces of form that suggest his odds of 66/1 are far too big.

We have already backed him this season, in the Irish Derby at 20s. He ran a massive race to finish second, staying on strongly in the last furlong to finish just 0.75l behind Los Angeles, who is as short as 6/1 for the Arc. Should Sunway be over 10x his price? On his next start in the King George he got hampered at a crucial moment but still ran with credit behind the easy winner Goliath.

Three weeks ago Sunway turned up in the St Leger. Yet again, he was a bit short of room but he ran on well to finish fourth, just 1.75l behind Jan Brueghel, a horse that is now one of the ante-post favourites for the Melbourne Cup.

The way this horse has been running this season reminds me a bit of Waldgeist the year he won this. He has been mostly thereabouts in all the right races and I think if things fall right for him, he is capable of going very close. Ballydoyle are likely to run at least one pacemaker so Sunway should get a solid pace to aim at and he goes on any ground, so it won’t really matter what the weather does.

His brother Sealiway stayed on well for fifth in this race in 2021 and I am hoping Sunway can go a couple of places better at least at odds of 66s. At the prices, he has to be worth a couple of quid e/w.

2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Tip: Sunway e/w @ 66/1

-DaveStevos

Shark Attack At The Curragh

Flying Finn was our only winner on Saturday but she was a nice price at 20/1. Santa Savana really should have placed but got hampered at an inopportune moment. However, it was downhill after that. Unfortunately, Paddy The Squire ended up drawn on the wrong side. It would have been interesting to see how Navagio fared from stall 13, I’d imagine connections regret the decision to go to Haydock. I like one at the Curragh tomorrow at decent odds, you can see who I fancy below.

4.25 – Irish Cesarewitch Handicap (Premier)

With rain forecast tomorrow, the ground could be pretty testing by the time of this race. If it is, I think Enfranchise is capable of outrunning her odds of 33/1 for Shark Hanlon and Gavin Ryan.

This mare is very talented when she gets her optimum conditions. She likes a cut in the ground and she likes a trip and she should hopefully get both of those tomorrow (once the weather forecast is correct). Her form figures on the flat on soft/heavy ground read 221.

The last time this daughter of Invincible Spirit raced on properly testing ground was in a 14f listed heat at Gowran. Gavin Ryan, who is in the plate today, rode and she dotted up by 2l, beating Countess Of Tyrone. They meet again here and Enfranchise is 1lb better off so I’m not sure why she is 33/1 and the Twomey horse is only 20s.

In July this mare ran a blinder to finish fifth off 97 in the QR handicap at Galway on ground that was probably just on the lively side for her. She stayed on nicely and was 7l behind the winner at the line and she races off the same mark today.

I’d imagine her next two starts, over hurdles two days later at Galway and in a Listed heat there over 12f 19 days ago, were runs designed to keep her ticking over ahead of a shot at this race. I’m sure the Shark will be keen to go out with a bang with a big win before his ban kicks in, hopefully Enfranchise can deliver the goods for him at odds of 33/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Enfranchise e/w @ 33/1 (6 places) NAP

2024 Cambridgeshire Handicap Ante-Post Tip

Thank god for good old Commanche Falls. To be fair, Seven Questions ran a cracking race, as did Star Anthem. However, Li Ban wasn’t held up as I hoped and unsurprisingly faded late. It was a tough weekend of punting but at least we managed to avoid the dreaded blank with the NAP.

This weekend there is a quality Saturday card at Newmarket. The race I have my eye on for a little ante-post flutter is the Cambridgeshire Handicap and in the hope that the rain forecast for later this week materialises, I am throwing a few quid e/w at a 100/1 poke.

Back in March, Navagio had his first start for James Horton in the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster (8f, sft). It was a UK baptism of fire for the son of Footstepsinthesand but he ran a massive race on the rain softened ground off a mark of 96.

Not once, not twice but three times he encountered traffic problems, so he did well to stay on for third, beaten 3.5l for the win by Mr Professor. Since then, however, he has failed to hit the same heights. He finished down the field at Newbury on his next start, he was then beaten 6l at Sandown in a mickey mouse handicap and after another nondescript effort at Newcastle, he was given a couple of months off.

On his return from that 71 day break he ran at Ascot (8f) and it looked like a sharpener for a bigger day. He was fresh early but he did run on well near the finish and I think the 9f at Newmarket will be right up his street. His last win, for Ray Cody in Ireland, came over that trip on soft at Gowran last year and he was giving 12lb to the 96 rated runner up.

After his last few runs, the handicapper has given Navagio a real chance. He is now down to a mark of 91, 5lb lower than he was for his fine run in the Lincoln. James Horton has had a couple of winners in the last fortnight, which is a plus, and though Navagio is also entered at Haydock this weekend, I am hoping Horton has been campaigning him with this race in mind.

His odds of 100/1 are more than big enough to warrant a small e/w interest, hopefully the rain arrives.

2024 Cambridgeshire Handicap Ante-Post Tip: Navagio e/w @ 100/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Preview

A bad day at the office on Saturday. Hopefully we get back on track on Sunday, my 2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh tips are below.

1.50 – Bold Lad Handicap (Premier)

At odds of 10/1 I am keeping the faith with Torivega here. Regular readers will know I rate this horse. We have backed him on two of his last three starts, at Royal Ascot where he was given a poor ride and then here in a Premier Handicap where he finished an unlucky fourth. He was too short for the blog last time when unlucky again in third over C&D but he is a just about acceptable 10/1 today.

Robbie Colgan has lost the ride to David Egan and he could be the man to crack the code. The ground should be ideal for him and he will have options from stall 12. If Egan can manage to chart a clear passage on Sheila Lavery’s son of Lope De Vega, hopefully he can gain his first handicap win. At odds of 10/1, Torivega is the e/w selection.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Torivega e/w @ 10/1 (6 places) NAP

2.25 – Blandford Stakes (Group 2)

As I mentioned yesterday, I fancied Rogue Millenium to run big in the Matron Stakes. Connections have decided to go for this 10f Group 2 instead but stable jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle prefers the proven 10f performer American Sonja.

I am going to leave the O’Brien runners alone and instead, I’ll take a punt on Bellezza at much bigger odds. Ger Lyons’ got a lovely winner on the board on Saturday and I am not sure this filly should be such a big price at around 25/1.

Listed Form

The daughter of Siyouni has been running excellent races in Listed company at 10f to 13f without quite getting her head in front. She found just Birdman too good over 13f at Navan in May, Hanalia (re-opposes here) beat her 0.75L over 10.5f at Naas in July and then she was beaten the same distance in third behind The Euphrates and Kinesiology at Gowran later that month.

The Euphrates has since finished second in a G3, Kinesiology was a fine second in a G3 at Leopardstown yesterday so the form is pretty decent. Lyons now tries blinkers on Bellezza and if they can eke out even a tiny bit of improvement, she won’t be far away from a place here. At odds of 25/1, she is the e/w selection.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Bellezza e/w @ 25/1

3.00 – Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group 1)

The worst turnout for this race in recent memory. Just five runners and three of them from Ballydoyle. Bedtime Story is 6/5 and to be honest, I am surprised she isn’t odds on. Lake Victoria also brings an unblemished record into the race and she rates a danger, as does the Ger Lyons filly Red Letter.

The sole UK raider Simmering is an improving sort and she could go well too but she is too short for the blog. I wouldn’t fully discount the rag Exactly given that she gave Bedtime story a race here last time but with just five runners and only two places on offer, this is an easy race to swerve. No bet.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: No Bet

3.35 – Flying Five Stakes (Group 1)

The race of the weekend in my opinion. A huge field of 18 will take their chances in this 5f sprint and it is a truly stacked field. Matilda Picotte is an intriguing runner on her first ever run over the minimum trip. She has an exceedingly high cruising speed over 7f and this looks well worth a shot. If there is any rain, she could make a very bold bid.

Moss Tucker won this last year and he is back to defend his crown. Ken Condon left him off for the summer, presumably to get softer ground later in the season. He ran with credit in the Sprint Cup at Haydock on his first run back but he is another one that might have appreciated a bit more rain. I am going to leave him today and hope that he gets his ground in the Champions Sprint at Ascot next month.

Keep The Faith

We have backed Makarova a couple of times already this season. She was ridden too forward in the King’s Stand and then the rattling quick ground was no use to her in the Nunthorpe. The slightly kinder surface today should be more to her liking and she ran a massive race over C&D when an arguably unlucky third behind Believing in the G2 Sapphire Stakes back in July.

Believing is drawn in stall 1 today and she is the 3/1 fav. There’s lots of pace in the lower stalls and I am hoping Makarova can sit off them early and get a late tow into the race. Tom Marquand looks an eye-catching booking and he has form figures of 1244462 on Ed Walker’s mare (the sixth was a 1.75l defeat in last year’s Abbaye). Hopefully he can conjure another good run out of her today at odds of 20/1.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Makarova e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NB

4.10 – Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Group 1)

Henri Matisse will be popular with favourite backers in this 7f Group 1 for the 2yos. He is 3/3 so far, all at this track. The form of his last two small field wins in G2 company isn’t the easiest to weigh up and I think it is safe to say this is going to be a much tougher proposition.

Aomori City looks an obvious threat, as does Scorthy Champ who only has 2L to find with the market leader on their meeting here three weeks ago. However, I will take them all on with the UK raider, Seagulls Eleven.

Trained by Hugo Palmer, this son of Galileo Gold has won one of his three starts. The victory came second time up in a Haydock novice on fast ground over this trip when he beat Green Storm by over 2l. However, it was his first run in Group 2 company at Newmarket that makes him of interest today.

In the Superlative Stakes he found just Ancient Truth too good, regarded as one of Godolphin’s best 2yos by Charlie Appleby. Back in third in that race was Wimbledon Hawkeye, who subsequently finished a superb second behind The Lion In Winter in the G3 Acomb Stakes at York. I think that form puts him right in the mix in this company and at odds of 12/1, Seagulls Eleven is worth backing e/w.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Seagulls Eleven e/w @ 12/1

4.45 – Irish St Leger (Group 1)

A race which will more than likely be dominated by those at the head of the market. It will probably boil down to a battle between Giavellotto and Kyprios and the value may just lie with the Botti horse but I am happy to just watch and enjoy this one. No bet.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: No bet

5.20 – Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sales Race (2yo)

These sales races are the bane of my life. However, surely one of my selections will run a decent race someday, hopefully this is the day it happens! The one I’ll throw a few pennies at is Bluebelardo.

Trained by Michael Grassick, this filly was never sighted on her debut here over 6f. She was sent off 200/1 for her second start at Naas and she belied those odds with a massive run in fourth, beaten just 1.75L behind the 85 rated Rebel Diamond.

Just 0.75l in front of her in third was Right And True, a 5/1 shot for this. Now, it must be said that Bluebelardo didn’t look the most straightforward of rides. She kept on lugging to the left and Rory Cleary had to take a pull to try and angle her off the rail in the closing stages. Hopefully she has learnt from that experience and if she has, she could outrun her odds of 66/1.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Bluebelardo 0.5pt e/w @ 66/1 (4 places)

5.55 – Northfields Handicap (Premier)

Johnny Murtagh has a fine record in this race. He won it in 2022 and 2020 and he had the fifth and seventh in it last year. The one that finished fifth last year was Take Heart off a mark of 95 and he is back for another go off 4lb higher. Billy Lee rides him but I am going to take a chance on his other runner, Mashhoor.

He was a Group 3 winner over this C&D last season, trouncing Al Riffa by almost 5l. He has a fine record here over 10f overall when he has had his favoured good ground and he looks likely to have his optimum conditions today.

He is the top rated here at 105 but Murtagh has enlisted a 10lb claimer to ease his burden. He’ll effectively be running off 95, he won his last handicap start at Cork off 96. This season hasn’t gone to plan for him so far but he’s been running in exalted company on ground softer than ideal. When he did get his ground at Chester, that track didn’t suit.

He now drops back into handicap company and if he could rediscover the form he showed when winning that G3 here last year, he could lead these on a merry dance. Patrick McGettigan has a win and a second from five previous rides for Murtagh, hopefully he can steer Mashhoor into the money at odds of 18/1.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Mashhoor e/w @ 18/1 (4 places) NB

-DaveStevos

2024 Doncaster Leger Meeting Thursday

I have already posted an ante-post selection for the big one on Saturday, you can see that here. The 2024 Leger meeting kicks off on Thursday and I like a couple of horses at decent odds.

1.50 – Nursery Handicap (Class 2)

Plenty of horses with chances in this 6.5f handicap and one that may have slipped under the radar is the Charlie Johnston trained juvenile, Substitute. A pretty impressive winner on debut at Ripon (6f, gd), she had excuses for her next three starts.

On her second outing, again at Ripon, soft ground was probably not to her liking and she was beaten at odds on. That run didn’t discourage Charlie Johnston from running the daughter of Bungle Inthejungle in the G3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot third time up and she ended up finishing tenth of 16 in that contest.

Handicap Debut

On August 1st Substitute made her handicap debut at Goodwood. She travelled well and was bang in contention a furlong out but the 7f trip probably just stretched her stamina and she ended up sixth of 16, beaten 5l for the win and 2.5l for a place. That effort came off a mark of 79 and she is a pound lower here.

She has had a 42 day break since that last run and I am hoping she has strengthened up a little during that absence. The ground at Doncaster should be perfect for her and the slight drop back in trip to 6.5f is another cause for optimism. I have a terrible record tipping horses from this yard so proceed with caution, but at 20/1 I think Substitute is worth a couple of quid e/w.

2024 Doncaster Leger Meeting Thursday Tip: Substitute e/w @ 20/1 (5 places)

3.00 – May Hill Stakes (Group 2)

My second bet on Thursday is going to be on the Ed Walker trained filly, Miss Tonnerre. By top sire Night Of Thunder, this 300k guineas yearling is a half sister to Pearling Path, the 2022 Chesham Stakes runner up.

She made her debut in mid-July at Newmarket over 7f in a fillies’ novice. She was slowly away, she looked like she was going to be outpaced after 5f but she picked up really strongly in the final furlong and she ran through the line strong to beat Shining Pearl, who had the benefit of a previous run, by half a length.

On that evidence, and on her pedigree, the step up to a mile here should really suit. Walker has booked Tom Marquand for the ride and he is 1/4 with two places when riding for this owner. Ed Walker sent Perfect Prophet out to finish third in this race in 2022 at 50/1, hopefully Miss Tonnerre can run a big race for him here at odds of 20/1.

 2024 Doncaster Leger Meeting Thursday Tip: Miss Tonnerre e/w @ 20/1

-DaveStevos

2024 St Leger Ante-Post Tip

We returned to the winner’s enclosure on Saturday on the TXMarkets blog. Joe Leavy landed the NAP at 12/1 on Grey’s Monument, making all in fine style. Hieronymus drifted like a barge to 80s but made a bold bid as we hoped, holding on for third. Poniros probably lacked a bit of fitness but he placed for us too at 16s. Hopefully we can land another winner with this 2024 St Leger Ante-Post tip.

Leger Losing Its Lustre

It is fair to say this contest has lost a fair bit of its lustre in recent years. In an era where the majority of flat breeders are obsessed by speed, most Leger winners nowadays end up destined to spend their days at stud as national hunt stallions, covering mares for three or four grand a pop.

Kingston Hill is standing for £3k. Harbour Law (£2k), Capri (£2.5k), Kew Gardens (£3k), Logician (£4k) and the 2020 winner Galileo Chrome (£3k) are all in and around that number too. Hurricane Lane won in 2021 and entered stud this year at an eye-popping fee of £6k. Surely there has to be some value in there somewhere…

This Year’s Race

Anyway, onto this year’s race. Predictably, the top few in the betting are Ballydoyle representatives and the home challenge looks to be spearheaded by Ralph Beckett’s You Got To Me and David Menuisier’s Sunway. The latter horse is one I like and I firmly believe he has a Group 1 win in him. Will it be this? It could be, but I’d love to see him in the Arc on testing ground and he’ll be a more suitable price for the blog in that.

The one I like at odds of 20/1 is the son of Camelot, Deira Mile. Owen Burrows has been adamant for a long time that this is a Leger horse and after his run in the Epsom Derby, I can see where he is coming from. We backed him (NB) at 25/1 for 4 places that day and he stayed on from the back for fourth, 7.5L behind City Of Troy.

Course Form

Last year, he ran a huge race to finish a 2.75L fourth behind Ancient Wisdom in the G1 Futurity at Doncaster, so he acts on this track and while he has form on bad ground, his run in the Derby proved he can be competitive on better ground too so it won’t really matter what the weather does.

He’s presumably priced up at 20s because he didn’t win an 11.5f Listed heat at Windsor on his return from an 84 day break. He was clearly too fresh and likely needed the run so that effort doesn’t put me off in the slightest. It was obviously just a prep run for this and hopefully, it will have left him spot on. 20/1 looks far too big a price to me and at those odds, Deira Mile has to be worth backing e/w.

2024 St Leger Ante-Post Tip: Deira Mile e/w @ 20/1

-DaveStevos