I have already posted an ante-post selection for the big one on Saturday, you can see that here. The 2024 Leger meeting kicks off on Thursday and I like a couple of horses at decent odds.
1.50 – Nursery Handicap (Class 2)
Plenty of horses with chances in this 6.5f handicap and one
that may have slipped under the radar is the Charlie Johnston trained juvenile,
Substitute. A pretty impressive winner on debut at Ripon (6f, gd), she had
excuses for her next three starts.
On her second outing, again at Ripon, soft ground was probably
not to her liking and she was beaten at odds on. That run didn’t discourage
Charlie Johnston from running the daughter of Bungle Inthejungle in the G3
Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot third time up and she ended up finishing tenth of
16 in that contest.
Handicap Debut
On August 1st Substitute made her handicap debut at
Goodwood. She travelled well and was bang in contention a furlong out but the
7f trip probably just stretched her stamina and she ended up sixth of 16,
beaten 5l for the win and 2.5l for a place. That effort came off a mark of 79
and she is a pound lower here.
She has had a 42 day break since that last run and I am
hoping she has strengthened up a little during that absence. The ground at Doncaster should be perfect for her and the slight drop back in trip to 6.5f is another
cause for optimism. I have a terrible record tipping horses from this yard so
proceed with caution, but at 20/1 I think Substitute is worth a couple of quid
e/w.
2024 Doncaster Leger Meeting Thursday Tip: Substitute e/w
@ 20/1 (5 places)
3.00 – May Hill Stakes (Group 2)
My second bet on Thursday is going to be on the Ed Walker
trained filly, Miss Tonnerre. By top sire Night Of Thunder, this 300k guineas
yearling is a half sister to Pearling Path, the 2022 Chesham Stakes runner up.
She made her debut in mid-July at Newmarket over 7f in a fillies’
novice. She was slowly away, she looked like she was going to be outpaced after
5f but she picked up really strongly in the final furlong and she ran through the
line strong to beat Shining Pearl, who had the benefit of a previous run, by
half a length.
On that evidence, and on her pedigree, the step up to a mile
here should really suit. Walker has booked Tom Marquand for the ride and he is 1/4
with two places when riding for this owner. Ed Walker sent Perfect Prophet out
to finish third in this race in 2022 at 50/1, hopefully Miss Tonnerre can run a
big race for him here at odds of 20/1.
2024 Doncaster Leger
Meeting Thursday Tip: Miss Tonnerre e/w @ 20/1
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