Unfortunately, Navagio decided to go to Haydock instead of the Cambridgeshire. I would imagine connections might regret the decision because looking at how powerfully he travelled, I think a fast run 9f on soft ground at Newmarket would have elicited a massive run and as it turned out, stall 13 would have been a great draw. However, the bottom line is that we did our money, but at least we managed to back the horse that beat him at Haydock.
This weekend it is all about one race. The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. It is hard to believe it’ll be five years since we backed Waldgeist to win this race. We have managed to land a couple of nice places in more recent renewals, including Gold Trip at 50s in 2020 and Sealiway at 40s in 2021.
This year, I am backing a horse that I have had in mind for
this race ever since he finished a staying on seventh in the Prix De Jockey
Club back in June. Sunway, trained by David Menuisier, may have failed to get his
head in front this season but he has a couple of pieces of form that suggest
his odds of 66/1 are far too big.
We have already backed him this season, in the Irish Derby
at 20s. He ran a massive race to finish second, staying on strongly in the last
furlong to finish just 0.75l behind Los Angeles, who is as short as 6/1 for the
Arc. Should Sunway be over 10x his price? On his next start in the King George he got hampered at a crucial moment
but still ran with credit behind the easy winner Goliath.
Three weeks ago Sunway turned up in the St Leger. Yet again,
he was a bit short of room but he ran on well to finish fourth, just 1.75l
behind Jan Brueghel, a horse that is now one of the ante-post favourites for
the Melbourne Cup.
The way this horse has been running this season reminds me a
bit of Waldgeist the year he won this. He has been mostly thereabouts in all the right
races and I think if things fall right for him, he is capable of going very close.
Ballydoyle are likely to run at least one pacemaker so Sunway should get a
solid pace to aim at and he goes on any ground, so it won’t really matter what
the weather does.
His brother Sealiway stayed on well for fifth in this race
in 2021 and I am hoping Sunway can go a couple of places better at least at
odds of 66s. At the prices, he has to be worth a couple of quid e/w.
2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Tip: Sunway e/w @ 66/1
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