2025 Leopardstown Saturday Preview

We missed the target with our Friday selections. Fortuna Ligna could only manage sixth and unfortunately, Lucid Dreams was pulled up sharply after suffering a bad injury, thoughts go to his connections. I was delighted to see Soul Icon win, hopefully some of you backed him. It can sometimes be worth reading the preview, even if it’s a no bet race. There’s another top quality day of racing ahead of us tomorrow (or today depending on when you read this), check out my 2025 Leopardstown Saturday preview below.

12.50 Leopardstown – South Dubin Handicap (80-116)

We have had a couple of near misses in this race in years gone by with Youngnedofthehill finishing second at massive odds and Music Of Tara really should have won for us in 2022. This year, I am going to take a chance on Jolie Jewel for Galway trainer Brian McMahon with Jake Coen taking off 3lb.

This 5yo daughter of Spider Flight has been learning her trade in handicaps since winning a 19f Cork maiden hurdle in May. Handed a mark of 111 for that shock win, she ran ok in her first two handicaps, finishing fifth at Galway over 16.5f and Ballinrobe over 22f, both on nice ground.

There was a blip when she struggled at Gowran in October but she ran a very nice race on her latest start in this sphere at Navan. She ran on really well for third behind the runaway winner Slane Hill and she had Big Chou (hacked up in a novice next start), In For The Night (second at Fairyhouse next time), One Night Standard (second at Down Royal on Thursday) and Slim Marvel (second at Fairyhouse next start) well behind her.

That form looks alright to me, she has picked up experience in big, competitive fields and she will be suited by a strongly run race, which this will hopefully be. At odds of 40/1, Jolie Jewel is the each way selection.

2025 Leopardstown Saturday Tip: Jolie Jewel e/w @ 40/1 (6 places) NB

2.00 Leopardstown – Savills Hurdle (Grade 1)

Hewick runs here instead of the King George, a baffling decision in my opinion. Why you wouldn’t try to defend your title, especially when the conditions were perfect, is beyond me. If he goes and wins this the decision will probably be seen as being vindicated but at the end of the day, the King George is the race I’d rather win.

Home By The Lee won this in 2022 and heads the betting. He’s a horse I like but he is no banker to back that last win at Navan up. Bob Olinger often flatters to deceive and he didn’t get home when running in this race in 2022. Asterion Forlonge is Asterion Forlonge and Noble Yeats will surely need this run.

Can Rocky Land A Blow?

Sandor Clegane is a very frustrating horse who hasn’t won as many races as his ability deserves. Beacon Edge is nearly an 11yo and that leaves us with Rocky’s Diamond. Trained by Declan Queally, this horse is rated 130 so theoretically, he has no chance. However, he has only run four times, winning twice, and the 4yo showed a good attitude to score on his handicap debut at Gowran (3m, good) in October.

Shane Fitzgerald rides and he was on board for his maiden hurdle win at Limerick in April and he also rode Mozzies Sister to finish second for the yard in a Grade 2 at Limerick on Thursday. This is a very speculative bet, so don’t have the house on, but given the opposition, Rocky’s Diamond is worth chancing each way for small stakes at odds of 33/1.

2025 Leopardstown Saturday Tip: Rocky’s Diamond e/w @ 33/1

2.35 Leopardstown – Savills Chase (Grade 1)

The big one. Galopin Des Champs is the defending champion and he’s favourite to win it again. However, Willie Mullins has had something like two winners from 47 runners so far this weekend so that has to rate as a massive concern for those considering backing this fella at short odds. The same sentiment applies to the second fav, the John Durkan winner Fact To File.

That could leave the door open for Inothewayurthinkin but he ran an extremely poor race behind the aforementioned horses at Punchestown. The one I am taking a chance on is the Mouse Morris trained Gentlemansgame.

I obviously rate this horse as I put him up for the Gold Cup last year and we also backed him at Aintree. He failed to deliver but he then ran a cracker in the Punchestown Gold Cup where he finished just over 3l behind Galopin Des Champs.

My main angle with this horse is the fact he beat I Am Maximus, another friend of the blog, by 8l on his seasonal reappearance at this meeting back in 2022. His crowning moment came last year when he won the Charlie Hall at Wetherby, beating Bravemansgame by almost 2l. Given the form of the Mullins’ yard, I think he is worth chancing each way at odds of 33/1.

2025 Leopardstown Saturday Tip: Gentlemansgame e/w @ 33/1

3.05 Leopardstown – Pertemps Qualifier Handicap Hurdle (145 = 11st 12)

I’m starting to hate these races but the thoughts of a big priced winner keep me coming back for more. The top four finishers qualify for the final at Cheltenham in March (changed from the top six), so those horses that are usually ridden to finish sixth, have to try just a little bit harder.

Usually, when analysing these races I look at the bigger picture. Who wants to qualify but needs to protect their mark? Who needs a win and a rise in the weights to get a run? That approach hasn’t been working so this time, I’m going to just look at the race as I would a normal handicap.

Luckily, I don’t have to look too far for a bet in this race. We backed Toor Khov at big odds when he finished in midfield at Cork in December. I thought he was well treated and he proved me right by running a huge race on his next start upped to 3m1f at Navan a week later, again at big odds.

The bookies have dismissed his chances but with Ethan O’Sullivan’s claim he is effectively 4lb lower than he was at Navan and I think this slightly sounder surface is going to suit him better. When he won his maiden at Tipperary, beating the now 134 rated Grade 3 winner Pray Tell, it was good to yielding. Off an effective mark of 110, Toor Khov is the e/w selection.

2025 Leopardstown Saturday Tip: Toor Khov e/w @ 22/1 (6 places) NAP

-DaveStevos

2024 Kempton, Leopardstown & Chepstow Friday Preview

It was a mixed bag for us on Boxing Day. Our four e/w lucky 15 tips failed to fire, though I thought Depalma shaped ok despite being given far too much to do. We did better in the UK with Good And Clever placing at 33s and our 16/1 NAP Kinondo Kwetu finishing like a train for second. The Welsh National is one of a few cracking races on ITV on Friday, check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday preview below.

1.20 Kempton – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

A trappy enough race and perhaps last year’s fourth Fortuna Ligna can go well. Trained by Anthony Honeyball, this consistent mare has to run from 6lb out of the weights here today. However, she will be ridden by a 10lb claimer who is 2/15 with nine top four finishes when riding for this yard.

With Chad Bement’s claim she’ll be effectively running off 105 and she was running off 110 when beaten 5l in this race last season. Her last win came off 105 at Perth back in April and she shaped pleasingly enough when staying on for third at Ascot on her latest start at the end of last month.

Good ground is fine for her and given how well she ran last year, I am hoping she has been targeted at this contest again. At odds of 20/1, Fortuna Ligna is the each way selection.

2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: Fortuna Ligna e/w @ 20/1

1.40 Chepstow – Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)

The French raider Nietzsche Has is a warm order for this Grade 2 hurdle for the 3yos. It is never easy to weight up French form vs UK form but he has won a Grade 3, he’s been placed in a Grade 2 and a Grade 1 and he does look a nice prospect.

Opec will head the home challenge for James Owen and The Gredley Family. The daughter of Sea The Moon is unbeaten when completing over hurdles (3/3), her sole defeat coming when she fell with the race at her mercy on her hurdling debut at Market Rasen in June. Today will tell us a lot more about her credentials.

It’s hard to believe Hot Fuss is already running over timber after finishing a close fifth in the Windsor Castle at Ascot last year. He’s a talented horse though and it would be no surprise were he to go well. To be honest, this looks like a race that will probably be dominated by the horses at the head of the market so we’ll swerve it. No bet.

2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: No bet

1.55 Kempton – Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)

Constitution Hill put Lossiemouth in her place here on Thursday, can the unbeaten Sir Gino give Nicky Henderson more to shout about as he takes on the Mullins’ winning machine, Ballyburn. The Henderson horse is making his chasing debut, whereas Ballyburn has already had a sighter over the bigger obstacles, winning in facile fashion at Punchestown.

Clearly, both horses are extremely talented hurdlers, it’ll just depend who takes better to this game. Given that Sir Gino has yet to jump a fence in public, you’d probably just favour the Irish raider but as the betting indicates, it is essentially a coin toss. Another race to just watch and enjoy. No bet.

2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: No bet

2.30 Kempton – Desert Orchid Handicap Chase (Grade 2)

Frustratingly, Calico has been taken out of this race so only seven run. If there were three places on offer I’d be backing Soul Icon e/w at 18s with Harry Cobden on board but unfortunately, most firms are paying just two. Unfortunately, this is a no bet race.

2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: No Bet

2.50 Chepstow – Welsh Grand National (Premier)

Finally, a decent betting heat, though I must admit I haven’t backed a Welsh National winner since Notre Pere won it for Jim Dreaper all the way back in 2008. A shocking record, but hopefully this is the year that changes.

So who is going to have to carry the weight of the Stevos’ shillings this year?  Apologies in advance to connections, but I think this stamina test will be right up Stuzzikini’s street. I put this horse up for the Racing Post when he won a 3m2f heat at Sligo back in October. My main angle was that all he does is stay, and he proved me right on that occasion, hacking up by 14 lengths.

Since then, he has run three times, twice in valuable staying handicaps. He ran on well for fifth behind Real Steel in the Munster National in October and then last time out, he finished off strongly again to land the Grade 3 Troytown Chase at Navan in mid-November. He won that off 131 and he is 9lb higher here but he is unexposed at marathon trips over fences and I think he can still be competitive off his UK mark of 140.

Soft ground is absolutely fine for this 6yo son of Champs Elysees and 3m6f around Chepstow could really suit him. He’ll have the assistance of the talented Jordan Gainford in the plate and he’s been given plenty of time to get over his Navan exertions. He’s usually held up, so a degree of luck will be required, but if he gets a clear passage, hopefully Stuzzikini will stay on strongly in the closing stages for a place at the very least.

2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: Stuzzikini e/w @ 14/1 (5 places) NAP

3.00 Leopardstown – Paddy Power Handicap Chase (listed)

A nice and easy finish to the day for us with a 28 runner handicap at Leopardstown. Three Card Brag heads the market at 17/2 but I wouldn’t be rushing to back him given his lack of experience in big field handicaps. The first-time blinkers are an unknown too. The 12/1 second fav Pinkerton, on the other hand, won the 22 runner Galway Plate earlier this year so I’d rather be on him than on the Elliott horse. 

Is there anything at a huge price worth backing? Well given that I fancy Stuzzikini to go well in the Welsh National, I can’t ignore the claims of the horse that chased him home in the Troytown, the John Ryan trained Lucid Dreams.

This horse has form figures of 23 in Grade 3 handicap chases at 3 miles. He was obviously second in the Troytown off 142, and he was third in the Kerry National at Listowel off the same mark. He races off 3lb higher here, so he may be on a tough mark as far as winning is concerned, but if he reproduces his Troytown effort, it should be good enough to get the place money.

The son of Arcadio is a prominent racer, so he should be able to stay out of trouble and that is a plus in a field of this size. He acts on left handed tracks, Daniel King had a sighter on him at Navan over an inadequate trip last month and yielding ground is fine for him. Given the nature of the race, he isn’t one for max stakes but at 40/1, Lucid Dreams is the e/w selection.

2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: Lucid Dreams e/w @ 40/1 (6 places)

-DaveStevos

2024 Cork Hilly Way Chase Meeting Preview

It was a frustrating day for us on Saturday. My two biggest fancies were at Aintree and that meeting fell by the wayside. Touch Me Not ran well to finish second but was a loser for us. Non-runners meant that Zambezi Mix’s third was no use to us either and Solness found the going too tough. Conkwell Legend at least managed to get the place, but only for a late mistake, it could have been even better. Sunday sees the flagship Hilly Way Chase meeting take place at Cork, preview and tips are below.

13.40 – Mares’ Novice Chase (Grade 2)

The top three in the betting set a decent standard here but I’m not sure the soft ground will suit Nara and Zenta jumped poorly last time. With that in mind, I think A Law Of Her Own could be worth taking a chance on here.

Trained by Peter Fahey, this daughter of Lawman has had three starts over fences. She finished a close third in a beginners’ at Galway on her chase debut and she then chased San Salvador home in a Grade 3 novice at Roscommon on her next start.

On her third start she ran with credit in a Listed Mares’ chase at Clonmel over 21f on good ground and while that trip probably stretched her, she still ran well enough to finish third behind Pink In The Park. She split the 132 rated Must Be Obeyed and the 151 rated Allegorie De Vassy in that race so her rating of 123 may slightly underestimate her ability.

Is this a better race than the Grade 3 she contested at Roscommon on her last start at 16f? I don’t think so and if she can repeat that level of form, she is well capable of making an impact here. At odds of 16/1, A Law Of Her Own is the each way selection.

Stevos’ Selection: A Law Of Her Own e/w @ 16/1

2.15 – Hilly Way Chase (Grade 2)

The returning Energumene is short odds to make a winning return in a race he landed in 2021 and 2022. Off for the guts of 600 days, he will surely be a touch rusty on his return and while he is the class horse in this race, it might be worth taking him on. On the figures, Blue Lord, Dinoblue and the fragile Ferny Hollow look the chief dangers but I am going to take a chance on another Mullins’ inmate, Appreciate It.

This 10yo hasn’t won since he landed a Naas novice chase back in January 2023. However, he has run plenty of excellent races in defeat, including a 0.5l second behind Fastorslow in the John Durkan on his seasonal reappearance last November (Galopin Des Champs and Blue Lord behind). He won on his seasonal return in 2022 and overall, his form figures when returning from his summer holidays read 1612 (the sixth coming in the 2022 Champion Hurdle).

The first of those wins came in a maiden hurdle at this venue, when he beat the very useful Master McShee. He has won seven of his ten career starts at 16f-16.5f and finished out of the first three just once (in that Champion Hurdle in 2022). Jockey bookings suggest he is down the Mullins’ pecking order but I think there are more than enough positives to warrant an e/w interest at odds of 16/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Appreciate It e/w @ 16/1

2.50 – Bar One Handicap Hurdle (80-116)

The one I’ll take a chance on in this competitive looking 20f handicap hurdle is Toor Khov. Trained in Stradbally, Waterford by Margaret Flynn, this son of Sholokhov is one of the less exposed runners in this race. He ran very well in his first three maiden hurdles at 16f-20f on varying ground and he got off the mark at the fourth attempt, landing a 24f maiden hurdle at Tipperary back in May.

He beat Pray Tell by 1.25l in that heat, and he was conceding 2lb to that rival. That horse is now rated 127 and is just 8/1 for the Grade 3 Novice Stayers’ hurdle earlier on this card. Toor Khov gets in here off 116 and with Liam Quinlan’s claim, he is effectively running off just 113.

This lad admittedly ran poorly on his return to action on his handicap debut at Gowran two months ago. However, he had excuses (lost a shoe and cut his leg) and in any case, he probably needed the run after a six month break. He placed in a 2m3f (yielding to soft) bumper here on his second start under rules so he handles the track and if he strips fitter for that comeback run, hopefully he can outrun his odds of 25/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Toor Khov e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)

3.25 – Novice Handicap Hurdle (80-102)

A nice and easy twenty five runner get out of jail stakes. As you would imagine, this is wide open and the last five winners have been priced up at 10/1, 33/1, 25/1, 33/1 and 11/1. Knowing my luck, the fav will probably piss home this year but in the hope of another turn up, I am going to take a chance on the Galway raider, Island McCoo.

Now trained by Darren Collins, this horse showed ability in three of his four maiden hurdle starts at Kilbeggan and Roscommon at 16f to 20f for his former yard. He failed to fire when last seen on his handicap debut at Ballinrobe back in July but I am always willing to forgive a horse a poor effort on their handicap bow.

Since that run he has left Barry Murphy and the fact that Collins has travelled down to this venue could be significant. Four of his nine previous runners at this track have finished in the first four and the booking of Cian Quirke is another good sign. He has had four previous rides for the yard and he has finished in the first four on three of them.

Is this horse one for maximum stakes? Most certainly not, but he definitely has some level of ability and if he could repeat the form of his Kilbeggan maiden hurdle fourth over this trip in June, Island McCoo might outrun his odds of 40/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Island McCoo e/w @ 40/1 (6 places)

-Dave Stevos

2024 Becher Chase Ante-Post Tip

Tounsivator got the job done for us at Fairyhouse on Sunday. He was our only winner, but I think we got a half-decent run for our money with all four of our bets. Three of them returned as losers, but an 18/1 winner ensured we didn’t go home empty handed.

Next weekend, the main handicap attraction is the Becher Chase at Aintree. This is one of my favourite races on the calendar. Okay, the Grand National fences aren’t as fearsome as they once were but even so, I still think they take a bit of jumping and when a horse takes to the fences, like Highland Lodge and Vieux Lion Rouge a few years ago, it can pay to back them.

Back in 2022, I put Percussion up for this race at odds of 20/1. He was running off a mark of 130 that day and he finished third, 5.5l behind the winner Ashtown Lad. Laura Morgan’s charge has also run well over these fences over shorter trips and overall, his form figures over the National Fences read 32237. That seventh came in the Topham last month, but I am hoping that was a pipe opener for the main event.

Ideally, I’d like to see some good in the ground description for this lad, especially over this trip, but he does handle testing conditions. His owner’s record suggests he targets races at this track (25% win/60% place) and he also has Fantastic Lady entered, so I’ll probably have a small interest on her too. 

However, we know for a fact that Percussion enjoys jumping these fences and that he stays this far. As I mentioned earlier, I am hoping his last run was a prep for this and while it’s looking like he might have to run from a few pounds out of the handicap if Coko Beach or Chianti Classico take their chance, he is more than capable of being competitive off 130 or lower. At odds of 20/1, Percussion is well worth backing each way.

2024 Becher Chase Ante-Post Tip: Percussion e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NAP

-DaveStevos