Saturday, 7 December 2024

2024 Cork Hilly Way Chase Meeting Preview

It was a frustrating day for us on Saturday. My two biggest fancies were at Aintree and that meeting fell by the wayside. Touch Me Not ran well to finish second but was a loser for us. Non-runners meant that Zambezi Mix’s third was no use to us either and Solness found the going too tough. Conkwell Legend at least managed to get the place, but only for a late mistake, it could have been even better. Sunday sees the flagship Hilly Way Chase meeting take place at Cork, preview and tips are below.

13.40 – Mares’ Novice Chase (Grade 2)

The top three in the betting set a decent standard here but I’m not sure the soft ground will suit Nara and Zenta jumped poorly last time. With that in mind, I think A Law Of Her Own could be worth taking a chance on here.

Trained by Peter Fahey, this daughter of Lawman has had three starts over fences. She finished a close third in a beginners’ at Galway on her chase debut and she then chased San Salvador home in a Grade 3 novice at Roscommon on her next start.

On her third start she ran with credit in a Listed Mares’ chase at Clonmel over 21f on good ground and while that trip probably stretched her, she still ran well enough to finish third behind Pink In The Park. She split the 132 rated Must Be Obeyed and the 151 rated Allegorie De Vassy in that race so her rating of 123 may slightly underestimate her ability.

Is this a better race than the Grade 3 she contested at Roscommon on her last start at 16f? I don’t think so and if she can repeat that level of form, she is well capable of making an impact here. At odds of 16/1, A Law Of Her Own is the each way selection.

Stevos’ Selection: A Law Of Her Own e/w @ 16/1

2.15 – Hilly Way Chase (Grade 2)

The returning Energumene is short odds to make a winning return in a race he landed in 2021 and 2022. Off for the guts of 600 days, he will surely be a touch rusty on his return and while he is the class horse in this race, it might be worth taking him on. On the figures, Blue Lord, Dinoblue and the fragile Ferny Hollow look the chief dangers but I am going to take a chance on another Mullins’ inmate, Appreciate It.

This 10yo hasn’t won since he landed a Naas novice chase back in January 2023. However, he has run plenty of excellent races in defeat, including a 0.5l second behind Fastorslow in the John Durkan on his seasonal reappearance last November (Galopin Des Champs and Blue Lord behind). He won on his seasonal return in 2022 and overall, his form figures when returning from his summer holidays read 1612 (the sixth coming in the 2022 Champion Hurdle).

The first of those wins came in a maiden hurdle at this venue, when he beat the very useful Master McShee. He has won seven of his ten career starts at 16f-16.5f and finished out of the first three just once (in that Champion Hurdle in 2022). Jockey bookings suggest he is down the Mullins’ pecking order but I think there are more than enough positives to warrant an e/w interest at odds of 16/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Appreciate It e/w @ 16/1

2.50 – Bar One Handicap Hurdle (80-116)

The one I’ll take a chance on in this competitive looking 20f handicap hurdle is Toor Khov. Trained in Stradbally, Waterford by Margaret Flynn, this son of Sholokhov is one of the less exposed runners in this race. He ran very well in his first three maiden hurdles at 16f-20f on varying ground and he got off the mark at the fourth attempt, landing a 24f maiden hurdle at Tipperary back in May.

He beat Pray Tell by 1.25l in that heat, and he was conceding 2lb to that rival. That horse is now rated 127 and is just 8/1 for the Grade 3 Novice Stayers’ hurdle earlier on this card. Toor Khov gets in here off 116 and with Liam Quinlan’s claim, he is effectively running off just 113.

This lad admittedly ran poorly on his return to action on his handicap debut at Gowran two months ago. However, he had excuses (lost a shoe and cut his leg) and in any case, he probably needed the run after a six month break. He placed in a 2m3f (yielding to soft) bumper here on his second start under rules so he handles the track and if he strips fitter for that comeback run, hopefully he can outrun his odds of 25/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Toor Khov e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)

3.25 – Novice Handicap Hurdle (80-102)

A nice and easy twenty five runner get out of jail stakes. As you would imagine, this is wide open and the last five winners have been priced up at 10/1, 33/1, 25/1, 33/1 and 11/1. Knowing my luck, the fav will probably piss home this year but in the hope of another turn up, I am going to take a chance on the Galway raider, Island McCoo.

Now trained by Darren Collins, this horse showed ability in three of his four maiden hurdle starts at Kilbeggan and Roscommon at 16f to 20f for his former yard. He failed to fire when last seen on his handicap debut at Ballinrobe back in July but I am always willing to forgive a horse a poor effort on their handicap bow.

Since that run he has left Barry Murphy and the fact that Collins has travelled down to this venue could be significant. Four of his nine previous runners at this track have finished in the first four and the booking of Cian Quirke is another good sign. He has had four previous rides for the yard and he has finished in the first four on three of them.

Is this horse one for maximum stakes? Most certainly not, but he definitely has some level of ability and if he could repeat the form of his Kilbeggan maiden hurdle fourth over this trip in June, Island McCoo might outrun his odds of 40/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Island McCoo e/w @ 40/1 (6 places)

-Dave Stevos

Monday, 2 December 2024

2024 Becher Chase Ante-Post Tip

Tounsivator got the job done for us at Fairyhouse on Sunday. He was our only winner, but I think we got a half-decent run for our money with all four of our bets. Three of them returned as losers, but an 18/1 winner ensured we didn’t go home empty handed.

Next weekend, the main handicap attraction is the Becher Chase at Aintree. This is one of my favourite races on the calendar. Okay, the Grand National fences aren’t as fearsome as they once were but even so, I still think they take a bit of jumping and when a horse takes to the fences, like Highland Lodge and Vieux Lion Rouge a few years ago, it can pay to back them.

Back in 2022, I put Percussion up for this race at odds of 20/1. He was running off a mark of 130 that day and he finished third, 5.5l behind the winner Ashtown Lad. Laura Morgan’s charge has also run well over these fences over shorter trips and overall, his form figures over the National Fences read 32237. That seventh came in the Topham last month, but I am hoping that was a pipe opener for the main event.

Ideally, I’d like to see some good in the ground description for this lad, especially over this trip, but he does handle testing conditions. His owner’s record suggests he targets races at this track (25% win/60% place) and he also has Fantastic Lady entered, so I’ll probably have a small interest on her too. 

However, we know for a fact that Percussion enjoys jumping these fences and that he stays this far. As I mentioned earlier, I am hoping his last run was a prep for this and while it’s looking like he might have to run from a few pounds out of the handicap if Coko Beach or Chianti Classico take their chance, he is more than capable of being competitive off 130 or lower. At odds of 20/1, Percussion is well worth backing each way.

2024 Becher Chase Ante-Post Tip: Percussion e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NAP

-DaveStevos