2025 Leopardstown Classic Trials Meeting Preview

Whip Cracker got badly hampered, as did Rose Prick, and Chic Colombine was simply out for a Saturday stroll. It wasn’t all bad news though. Son Of Sarabi did everything but win the Brocklesby for us at 50/1 and it looked like Pearl Eye did the same but our 33/1 NB got the race in the stewards’ room. Now, the focus switches to the Emerald Isle for the Derby and Guineas’ trials, check out my 2025 Leopardstown Classic Trials meeting preview below.

2.35 – Red Rocks Stakes (Group 3)

Frustratingly two of the three Group 3s at Leopardstown today have just seven runners, a pain for e/w players like ourselves. However, even with just the two places available, I am going to take a chance on Tribal Nation here.

A son of Wootton Bassett, he got off the mark at the third attempt in a Galway maiden last year. That came over 7f on very testing ground but he ran well enough in his first two races on good, so the yielding ground at Leopardstown should be fine for him.

On ratings, with a mark of 90 this horse has to improve plenty on paper to trouble the top two in the betting. Henri Matisse is rated 116 and Arizona Blaze 110, but I suspect those horses would prefer the ground to be closer to good to firm.

Tribal Nation’s dam Indian Blessing won at listed level on good to soft and a G3 on good, which augurs well, as does the fact that Joseph and McMonagle fired in a double at the Curragh on Saturday. At odds of 14/1, Tribal Nation is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.

Leopardstown Sunday Tip: Tribal Nation e/w @ 14/1

3.10 – Priory Belle Stakes (Group 3)

The one that looks well overpriced here, once the ground dries out to good to yielding, is Joe Murphy’s filly Cercene. A big eyecatcher on her Gowran debut (7f, good) she made no mistake second time up at Naas (7f, good). Two furlongs out she still had plenty to do but once the penny dropped she quickened up smartly down the outside and won more comfortably than the winning distance of 2.25l suggests.

That form has been boosted big time in the last week or so. The runner up, Rowdy Yeats, came out and hosed up in a maiden on his seasonal reappearance back at Naas last weekend, after which he was given a rating of 94. Noel Meade said post-race he hoped he was a stakes horse. In third was Bodhi Bear who beat Mathan on his next start, and Mathan won a 7f maiden at the Curragh yesterday by over 3l.

Cercene has been dismissed by the bookmakers because she ran poorly when stepped into G3 company on her final start of last season. However, she hated the soft ground that day and I firmly believe she is a lot better than the rating of 87 she has been handed by the handicapper.

Murphy won’t run her if the ground is too soft, which is a bit of insurance for us, but if the ground is quick enough and she does take her chance, Cercene is well capable of outrunning her dismissive odds of 40/1.

Leopardstown Sunday Tip: Cercene e/w @ 40/1

3.45 – Ballysax Stakes (Group 3)

Adrian Murray pulled off a monumental shock in this race last year with Dallas Star at 50/1. This year, he runs two and I think Tiberius Thunder is worth a second look at odds of 14/1. Yes, it probably wasn’t the strongest of maidens he won at Dundalk over a mile on debut but he ran green and that trip is probably his absolute minimum. He should be well suited by the step up to 1m2f and a slight ease in the ground.

He’s by a top sire in Night Of Thunder who has a 35% winner to runner strike rate with his progeny at 10f-11f (including Economics who won the Champion Stakes in September over this C&D). His dam, Ellthea, won a Group 3 over 7f on soft and her dam, Tropical Lady, won two Group 3s at Leopardstown for Jim Bolger over 7f and 1m2f so there are encouraging signs in his pedigree regarding his aptitude for this test.

The top four in the market here all lack a run so Tiberius Thunder will have a fitness edge, another plus. Murray is presumably running Spicy Margarita to make the pace and set it up for her stablemate. Will he be good enough? That remains to be seen but with odds of 14/1 available, it’s worth taking the chance that he is.

Leopardstown Sunday Tip: Tiberius Thunder e/w @ 14/1

4.20 – 1888 Restaurant Handicap (90 = 9st 12lb)

Since 2011, only two horses drawn higher than 8 have won this race. It can be really tricky from a high draw in handicaps at Leopardstown and this is a race Aidan O’Brien has done well in recently, winning three of the last five renewals. He is triple handed this year and his runners have been drawn 2, 4 and 9. Moore prefers Serious Contender, who starts from stall 2 and unsurprisingly, he’s been made the 9/4 fav.

The one I will take a punt on is a Magnier owned horse but he isn’t trained by Aidan. Wille Browne trains Just Before, who will start from stall 3, and she is bred to be better than an 84 horse. It took her four goes to get off the mark in maidens and her breakthrough win came here over 7f in October. She was 1.5l in front of the now 88 rated Queens Fury, to whom she was conceding 3lb.

On her previous start at Cork she finished third, 4.75l behind the now 102 rated Wemightakedlongway (who runs in the Ballysax) and 2l behind Minnie Hauk, now rated 88. I don’t think Just Before’s comeback run in a rated race at Dundalk, her first try at this sort of trip, was too bad and given how weak she was in the market, she likely needed the run badly and Seamie wasn’t that hard on her at all.

She now returns to the scene of her maiden win, she should strip much fitter for her comeback run and she has a nice draw in stall 3. I usually avoid handicap debutants but she has experience in big field maidens so I am making an exception. At odds of 20/1, Just Before is the each way selection.

Leopardstown Sunday Tip: Just Before e/w @ 20/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos

2025 Lincoln Handicap Stats That Matter

The flat is back this weekend and the big race at Doncaster on Saturday is The Lincoln Handicap. I had a couple of hours to spare this evening so I have decided to use stats and trends to narrow the field and maybe find some e/w value. Check out my 2025 Lincoln Handicap Stats That Matter preview below.

Official Rating

Usually we use age to begin with in these stats based previews but this race is different. With 69 runners remaining, it makes sense to use ratings first as it will enable us to get rid of horses that have no chance of getting into the race. The past 11 winners have been rated between 90 and 102, bar Migration in 2023 who won off 107. This year, horses rated 90 are going to be right on the cusp of getting in so we’ll discount horses rated below 90 and over 102.

At the top of the weights, the 109 rated Witch Hunter and the 108 rated Cicero’s Gift both get the chop. 33 horses remain that are rated 90 or lower and most of them are outsiders. The highest profile casualty here is the hat-trick seeker Naepoint who is as short as 20/1. In total, we lose 35 horses here, leaving us with 34 potential winners.

Cut: Witch Hunter; Cicero’s Gift; Debora’s Dream; Farasi Lane; Limarty Dreams; Naepoint; Our Havana; Arthur’s Realm; Rhythm Master; Surrey Shadow; all the rest rated 86 or less are discounted.

Age

Since the year 2000 this race has mostly been won by younger horses. In the 24 years since the turn of the century 4yos (11) and 5yos (7) have won 18 of the 24 renewals and 8 of the last 9. So, we’ll be focusing on horses that fall into that age bracket.

Quite a few older horses are counted out here, including the 7yo Irish Lincolnshire winner Orandi, who is as short as 12/1. He is one of five 7yos to miss out, as do Sean (8yo) and Beringer (10yo). There are six 6yos that come a cropper here too, including the well fancied Lattam and last year’s winner Mr Professor. We are really making inroads now, the question is what trend will we use next?

Cut: Lattam; Mr Professor; Thunder Roar; Toimy Son; Tolstoy; Two Tempting; Dual Identity; Empirestateofmind; Fantastic Fox; Isla Kai; Orandi; Sean; Beringer.

Weight*

History suggests that you need a horse that isn’t carrying a welter burden, but also one that isn’t carrying a feather weight. Now, it must be said that Mr Professor (8-08) and Migration (9-09) have busted this trend in the last two renewals but usually, you don’t want to be carrying more than 9-04 or less than 8-12. Since 2000, the only exceptions were the two aforementioned horses, Babodana in 2004 and Levitate in 2013.

So, this means that the 25/1 shot Galeron falls at this hurdle. Two of three market leaders just sneak through but Native Warrior, who is due to carry 8-10, is eliminated. He is joined the likes of Arisaig, Myal, Ocean Of Dreams and Tribal Chief.

*If Witch Hunter doesn’t run the weights will be adjusted but we can only go on the assumption he will take his chance.

Cut: Myal; Ocean Of Dreams; Padishakh; Spirit Genie; Tribal Chief; Old Cock; Dashing Darcey; Alpha Crucis; Native Warrior; Arisaig; Godwinson

Recent Form

A recurring theme in the last few years has been the success of horses having their first outing of the season. All but two of the last eleven winners have lacked a recent run and this enables us to narrow the field even further. Our Spring Double bet Whip Cracker does not tick this box so I am hoping it does not hold true this year!

Others that remain who have run in the past month or so are Magnum Opus, Oliver Show, Apiarist, Flying Finn and Talis Evolvere. That leaves us with four final contenders, we’ll try to sort them out next.

Cut: Magnum Opus; Oliver Show; Apiarist; Flying Finn; Talis Evolvere; Whip Cracker

The Final Four

So, four horses remain and two of them are single figure odds. Karl Burke’s Thunder Run and Hamad El Jehani’s Midnight Gun have cleared every hurdle so far so anyone who has backed them ante-post can rest easy.

The other two that survived are bigger prices. Galeron, trained by Charlie Hills, is 25/1 and Orne, who is trained by the Gosdens, is 33s. The former horse spent last season in Australia where he went close a couple of times but failed to win. He could be potentially well handicapped on his 2023 form but if I had to back either him or Orne e/w, I would have to favour the Gosden horse.

Lost Form

He lost his form in the second half of last season but he was running over six furlongs. He stays a mile, as he showed in the Al Rayyan Mile in Doha last March and also when placed in listed heats at Newcastle and Chelmsford.

This horse split the 116 rated Inisherin and the 119 rated Vandeek at Haydock over 6f last May. He gets in here off a mark of 97 and with Luke Catton due to take off 3lb, he is potentially very well handicapped.

Catton is 1/6 for the Gosdens with a further three top 4 finishes and when riding for Al Shaqab he is 1/4 with another two top three finishes. At odds of 33/1, the stats suggest that Orne is worth chancing e/w.

1 Thunder Run 6/1

2 Midnight Gun 7/1

3 Galeron 25/1

4 Orne 33/1 (back e/w)

-DaveStevos

2025 Spring E/W Double

As we head into the warmth of spring, it’s time to have a look at one of the traditional bets that punters love to have a go at. The Spring Double, which concerns the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster and the Grand National at Aintree, has proved to be a tough nut to crack for us in recent years but Dave is going to give it another go in 2025. Small e/w singles and an e/w double recommended.

2025 Lincoln Handicap – Doncaster

The one I have my eye on for this race is the Richard Hughes trained Whip Cracker. Regular readers might remember us backing this horse on his seasonal reappearance in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket (1m1f, good) last April. He ran a blinder to finish a 3.25l behind poor old Jayarebe off level weights and that horse ended up being rated 117 before tragically suffering a heart attack at the Breeders’ Cup.

Ambiente Friendly was almost 3l behind Whip Cracker back in fourth and he is now rated 115. Now, Whip Cracker didn’t go on to reach the same heights as those horses last season but he has demonstrated more than once that he is capable of winning a nice handicap pot and hopefully, it’s this one.

The 4yo son of Cracksman was gelded after a below par, but not terrible, effort in the Britannia at Ascot. After that he raced twice on heavy ground in valuable handicaps at Newbury (1m2f) and Goodwood (1m), finishing third and fourth respectively.

Ground Will Suit

I think he ran well in those two races in spite of the heavy ground rather than because of it and the likely good ground at Doncaster should be more up his street. He had a prep run in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton, for which he was sent off the 9/4 fav. He finished a closing fourth and I believe connections would have been delighted that he ran so well and didn’t win, avoiding a 5lb penalty for this race.

This horse should be well suited by a strongly run race over the mile at Doncaster and on his effort in the Feilden Stakes, he is capable of running to 105+ at least. He gets in off a mark of 97, Finley Marsh is jocked up so hopefully the plan is to run and if he does, Whip Cracker looks well worth backing each way at odds of 20/1.

2025 Spring E/W Double Lincoln Handicap Tip: Whip Cracker e/w @ 20/1 (4 places 1/4 odds)

2025 Grand National – Aintree

I have already put Beauport up for the Grand National at 40/1 and you can read why here. He has become something of a forgotten horse due to punters focusing on horses with more recent form but if he turns up in the same fettle as when routing the field on his last chase start at Ascot, surely he is going to run a massive race. He won’t mind what the weather does either, unlike the well-backed and heavily hyped Hewick who probably won’t even run if the ground turns soft.

We backed I Am Maximus ante-post for the race last season at 25/1 and he hosed up. He has failed to fire so far this year but you can be sure he’s been trained to the minute for this race and he looked like he could have gone around again he won that easily in 2024. I think he could go off favourite and win again but unfortunately, he isn’t 25/1 this year.

Chief Appeals

The one that makes most appeal at a working man’s price is Senior Chief. Henry De Bromhead knows what it takes to win this race and he mentioned the National as a possible target for this 8yo after his October win at Cheltenham (3m1f, good). That win came off 142 and he then headed to the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury for his next run off a 9lb higher mark.

He was ridden prominently when winning at Cheltenham but at Newbury he was ridden a bit more patiently. He got outpaced and looked like he might tail off at one point but he stayed on very well in the final couple of furlongs to get up for sixth so hopefully, this marathon trip will suit.

Best Left Handed

De Bromhead’s horse was sent off at just 10/1 for the Irish Grand National last season but he may not have appreciated going right handed and the bottomless ground probably wasn’t ideal either. It must be said, he has won a couple of poor races going right handed at Punchestown but his standout efforts, by some distance, have come going left handed on his last two chase starts.

He seems to be versatile regarding ground conditions (though good to soft or soft ground would be ideal) and he had a spin over hurdles at Naas last month, which should have blown away any cobwebs.

Even though the Grand National trip is 4 miles plus, the start will be key. Senior Chief is best when racing close to the front so it will be vital that he gets a fair shake when the flag drops. If he does, hopefully he will run a massive race at odds of 33/1.

2025 Spring E/W Double Grand National Tip: Senior Chief e/w @ 33/1 (5 places 1/5 odds)

-DaveStevos

2025 Curragh Lincoln Meeting Preview

Cheltenham went by without us backing a winner. However, we managed to land at least one place on all four days so it could have been much worse. The flat is back in Ireland tomorrow and the feature is the Irish Lincoln. We’ve landed a few nice places in this race in the past, hopefully we can do the same again on Sunday.

2yo Race

Just a quick word on the 2yo race. I won’t be having a bet but I think Adrian Murray will win it with one of his. His Space Blues colt Power Blue has already been backed into favouritism and David Egan rides, so jockey bookings suggest he’s the main hope. However, Lee and Lordan ride plenty of winners for Murray too so if I was having a bet, I’d probably go with Leblon Beach, the longest priced of his three runners. There’s too many unknowns to have a proper bet though, so we’ll stick to the handicaps for today.

2.10 – Nua Healthcare Handicap (80 = 10st)

The ground is drying slowly at the Curragh. It has been dry but cold so there will definitely be cut in the ground and it will probably be tacky. It certainly won’t suit horses that want it rattling quick. Never Shout Never has been running great at Dundalk this year so he’ll be fit and he has form on soft ground. It is no surprise that he is the fav here, especially with his yard in such good form.

One that could go well at a bigger price is Rathbranchurch. Mick Mulvany’s horses often run well on the opening day and this son of Buratino has plenty of course form in the book. He was beaten 0.75l over 5f here last October off 68 and he was beaten 0.5l over 6.5f here off 71 in June.

Rathbranchurch runs off 70 today and Wesley Joyce takes off 5lb. He is versatile regarding ground and he has run well on his seasonal reappearances in the last two years. At odds of 14/1, he is the e/w selection.

2025 Curragh Lincoln Meeting Tip: Rathbranchurch e/w @ 14/1 (4 places)

2.40 – Nua Healthcare Handicap (100 = 10st)

The legend Big Gossey carries top weight here and he can never be discounted at this venue. However, I think Staysound Susie is worth a second look for the Slatterys. First of all, this filly has a decent record when fresh. She was fourth on her debut at Cork in 2023 and she was beaten 2l in a maiden at Dundalk on her return to action in 2024.

The daughter of US Navy Flag has a good record on softer than good too. She won her maiden at Tipperary over 5f on soft ground and overall, her form figures on soft/heavy read 3351. Her last win came in a small field at Cork last October off 76 and while she was well beaten off 7lb higher on her next start, that run may have come too soon.

She was beaten just 1.25l on her only previous C&D run so we know she handles the track and while this is a harder race, she could have more improvement in her being just 4yo. At odds of 16/1, a small e/w interest on Staysound Susie is advised.

2025 Curragh Lincoln Meeting Tip: Staysound Susie e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)

3.45 – Irish Lincolnshire Handicap (Premier)

The one that looks massively overpriced here is the UK raider Flying Finn. Trained by former Curragh based handler Adrian Keatley, this 4yo daughter of Phoenix Of Spain had a fine campaign last year. She started off the season with a second in a heavy ground Catterick maiden and after that, she was given a mark of 66.

Two weeks later she made a mockery of that mark with a 6.5l win at Ripon (8f, soft). A six pound rise wasn’t enough to halt her progress at Doncaster (1m, soft) eight days later and she won again, this time by almost 4l. The assessor took a particularly dim view after that run and Flying Finn was hit with a 14lb rise to 86.

Listed Form

She struggled off her revised mark at Ascot but the ground was good. It was much more like it back on softer ground at Longchamp in May and she picked up some black type in third in that 1m1f Listed race. After a mid-season break she returned to action at Haydock (1m, soft) and won again off 93, beating Earls and Raadobarg by over 5l. Her two subsequent starts weren’t as good but she was possibly feeling the effects of a long season.

The fact she started last season in such good form bodes well for her chances here and while a high draw is usually a plus over this C&D, plenty of horses have won from single figure draws in the not too distant past. I think she looks well worth a try in a race of this nature so at odds of 40/1, Flying Finn is the e/w selection.

2025 Curragh Lincoln Meeting Tip: Flying Finn e/w @ 40/1 (6 places) NAP

-DaveStevos

Stuzzikini To Relish The Cheltenham Hill

So far, almost so good for our ante-post e/w lucky 15. General Medrano and Harbour Lake were both confirmed for their races but Beat The Bat has been left in both the Coral Cup and the Martin Pipe. Hopefully he goes for the latter. However, Colonel Mustard will be heading for the Coral Cup so I am going to put up an alternative selection for our festival handicap e/w lucky 15.

The one I am going to recommend backing at odds of 33/1 is Stuzzikini for the 3m6f NH novices’ handicap chase. Trained by Gordon Elliott, who has won this four times in its former guise as a Grade 2, he is one of three runners for the Meath yard. The first string on jockey bookings looks to be Will Do but I am not sure Jack Kennedy has made the right choice.

Stamina Sapping

Stuzzikini is a horse that I believe may be made for this stamina sapping test. He showed how strong a stayer he is on his penultimate start in the Troytown at Navan, staying on dourly up the hill to beat the likes of Lucid Dreams, Yeah man and subsequent DRF winner Perceval Legallois. Incidentally, Jack Kennedy deserted him that day too.

That wasn’t the first time Stuzzikini finished strongly up a hill. At Galway in October it was a similar story over an inadequate 22f on ground softer than ideal. The farthest trip he has tackled was 3m2f on good ground in a rated novice chase at Sligo, another track with an uphill finish, and he stayed on strongly to win that race easily.  

Sounder Surface

The assessor hiked Elliott’s charge up 9lb for his Troytown win and he struggled off that mark in the Thyestes. However, it was very testing ground that day and while he has won on heavy over hurdles, I believe this son of Champs Elysees is better suited by a sounder surface. He’s had ten starts over fences, so he has plenty of experience and while he pulled up at the Festival last year in the Martin Pipe, the ground was heavy.

I think there could be more to come from this horse over marathon trips and the ground should be absolutely perfect for him here. Sam Ewing has been placed on three of his four previous rides on Stuzzikini, hopefully he makes it four from five at odds of 33/1 on Tuesday.

2025 Cheltenham Handicaps e/w Lucky 15: Stuzzikini @ 33/1 (5 places); General Medrano (Grand Annual, 5 places) @ 20/1; Harbour Lake (Pertemps, 5 places) @ 16/1; Beat The Bat (Martin Pipe, 5 places) @ 20/1.

-DaveStevos

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