Whip Cracker got badly hampered, as did Rose Prick, and Chic Colombine was simply out for a Saturday stroll. It wasn’t all bad news though. Son Of Sarabi did everything but win the Brocklesby for us at 50/1 and it looked like Pearl Eye did the same but our 33/1 NB got the race in the stewards’ room. Now, the focus switches to the Emerald Isle for the Derby and Guineas’ trials, check out my 2025 Leopardstown Classic Trials meeting preview below.
2.35 – Red Rocks Stakes (Group 3)
Frustratingly two of the three Group 3s at Leopardstown today have
just seven runners, a pain for e/w players like ourselves. However, even with just
the two places available, I am going to take a chance on Tribal Nation here.
A son of Wootton Bassett, he got off the mark at the third
attempt in a Galway maiden last year. That came over 7f on very testing ground
but he ran well enough in his first two races on good, so the yielding ground
at Leopardstown should be fine for him.
On ratings, with a mark of 90 this horse has to improve
plenty on paper to trouble the top two in the betting. Henri Matisse is
rated 116 and Arizona Blaze 110, but I suspect those horses would prefer the ground
to be closer to good to firm.
Tribal Nation’s dam Indian Blessing won at listed level on good
to soft and a G3 on good, which augurs well, as does the fact that Joseph and
McMonagle fired in a double at the Curragh on Saturday. At odds of 14/1, Tribal
Nation is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.
Leopardstown Sunday Tip: Tribal Nation e/w @ 14/1
3.10 – Priory Belle Stakes (Group 3)
The one that looks well overpriced here, once the ground dries
out to good to yielding, is Joe Murphy’s filly Cercene. A big eyecatcher on her
Gowran debut (7f, good) she made no mistake second time up at Naas (7f, good).
Two furlongs out she still had plenty to do but once the penny dropped she
quickened up smartly down the outside and won more comfortably than the winning
distance of 2.25l suggests.
That form has been boosted big time in the last week or so.
The runner up, Rowdy Yeats, came out and hosed up in a maiden on his seasonal
reappearance back at Naas last weekend, after which he was given a rating of 94. Noel Meade said post-race he hoped he was a stakes horse. In third was
Bodhi Bear who beat Mathan on his next start, and Mathan won a 7f maiden at the
Curragh yesterday by over 3l.
Cercene has been dismissed by the bookmakers because she ran
poorly when stepped into G3 company on her final start of last season. However,
she hated the soft ground that day and I firmly believe she is a lot better than the
rating of 87 she has been handed by the handicapper.
Murphy won’t run her if the ground is too soft, which is a
bit of insurance for us, but if the ground is quick enough and she does take
her chance, Cercene is well capable of outrunning her dismissive odds of 40/1.
Leopardstown Sunday Tip: Cercene e/w @ 40/1
3.45 – Ballysax Stakes (Group 3)
Adrian Murray pulled off a monumental shock in this race
last year with Dallas Star at 50/1. This year, he runs two and I think Tiberius
Thunder is worth a second look at odds of 14/1. Yes, it probably wasn’t the strongest
of maidens he won at Dundalk over a mile on debut but he ran green and that
trip is probably his absolute minimum. He should be well suited by the step up
to 1m2f and a slight ease in the ground.
He’s by a top sire in Night Of Thunder who has a 35% winner
to runner strike rate with his progeny at 10f-11f (including Economics who won the
Champion Stakes in September over this C&D). His dam, Ellthea, won a Group
3 over 7f on soft and her dam, Tropical Lady, won two Group 3s at Leopardstown
for Jim Bolger over 7f and 1m2f so there are encouraging signs in his pedigree
regarding his aptitude for this test.
The top four in the market here all lack a run so Tiberius Thunder
will have a fitness edge, another plus. Murray is presumably running Spicy Margarita to make
the pace and set it up for her stablemate. Will he be good enough? That remains
to be seen but with odds of 14/1 available, it’s worth taking the chance that
he is.
Leopardstown Sunday Tip: Tiberius Thunder e/w @ 14/1
4.20 – 1888 Restaurant Handicap (90 = 9st 12lb)
Since 2011, only two horses drawn higher than 8 have won
this race. It can be really tricky from a high draw in handicaps at Leopardstown
and this is a race Aidan O’Brien has done well in recently, winning three of
the last five renewals. He is triple handed this year and his runners have been
drawn 2, 4 and 9. Moore prefers Serious Contender, who starts from stall 2 and
unsurprisingly, he’s been made the 9/4 fav.
The one I will take a punt on is a Magnier owned horse but
he isn’t trained by Aidan. Wille Browne trains Just Before, who will start from
stall 3, and she is bred to be better than an 84 horse. It took her four goes
to get off the mark in maidens and her breakthrough win came here over 7f in
October. She was 1.5l in front of the now 88 rated Queens Fury, to whom she was
conceding 3lb.
On her previous start at Cork she finished third, 4.75l
behind the now 102 rated Wemightakedlongway (who runs in the Ballysax) and 2l
behind Minnie Hauk, now rated 88. I don’t think Just Before’s comeback run in a
rated race at Dundalk, her first try at this sort of trip, was too bad and given
how weak she was in the market, she likely needed the run badly and Seamie wasn’t
that hard on her at all.
She now returns to the scene of her maiden win, she should strip
much fitter for her comeback run and she has a nice draw in stall 3. I usually
avoid handicap debutants but she has experience in big field maidens so I am
making an exception. At odds of 20/1, Just Before is the each way selection.
Leopardstown Sunday Tip: Just Before e/w @ 20/1 (5
places)
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