2025 Lincoln Handicap Stats That Matter

The flat is back this weekend and the big race at Doncaster on Saturday is The Lincoln Handicap. I had a couple of hours to spare this evening so I have decided to use stats and trends to narrow the field and maybe find some e/w value. Check out my 2025 Lincoln Handicap Stats That Matter preview below.

Official Rating

Usually we use age to begin with in these stats based previews but this race is different. With 69 runners remaining, it makes sense to use ratings first as it will enable us to get rid of horses that have no chance of getting into the race. The past 11 winners have been rated between 90 and 102, bar Migration in 2023 who won off 107. This year, horses rated 90 are going to be right on the cusp of getting in so we’ll discount horses rated below 90 and over 102.

At the top of the weights, the 109 rated Witch Hunter and the 108 rated Cicero’s Gift both get the chop. 33 horses remain that are rated 90 or lower and most of them are outsiders. The highest profile casualty here is the hat-trick seeker Naepoint who is as short as 20/1. In total, we lose 35 horses here, leaving us with 34 potential winners.

Cut: Witch Hunter; Cicero’s Gift; Debora’s Dream; Farasi Lane; Limarty Dreams; Naepoint; Our Havana; Arthur’s Realm; Rhythm Master; Surrey Shadow; all the rest rated 86 or less are discounted.

Age

Since the year 2000 this race has mostly been won by younger horses. In the 24 years since the turn of the century 4yos (11) and 5yos (7) have won 18 of the 24 renewals and 8 of the last 9. So, we’ll be focusing on horses that fall into that age bracket.

Quite a few older horses are counted out here, including the 7yo Irish Lincolnshire winner Orandi, who is as short as 12/1. He is one of five 7yos to miss out, as do Sean (8yo) and Beringer (10yo). There are six 6yos that come a cropper here too, including the well fancied Lattam and last year’s winner Mr Professor. We are really making inroads now, the question is what trend will we use next?

Cut: Lattam; Mr Professor; Thunder Roar; Toimy Son; Tolstoy; Two Tempting; Dual Identity; Empirestateofmind; Fantastic Fox; Isla Kai; Orandi; Sean; Beringer.

Weight*

History suggests that you need a horse that isn’t carrying a welter burden, but also one that isn’t carrying a feather weight. Now, it must be said that Mr Professor (8-08) and Migration (9-09) have busted this trend in the last two renewals but usually, you don’t want to be carrying more than 9-04 or less than 8-12. Since 2000, the only exceptions were the two aforementioned horses, Babodana in 2004 and Levitate in 2013.

So, this means that the 25/1 shot Galeron falls at this hurdle. Two of three market leaders just sneak through but Native Warrior, who is due to carry 8-10, is eliminated. He is joined the likes of Arisaig, Myal, Ocean Of Dreams and Tribal Chief.

*If Witch Hunter doesn’t run the weights will be adjusted but we can only go on the assumption he will take his chance.

Cut: Myal; Ocean Of Dreams; Padishakh; Spirit Genie; Tribal Chief; Old Cock; Dashing Darcey; Alpha Crucis; Native Warrior; Arisaig; Godwinson

Recent Form

A recurring theme in the last few years has been the success of horses having their first outing of the season. All but two of the last eleven winners have lacked a recent run and this enables us to narrow the field even further. Our Spring Double bet Whip Cracker does not tick this box so I am hoping it does not hold true this year!

Others that remain who have run in the past month or so are Magnum Opus, Oliver Show, Apiarist, Flying Finn and Talis Evolvere. That leaves us with four final contenders, we’ll try to sort them out next.

Cut: Magnum Opus; Oliver Show; Apiarist; Flying Finn; Talis Evolvere; Whip Cracker

The Final Four

So, four horses remain and two of them are single figure odds. Karl Burke’s Thunder Run and Hamad El Jehani’s Midnight Gun have cleared every hurdle so far so anyone who has backed them ante-post can rest easy.

The other two that survived are bigger prices. Galeron, trained by Charlie Hills, is 25/1 and Orne, who is trained by the Gosdens, is 33s. The former horse spent last season in Australia where he went close a couple of times but failed to win. He could be potentially well handicapped on his 2023 form but if I had to back either him or Orne e/w, I would have to favour the Gosden horse.

Lost Form

He lost his form in the second half of last season but he was running over six furlongs. He stays a mile, as he showed in the Al Rayyan Mile in Doha last March and also when placed in listed heats at Newcastle and Chelmsford.

This horse split the 116 rated Inisherin and the 119 rated Vandeek at Haydock over 6f last May. He gets in here off a mark of 97 and with Luke Catton due to take off 3lb, he is potentially very well handicapped.

Catton is 1/6 for the Gosdens with a further three top 4 finishes and when riding for Al Shaqab he is 1/4 with another two top three finishes. At odds of 33/1, the stats suggest that Orne is worth chancing e/w.

1 Thunder Run 6/1

2 Midnight Gun 7/1

3 Galeron 25/1

4 Orne 33/1 (back e/w)

-DaveStevos