I said earlier on Twitter that my record in the Derby is poor but it seems I was being a touch harsh on myself. Last year I tipped Deira Mile for four places at 25/1 (NB) and he got the place so it hasn’t all been bad. I’m going to try to find a bit of e/w value in both races, my 2025 Epsom Derby and Oaks ante-post fancies are below, e/w singles and a small e/w double recommended.
Friday – Epsom Oaks (Group 1)
Just nine fillies remained in the field for the Epsom Oaks
on Sunday and Desert Flower is a warm order to maintain her unbeaten record.
Rated 117, she has won G1s on her last two starts at a mile and now steps up
markedly in trip to 1m4f. Will she stay? The jury is out for me.
Her sire Night Of Thunder was a top miler and his progeny
have a winner to runner strike rate of 53% at 7f-9f. At 12-13f, that drops to
25%. Her dam was a 7f-1m1f winner that failed to stay 1m2f so whether her stamina
will hold out remains to be seen. At the prices, I’d most definitely be a layer
rather than a backer.
Beckett Can Strike
The last time I backed the winner in this race was back in
2013 when Talent won for Ralph Beckett. This year he runs Revoir and while she
isn’t a huge price, I think she represents a bit of value at 10/1. Yes, she was
narrowly beaten by Qilin Queen on her seasonal return in a Listed heat at
Newbury over 1m2f but that was just the second run of her life and at this longer
trip, she can reverse that form.
The assessor handed her a rating of 97 for that near miss so
he thinks she has no chance here. I disagree and I think there could be heaps
of improvement to come from her stepped up to 1m4f. Her sire, French Derby
winner Study Of Man, has already produced a top class performer at this trip in
Kalpana and her dam, Regardez, is a half-sister to the ill-fated Scope, a G1
winner over just short of 2m.
There’s a bit of rain forecast during the week at Epsom so
there might be some cut in the ground but she won’t mind what the weather does.
She won her maiden on heavy and it was good to firm at Newbury so it seems she
handles any ground. At odds of 10/1, Revoir is the each way selection.
2025 Epsom Oaks Ante-Post Tip: Revoir e/w @ 10/1
Saturday – Epsom Derby (Group 1)
There should be a far bigger field in The Derby. Twenty were
left in on Monday and all the money has been for the Ballydoyle Dubawi colt
Delacroix. He has won both starts this season, in G3s over 1m2f at Leopardstown,
and steps up to 1m4f for the first time. If, as expected, Ryan Moore rides, he
will probably go off even shorter than the 11/4 he is now.
He’ll handle soft ground if the forecast rain arrives but it
would be an unknown for the next three horses in the betting. The one I’ll take
a punt on at a bigger price is the John Gosden trained Frankel colt, Nightwalker.
This lad has come up short in three stakes races at 8f-10.5f
since winning his maiden at Yarmouth in September but, looking at how he has
finished off those races, he could be a different proposition stepped up to 1m4f
for the first time. His dam is a half-sister to the Leger winner Logician (who
is also by Frankel) so his pedigree suggests he’ll improve for the longer trip
too.
Outpaced
At York last time in the Dante he was drawn wide and dropped out. He
travelled through the race lovely but got outpaced at the two furlong pole.
However, he stayed on takingly in the final furlong and in the end he just
missed third by less than half a length. He was closing on Damysus and
Wimbledon Hawkeye all the way to the line and over this longer trip, he can
turn that form around.
On his last start as a 2yo in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket (1m, good to soft) he was also outpaced before running on nicely for third, 4l behind Delacroix and Stanhope Gardens. So, he has form with the right horses and while he has had five runs, I’m not sure we have seen the best of him yet.
He
reportedly handled the undulations of Epsom well in a piece of work last week
and I am hoping the step up to 1m4f enables him to display his full ability. At
odds of 25/1, Nightwalker is worth chancing e/w and I am also recommending a
small e/w double with Revoir.
2025 Epsom Derby Tip: Nightwalker e/w @ 25/1
2025 Epsom Derby & Oaks E/W Double: Revoir @ 10/1 &
Nightwalker @ 25/1
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