2025 Prix Du Jockey Club Tip

We backed Cercene for the Coronation Stakes yesterday and the 100s is now gone. She is now a best price of 50s, hopefully her preparation goes smoothly and she turns up in top form (preview here). This weekend, the Prix Du Jockey Club (aka The French Derby) is the highlight and I like the look of a lively outsider at 40/1.

Romanised is in the early stage of his career at stud and he had his first stakes winner last month with Zia Agnese, who landed the Group 3 Prix Cleopatre at Saint-Cloud. That was a 10.5f contest and I think it might be worth taking a chance on another one of Romanised’s progeny, Curragh Camp, as he steps up to that trip for the first time.

Unraced at two because of a minor issue, he made a very pleasing debut on the AW track at Chantilly back in February, winning by 4l over 1m. On his next start at the same venue he was stepped up in trip to 9f and into listed company and he found just Toto Mo Cen too good. He was left with too much to do in that contest but he stayed on well.

Graffard kept him to that distance for his turf debut after a two month break, again at Chantilly, where he took his chance in the Group 3 Prix Du Guiche. Held up again, he was doing his best work at the finish under a very considerate Soumillon ride and in the end he ran on for third, finishing 2.5l behind Cualificar, who re-opposes here and is 7/1.

I think Curragh Camp is capable of getting much closer to that rival over this extended 1m2f. He has run like he is crying out for the longer trip on his last two starts and his pedigree suggests it will be right up his street too. He’s a half brother to a 12.5f winner and a 2m hurdle winner and his dam is by Sea The Stars.

He’s had just three starts so he is open to more improvement than some of his more experienced rivals and if the weather forecast is correct, he should get good ground, which his trainer is sure he needs. He has a nice draw in stall 5 and if Stephane Pasquier doesn’t get too far back, Curragh Camp can make his presence felt at odds of 40/1.

2025 Prix Du Jockey Club Tip: Curragh Camp e/w @ 40/1 (4 places Ladbrokes)

-DaveStevos

2025 Coronation Stakes Ante-Post Tip

We went close to landing four places from five bets at the Curragh on Sunday but in the end, we had to make do with three. One of those places came via Cercene in the Irish 1000 Guineas and while I was going to hold off on tipping her up for this race until her future plans become more concrete, only a couple of firms are still offering 100/1 so at the odds, it has to be worth the risk.

In my opinion, Cercene’s run in the Guineas was far, far better than it looked. Yes, she got the place in third but when tipping her for the race, I was banking on there being a strong early gallop. Instead, we got the opposite.

David Egan was allowed to sit at the front and dictate and he knew it was in his interests to stack them up behind and turn the race into a sprint in the last couple of furlongs. His plan almost worked to perfection but Lake Victoria had the necessary natural speed to reel in California Dreamer in the closing stages to land the spoils.

Cercene raced keenly just off the pace and did exceptionally well to finish best of the rest in third given how the race unfolded. I think she is much more likely to get a proper pace to aim at Ascot and I don’t believe we’ll see how good she actually is until she gets a race run to suit. A bit like Goliath last year. 

100/1 is an insult of a price and if they do go lickety split early, she is more than capable of closing the 4l gap to Lake Victoria. At the prices, Cercene has to be worth chancing e/w, hopefully she takes her chance and gives us a good run for our money.

2025 Coronation Stakes Ante-Post Tip: Cercene e/w @ 100/1

-DaveStevos

2025 Curragh 1000 Guineas Meeting Tips

We failed to land a winner on Saturday but we couldn’t have come much closer. Arabian Dusk and Big Gossey were arguably unlucky not to win, as was the well backed Never Let Go but at least we got some e/w money at 28s, 20s and 33s. Cheers Again got no luck in running, the ground turned against Presence and we had two very frustrating fourths with Electric Storm and Rashabar.

On the upside, almost all of our bets were competitive so the radar is working to some extent. We go again tomorrow, my 2025 Curragh 1000 Guineas meeting tips are below.

1.55 – Marble Hill Stakes (Group 3)

Power Blue looks overpriced at 16/1 in this G3 for the 2yos. A winner of the opening 5f maiden at this venue back in March on soft, he ran to a similar level when getting to within 1.5l of Lady Iman in a Listed race back here earlier this month on good ground.

Ger Lyons’ filly has since boosted that form by winning a Group 3 at Naas and she is very well regarded by her trainer. Power Blue comes up against some unexposed types here, such as Albert Einstein and Andab, both of whom won on debut. However, they are stepping up in class and I am happy to take my chances on the sole horse in here that has already proved he can mix it at stakes level, especially when his odds are 16/1.

2025 Curragh 1000 Guineas meeting tip: Power Blue e/w @ 16/1

2.30 – Lanwades Stud Stakes (Group 2)

The returning Porta Fortuna is the top rated by some way here and if she can reproduce the form she showed at Newmarket in the Falmouth last summer, she should be up to giving weight and a beating to her rivals. However, if the rain that fell on Saturday has got into the ground, she might just be vulnerable.

One filly who certainly won’t mind a bit of an ease in the ground is Naomi Lapaglia. Bought for 475k Guineas in December, this 5yo daughter of Awtaad ran some excellent races in defeat in stakes company for Richard Spencer. It was a similar story on debut for Ger Lyons’ over this C&D when she finished a 2l third in the G3 Park Express behind One Look and Ecstatic.

Can she turn that form around? Well, a few of Lyons’ horses have needed the run on their returns whereas Paddy Twomey’s are usually gun barrel straight so I wouldn’t be surprised if she turned the tables with that rival. Will she be good enough to beat Porta Fortuna? Probably not, but if the ease in the ground causes her to fluff her lines, you never know. At odds of 10/1, Naomi Lapaglia is the e/w selection.

2025 Curragh 1000 Guineas meeting tip: Naomi Lapaglia e/w @ 10/1

3.05 – Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1)

The British raiders didn’t fare too badly yesterday and Royal Rhyme could give them more to shout about here. A five time winner, this son of Lope De Vega looks a shade too big to my eye at odds of 14/1.

His sole win last season came in a 1m2f G3 at Sandown on soft ground on his seasonal reappearance. He failed to fire on rattling quick ground on his next four starts but a return to easier conditions saw him run a fine race to finish third behind Anmaat in the 1m2f Champion Stakes at Ascot.

Karl Burke’s charge made his seasonal return in the G1 Prix Ganay at Longchamp last month. He ran another fine race despite racing a bit keenly and he was beaten just 2.25l by Sosie.

White Birch is a cracking horse and is probably the one to beat but I think the rest of these are much of a muchness and with ground to suit and that sharpener in France under his belt, Royal Rhyme is worth backing e/w at odds of 14/1. Fingers crossed for a good sup of rain for him tonight.

2025 Curragh 1000 Guineas meeting tip: Royal Rhyme e/w @ 14/1

3.40 – Irish 1000 Guineas (Group 1)

We have already bet Cercene for this race and she’s on the drift. I can’t believe she is 50s in a place now and I’ll be going in again at those odds.

As I mentioned in my original preview for this race, I think Tamam Desert has the potential to rate much higher than a 90 filly.

By Sea The Moon, her dam is a half-sister to Banimpire, a high class 3yo for Jim Bolger who won the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot a few years back. That filly ran well to finish a 2.25l fifth in the Irish 1000 Guineas in 2011 so Tamam Desert has the pedigree, but does she have the ability?

I’m probably clutching at straws here but this filly has been on my radar ever since her debut. She looked a good horse that day despite finishing midfield and she managed to win at Galway second time up despite displaying plenty of greenness.

Shane Foley gave her something of an educational ride on her seasonal comeback in a 10.5f G3 at Naas, her first try in stakes company. It reminded me of the ride he gave Romanised at the same venue before he went on to cause a massive shock in the 2000 Guineas.

I think dropping back to 1m might suit this filly and while Cercene is my main hope, I am going to have a half-stakes e/w bet on Tamam Desert too at 150/1. Hopefully at least one of them can hit the frame.

2025 Curragh 1000 Guineas meeting tip: Tamam Desert 0.5pt e/w @ 150/1; Cercene already advised @ 25/1

-DaveStevos

2025 Curragh Saturday Tips

I have already posted a few e/w bets for Saturday on the TXMarkets blog, click here to see them. I also like a couple more bets at big odds at the Curragh tomorrow. See who I am backing below.

1.20 – Irish EBF Maiden (2yo)

Usually, I wouldn’t go near a maiden on a Saturday but I can’t resist having a go at Cool Azul in the opener at the Curragh. Andy Oliver has had only one juvenile runner this season and it ran poorly at Naas but he had a 2-3 with two first time out horses in a 3yo maiden at Navan last weekend and this horse is bred to be a speedy 2yo.

He is by the upwardly mobile sire Blue Point and out of an Iffraaj dam that won as a 2yo and went close first time out. His half-brother Last Crusader won on debut and was listed placed as a 2yo and his grand-dam is a half-sister to a 2yo Listed winner.

Billy Lee gets the leg up on Cool Azul and he is 10/80 with 21 top 4 finishes when riding 2yos for Oliver. Most of this yard’s 2yo winners have come at Dundalk but he’s had six at the Curragh and last season he had a 50/1 winner in the 2yo race on the Friday of this meeting. At 33/1, Cool Azul is worth taking a small chance on e/w.

2025 Curragh Saturday Tip: Cool Azul 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1

2.30 – Tulfarris Hotel Handicap (Premier)

He has to be forgiven a trio of below par runs this season but if he can rediscover the sort of form he was in this time last year, Cheers Again is surely capable of outrunning his odds of 25/1 effectively running off a mark of 75.

This horse first came to my attention when I was working for my other gig. I tipped him up for his penultimate start at Cork and he was backed off the boards before running poorly. The way he was ridden (prominently) suggested that connections had another day in mind and in hindsight, I should have known they’d more than likely be targeting a race at this venue.

A year ago, in the Emerald Mile on this card, Cheers Again was ridden more patiently but he endured a nightmare passage between the 2f and 1f markers. When he eventually got daylight he stayed on strongly for third but the leaders had flown. He was beaten 1.75l for the win off 89, he is effectively 15lb lower now and he looks well worth a go over this 1m2f trip.

At odds of 25/1, hopefully Cheers Again can hit the frame.

2025 Curragh Saturday Tip: Cheers Again e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)

4.15 – Emerald Mile Handicap (Premier)

Now that he is back on better ground for the first time this season, maybe Presence can outrun her long odds for Jessie Harrington and Keithen Kennedy.

The 4yo daughter of New Bay has struggled both starts this season on soft, over 1m here and over 1m2f at Cork. However, the last time she ran over 1m on good ground was at this track last October and she hacked up by 3.25l off a mark of 74.

After that run she was hiked up 9lb and she just missed out on black type in a 1m Listed heat at Naas, finishing fourth of 16 and beaten just 2.75l for the win. The handicapper raised her to 92 for that run but after her two poor runs this term, she is back down to 88 and with her rider’s claim, she is effectively running off 83.

Her career form figures on yielding or quicker read 34421 and she should get her favoured underfoot conditions here. At odds of 33/1, Presence is worth chancing e/w.

2025 Curragh & Haydock Saturday Tip: Presence e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos

2025 Irish 1000 & 2000 Guineas Tips

We managed to find another nice winner at the weekend with Eydon at 16s. This weekend is one of my favourite of the flat season with the Irish 1000 & 2000 Guineas at the Curragh. I have decided to post two ante-post selections before declarations for the 2000 tomorrow, find out who I am backing below.

2025 Irish 2000 Guineas

First up on Saturday are the colts and the one that stands out like a sore thumb is Rashabar. Odds of 20/1 about the British raider look very generous to me given the level of form he has shown. A shock winner of the Coventry Stakes at Ascot last year, he more than proved that was no fluke in his subsequent 2yo starts.

At Deauville in the 6f Prix Morny he pushed Whistlejacket the whole way. He coped well with the step up to 7f on his final 2yo start at Longchamp in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere when just a neck behind Camille Pissarro who has since finished third in the French Guineas. Behind him in fourth was Field Of Gold, the 4/5 fav here and runner up at Newmarket in the English 2000 Guineas last time out. Solid form.

On his seasonal return Rashabar was a neck behind Jonquil in the Greenham and he was beaten a head by Henri Matisse at Longchamp in the French Guineas. How Rashabar is such a big price is a head-scratcher. Yes, he is untried at a mile but I can’t see why he won’t get it. He’s by Holy Roman Emperor, the sire of the 2019 winner Romanised and his Camelot dam is a half to two 1m6f winners.

At odds of 20/1, Rashabar looks a cracking e/w bet.

2025 Irish 2000 Guineas Tip: Rashabar e/w @ 20/1

2025 Irish 1000 Guineas

The fillies take centre stage on Sunday and I am torn between two. Ever since her debut at Leopardstown I’ve thought Tamam Desert was a high-class filly. She may have finished tenth but the way she finished off her race suggested she had lots of ability. She won a maiden at Galway on her second start, overcoming greenness and her run on her seasonal return in a Naas listed heat did not dampen my enthusiasm for her.

I might back her on the day if there are extra places on offer but I have thought Cercene was an ideal type for this race ever since her maiden win at Naas last September and she has run crackers on both outings this term.

On her seasonal reappearance at Leopardstown over 7f (we backed her) she met trouble in running and flew home to finish third, just 1.75l behind Swelter, the 4/1 second favourite here. If that race were over 1m, she would have beaten her.

The daughter of Australia, whose dam is a half-sister to the dam of the top class miler Mohaather, stepped up to a mile at this venue on her next start in the G3 Athasi Stakes. She was a bit keen early which didn’t help but she stayed on well to get back up for second, finishing 0.5l behind the winner Atsila.

If Cercene gets a strong early pace she will hopefully settle better. I think she has a very nice turn of foot and I can see her staying on fast and late in the final furlong. On that run behind Swelter she looks massively overpriced at 25/1 and at those odds, she has to be worth chancing e/w.

2025 Irish 1000 Guineas Tip: Cercene e/w @ 25/1; I am also recommending a small e/w double on Cercene and Rashabar.

-DaveStevos

2025 York Dante Meeting Thursday Preview

Rousing Encore landed the NB in fine style on Wednesday. However, the other three horses were bitterly disappointing so we had to make do with just the one winner. Hopefully we can add to it on Day 2. My 2025 York Dante Meeting Thursday preview and tips are below.

2.10 – Lindum York Handicap (Class 2)

The one I like at a big price in this sprint is the speedy Tees Spirit. Trained by Adrian Nicholls, this horse is a very talented performer on his day. A nine time winner, he won three times last season, all at five furlongs on fast ground.

He ran in this race last season when ridden by Mia Nicholls and he was beaten just 2.25l off a mark of 99. She was taking off 5lb so he was effectively running off 94, with Jack Nicholls taking off 7lb this time he is effectively a pound lower.

Jack has a fine record when riding for his Dad. He’s had twelve rides resulting in three wins and another six top four finishes. Yes, it’s a small sample size but so far, he has hit the frame in 75% of his rides for the yard. A recent spin at Ripon should have blown away any cobwebs, he’s nicely drawn and with five places on offer, Tees Spirit is worth chancing e/w at odds of 25/1.

2025 York Dante Meeting Thursday Tip: Tees Spirit e/w @ 25/1 (5 places) NAP

2.42 – Hambleton Handicap (Class 2)

Stanage is interesting at a price in this 1m handicap. Trained by Mick Easterby, who loves having winners on the Knavesmire, this son of Kingman disappointed on his last start at Newmarket. However, the drop to 6f was not in his favour and he had previously run really well over 7f on his first two starts for the yard.

In April he was beaten just 1.25l at the same venue off 87 over 7f and on his stable debut in March, he won at 25/1 over 7f at Doncaster in a first time hood and that goes back on for the first time since today.

Stanage went close in a 1m Windsor maiden on quick ground when trained by the Gosdens. His dam won at a mile and his brother Coppice won at a mile so there could be more to come at this trip. At odds of 16/1, Stanage is the e/w selection.

2025 York Dante Meeting Thursday Tip: Stanage e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)

3.13 – Middleton Stakes (Group 2)

Royal Dress was a money spinner for us last year and it is notable that Ben Coen has come over to resurrect their partnership. He gave her a peach when winning on her seasonal reappearance last season when we were on at 33/1. She has won first time up for the last two seasons but her very best form has come on ground with a bit of juice in it and her record on good to firm does not inspire confidence.

To be honest, it is hard to look past the claims of the top three or four in the market. See The Fire won over 9f on fast ground last year and both Beautiful Love and Nakheel have rock solid stakes form in the book. They’ll probably fight it out for the win so I’m happy to swerve this. No bet.

2025 York Dante Meeting Thursday Tip: No bet

3.45 – Dante Stakes (Group 2)

Ballydoyle won yet another stakes race with Whirl on Day 1 and The Lion In Winter is a short price to add another. A G3 winner over 7f here when last seen in August (Wimbledon Hawkeye second), he should be suited by the step up to 10.5f and his rivals will be hoping that he needs this run.

He is up against Wimbledon Hawkeye again here and that horse will be testing his Derby credentials stepping up to this trip for the first time. I think he is a fine horse and I think the longer distance will suit but it is only twelve days since he ran in the Guineas.

Alpine Train extended his unbeaten record to three, also at the Guineas meeting. He has won all of his starts by 3l or more and he is clearly an exciting prospect. He is also proven at the trip, which can’t be said for his two main market rivals.

Bigger Odds

Is there anything lurking at bigger odds? The one that catches my eye is Ed Walker’s Mister Rizz. Unraced at two, he was narrowly beaten at 13/8 on debut at Kempton (1m) but the much more experienced winner winner is now rated in the 90s so in hindsight, it was a fine effort.

He got off the mark in a three runner maiden in smooth style at Doncaster earlier this month and now takes a big step up in class. He’s certainly bred for this sort of standard, being by top sire Lope De Vega and out of a G2 winner, so he may be able to compete at this level. It’s a tough race but at odds of 40/1, Mister Rizz is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.

2025 York Dante Meeting Thursday Tip: Mister Rizz e/w @ 40/1

4.18 – Westow Stakes (Listed)

A rating of 93 leaves Sir Yoshi with a bit to find but he ran the best race of his life to finish a close third in a listed race over C&D last August. He finished 1.5l behind the winner Tropical Storm, a 7/2 shot here. 1.25l ahead of him in second was subsequent G1 winner Magnum Force, now rated 112. Mr Lightside was a neck behind him in fourth and he’s 6/1 here so surely, Sir Yoshi is too big at 16s.

He hasn’t repeated that level of form in three runs since but he hasn’t had 5f on good to firm ground. I’d imagine David Marnane has had this race circled in the calendar ever since that run here last year and his mark may underestimate his ability.

His three runs on good to firm have been excellent efforts, hopefully he can produce another one here. At odds of 16/1, Sir Yoshi is the e/w selection.

2025 York Dante Meeting Thursday Tip: Sir Yoshi e/w @ 16/1 NB

-DaveStevos

2025 York Dante Meeting Wednesday Preview

Neither of our Longchamp fancies on Sunday managed to land a blow. We are back on home soil this week and we are in for some cracking racing on the Knavesmire. My 2025 York Dante Meeting Wednesday preview and tips are below.

2.10 – Jorvik Handicap (Class 2)

This time two years ago I was on one of the worst runs of my tipping career and it was ended by Hayley Turner and Scampi in this contest at odds of 16/1. The same owners run La Pulga in the race this year and I think he is capable of outrunning his odds of 22/1 for Charlie Johnston and Jason Hart.

This son of Kodiac has got his head in front four times on turf, so he knows how to win. His last two victories on grass have come at 13f and 12f on good to firm ground off 82 and 85 respectively. He comes into this rated 90, so he’ll need a career best but the 6yo ran a cracker off this rating on his seasonal reappearance at Musselburgh when beaten just 2.75l and hopefully, he’ll come on for that run.

Admittedly, he has run twice at York before and they were tame efforts but he had excuses both times. On the first occasion, tacky ground over a mile didn’t suit and the second run came over two miles, a trip that probably stretches him. This time, he will have his optimum trip and ground and the last time he ran over 1m4f on good ground, he won by 4l. Hopefully he’s been lined up for this race. If he has, he might be able to hit the frame at odds of 22/1.

2025 York Dante Meeting Wednesday Tip: La Pulga e/w @ 22/1 (4 places) NAP

2.42 – Churchill Tyres Handicap (Class 2)

If he is in the mood and on a going day, Rousing Encore is more than capable of going well here off a mark of 82. Formerly trained by Richard Fahey, he has been pretty consistent since joining Ruth Carr and while he has finished sixth and fifth on his two starts this season, he hasn’t been beaten that far.

At Newbury on his seasonal reappearance he was beaten just 2.5l off 84 and at Leicester last month he was beaten 3.5l off 83. In that race he was ridden a lot more prominently than usual and I am not sure those tactics suit him.

For his last win, at Ayr in October, he was waited with in midfield and it was a similar gameplan when he was narrowly denied in a hot handicap at Doncaster in November. Hopefully, they’ll go a strong gallop here and James Sullivan will be able to get his mount to settle off the pace. If that happens, Rousing Encore can hopefully finish strongly for place money at least at odds of 20/1.

2025 York Dante Meeting Wednesday Tip: Rousing Encore e/w @ 20/1 (5 places) NB

3.13 – Duke Of York Clipper Stakes (Group 2)

She admittedly has a bit to find on the figures but if she is fit for her seasonal reappearance, Rage Of Bamby is capable of outrunning her odds of 28/1. Trained by Eve Johnson Houghton, we backed this mare when she won over C&D last season.

She then went on to run with credit in three listed races, finishing a close second at Ayr behind Star Of Lady M and then winning at Newmarket, beating the 104 rated Marine Wave by a neck. She has run well fresh before, which is a plus, she has course form figures of 251 and she loves quick ground.

Inisherin and Elite Status will probably be tough to topple but with three places on offer, hopefully Rage Of Bamby can make a bold bid and hang on for a place. A small e/w bet is advised at odds of 28/1.

2025 York Dante Meeting Wednesday Tip: Rage Of Bamby e/w @ 28/1

3.45 – Musidora Stakes (Group 3)

This will probably be another Group race win for Ballydoyle and with just seven runners, I am happy to leave it alone. No Bet.

2025 York Dante Meeting Wednesday Tip: No Bet

4.18 – Conundrum Handicap (Class 3)

As regular readers will know, I am usually not a fan of handicap debutants. However, in these early season 3yo handicaps it is a different scenario because usually, a lot of the runners are having their first starts in handicap company.

The one I am going to chance at a decent price is the Tim Easterby trained Double Parked. This gelded son of Bated Breath didn’t show a whole lot in his first two runs as a 2yo. However, he has improved no end for a winter  break and after two fine efforts in Newcastle novices over 6f and 7f, he got off the mark on his return to the turf on good to firm ground at Redcar earlier this month.

In that Redcar race he beat Camino Del Ray off level weights by a head and that rival is rated 79. They pulled 12l clear of Evangelic in fourth, a 73 rated horse. The handicapper left Double Parked on the same mark of 75 after that win, which seems a bit generous, so there could be a bit of wriggle room off that rating. He has a nice draw in stall 8, Duran Fentiman prefers him to his stablemate and at odds of 22/1, Double Parked is the e/w selection.

2025 York Dante Meeting Wednesday Tip: Double Parked e/w @ 22/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos