Heathcliff nicked fourth for us on Saturday and we also landed a place with Synergism, but that was as good as it got. Pricewise cursed Witch Hunter, Boxing Great ran well but not well enough and Hanney Girl was far too keen early. Hopefully we do better on Irish Derby Day, my Curragh fancies are below.
1.40 – Rockingham Handicap (Premier)
Aidan O’Brien will likely win the opener so we’ll start with
the Rockingham. There’s quite a few in here that I am a fan of. Gazelle d’Or is
a cracking filly and should run a big race but is she well handicapped enough to
win off 97? I’m not sure.
One that is certainly capable of winning off her current
mark is Back Down Under. Trained by Padraig Roche, this daughter of Australia
rarely runs a bad race at this venue, once the ground is on the quick side. I
had prepared a big write up for her thinking she’d be double figure odds but
she’s opened up at 8s and is already into 6s so I had to start over.
At around 33/1, Buddy Batt might run well. He’s done most of
his winning on the AW but some of his best turf runs have come at this venue.
It admittedly wasn’t his finest effort when he last ran over C&D in April
but to be fair, soft ground probably wasn’t ideal.
Last October he ran a nice race to finish a 3l fifth of 16
in a C&D handicap on yielding but the run that suggests he might go well
here came back in June 2024 in a 3yo premier handicap, the sole occasion he got
good ground over C&D. He ran a fine race to finish a 3l fourth behind
Kendall Roy off 76 and he’s just 1lb higher here.
Last time out at Dundalk he was sent off the 7-2 fav and he
never really got a clear run. A 3lb drop for that seems generous and he’s running
off the same mark as when he won at Dundalk three starts ago. Winning is
probably beyond him in this company but hopefully, he can sneak a bit of place
money at odds of 33/1.
2026 Curragh Irish Derby Day Tip: Buddy Batt e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)
2.10 – Dash Stakes (Listed)
I have previewed five races on this card for the Racing Post
spotlights and this is one of them. I tipped up the legend that is Big Gossey
and if he repeats the level of form he showed in the Greenlands here last time
out, he may well be hard to beat. He’s accordingly priced, though, so I am
going to go put one up e/w at bigger odds.
The one that appeals most at a price is a filly we backed in
the Greenlands last time out, Fregada. I remain convinced that this daughter of
Kodiac is capable of earning black type and while her form figures this year
are not great, she hasn’t been a million miles away the last twice.
In the Greenlands, she showed up well for a long way before
fading late. In the end, she was beaten 4.5l for the win but she was only 2.5l
behind Big Gossey and close up behind the 107 rated Montassib and 110 rated
Bucanero Fuerte. Last time out in a listed race at Cork over 5f she was beaten
3.5l for the win, keeping on, and she should be much more comfortable stepped back
up to 6f here.
Hopefully Ronnie Whelan takes his time on her here and comes
with a late run. If he does, Fregada can hopefully snaffle some black type at odds
of 25/1.
2026 Curragh Irish Derby Day Tip: Fregada e/w @ 25/1
(NB)
2.45 – Derby Festival Handicap (Premier)
This is another race I did for the RP and I sided with the veteran
Coeur d’Or, who was runner up in this last year off 11lb higher. He has run well
on his last two starts and the drop back to 1m on quick ground is a plus for him.
The most interesting one at much bigger odds is Lord Massusus.
This son of Markaz seems to have been around forever but he is still only a
6yo. He is usually campaigned at Listed/G3 level and he now has his sights lowered
and returns to handicap company for the first time since May 20233.
Lord Massusus is actually undefeated in handicaps, his last
win coming off 97. He is now rated 98 after a couple of middling runs in stakes’
company and with Paddy Harnett claiming 5lb, he is effectively 4lb lower than
for his last win. He’s won over C&D, he handles quick ground and at odds of
18/1, he is worth chancing e/w.
2026 Curragh Irish Derby Day Tip: Lord Massusus e/w @
18/1 (4 places)
3.20 – International Stakes (Group 3)
It is hard to see beyond Purview in this G3. He looked a
proper horse when dotting up over 1m4f in a listed race here last time and he
previously scored at this trip at Cork so the drop back in distance shouldn’t
stop him from completing the hat-trick.
None of the bigger priced horses make much appeal here so we’ll
move swiftly on. No bet.
2026 Curragh Irish Derby Day Tip: No bet
3.55 – Celebration Stakes (Listed)
Tokenomics is my RP selection for this race. I am not sure Alcantor
will be effective on this quick ground and the Marnane horse beat him last time
out at Leopardstown. I’m surprised he’s as big as 9/2 and if Luke McAteer times
his challenge right, I think he’s the one to beat. With just two places on
offer this race makes limited appeal as an e/w betting heat so we’ll leave it alone.
No bet.
2026 Curragh Irish Derby Day Tip: No bet
4.35 – Irish Derby (Group 1)
The big one. The O’Brien family supply six of the eight runners
and Epsom flop Benvenuto Cellini is the market leader at 6/4. Moore keeps the
faith in this son of Frankel and he’ll likely be a different horse on this
quicker ground.
Ronnie Whelan keeps the ride on the Derby winner Christmas
Day but whether he’ll be as good on this faster ground remains to be seen. The totally
unexposed Raaheeb could prove to be the biggest threat to the fav. He’s 2-2 and
Owen Burrows’ charge, who is a full brother to the top class performers Baaeed
and Hukum, is an intriguing British raider.
Action was no match for Raaheeb when they met at Sandown in April
but he ran a much better race when chasing home Item in the Dante and he had
Christmas Day 1.75l behind that day. It was good ground at York and while Christmas
Day reversed the form in emphatic fashion at Epsom, that was on much softer
ground.
Back on a sounder surface, perhaps Action can turn the tables
on Christmas Day. Last season, on his sole start on good to firm, he got to
within 1.5l of Bow Echo at Newmarket so he clearly likes fast conditions and it
has been a hot, mostly dry week in Ireland. Action looks well down the Ballydoyle pecking
order on jockey arrangements but he wouldn’t be the first third or
fourth string to run well from that stable so at 25/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
2026 Curragh Irish Derby Day Tip: Action e/w @ 25/1
5.45 – Ragusa Handicap (Premier)
The preceding 3yo handicap didn’t float my boat so we’ll
finish up with this ultra-competitive race. This is another one I covered for
the RP and I took a chance on Railwayview Lady, who I thought might represent
each way value at in and around 25/1.
She opened up at that price (and even bigger with Sky at
33s) but she’s been backed already and is now a best price of 14s. Is she still
value? Yes, probably. I thought she stayed on really nicely in a quality 1m2f
handicap here last time out, she’s been generously eased 2lb and the step up in
trip looks sure to suit.
I’m going to stick to my guns with her, hopefully Wayne
Lordan can sneak her into the places at the very least.
2026 Curragh Irish Derby Day Tip: Railwayview Lady e/w @
14/1 (4 places) NAP
No comments:
Post a Comment