If the French Derby is anything to go by, we may as well hand the Oaks and Derby trophies to Coolmore now. We were out of luck with both our Chantilly bets but I thought both Temapica and Campacite ran better than the bare results and I’d like to see them running on a more galloping track. Hopefully we see them in the UK at some stage.
We’ll have a go at a
2026 Oaks & Derby e/w double (and two small singles) this weekend, hopefully we can get
a couple of decent runs for our money.
2026 Oaks (Friday)
Five of the twelve remaining entries in the 2026 Oaks are
trained by Aidan O’Brien. At the top of the Ballydoyle pecking order (according
to the bookies) is Amelia Earhart, who is the 2/1 fav. By Camelot, this represents
a big step up in class for the Chesire Oaks winner and if it comes up soft (which
is a real possibility looking at the weather forecast) she might be worth
taking on.
When the weather is unsettled, as it is supposed to be this
week, it makes even short range ante-post betting treacherous. Back a good
ground horse and it is almost certain to rain heavily, back a soft ground horse
and the sun will probably split the stones all week.
In order to try and find some value, I am going to presume that
there will be an ease in the ground at Epsom this weekend. The one that I came down on is the twice
raced Wathnan filly, A La Prochaine.
Trained by Ralph Beckett, a man who knows how to train an
Oaks winner, this daughter of Lope De Vega raced just once as a 2yo. That run came
over 1m at Newbury in October on soft ground and she kept on nicely to score by
1.5l. It wasn’t the deepest maiden but three of those behind her have won since, so it wasn’t the worst race either.
Seasonal Return
Beckett pitched his charge into Listed company on her return
in the Cheshire Oaks and she shaped encouragingly to finish a 3.25l third
behind Ameila Earhart. A shade slowly away, she seemed to handle the tight turns
of Chester well and while she was soundly beaten by Amelia Earhart, I’d imagine
she’s the type of filly that will come on hugely for that run. It is also
important to remember that was just the second run of her life, whereas the
winner was having her sixth start.
A 550k purchase as a yearling, A La Prochaine has a decent
pedigree. She’s by a top tier sire and she’s a half-sister to a heavy ground
Listed & G3 winner and her dam, who is by Hurricane Run, was Listed placed
and she is related to another couple of stakes’ placed performers.
Obviously, A La Prochaine will have to take a big step
forward from her Chester run, but as I mentioned earlier that was just her second start so huge improvement could be forthcoming. At odds of 16/1, she is the each
way selection.
2026 Oaks Tip: A La Prochaine e/w @ 16/1
2026 Derby (Saturday)
We should have a bigger field for the 2026 Epsom Derby. 17
horse have stood their ground and though seven are trained by O’Brien, only two
are single figure odds. The hype horse is Benvenuto Cellini, a Frankel colt who
hosed up in the Chester Vase. He has won a maiden on yielding to soft but he
could only manage third on heavy in the Futurity at Donny last season so if there’s
lots of rain, it could be a concern for him.
Just like I did in the Oaks, I am going to bank on it being
a wet week on the Epsom Downs. And just like in the Oaks, the one that makes most
appeal at a half-decent price is another Ralph Beckett horse, Bay of Brilliance.
By New Bay, a sire that I am a massive fan of, this colt has
won two of his four starts. After a mildly promising debut at Newbury (7f, gd-fm)
he got off the mark upped to 1m2f on soft ground in a decent Goodwood maiden in
September.
Beckett kept him in novice company at Redcar on his next
outing a month later and dropped him back to 1m1f, this time on good to soft
ground. Bay Of Brilliance was giving 7lb away to his six rivals and he made
mincemeat of them, bolting up by 8.5l.
Up In Grade
Beckett stepped his son of New Bay up in grade on his seasonal
return in the Derby Trial at Lingfield (11.5f, gd-fm). He ran a cracker to finish
a neck second behind Maltese Cross, who had a race fitness edge, and on easier ground
with that run under his belt, I’d strongly fancy Bay of Brilliance to turn the
tables on that rival.
This lad isn’t lacking in the pedigree department either. He’s
a half-brother to the classy dual-purpose performer Absurde, who ran a huge
race in the Melbourne Cup a couple of years ago. His Singspiel dam was a useful
performer on easy ground in France and was placed at Listed level and his
grand-dam is a half-sister to the 1998 G1 Prix Marcel Boussac winner Juvenia.
The more rain that falls the better it will suit this colt, in my opinion, and while there are better jockeys out there than Hector Crouch, he has been on board for all four of his previous runs so it is understandable that he keeps the ride. Even if it doesn’t rain, this colt proved he handled faster conditions at Lingfield and at odds of 16/1, he is worth backing e/w.
All aboard the Beckett Express for Epsom!
2026 Epsom Derby Ante-Post Tip: Bay Of Brilliance e/w @ 16/1
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