Thursday 10 November 2016

Runyon Can Rattle Them At Cheltenham

Shelbe got the job done nicely for us at Dundalk on Wednesday, and as soon as I saw her bounce out of the stalls I knew we were home and dry. Hussey settled her behind the leaders, and she travelled like a dream throughout the race. Hussey could even afford to take a pull as they rounded the home turn, and when he gave her the office 2f out she responded instantly and put daylight between herself and the rest of the field. The closers couldn't get to her, and she came home well to score at 14/1 (adv 22/1).

For those who have just started following me on Facebook, I would just like to warn you that it isn't always this easy! I recommend that stakes be kept small on my selections because, as Oak Vintage showed, sometimes they run stinkers. Tipping up horses at big prices can be difficult, and losing runs are inevitable. However, the blog is well ahead after a year and half or so, and hopefully it stays that way going into the future.

The one I fancy goes tomorrow at Cheltenham, and I think the key to this fella is good ground. Runyon Rattler is trained by the ultra shrewd Philip Rothwell, and he has won just 2 of his 13 starts. However, crucially, both of those wins came when the ground was on the firm side, and both those wins came in very impressive fashion.

He won his bumper on his 3rd start, hosing up by 31L at Kilbeggan in what was a pretty moderate contest. However, the 2nd home went on to win a maiden hurdle at Galway subsequently, so at least there is a small bit of substance to the form. Rothwell's charge ran well in a number of races after that easy win, and his form figures of 33423 are all the more creditable seeing as they came on unsuitably soft ground.

He ended up having a total of 8 maiden hurdle runs after that bumper win, and it wasn't until his 9th and his return to good ground that he managed to regain the winning thread. He was sent off a 15/8 fav at Wexford back in July (16f gd) and he absolutely hosed up by 9L from Henry Howard. He was handed a mark of 113 for that run, but it wasn't his rating that beat him on his handicap debut at Kilbeggan, it was the yielding ground in my opinion. He still managed a 2nd place finish, beaten 5L by Rocongo. It was again soft last time at Ballinrobe, and he finished a decent 2nd, beaten 7L.

He has been handed a mark of 124 for his British debut and, on the face of it, that looks harsh. However, the ground is forecast to be good at Cheltenham, and that will be right up Runyon Rattler's street. The booking of Paul Townend catches the eye, and he is 6/53 for Rothwell in the last five seasons. The weather forecast is good, Runyon Rattler has won by a combined total of 40L his sole starts on genuine good ground and, at odds of 20/1, he has to be worth a small each way interest in a wide open looking handicap.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.15 CHELTENHAM: RUNYON RATTLER E/W 20/1

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