Step Up In Trip Could Be The Making Of Magic At Leopardstown

Trans Express gave us a great run for our money in the handicap hurdle at Cheltenham on Friday. My heart was racing as they approached the third last as he was travelling very well and I thought he had a great chance of winning, let alone placing. However, he just lacked the turn of foot possessed by some of his rivals after jumping the last and he could only manage 7th.

Julia's Magic looks a lively outsider at Leopardstown.

I have previewed all the live ITV Saturday races for Bettingtools tomorrow and you can check out my fancies by clicking here. However, with quick ground looking likely at Leopardstown I can’t resist having a small each way bet on Julia’s Magic in the 7f Listed contest at 3.05pm.

This daughter of underrated sire Dandy Man has not run well on her last two starts in Listed and handicap company but the easy ground was not in her favour on either occasion. However, she is of big interest here on the form of her close 4th in a Listed heat at Naas three starts back and the way she finished that day suggested that 7f would really suit.

I think this filly is more than capable of picking up some black type for Denise Foster, just like her sister Lily’s Rainbow. Her wins all came at a mile so not only does Julia’s Magic’s last run suggest that 7f will suit, her pedigree does too. Quick ground is another important requirement for Julia's Magic and she looks sure to get that at Leopardstown.

On the figures she has a lot to find with some of the principals with an official rating of 93 but she was just a head and a neck behind Naas runner up Could It Be Love who was rated 112 on the day (104 now). Imaging, rated 105, is the current favourite at 3/1 but he has yet to run on quick ground. Smash Williams and Flight Risk might prefer a bit of cut and I think the biggest dangers on paper are Psychedelic Funk and North Face, who will appreciate dropping back in trip.

However, I think the step up in trip could eke out more improvement from Julia’s Magic and the return to quick ground is firmly in her favour too. If the assessor is correct she will probably finish down the field, but in my opinion her run at Naas was better than that of a 93 rated filly and at odds of 40/1 I think she has a fighting chance of picking up some precious black type for connections.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 3.05 LEOPARDSTOWN-JULIA’S MAGIC  E/W @ 40/1

All Aboard The Trans Express At Cheltenham

We had a decent Saturday last weekend on Champions Day with a couple of places at 25/1 and 66/1. I think if the ground had been softer Stormy Antarctic might have won, but credit has to go to Roaring Lion who proved he is as tough as he is classy by grinding out a victory on ground that didn’t suit.
 

Lucy Gardner gets a good tune out of Trans Express.

The ground will be good at Cheltenham tomorrow and I like one at a huge price in the 21f handicap hurdle at 3.10 who his making his seasonal comeback. Trans Express was a gallant 5th in this race last season off 112 and he is only 3lb higher here. He was a good way behind the winner that day but I think he showed he could handle the track and trip and this year’s renewal has probably been on Sue Gardner’s radar ever since.

On the face of it this 8yo son of Trans Island has it to prove off today's mark but he was beaten just under 2L by Ballinure off 115 at Towcester on his final start of last season. That showed that he can at least be competitive off his current rating and further encouragement can be gleaned from his excellent record on his seasonal comebacks for the last couple of seasons.

On his return to action in 2016 he ran a cracker in a handicap hurdle at Sandown (16f gd/sft) when beaten 5L in 2nd by Limited Reserve when conceding 5lb off 104 and that horse is now rated 138. In 2017 he reappeared in an 18.5f handicap hurdle at Exeter off 105 and he made mincemeat of his rivals, winning easily by 4L.

I think it is very interesting that connections have opted to swerve a repeat bid in that race and have decided to come straight to Cheltenham instead. He sneaks in off bottom weight and though Lucy Gardner may not be the most stylish of jockeys, she gets a good tune out of this fella and has ridden him every time he has run under rules.

Trans Express has yet to win over further than 18.5f but he stayed on all the way to the line when a close 3rd behind Ballinure over 19f at Towcester on his last start and there is loads of stamina in his pedigree so I don’t think the trip will be an issue. This is a competitive race so keep stakes small, but at odds of 40/1 I think Trans Express could surprise a few people with a big run.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: 3.10 CHELTENHAM-TRANS EXPRESS E/W @ 40/1 5 PLACES

Champions Day At Ascot 2018 Preview And Tips

Race 1

Sir Erec is proven on heavy ground.

The opening race on Champions Day at Ascot 2018 is the Group 2 Long Distance Cup at 1.25. A deluge earlier this week means conditions will be very testing and that has to be a worry for supporters of Stradivarius. He is unbeaten on quick ground this season but he has yet to win on ground with soft in the description, let alone heavy.

Flag Of Honour has at least run well on heavy before but his last three staying wins have come on good or good to firm. At the prices, I think Sir Erec could be worth chancing for the O’Briens. He hosed up in impressive fashion in a heavy ground listed contest at Limerick and he looks to be on the improve. He has to prove he has the stamina for this marathon trip but being proven on the ground is a big plus and at 14/1 he looks overpriced.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SIR EREC E/W @ 14/1

Race 2

The second race on the card is the Champions Sprint Stakes, a 6f Group 1 that looks to be a cracking renewal. Last year’s winner Librisa Breeze will be delighted with the recent weather but he needs to bounce back from a below par run at Newbury last time. Tasleet should be spot on after his pipe opener at Haydock last month and at odds of 11/1 he looks overpriced on the forecast heavy ground.

The Tin Man looks a big price too at 11/1 after his win at Haydock last time, but at bigger odds I think Donjuan Triumphant represents solid each way value after a cracking run in 4th behind the Tin Man at Haydock. He has never finished out of the first four on heavy ground, the booking of James Doyle catches the eye and at odds of 25/1 he is the each way pick in what looks a wide open renewal.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT E/W @ 25/1 NB

Race 3

The girls take centre stage in the 12f Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes at 2.40 and a total of eleven will go to post. Stamina will be at a premium on heavy ground and St Leger runner up Lah Ti Dar has no issues on that front. However, she has to prove she handles testing conditions and the daughter of Dubawi looks short enough at 11/8. Kitesurf is another one that might prefer better ground, but at least he has winning form on soft.

God Given will stay and handles an ease.

At a big price one horse that looks sure to handle conditions is the Luca Cumani trained daughter of Nathaniel, God Given. This filly’s stamina is assured and three of her five career wins have come on soft ground. She showed a good attitude to prevail in a Group 2 over 14f at Doncaster last time and on soft ground she could turn around Deauville form with Kitesurf. At odds of 20/1 she is the each way pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: GOD GIVEN E/W @ 20/1

Race 4

The QE II, otherwise known as the British Champions Mile, has attracted a star studded field of fifteen horses. Roaring Lion has been one of the stories of the season but I think there are big doubts about him handling this ground. Recoletos looks a big danger for Laffon-Parias and Peslier. He has winning form on soft ground and he looked as good as ever when taking the Prix du Moulin from Wind Chimes and Expert Eye last time.
 

Stormy Antarctic is unbeaten on soft and heavy ground over a mile.

I think Recoletos is the most likely winner, but one at a huge price who shouldn’t be overlooked on soft ground is Stormy Antarctic for Ed Walker and Gerald Mosse. This fella ran a cracker in a Group 1 at Woodbine on firm ground last time (8f) and though he hasn’t won yet this term, he has yet to encounter easy ground. His career form figures on soft or heavy ground over a mile read 111 and he is massively overpriced at odds of 66/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: RECOLETOS @ 5/1; STORMY ANTARCTIC E/W 66/1 4 PLACES

Race 5

The final Group 1 of the day is the British Champions Middle Distance Stakes and eight horses have been declared. Cracksman swerved The Arc to target this instead and after his 7L romp in it on easy ground last year he is currently odds on to repeat the trick. He was well beaten by Poet’s Word last time over course and distance on good to firm but he will be a different proposition back on a more forgiving surface.

At double figure odds I think Verbal Dexterity could go well for each way players. He hosed up on heavy ground over 7f in the Group 1 National Stakes last season and he was far from disgraced in the Racing Post trophy behind Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior. Quick ground wouldn’t have suited last time, but back on heavy ground for the first time since the Curragh Jim Bolger’s 3yo son of Vocalised could put it up to the more fancied ones at odds of 20/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: VERBAL DEXTERITY E/W @ 20/1 NAP

Race 6

The closing race on 2018 Champions Day at Ascot is the Balmoral Handicap, a very competitive looking twenty runner affair. Raising Sand and Flaming Spear head the market and there should be very little between them over this distance on ground they will both handle well. At a much bigger price I think Circus Couture could bounce back returned to a mile on heavy ground.
 

Circus Couture should be more at home back in handicap company.

He was only beaten a length in a Group 3 at Haydock on his penultimate start (8f hvy) and 9f and good to firm ground conspired against him last time. He was a fine 2nd here at the Royal Meeting over this trip back in June (gd/fm) off 106 and he is only a pound higher now after facing some tough tasks in Group 1 and Group 2 company. A return to handicaps and easy ground should spark a return to form and he is the each way pick at 33/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: CIRCUS COUTURE E/W @ 33/1 5 PLACES

Tintown Too Big On Return To Tramore

Another Cesarewitch, another loser was the case on Sunday as Miles To Memphis drifted like a barge and ran accordingly at Navan. In my defence, the ground was a lot livelier than I thought it would be and that probably played a big part in his poor performance. I blame my rum soaked weather 'reporter'!!! You know who you are… With little to no rain forecast the ground should be good at Tramore on Thursday and I think this 16/1 shot could go well at a track he likes.
 

Tintown Robin has a good record in handicaps at Tramore.

Tintown Robin hasn’t won since scoring over 16.5f on soft ground at Clonmel off a mark of 93 last November. He doesn’t need it soft though, as his win at Fairyhouse in a good ground handicap hurdle off 83 in November 2016 demonstrates. Although he has yet to win at Tramore he has run some cracking races in defeat there and his career form figures in handicaps at the track read 22244.

He ran a very nice race here back in June on his first try at 2m 5f on good ground and he travelled into the race extremely well. He was only beaten 4L by Coolfighter off 100 and he didn’t get the clearest of passages between the last couple of flights. His last two runs over shorter trips haven’t been as good but he may just need further now and his mark has slipped back down to 97.

The booking of Andrew Lynch catches the eye as he has ridden 11 winners for Vincent Halley, seven more than any other pilot. He has yet to win on board this 7yo son of Robin Des Pres but he did manage to finish second on him the last time he got the leg up. Ground will suit, his half brother won over 22f so his pedigree suggests stamina won’t be an issue and at odds of 16/1 I think Tintown Robin is well worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 2.35 TRAMORE-TINTOWN ROBIN E/W @ 16/1

Miles Looks A Massive Price For The Irish Cesarewitch

I really fancied Cliffs Of Dover to run a big race today but he was given one of the worst front running rides I have ever witnessed. How Megan Nicholls thought he could sustain that pace is beyond me and you would think she might have realised she was going a bit too fast when she was a good 20 lengths in front at one point. She must have failed maths in school because her fractions were way off!
 

The rain has arrived in time for Miles To Memphis.

The Irish version of the Cesarewitch is run at Navan on Sunday and though the ground is officially described as good a friend of mine lives in Navan and he says the rain has been relentless all day. I reckon it will be soft at best and one horse who will be delighted to see conditions deteriorate is last year’s fourth, Miles to Memphis.

Sneezy Foster’s 9yo son of Old Vic has been a grand servant since arriving from Alan King’s yard and he looks to have been laid out for this race. He was a fine 4th in it last year off a mark of 85 and though he is a couple of pounds out of the handicap he is 2lb lower this time around. Interestingly, Jimmy Quinn has been booked for the ride and he is one of the strongest jockeys capable of doing such a low weight (8st 4lbs).

Miles To Memphis has had three runs at Navan and his form figures read 142 with all three runs coming on soft or heavy ground. He showed he still has a bit left in the rank when a fine 2nd in a good handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse back in April and his last two runs were likely to put him right for a repeat Irish Cesarewitch bid. I think his odds of 40/1 are plain wrong given the weather forecast and if it is soft or heavy he will go off shorter.

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: 4.25 NAVAN-MILES TO MEMPHIS E/W @ 40/1 5 PLACES

Waitaki Worth Chancing Back Up In Trip At Cork

The Irish action on Wednesday comes from Cork and I like the look of one at a tasty price in the 8.5f fillies and mares’ handicap at 3.35. A total of ten horses will go to post in what looks a decidedly open race and though she is the oldest mare in the race at the ripe old age of 5, I think Waitaki is capable of running a big race back on better ground after a poor run on soft last time.

 

Waitaki shaped as though a mile would suit on her last visit to Cork.

This daughter of Invincible Spirit has form figures of 4046075  since winning a handicap off 60 at Fairyhouse back in June (7f gd). However, she has had excuses for the worst of her runs. Last time heavy ground was never going to suit and two runs back at the Curragh the yielding conditions were against her too.

She is of major interest on her effort here when 6th of 11 four runs back over 7f off 66 with today’s pilot Andrew Slattery on board. She was short of room on more than one occasion but when she did find daylight she stayed on very nicely, beaten just over 2L for the win and two noses for 4th. The way she finished off her race suggested a step back up in trip would suit.

She was again a massive eye catcher on her penultimate start at Roscommon (7f gd) off 63 with Danny Sheehy on board. As ever, she was ridden patiently in midfield and Danny Sheehy had her tucked away on the inner. When they turned for home she seemed to be travelling very sweetly, but as Sheehy tried to produce her on the inside the gap closed and she had nowhere to go.

I think she definitely would have placed at the very least if she had a bit more luck in running and she is now rated 60, 6lb lower than when beaten over 2L here and 3lb lower than at Roscommon. Dermot McLoughlin is a shrewd trainer and his horses can often be overpriced. I think Waitaki is definitely too big at 20/1 and if she gets the rub of the green back at Cork I can see her running a big race.

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: 3.35 CORK- WAITAKI E/W @ 20/1

Follow Dover Over A Cliff In The Cesarewitch

I think it is fair to say we were rather unlucky with Salouen in the Arc on Sunday. A slightly slow break meant he couldn’t get his favoured early prominent position, but even so, he was very unlucky not to finish in the first four given the interference he suffered close to home. At least we gained some compensation with Enable who held off a late surge from Sea Of Class, who Ithink was given a peach by James Doyle. They are two tremendously talented fillies and hopefully we get to see a rematch next season.
 

Cliffs Of Dover looks a fascinating contender in the Cesarewitch.

When you consider the success that national hunt trainers have had in the Cesarewitch it is hard to believe that Paul Nicholls has yet to send out a winner in this 2m 2f contest. Martin Pipe, Nicky Henderson, Philip Hobbs and Alan King have all won it, and I think Nicholls has a fighting chance of joining that illustrious list with Cliffs Of Dover on Saturday.

This 5yo son of Canford Cliffs has been prolific over timber, winning 6 of his 8 starts in that discipline. Make no mistake though, he is a useful tool on the level too as he demonstrated at Haydock back in August when hosing up by 12L off a mark of 77 (16f gd/fm). That was only his fourth start at 2 miles or further on the flat and he has won three of them.

His last two flat runs were more than respectable over distances short of his minimum and I though he was a big eyecatcher last time at Doncaster (14.5f gd/sft) off 88. He was held up well in rear, switched wide in the straight and he stayed on powerfully in the closing stages. He may have only finished 6th behind Just In Time beaten 3L but if the race had been run over further he would have got a lot closer to the principals.

Just In Time is priced up at just 16/1 for Saturday’s race but over a trip of 18.5f and with a 5lb swing in the weights, I think Cliffs Of Dover is value to turn that form around off 87. This fella can be a bit keen in his races sometimes but in a big field like this the pace should be strong and that should help him to settle. Megan Nicholls takes off a very handy 5lb and she is 3/6 on board this fella so there are no worries on that front.

Cliffs Of Dover is undeniably at his best on good ground or better and with little to no rain forecast in Newmarket this week, it looks like he will get his optimum ground conditions. Hopefully the draw gods smile on him and he is handed a decent starting position. If he is I can see him going off a lot shorter than the 33/1 currently available and at that price he is worth chancing each way.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: CESAREWITCH: CLIFFS OF DOVER E/W @ 33/1 5 PLACES

2018 Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe Preview

A couple of months ago I wrote a preview of the Arc for a site I do work for and at that time Enable could be backed at as big as 6/1. Her commanding reappearance win at Kempton was the catalyst for a big plunge on this fabulous filly and from an excellent draw in stall 6 she is going to take all the beating. Even if the forecast rain arrives it won’t worry this dashing daughter of Nathaniel and she is very difficult to oppose.


Sea Of Class and Magical represent the best of the 3yo fillies in 2018 and of those two I would have to side with Magical, simply because of her price. She could well benefit for the step up in trip and she will have to improve plenty for it, but 50/1 is too big about a ground versatile filly from a yard that had the 1-2-3 in this back in 2016. If the rain does come that will be a massive blow to Sea Of Class. She is undoubtedly at her best on rattling quick ground and any sort of an ease would greatly reduce her chance.
 

Enable looks a worthy favourite to win her second Arc.

Study Of Man is a horse I rate highly and I tipped him up in the race won by Roaring Lion at Leopardstown last time. I was there that day and Study Of Man got pretty buzzed up in the ring before that race so I would put a line through it. He has been handed a poor draw but he could still be a danger at a big price with luck in running as he possesses a serious turn of foot on his day. The fact that connections are reaching for blinkers is a worry though, and there are too many question marks to be confident about Study Of Man.

The one that a lot of people are talking about as a potential winner is Waldgeist and he has been backed accordingly. He was very impressive in a small field renewal of the Prix Foy when beating Talismanic, who re-opposes here. Waldgeist has won on ground ranging from soft to good so he won’t mind a drop of rain. His trainer has won this race a record seven times and he has the credentials to run a big race.

He is a best price of 7/1 for Sunday’s race and on a line through the form of his July win over Coronet back in July, I think Salouen is massively overpriced at odds of 80/1 for Sylvester Kirk and Oisin Murphy. This fella hasn’t won since he was a 2yo, but don’t let that put you off because he has shown some serious form in defeat, including when beaten a head by Cracksman at a huge price on soft ground over this trip in the Coronation Cup at Epsom.
 

Salouen looks massively overpriced at 80/1. 

He has just over a length to find with Waldgeist on  their meeting in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and he had a pleasing prep run for this in a Group 2 at Deauville when finishing a decent 3rd behind Loxley. A nice 42 day break since that run should mean that Salouen is fresh and well for this race and his trainer has always said that this was his target for the season.

Both of this son of Canford Cliffs’ wins came on good to firm ground as a 2yo but he has run some of his best races on soft and good to soft so any forecast rain won’t worry him. The draw has been kind to Salouen who starts from stall 7 and hopefully he breaks well and gets his favoured prominent racing position. His jockey Oisin Murphy has had an unbelievable season so far and he is riding with supreme confidence. Enable is the one to beat and she is by far the most likely winner, but Salouen is massively overpriced and he is my each way alternative.

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: ARC DE TRIOMPHE: ENABLE WIN 11/10; SALOUEN E/W 80/1 (4 PLACES)

Give Guard One More Chance At Ascot

One of the occupational hazards of tipping up horses at big prices is the fact that they may just be out for a run. I think that was certainly the case with Jennifleur at Cork earlier this week. The 40s available the night before the race was well gone by post time and after opening at 16/1 she was sent off at 20s. She looked like she might place 3f out but Davis met traffic problems and eased off in the closing stages. She has ability and she could be one for handicaps.
 

Josephine Gordon looks a notable jockey booking.

I am taking a chance on one at a massive price at Ascot on Friday and I think Guard Of Honour looks worth chancing each way for George Baker in the staying 2 mile handicap. This son of Galileo hasn’t won for a long time, but he has run some crackers in defeat, including when beaten just 9L in the 2m 5f Queen Alexandra Stakes at the Royal meeting back in 2017.

His best run since came over 2 miles on good to firm ground at Goodwood three starts back when 4th, beaten nearly 9L off 87. Next time, back in the Queen Alexandra he blew the start completely and finished down the field. He was given a two month break after that effort and after a below par run on unsuitably soft ground in a French Claimer last time out he has been dropped to what looks a workable handicap mark of 81.

He races over what I think is near his optimum trip of 2 miles at Ascot on Friday and most importantly of all, he will get his favoured good ground. He hit peak form at this time of the year in 2015 and 2016 when running big races in valuable staying handicaps in Ireland, including a gallant effort at the Curragh (16f gd) when beaten less than a length off today’s mark in second. His career form figures on the flat over 15-16f on good ground or better read 32244.


By far his best run in the last two seasons came here in the Queen Alexandra and a repeat of that form would see him go very close here. He ran to an RPR rating of 88 in that 2 mile contest at Goodwood off 87 in June and that proved that some ability remained. The booking of Josephine Gordon catches the eye too, as she has a win and a second from just two rides for George Baker.

Baker has not had a winner in the past fortnight but that doesn’t tell the full story. He has had a host of horses run well and from his last 10 runners, 6 have reached the money. Baker has had just 5 winners so far this season, a poor return by his standards, so perhaps there was an issue in the yard. If there was, it looks like his horses are starting to turn the corner now and at odds of 33/1 I think Guard Of Honour could go well for each way players.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 4.10 ASCOT-GUARD OF HONOUR  E/W @ 33/1 4 PLACES

Jenni Could Build On Promising Debut For Davison At Cork

I was as sick as the proverbial parrot after the Cambridgeshire on Saturday. Raising Sand finished first of eight in his group, but it was only good enough for eighth overall and I advised him (and backed him) each way at 40s and 50s for 7 places. A couple of bookies paid out on 8 places each way, including Bet365, so I hope some of you still got paid.
 

Jack Davison with Black Magic Woman at Dundalk.

I am going to chance another 40/1 shot each way for small stakes at Cork on Wednesday in the opening 6.5f maiden at 2.05. I have tipped up a couple of Jack Davison’s horses already this season, including Downtown Diva who was placed and Black Magic Woman who wasn’t disgraced on Champions Day at Leopardstown.

Davison’s only winner so far is 2yo Black Magic Woman, who scored decisively for him at Dundalk. He has another 2yo, Miacomet, who also has plenty of ability and I think in Jennifleur he could have another useful juvenile filly on his hands. She finished 7th of 14 on her debut at Down Royal and while she was beaten 6.5L she travelled extremely wide after breaking slowly and a few of the horses that finished in front of her have franked the form.

She was just over 4L behind Macqeez who came home in 5th and he ran to a Racing Post Rating of 98 behind Japan in a Group 2 at Naas next time out. Festina Plente was in 4th, 4.5L ahead of Jennifleur and she beat a decent horse of Andy Slattery’s at Dundalk on her next outing. The 3rd home Social Graces has since won a Listowel maiden by 5L and the runner up Army Recruit split two Ballydoyle horses when finishing 2nd at Gowran.

In my opinion, Jennifleur could have finished a fair bit closer to those rivals if she had broken better and charted a course closer to the inside. However, she is sure to have benefited from the day out and I think she could come on leaps and bounds for it. The drop in trip doesn’t worry me either as she showed a bit of speed in the middle part of the race at Down Royal and her pedigree suggests that a slightly shorter distance will suit.

Her sire, Tagula, was a very classy 2yo over 6f and he has produced Coventry Stakes winner Canford Cliffs and 6f specialist Limato, among others. Her Compton Place dam was a four time winner over 6f and she is related to a host of speedy types. Her grand dam is a half sister to top class 2yo Bahamian Bounty, a multiple winner over 6f.

Cork is a flat, fast track and on quick ground a high draw is usually favoured so stall 8 shouldn’t be an issue. Sean Davis retains the ride and he takes off a valuable 5lb so Jennifleur will be getting weight from the vast majority of her rivals. If she is able to get away on level terms here and has improved for her debut, I think there is every chance she could run a big race. At odds of 40/1 a small each way interest is advised.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 2.05 CORK-JENNIFLEUR E/W @ 25/1