Spiorad Could Soar Off Low Weight In Irish Cambridgeshire

The main event in Ireland this weekend is the Irish Cambridgeshire and it looks as competitive a renewal as ever. 22 horses will go to post and unsurprisingly, a case can be made for lots of them. Only one 3yo has won this race since 2008, but one of that age sneaks in off bottom weight and I think Spiorad Saoirse has the credentials to outrun his massive odds of 33/1.

Spiorad Saoirse looks overpriced for the Cambridgeshire. 

Andy Slattery’s son of Ifraaj has looked a different horse since getting decent ground, and I think he is going to relish a fast run mile at a stiff track like the Curragh. He got his head in front in a four runner conditions race at Limerick (8f gd/fm) three runs back, getting 2lb from a horse rated 87 and winning by nearly 2L.

He followed that up with a fine effort on ground that was probably plenty soft for him at Galway, finishing 4th off 85 with Ben Coen claiming 7lb. He went even closer last time out at Ballinrobe off the same mark and for the same jockey, going down by a short head to Still Standing over 10f on good to yielding ground. He is only a pound higher here off a mark of 86.

Still Standing was rated 81 that day and he franked the form in no uncertain terms when hosing up off 84 at Killarney by over 3L. I think Spiorad Saoirse is going to be well suited by the drop back to a mile and the faster they go early, the better. The ground looks ideal, he has a light weight and young Slattery takes off another 7lb. Stall 16 isn’t a bad draw and at odds of 33/1 I think Spiorad Saoirse could go well for each way players.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 4.00 CURRAGH-SPIORAD SAOIRSE E/W @ 33/1 (5 PLACES)

Remain May Be Overpriced At Sandown On Saturday

The ITV4 cameras will be at Sandown on Saturday where the Solario Stakes is the highlight. With only six runners declared I will be swerving it, but I think Confiding has what it takes after an encouraging second run in a Group 2 at Goodwood last time. The form of the race hasn’t worked out yet, but I think Confiding struggled on the track and he should be a lot more effective at Sandown.
 

Paul Cole has his string in red hot form. 

However, my main weekend fancy goes in the opening handicap at 1.50, and though 3yos have a poor record in the race I think May Remain looks a mad price at 25/1. This son of Mayson has been knocking on the door, despite his poor form figures, and he has been crying out for a fast run race over a stiff 5f in my opinion.

He wasn’t beaten far at all last time over 5f on good ground off 79 at Salisbury, beaten just over a length when finishing 4th of seven. 6f was too far for him on his previous start at Windsor and he struggled off a big weight of 10st 1lb on his second run of the season at Lingfield. Interestingly, he was 3L behind the runner up Shamshon that day conceding 13lb, and he is 12lb better off here. Shamshon is just 8/1 for this race, while May Remain is more than triple that price.

The ground is currently described as good to soft at Sandown, but with little to no rain forecast the ground is likely to be good or better. That won’t pose any problems for May Remain, as the son of Mayson goes on any ground. He was won on good and good to soft, and he has placed form on good to firm.

On his run behind Havana Grey in the Molecomb last season I think a mark of 79 is well within his capabilities and his trainer’s record at Sandown gives more cause for optimism. Paul Cole, who is in red hot form, has had 50 winners and 133 top 4 finishes from just 383 runs at Sandown and Raul Da Silva has hit the frame on over 50% of his rides for Cole. High numbers are favoured at Sandown, and from stall 12 May Remain could go close for each way players at 25/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 1.50 SANDOWN (SATURDAY)-MAY REMAIN E/W @ 25/1

Russian Could Return To Form At Thirsk

Feel The Vibes finished a well beaten 6th at Lingfield, travelling wide and finding nothing up the home straight. Perhaps 10f was a bridge too far under those tactics on soft ground, but keep an eye out for when he returns to the all weather. Whether it is a mile or 10f he looks a well handicapped horse, and if he gets back to the form he showed at the turn of the year he will pick up a bad race during the winter, no doubt at a big price.
 

Galway man Graham Lee is a pilot I have massive respect for.

Thankfully, Compton’s Finale ran a much better race at Bellewstown, beaten just over 2L by Nitro Boost in 3rd. Shane Foley gave him a lovely ride, getting a good prominent position early from stall 15. As they hit the 2f pole I thought Compton’s Finale might go on and win, but he got unbalanced at the road crossing and after that it was curtains. It was a very promising effort in what looked a decent maiden, and I am looking forward to seeing how he goes next time.

I had a good look at Friday’s cards and one horse that interested me was Russian Realm in the 6f handicap at Thirsk at 4.45. Paul Midgeley has his string in super form and this fella won his only previous start at the track (over 7f). His last win came in August last year at Haydock (6f soft) and he ran off a mark of 81 that day. He is just a pound higher here and he has won on ground ranging from soft to good to firm, so he won’t be worried about the weather.

Dougie Costello, who was on board for Russian Realm’s last win, gets the leg up on Midgeley’s other runner, Captain Colby. Graham Lee will be in the saddle on Russian Realm instead, and for me that is a big plus. I am a massive fan of Graham Lee, going back to his days as stable jockey to tricky jumps trainer Ferdy Murphy, and he did me plenty of favours on good old Hawkeyethenoo on the flat, among plenty of others.

Russian Realm showed two runs back at Epsom that he was still well capable of mixing it at this level when 2nd of 16 beaten less than 2L off 83 over 6f on good ground.  He was beaten less than a length on his first two starts this season off 82, and he races off the same mark here. He has to be forgiven two poor runs on his last two starts but given his only previous visit to Thirsk resulted in victory there is every chance he will bounce back to form. At odds of 20/1 he is a confident each way selection.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 4.45 THIRSK-RUSSIAN REALM E/W @ 20/1

The Vibes Look Good For Blanshard’s Charge Up In Trip At Lingfield

Frustratingly, Star Girl didn’t take her chance at Chepstow through no fault of her own. Amid farcical scenes involving a clearly bemused Franny Norton and a massive piece of turf, racing was abandoned due to concerns over the safety of the ground. I am of the opinion that the safety of the horses and jockeys should always come first, and in this case the right decision was reached.

I am off to Bellewstown tomorrow with Compton’s Finale who runs in the 5f maiden at 6.05. He ran a race full of promise last time on his debut at Tipp, but he is up against a couple of very good horses in Darkash and Nitro Boost, the likely short priced favourite. It would be brilliant if he could sneak a place and I cannot wait to see how he gets on. Dusty Foley rides again and hopefully he gets a good tune out of him.
 

Nicola Currie got a good tune out of Feel The Vibes at Bath.

My only bet tomorrow is a speculative one, and stakes should be kept small. I have spotted an interesting one at a huge price in the 10f class 6 handicap at 4.55, and I think Feel The Vibes could outrun his odds for Michael Blanshard and Nicola Currie, who claims a handy 3lb. This son of Medicean has uninspiring form figures, but he has run well on the all weather Lingfield off higher marks than the one he races off here earlier this season and he shaped well enough on soft last time.

At the turn of the year he was beaten just 2L in fourth here over a mile off a mark of 57 and he shaped as though further would suit. He kept on well again over 8f on his next outing, again at Lingfield, beaten just over 3L off 55 and doing his best work at the finish. He wasn’t at his best when upped to 10f next time, but again he was far from disgraced and he was only beaten just over 5L. I thought he seemed to handle soft ground well enough at Chepstow last time (8f) and though he was beaten 9L he shaped as though a try over further would be worth a crack.


He kept on well under a waiting ride from Nicola Currie (the only time she has ridden him) at Bath back in May (8f gd/fm), finishing 4th off 51, beaten 4L. Feel The Vibes is now rated just 44, so he is a pound out of the handicap but with Currie’s claim he effectively runs off 42, 9lb lower than for his run at Bath and 15lb lower than for his 2L defeat here on the all weather. He shaped nicely enough on his first try on soft last time, and at monstrous odds he could stay on late to challenge for a place.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 4.55 LINGFIELD-FEEL THE VIBES E/W @ 66/1

Star Could Sparkle Back On Easier Ground At Chepstow

We ended York without a winner, but we couldn’t have gone much closer with Mabs Cross. Gordon Lord Byron ran a cracker for us too, and a furlong out I thought he was going to mow down the eventual winner. What a horse he has been for connections, and at the grand old age of 10 he is still going strong.

Coronet bumped into a special one in Sea Of Class, but she still ran a cracking race and if she isn’t retired she is capable of getting her head back in front in the right contest. Chief Ironside ran with great credit too, going out on his shield after trying to make all for Fran Berry. He is a horse with a future.

David Evans has a good record at Chepstow.

There was lots of rain about in the UK and Ireland on Sunday so there should be a bit of juice in the ground at most venues. The ground was described as good-good to soft in places at Chepstow early on Sunday morning, but after a fair spill of rain during the day it is now officially good to soft.

For this reason, I am going to have a small each way interest in a 3yo daughter of Dutch Art trained by David Evans. Star Girl showed clear signs of promise on her debut at Salisbury back in May over 6f on good to soft, beaten 11L when finishing 7th of 13. She finished in close proximity to a couple of horses that have won since and depending on how you read the form, she looks potentially well treated on handicap debut off 51.

She was slow away and found a little bit of trouble in running too, so that is why she went into my notebook. The winner and runner up from that race have won since and are both rated 80+. Gloweth, less than a length in front of Star Girl, has been handed an opening mark of 72 after going close subsequently and she was carrying 1lb more than Star Girl at Salisbury.

Akbar Shah. who has since gone close and is rated in the mid 70s, was behind Star Girl at Salisbury, as was Juthoor who has since won a novice and is now rated 75. Star Girl didn’t seem to relish the good to firm ground on her next start a couple of weeks later at Windsor, and Evans put her away, presumably playing the waiting game for easy ground.

Ten days ago Calum Shepherd rode Star Girl in a 7f maiden at Kempton and I think she ran better than her finishing position and distance beaten suggests. Only for a slow start and traffic problems she could have finished closer. I think her opening handicap mark of 51 could underestimate her if there is cut in the ground and at huge odds she is worth chancing each way.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 4.55 CHEPSTOW-STAR GIRL @ 40/1 E/W

York Ebor Festival Day 4: Live ITV Races Preview And Tips

Race 1

The Strensall Stakes kicks off the action on the final day of the Ebor Festival at York and nine horses have been declared for this 9f Group 3. Lord Glitters is the favourite dropping in class after some excellent efforts in Group 1 and Group 2 company, but he keeps on finding one or two too good and I think he would prefer a bit of cut in the ground. I would have fancied Morando on easy ground too, but underfoot conditions look a bit too quick for him.

Chief Ironside hosed up in a decent Chester maiden.

The one I like at a price here is Chief Ironside for William Jarvis and Thundering Blue’s owner Clive Washbourn. This 3yo son of Lawman ran a cracker on his first try in pattern company when finishing a close 3rd at Goodwood last time (8f gd/fm) and this extra furlong should suit. Fran Berry is riding with confidence, William Jarvis has a decent record at York and at odds of 20/1 Chief Ironside could surprise with a big run.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: CHIEF IRONSIDE E/W @ 20/1 NAP

Race 2

The Melrose Handicap sees a field of 16 horses go to post and this 14f contest looks a tricky puzzle to solve. It is 7/1 the field, which shows the bookies are struggling to work it out too, but I really fancy the chances of Midnight Wilde at a tasty price. John Ryan’s son of Poet’s Voice ran a massive race in the Ulster Derby behind Change of Velocity, staying on strongly for 3rd over the 12f trip and shaping as though further would suit.

He proved that to be the case last time out at Chester on his first try at 14f, staying on well to score by just under 2L off a mark of 80. The handicapper has only put him up 2lb for that win and I think he is well capable of making his presence felt off 82. He has a nice enough draw in stall 6, he will love the fast ground and the 14f trip looks ideal. At odds of 25/1 I think Midnight Wilde could go well for each way players and he is the pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MIDNIGHT WILDE E/W @ 25/1

Race 3

The Group 3 City of York Stakes is run over 7f and I fancy an old boy to go well. Gordon Lord Byron has to be one of the most likeable horses in training and he is still going strong for Tom Hogan after 88 starts. He has won 16 times and placed on a further 25 occasions, and he showed there was still life in the old dog yet with a smashing run over 6f in a Group 3 at the Curragh last time. 

Gordon Lord Byron has been a star for connections.

He has won three Group 1s during his stellar career and though he isn’t quite the force of old I think he still has enough in the tank to go well here. His last win came on easy ground, but he showed last season that he could cope well on good to firm with a super effort behind Washington DC at the Curragh (6f). Expert Eye is the current market leader and he could be hard to beat, but I think there is place money up for grabs and at odds of 22/1 Gordon Lord Byron is worth chancing each way over a course and distance that he really likes.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: GORDON LORD BYRON E/W @ 22/1 

Race 4

The feature race of the entire meeting is the Ebor and this famous heritage handicap has attracted a maximum field of 20 horses. A high draw has been an advantage in recent renewals, with only one of the last 10 winners being drawn lower than stall 10 (Litigant stall 6 2015). That is not good news for those who have participated in the plunge on Stratum as the Willie Mullins trained gamble will start from stall 4. I am not sure about the drop back in trip for him either, and at just 7/2 he looks too short.

The draw has been kinder to last year’s hero Nakeeta (stall 15) and the apple of Iain Jardine’s eye showed clear signs of returning to form last time out. However, I think his main aim might be the Melbourne Cup later this season after his superb effort in it last term and he is also 3lb higher than he was last year after being put up a pound for his run behind Stratum at Newbury.

Andrew Balding has sent out 16 winners in the last two weeks, including one at York on Thursday. He runs two here, and on jockey bookings I think Scotland could be the number one. Crack claimer Jason Watson gets the leg up on the 7yo son of Monsun who makes his belated handicap debut off a mark of 108. Watson takes off another 3lb and he has been handed a decent starting position in stall 10.
 

Scotland is 5lb better off with Dylan Mouth with Jason Watson's claim. 

This fella has failed to win since scoring at Epsom on his second career start, all the way back in 2013. He has run some very good races in defeat at higher levels than this in the past, and he was far from disgraced in the Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup (20f gd/fm) when 5th behind Stradivarius. That proved that the old ability still remained after a near 2 year absence, and he ran another stormer when beaten a length by Dylan Mouth over this c&d on his next start.

He is 2lb better off with that rival (5lb with Watson's claim) for a length defeat and given that Dylan Mouth was all out at the finish, I think Scotland’s proven stamina reserves can help him turn the form around in what is likely to be a strongly run race. Jason Watson’s claim means that Scotland effectively runs off 105 and Watson is worth every ounce of his allowance. His record when riding for Mr. Balding speaks for itself, 14 wins and 31 top 4 finishes from just 77 rides.

Scotland has to be forgiven a poor run last time when well beaten in a 12f Group 2 at Goodwood by Mirage Dancer, but the drop back in trip was never likely to suit and I reckon that might have been an outing to sharpen him up for a crack at this contest after his fine effort here behind Dylan Mouth. Given that Dylan Mouth is priced up at 18/1, I think Scotland is a crazy price at 50s, and hopefully his owner’s patience is rewarded with a massive run.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SCOTLAND E/W @ 50/1 NB

York Ebor Festival Day 3: Live ITV Races Preview And Tips

Race 1

A competitive looking 12f handicap kicks off the card on Day 3 of the Ebor Festival and I am very sweet on the chances of Theglasgowwarrior here for Jim Goldie and PJ McDonald. This 4yo son of Sir Percy could easily be coming into this race looking to complete the four timer, but he has had no luck in running on his last two starts when narrowly beaten at Hamilton (13f gd/fm) and Chester (13.5f gd/fm). His last run at today’s trip of 12f resulted in a facile win at Hamilton on good to firm and this is his first run at the distance since.
 

The booking of PJ McDonald is a big positive.

That win came off a mark of 76 and he is running off 87 now, but if things had gone his way on his last two starts he would be rated even higher. PJ McDonald takes over from an apprentice in the plate and he has yet to finish out of the first three from five rides for this owner, winning twice. Hopefully he improves on that fine record at York on Friday and at odds of 14/1 Theglasgowwarrior is my e/w NAP of the day.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: THEGLASGOWWARRIOR E/W @ 12/1 NAP

Race 2

The stayers take centre stage in the second race of the day, the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup. Nine horses will go to post for this 16.5f race and Stradivarius is a short price to make it four wins on the spin. He has scored at Group 1 level the last twice and he looks to have every chance of completing the four timer. The one that could give him most to think about is Red Verdon, a horse that has been crying out for this step back up to 2 miles.
 

Red Verdon will relish the step back up to 2 miles.

Ed Dunlop’s charge has been second on his last four starts and he could be set to fill that role again if Stradivarius shows up in tip top shape.  The son of Lemon Drop Kid will love the rattling quick ground at York and he gets a handy 3lb from the favourite. Jim Crowley takes over from regular rider James Doyle in the plate and he has a decent record when teaming up with Ed Dunlop. Red Verdon can be backed at odds of 17/2 and at that price he looks well worth backing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: RED VERDON E/W @ 17/2

Race 3

The Group 2 Gimcrack, a 6f contest for 2yos, is the third race on Day 3 of the Ebor Festival and eight colts and one gelding are due to go to post. On the figures Semoum looks to have a lot to find with the principals, but he is a horse I have had my eye on since his win at Ripon and the form of that race has worked out extremely well. Semoum scored by over 3L that day and the runner up is now on a three timer after winning his next two starts.

Semoum wasn’t quite as impressive when narrowly winning on his handicap debut at Ascot last time off a mark of 83, but he pulled hard in the small field and he did well to win considering. He should be able to settle better in this contest and Luke Morris will be hoping that he can provide George Peckham with his first winner at York with his first ever runner at the track. At odds of 25/1 he is the each way selection.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SEMOUM E/W @ 25/1

Race 4

The Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes is run over the minimum trip of 5f and it was one of the most dramatic races on the card last year. Battaash was sent off at just 11/4 but he could only manage 4th behind Marsha, who edged out Lady Aurelia in an absolutely thrilling finish. This year Battaash is the odds on favourite and he will be very popular with punters after his demolition job in the King George at Goodwood. If he repeats that level of performance he will be hard to beat.  
 

Mabs Cross looks well overpriced for the Nunthorpe.

However, the one I like for each way purposes is Mabs Cross, a 4yo daughter of Dutch Art who has been knocking on the door in big sprints the last twice. She has less than a length to find with Battaash on their clash at Haydock back in May and she ran a cracker when closing the gap to that rival to a neck in the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot. I think this filly will be bang there again for Michael Dods and Tom Eaves and at odds of 16/1 she looks well overpriced.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MABS CROSS E/W @ 16/1 NB

York Ebor Festival Day 2: Live ITV Races Preview And Tips

Race 1

The girls take centre stage in the opening race on Day 2 at York in the Lowther, a Group 2 contest for juvenile fillies run over 6f. Aidan O’Brien sends Fairyland across the pond and plenty fancy her to get back to winning ways after a fine effort behind Main Edition at Royal Ascot. She is undoubtedly a talented filly, but nagging doubts remain about the wellbeing of the Ballydoyle string and I wouldn’t be steaming in at just 2/1.

At a decent price, I think Queen Jo Jo is an interesting contender for Kevin Ryan and Danny Tudhope. This daughter of Gregorian won in impressive fashion last time at Beverley (5f gd/fm), showing progression from her debut effort when beaten at the same track. The manner of her win suggested that 6f would be no issue, and herself and the runner up pulled well clear of the rest.

From 7 rides on 2yos for Kevin Ryan, Tudhope has had 2 winners and he has yet to finish out of the first 4 on a Ryan juvenile. Ryan has his string in excellent form at the minute too with 4 winners and 13 placed horses in the past fortnight. At odds of 16/1 I think there are enough positives to justify a small e/w bet on Queen Jo Jo.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: QUEEN JO JO E/W @ 16/1

Race 2

There is nearly £150k up for grabs for the winner of the Premier Yearling Stakes, an ultra competitive contest for 2yos over 6f. Richard Hannon has won the last two renewals so his entries are an obvious starting point, but Tim Easterby won this race back in 2009 with Midnight Martini and at massive odds I think that Dream Of Honour could give each way players a run for their money.

This son of Dream Ahead ran a cracker here on debut despite being green as grass, beaten just under a length in 3rd. He was still immature when reappearing at Thirsk next time over 5f but he stayed on well for 2nd again beaten just under a length. He was the bridesmaid again at Ayr on his first try at 6f last time, keeping on well but failing to reel in the winner.

Dream Of Honour has been handed a mark of 80 for those three efforts, and he needs to find a fair bit on the figures with some of the more fancied horses. However, I suspect this race may have been the plan since that taking debut at York and he should be suited by a strongly run 6f back on the Knavesmire. He has a nice draw in stall 8 so David Allan will have options, and at odds of 40/1 he is the each way pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DREAM OF HONOUR E/W @ 40/1
 

Silver Line deserves another chance back down to a mile.

Race 3

The third race of the day at York is an extremely tricky looking 8f handicap and a case can be made for a whole host of horses. As always, small stakes at big prices make sense in races of this nature and at odds of 22/1 I think Saeed Bin Suroor’s 4yo son of Dark Angel, Silver Line, could go well off a mark of 98 with Pat Cosgrave in the plate. This fella was below par on his last start when upped to 10f at Goodwood, but he ran a cracker on his last outing over a mile.

That run came at Sandown (8f gd/fm) and Silver Line was a bit unlucky not to finish closer to the winner, Via Serendipity. Lewis Edmunds didn’t get the clearest of runs, but when the gap eventually came Silver Line finished with a wet sail for 3rd, beaten just over a length. Via Serendipity has since won off a 5lb higher mark so the form looks decent, and with senior jockey Pat Cosgrave taking over in the saddle, I think a big run could be forthcoming at odds of 22/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SILVER LINE E/W @ 22/1 NAP
 

Coronet looks a rock solid e/w bet in the Yorkshire Oaks.

Race 4

The feature race of the day at York is the Group 1 12f Yorkshire Oaks and Sea Of Class is a short price to complete the four timer. However, she won’t have it all her own way with the likes of Laurens and Coronet in the field. I am a big fan of Coronet, and though she has to give weight away to her two younger rivals, I think she has the ability to put it up to both of them.

She just failed to beat Waldgeist over this trip on good to soft in the Group 1 Grand Prix Saint-Cloud, missing out in a head bobbing finish by a nose. She was no match for the Michael Stoute pair last time at Royal Ascot, but she will appreciate running against her own sex this time. She won the Group 2 Middleton Stakes here back in May over 10f (gd/fm) so she has course form in the book and 12f is her optimum trip. Frankie rides, Gosden’s horses are flying and at 6/1 I can’t see Coronet finishing out of the first three.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: CORONET E/W @ 6/1 NB

Step Up To 6f Will Suit Kinks At Deauville

I was absolutely delighted with Dakota Gold’s run in the Great St.Wilfrid at Ripon. He drifted out to 33s before the off but he broke well and travelled nicely throughout the race on the far side. Unfortunately, the stand’s side was the place to be but Dakota Gold finished strongly to grab 2nd and show that 6f is his optimum trip right now. He might be alright over a stiff 5f in a big field if they went a strong early pace, but if it was up to me I would stick to 6f for the moment with him. He definitely has a nice pot in him at some stage.
 

Kinks could flourish over an extra furlong.

Our last foray to France ended in defeat with Romanised, although I remain convinced that he could have placed if ridden differently. I am heading back to Deauville on Sunday for more punishment, and I think Kinks looks a cracking each way bet returned to easy ground and stepped up to 6f for the first time in his career in the Group 1 Prix Morny at 14.45. The son of Sixties Icon was an unlucky loser last time in my opinion, and he hasn’t had a clear run for his last three starts.

At Sandown he was denied a clear run on a couple of occasions in the Listed National Stakes (5f gd/fm) but he stayed on well in the closing stages to be beaten just under 3L for the win. It was a similar story at Royal Ascot where Charles Bishop had to momentarily stop riding at a crucial time and after that it was always going to be hard to reach the principals. However, he kept on well and was only beaten 3L at the finish, closing all the way to the line.

Last time out in the Super Sprint, again over 5f on rattling ground, Joe Fanning had to sit and suffer on Kinks who was arguably travelling best at the 2f pole. When the gap finally came Fanning got to work and Kinks quickened up well, staying on strongly all the way to the line to grab 3rd, beaten less than a length for the win. He was doing all his best work at the finish and I think the 6f course at Deauville is really going to suit, as will the easy ground.

Kinks produced possibly one of his most impressive displays on his sole start on an easy surface, beating Broken Spear by over 2L. He made all that day and kept on strongly, but he is likely to be ridden more patiently at Deauville. Kinks had beaten Tin Hat by a head at Bath on quick ground on his previous start, again shaping as if further would suit. His pedigree suggests that 6f should be right up his street too.

Mick Channon has a good record when sending horses over to Deauville. He has had 36 runners with 9 places and 6 winners, not a bad strike rate at all. Charles Bishop is back aboard Kinks on Sunday and hopefully he finds a clear passage this time. I think there are doubts about a few of the more fancied horses on soft ground, and at odds of 33/1 I think Kinks could be the one to take advantage if the favourites falter. He is well worth chancing each way at that price.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 2.45 DEAUVILLE-KINKS E/W @ 33/1

Dods Could Strike Great St Wilfrid Gold With Dakota At Ripon

To say I was frustrated by the run of You Little Beauty for us earlier this week is an understatement. It looked as though she was well backed early in the day with the 25s disappearing and she was as short as 10/1 with a couple of firms. However, by the time of the first show she was available to back at 33/1, eventually going off at 20s. She certainly started like a drifter to 33/1, falling out of the stalls, and after that it was game over. I still believe she has ability, and she will pop up at a price before the season is out.
 

Michael Dods steps Dakota Gold back up to 6f at Ripon.

Tomorrow the Great St Wilfrid Sprint is the highlight of a nice card at Ripon and I think Dakota Gold could go well for Michael Dods and Connor Beasley. This headstrong 4yo son of Equiano has been poor on his last three starts over 5f this season, with slow starts and wide rides major contributors to his below par performances. He has been struggling to settle too, and I think this step back up to 6f is long overdue.

His best effort this season came when beaten a length by the reliable Soie D’Leau off a mark of 99 over 5f at Thirsk back in May. Once again, he pulled hard in the early stages and in the circumstances he did well to finish so close to the first two. He was beaten 7L on his next start at York, but he was drawn low that day and the high numbers fared way better. He was slowly away and hampered at Newcastle on his penultimate start, and he also wore a hood.

The hood experiment was abandoned last time at Pontefract but it made no difference as he was very free, had no cover and raced widest of all. I think he will relish the step back up to 6f at Ripon and he should be able to get cover from his nice draw in stall 7. His career form figures at further than 5f read 3105221, and that is why I am amazed it has taken Mr. Dods so long to step him back up to this distance. His 5th came behind Accidental Agent incidentally, beaten just 2L and conceding 2lb.

Regular partner Connor Beasley is back in the plate, replacing apprentice Callum Rodriguez who has ridden the last twice. Beasley has been on board for all three of Dakota Gold’s wins, the last of which came at York in July of last year off 87. His run behind Soie D’Leau off 99 shows that his current mark of 91 is well within his capabilities, and at odds of 25/1 he has to be worth chancing each way back at his optimum trip for the first time this season.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 3.15 RIPON-DAKOTA GOLD E/W @ 25/1 (5 PLACES)

Soft Ground Could Suit Duffield’s Charge At Thirsk

I thought that Romanised ran a nice enough race in France at the weekend, but I thought it was a bit of a farcical contest. Yes, Alpha Centauri was a deserved winner and she is probably the best miler of her generation. However, I was bemused watching the race unfold with two lines of horses in single file, and I don’t understand why Success Days and Romanised didn’t tack across to the others as soon as the stalls opened. Particularly as Success Days was in as a supposed pacemaker.

It is no secret at this stage that Ken Condon’s charge needs a furiously run mile to be seen at his best, so I thought Success Days would veer across early, gun it and try to get Alpha Centauri out of her comfort zone. Instead, he stayed in the middle with Romanised tracking him at what looked a leisurely gallop to me, and I wasn’t surprised to see Romanised getting done for toe late on and missing out on a place. It was a good run in the circumstances, but he could have finished closer if different tactics were used.
 

Barry McHugh has a fine record when riding 2yos for Ann Duffield.

Tomorrow I am going to take a chance on a nursery handicap debutant at Thirsk who I believe will be suited by the soft ground and the step back up to 6f. You Little Beauty has had three quick maiden runs over 7f, 6f and 5f and she has been handed an opening mark of 52. She was well beaten on her first two starts at 6f and 7f on good to firm, but I think she was a big eye catcher on good to soft over 5f at Beverley last time.

She was drawn wide, was slow away and Franny Norton was in no panic to put her into the race. She could only manage to finish 8th of 10, but she was only 4.5L behind the winner and she was doing all her best work at the finish, under what can only be described as a very considerate ride. She didn’t feel the warmth of the whip once and I think there could be more to come if she is ridden a bit more forcefully.

In fairness to Norton, she did look a bit green when he started shoving her along and it may well be the case that she is a filly that needs more time. However, I think that Beverley run demonstrated that she definitely has ability, and she didn’t seem to have any issues on the easy ground. In fact, she seemed to quite like it. Her pedigree suggests there is a chance she will like it even softer and the ground at Thirsk is currently very much on the soft side.

Another cause for optimism regarding You Little Beauty’s chance at Thirsk is the booking of Barry McHugh. He has an excellent frame hitting strike rate of almost 62% when riding 2yos for Ann Duffield, with 3 wins and 13 places from just 26 rides on Juveniles for the stable. If You Little Beauty can get away on level terms off her opening mark of 52 McHugh could enhance that superb record, and at odds of 25/1 she has to be worth a small each way investment.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 5.50 THIRSK-YOU LITTLE BEAUTY E/W @ 25/1

Don’t Write Off Romanised At Deauville

I had a blog written for Saturday but the price collapsed before I posted so I let it go. However, luckily enough the horse finished nowhere so it turned out to be a bullet dodged! The big race in Ireland on Sunday is the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and I think Advertise is going to be hard to beat. Martyn Meade’s son of Showcasing hosed up at Newmarket last time and he should be suited by the stiff finish at the Curragh.

However, he is a bit too short to be tipping up on here, so I am turning my attention to France where there is a cracking Group 1 mile contest at Deauville. Jessie Harrington’s horses are in rare form at the minute and Alpha Centauri is a short price to make it four Group 1 wins on the spin. She has won her last two starts by a combined total of 10.5L and in receipt of weight from the boys she will be popular with favourite backers.

However, the ground has gone soft at Deauville and the daughter of Mastercraftsman has shown all her best form on good or good to firm. Her two runs on soft/heavy resulted in heavy defeats, though in fairness to the filly one of those was her seasonal reappearance so she can be forgiven that. Whether she will have the same electric turn of foot on this easier surface remains to be seen, and I am going to take her on with our old pal Romanised.

Ken Condon’s son of Holy Roman Emperor did us a huge favour when he landed the Irish Guineas at the Curragh and he has been overlooked here again due to a poor run at Ascot. However, that race just didn’t pan out for him and he wasn’t in love with the track or rattling quick ground according to his trainer.
 

Romanised looks well overpriced.

Just like Alpha Centauri, Romanised has questions to answer on soft ground but his pedigree suggests that there is every chance he will relish it. Holy Roman Emperor has had 55 winners from 223 horses of his that have run on soft, a respectable strike rate of 25%. Romanised has three siblings that have all either won or run well on soft or heavy ground so the signs are good that he will handle the conditions well at Deauville.

Dusty Foley reckons that Ken Condon has Romanised in an ideal place physically heading into the race and his stable mate Success Days will ensure that there is a proper gallop. Although he is most likely there as a pacemaker, Success Days will absolutely relish the soft ground and though this trip might be a bit too short for him he could surprise with a big run at 80/1. I know I will be having a little each way saver anyway!

As Romanised demonstrated at the Curragh, he is best when coming late off a fast pace and hopefully this race will be run in a similar fashion to the Irish 2000 Guineas. I think the bookies have overreacted to his poor run last time and odds of 22/1 look far too big about Romanised on Sunday. If he handles the ground I think he can bounce back to form and go very close in what should be an absolute cracker of a race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 3.20 DEAUVILLE-ROMANISED E/W @ 22/1

Lucca Looks Overpriced At Galway

It is the final day of the Galway Races and it isn’t the strongest of cards today. However, I like the look of one at a decent price for a shrewd handler in the penultimate 14f handicap, and I reckon Lucca could put in a big performance now returned to easier ground.
 

Lucca ran a lovely race at Galway last season.

This son of Echo Of Light ran a cracker here last year to finish 4th off 65 and he is only 4lb higher here. He was beaten 6L from a wide draw in stall 12 last year and he is better drawn this year in stall 8. Lucca had a nice run on his seasonal comeback when 3rd to Total Demolition at the Curragh and the ground was too quick for him last time.

He will appreciate the return to a more forgiving surface at Galway and as his last win at Navan showed (14f yld), he should have no issues getting up the hill. Danny Sheehy rode last time at the Curragh but his usual pilot, Ronan Whelan, is back in the plate for today’s contest. He has been on board for all three of Lucca’s wins, so that has to be viewed as a positive.

His trainer, Jarlath Fahey, has had just the one runner at the festival this week and Dream Walker ran an absolute cracker to be 5th behind Riven Light, beaten less than 3L. I think Lucca could produce an even better performance for Fahey at Ballybrit today, and at odds of 20/1 he is a confident each way selection.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 5.30 GALWAY LUCCA E/W @ 20/1

Related Looks Weighted To Go Well At Goodwood

The quality of fare at the Galway Races goes rapidly downhill once the weekend arrives and I am going to look elsewhere for today’s selection. Paul Midgley is a trainer who has the knack of getting the best out of experienced sprinters and off a mark of just 84 I think Related has strong each way claims in the opener at Goodwood today at 1.50.
 

Paul Midgely does well with his sprinters.

This 8yo son of Kheleyf was an excellent 2nd in this contest two years ago off a mark of 92, beaten just a neck by Hoof It. Given his fine record at Goodwood it is hard to believe that this is his first run back at the track since. He has career form figures of 321092 at the Sussex track and his win came off a mark of 83, just a pound lower than the rating he runs off here.

Joe Fanning has been booked for the ride and he was beaten just a neck on this fella two runs back at Doncaster off a mark of 81. Related wasn’t at his very best last time at Epsom when beaten 7L in 4th but he was very slowly away and in fairness to the horse he kept on well to snatch 4th in the closing stages from an impossible position.

I think he could go a lot closer if breaking on level terms at Goodwood, and if he repeats the form of his run at Doncaster he could easily hit the frame. He was drawn 7 when second in this two years ago and he has been handed another decent draw this year in stall 9. This isn’t as strong a renewal as the 2016 race either, so off 9lb lower at odds of 22/1 I think Related is worth a small interest each way in an open looking race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 1.50 GOODWOOD: RELATED E/W @ 22/1

Galway Races 2018: Day 4 Preview and Tips

Race 1

Nothing appeals as being particularly overpriced here. No bet.

Race 2

The two Willie Mullins entrants at the top of the market look to be a fair way clear on the figures and barring accidents it is hard to see Cadmium getting turned over in this 18f Grade 3 Novice Chase. He handles all sorts of ground and he has won 3 of his last 5 chase starts. Cadmium is the choice of Ruby Walsh and if he runs to his official mark of 147 he is going to be a tough nut to crack. However, I think the each way value in this contest lies with The Last Marju, a 6yo son of Marju who is trained by shrewd handler Denis Cullen.

He was 11L behind Cadmium on his penultimate start, his chase debut, and he got his head in front last time for Denis O’Regan at Killarney (17f gd). He seems to like yielding ground and both his career wins have come over 17f so another furlong should pose no problems. He has run well at Galway before, he looks a much better chaser than hurdler and at odds of 25/1 I think that he could sneak a place for each way backers.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: THE LAST MARJU E/W @ 25/1

Race 3

Big Bad Sal didn’t run well for us on Day 2 but I am hoping another Harry Rogers inmate hits the frame at a nice each way price in this contest. Remarkable Lady scored in this race last year and the 5yo daughter of Zoffany seems to come alive when she runs at Ballybrit. Her form figures over todays course and distance read 2812 and she has never been out of the first two places at the festival.
  

Remarkable Lady won this last year off just a pound higher.

Rogers is obviously hoping that lightning can strike twice with this hardy mare who will be partnered by Sean Davis. He is worth every ounce of his 7lb claim and he has won twice on Remarkable Lady from four rides, including when she won this last year. She is only a pound higher for her repeat bid, she will like the ground and she hasn’t been handed a terrible draw in stall 9. I think she looks overpriced at 16/1 and an each way interest is advised.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: REMARKABLE LADY E/W @ 16/1 NAP

Race 4

Eleven fillies will go to post for this 7f Listed heat and it looks an open enough contest for the grade. The clear form pick is Yulong Gold Fairy who is the 3/1 favourite. She was only just over 4L behind Alpha Centauri in the 1000 Guineas at the Curragh back in May and she went close in a heavy ground Group 3 on her seasonal return at Leopardstown. Hence looks the biggest threat on the ratings, but I think she would prefer a sounder surface.

In fact, plenty of the fillies in this field would have preferred if the rain had stayed away so it would be no surprise to see something at a bigger price sneak some black type. One horse that won’t have any issues on the soft ground is Rickrack and though she has a lot to find on the figures, I think she could make a bold bid from the front. She has form over further and if Colm O’Donoghue goes hard from the outset she could run the finish out of some of these. At odds of 20/1 she is the each way pick, though Yulong Gold Fairy looks the most likely winner.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: RICKRACK E/W @ 20/1; YULONG GOLD FAIRY WIN 3/1

Race 5

No bet for me in this trappy novice hurdle.

Race 6

The Galway Hurdle is the biggest race of the week at Ballybrit and 20 horses will line up hoping to earn a slice of the monstrous 300k pot. By all accounts the ground was riding yielding on Wednesday and with the weather due to get better tomorrow, the ground is likely to improve to good to yielding rather than turn softer. Regular readers of the blog will be familiar with my selection for the Galway Hurdle, and I am praying that he finally shows the ability that I am sure he possesses.

Project Bluebook ran well here last year.

I have put up Project Bluebook on more than one occasion in the past, including for this race last year. I thought he was given a poor ride that day but he still managed to stay on from an impossible position for 6th off a mark of 141. That run showed he could handle the track and I am hoping he is ridden a bit closer to the pace today. If he is, I can see him running a huge one off a 6lb lower mark and at odds of 16/1 I think Project Bluebook could go very well.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: PROJECT BLUEBOOK  E/W @ 16/1 NB

Race 7

This 18 runner 12f handicap looks an exceedingly tricky puzzle to solve and I am going to take a chance on one at a huge price for small stakes. Tale Of Woe runs off a mark of 66 with Kevin Manning in the plate and on the form of his second career start in a maiden at Navan (15f hvy) I think he is capable of making his presence felt off that rating.

Tale Of Woe finished 2nd at Navan to Art Of Security, beaten 3/4L, and he went close off 77 on his last flat start. Great Trango was 4th, just over a length behind the selection, and he hosed up in the concluding race here last night off 74. Tale Of Woe has to bounce back from a poor run last time, but if he gets back to the form of that Navan run he could stay on late for a place at odds of 40/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: TALE OF WOE E/W @ 40/1

Race 8

No bet for me in this bumper. Martin Brassil seemed confident of a big run from his horse You Raised Me Up when interviewed on television after his Wednesday winner and he could be the one to be on at 4/1.

Galway Races 2018: Day 3 Preview and Tips

Race 1

Debuchet is a short price favourite for this but he is not one for maximum faith. I expected big things from him last season but he never really fired and he has yet to deliver on the promise of his excellent Cheltenham Champion Bumper run behind Fayonagh. This looks a gilt edged opportunity for him to bounce back, and if he produces his best he should win.
 

The Shark has an interesting contender in Another Cyclone.

At a much bigger price I am going to take a chance on Another Cyclone for the Shark Hanlon and Rachael Blackmore. This lightly raced 7yo full brother to Hidden Cyclone produced the best run of his career in a bumper here back in 2015 and he made a satisfactory hurdling debut at Ballinrobe, despite pulling a shoe. The cheekpieces are on, the step up to 2m 5f should suit and at 33/1 a small each way interest is advised.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ANOTHER CYCLONE @ 33/1

Race 2

The one I like at a decent price in this 21f handicap hurdle is the Henry de Bromhead trained Plouios. I was very impressed with the manner of this son of Milan’s maiden hurdle win at Kilbeggan on his penultimate start (19f sft) and he can be forgiven a poor effort on quicker ground at Roscommon last time out in a Novice. The rain has been spilling all afternoon in Galway and with conditions likely to ease I think Plouios can outrun his odds with Mark Walsh doing the steering.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: PLOUIOS E/W @ 18/1 

Race 3

At a nice price I am going to take a chance on Drakaina for Paul Power in this 2 mile handicap hurdle. This daughter of Oscar has been running consistently well over timber and she should be able to reverse the form of her 1L defeat to Like An Open Book at Clonmel back in October of last year thanks to a big swing in the weights. She was a winner off 97 for this jockey her last run on soft, she had a run on the level earlier this month to put her right for this and at odds of 20/1 I think she could go very well off a mark of 105.   

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DRAKAINA E/W @ 20/1.

Race 4

No bet.

Race 5

One of the biggest races of the week at the Galway Festival is the Plate, a 2m 6f chase that requires a mix of stamina, speed and jumping ability. Plenty of shrewd judges like the chances of Calino D’Airy for de Bromhead and Bryan Cooper and if you look at his two course wins back in October over 18f on soft and heavy ground it is easy to see why he is fancied. The rain has arrived at the right time for him and a big run would come as no surprise.
 

If Snow Falcon puts in a clear round he can go close.

Snow Falcon is a horse that has failed to complete on his last two starts but he boasts some strong form over fences and he was only 5L behind Monalee in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown in February (21f sft). His excellent record at Navan suggests he should come up the Galway hill well, he has gone well fresh in the past and he won’t mind the rain that has fallen. If Sean Flanagan can get him into a rhythm early I think he could go close and at odds of 18/1 he is the each way selection.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SNOW FALCON E/W @ 18/1

Race 6

A field of 13 3yos will line up for this 8.5f handicap and a case can be made for quite a few of them. The one I like at a big price is Big Bad Sal for Harry Rogers and Chris Hayes. This 3yo filly has a good record at Ballybrit, finishing 3rd to Warm The Voice in a maiden at the festival last year and following that up with a good 2nd behind Coeur D’Amour.

Both of those good runs came on soft ground and her trainer will be very pleased to see that the rain has come. She hasn’t got the best of draws in stall 13 but plenty of horses have already overcome high draws this week. I think a repeat of her run behind Warm The Voice will be enough to see Big Bad Sal hit the frame and at odds of 18/1 she is the each way pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: BIG BAD SAL  E/W @ 18/1 NAP

Race 7

The closing race on Day 3 of the Galway Festival is a 16.5f flat handicap and the one I like at a monstrous price is Nelson Road for John Joe Murphy with Daniel Redmond claiming 7lb. This son of Mount Nelson’s recent form figures do not make for good reading, but he has been running on quick ground that doesn’t suit. The ground will be a lot more to his liking at Galway and his last run on soft was a good one.

That came at Killarney back in May when he was beaten a length over 17f off a mark of 68. His career form figures at 2 miles or further on soft ground read 12, Daniel Redmond’s claim means he effectively 4lb lower than for his last win and at odds of 33/1 I think that Nelson Road could surprise with a big run.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: NELSON ROAD E/W @ 33/1 NB