I had a blog written for Saturday but the price collapsed before I posted so I let it go. However, luckily enough the horse finished nowhere so it turned out to be a bullet dodged! The big race in Ireland on Sunday is the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and I think Advertise is going to be hard to beat. Martyn Meade’s son of Showcasing hosed up at Newmarket last time and he should be suited by the stiff finish at the Curragh.
However, he is a bit too short to be tipping up on here, so I am turning my attention to France where there is a cracking Group 1 mile contest at Deauville. Jessie Harrington’s horses are in rare form at the minute and Alpha Centauri is a short price to make it four Group 1 wins on the spin. She has won her last two starts by a combined total of 10.5L and in receipt of weight from the boys she will be popular with favourite backers.
However, the ground has gone soft at Deauville and the daughter of Mastercraftsman has shown all her best form on good or good to firm. Her two runs on soft/heavy resulted in heavy defeats, though in fairness to the filly one of those was her seasonal reappearance so she can be forgiven that. Whether she will have the same electric turn of foot on this easier surface remains to be seen, and I am going to take her on with our old pal Romanised.
Ken Condon’s son of Holy Roman Emperor did us a huge favour when he landed the Irish Guineas at the Curragh and he has been overlooked here again due to a poor run at Ascot. However, that race just didn’t pan out for him and he wasn’t in love with the track or rattling quick ground according to his trainer.
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| Romanised looks well overpriced. |
Just like Alpha Centauri, Romanised has questions to answer on soft ground but his pedigree suggests that there is every chance he will relish it. Holy Roman Emperor has had 55 winners from 223 horses of his that have run on soft, a respectable strike rate of 25%. Romanised has three siblings that have all either won or run well on soft or heavy ground so the signs are good that he will handle the conditions well at Deauville.
Dusty Foley reckons that Ken Condon has Romanised in an ideal place physically heading into the race and his stable mate Success Days will ensure that there is a proper gallop. Although he is most likely there as a pacemaker, Success Days will absolutely relish the soft ground and though this trip might be a bit too short for him he could surprise with a big run at 80/1. I know I will be having a little each way saver anyway!
As Romanised demonstrated at the Curragh, he is best when coming late off a fast pace and hopefully this race will be run in a similar fashion to the Irish 2000 Guineas. I think the bookies have overreacted to his poor run last time and odds of 22/1 look far too big about Romanised on Sunday. If he handles the ground I think he can bounce back to form and go very close in what should be an absolute cracker of a race.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: 3.20 DEAUVILLE-ROMANISED E/W @ 22/1
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