Tuesday 19 June 2018

Royal Ascot Day 2 Preview And Tips


Race 1: Queen Mary Stakes

The opening race on Day 2 of the Royal Ascot meeting is the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes, a sprint over the minimum distance of 5f for 2yo fillies. This looks an exceedingly tricky puzzle to solve as it is very difficult to weigh up the form. American raider Chelsea Cloisters is the clear favourite for Ascot assassin Frankie Dettori and Wesley Ward, a trainer that has a fine record at this meeting. This filly hosed up by 8L over 4.5f on her debut at Keeneland but at odds of 11/4 I would prefer to take a chance on something each way at a bigger price.
 
Karl Burke has his string in red hot form.

The one I like for each way purposes is the Karl Burke trained daughter of Garswood, Little Kim. This filly made a big impression on me with the manner of her debut win at Carlisle (5f gd) two weeks ago. She travelled into the race well, and once Ben Curtis gave her a couple of smacks she displayed a nice turn of foot to put the race to bed. Her half sister was 3rd in the Queen Mary in 2017 so she is bred for the job, and at odds of 40/1 she is the each way pick with the Karl Burke team in outstanding form.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: LITTLE KIM E/W @ 40/1

Race 2: Queen’s Vase Stakes

Crimson Rosette ran a cracking race for us a couple of weeks ago and I think that Charlie Fellowes has another horse that could be underestimated by the bookies in Jeremiah. This 3yo son of Kheleyf has run respectably on both starts in handicap company this season, firstly on the all weather at Chelmsford (14f) when 3rd. He followed that up with another good run on ground plenty soft for him at Doncaster when 2nd off a mark of 80.

He is coming into this race with a mark of 81 which obviously leaves him with a huge amount to find with the likes of Nelson (111) and Kew Gardens (108). However, I think you might see a different horse on quick ground, as his best maiden effort came on good to firm at Newmarket last season. His Tiger Hill dam is a half sister to the dam of Duncan, a Group 2 winner over 14f on good to firm, so he is bred to be competitive at this level. Fellowes doesn’t seem to be the type to tilt at windmills and I think Jeremiah could outrun his odds of 40/1 in first time cheek pieces for Oisin Murphy.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: JEREMIAH E/W @ 40/1

Race 3: Duke Of Cambridge Stakes

The third race on Day 2 of the Royal meeting at Ascot is the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, another one just for the girls over a trip of a mile. Aidan O’Brien drew a blank on Day 1 with a couple of his horses running particularly poorly and he will be hoping that Hydrangea can get him on the scoreboard on Wednesday. This filly is the clear form pick, but she was beaten at a short price last time and she looks skinny enough again at just 7/4 in what looks a pretty open contest, especially as she concedes weight to all of her rivals.
 
Arabian Hope has a fine record when fresh.

The one I am interested from an each way perspective is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained 4yo Arabian Hope. This daughter of Distorted Humour will need to be at her best on her seasonal reappearance, but she did win first time up last year at Kempton. She was returning from 51 days off when landing a Listed contest at York, so clearly she goes well fresh. She should beat Wilamina on a form line through Wuheida, Oisin Murphy has an outstanding record when riding for Bin Suroor and the ground has come in her favour. At 16/1 Arabian Hope is worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ARABIAN HOPE E/W @ 16/1

Race 4: Prince Of Wales's Stakes

The feature race on Day 2 of Royal Ascot is the 10f Prince Of Wales's Stakes, a Group 1 contest over 10f that sees a total of 7 horse go to post. Cracksman, unbeaten since his narrow defeat by Capri in the Irish Derby last year, is a warm order to complete a six timer and given the form of Frankie and John Gosden on Tuesday he is going to be extremely popular with punters. However, he has yet to race on good to firm, he needed every inch of 12f to win last time and back down in trip I think he could be vulnerable.
 
Eminent looks a huge price at 12/1. 

Eminent has been written off by many after a poor reappearance run at Chester, but nothing went right for him that day as he pulled far too hard and he had a fibrillating heart post race too. I think it is safe to put a line through that run, and on Epsom Derby form there is nothing between him and the favourite. Eminent beat Salouen by a much further margin than Cracksman when they met at Deauville last season (10f gd) and this is Eminent’s optimum trip. He will relish the ground, he holds strong form claims and at odds of 12/1 he is capable of causing an upset.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: EMINENT E/W @ 12/1 NAP

Race 5: Royal Hunt Cup

As far as punting goes, the Royal Hunt Cup is as challenging as it gets. A maximum field of 30 horses will take each other on in this handicap on the straight mile and usually a high draw is an advantage, but that can often depend where the early pace in the race is. Last season’s winner Zhui Feng is back to defend his crown off top weight, but he faces a tough task off an 8lb higher mark. Seniority is the favourite to complete a 3 timer for the Queen, and she would be a popular winner at the Royal meeting.

One I like at a massive price is Surrey Hope for Joe Tuite and Ed Greatrex from a nice draw in stall 33. This son of Lemon Drop Kid races off a mark of 96 and he showed he could be competitive off that rating when a good 3rd on his seasonal comeback at Newbury (8f gd/fm). He was just over a length behind Ripp Orf who won the Victoria Cup here on his previous start. A line can be put through his last effort when drawn out in the car park at Chelmsford and if he was coming here after that Newbury run he would be a much shorter price.

His trainer Joe Tuite is on record as saying this is the best horse he has ever trained, and that is saying something when you consider that he won an Ebor and a November Handicap with Litigant. Ed Greatrex has 5 wins and 18 top 4 finishes from just 45 rides for Tuite, and he was runner up on his only previous ride on Surrey Hope. The horse will relish the ground, he has a nice draw and at odds of 50/1 he is the each way selection.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SURREY HOPE E/W @ 50/1

Race 6: Jersey Stakes

23 horses will line up for the 7f Group 3 Jersey Stakes and one of the three fillies in the field, Could It Be Love, is the 11/2 favourite Could It Be Love. This daughter of War Front comes here after a fine effort in the Irish 1000 Guineas behind Alpha Centauri and she takes a big drop in class here. Being by War Front there is every chance she could improve again on her first start on genuinely fast ground and she looks a worthy favourite.
 
Owen Burrows could have a good one in Tabdeed.

However, at a bigger price I think Tabdeed falls into the could be anything category for Owen Burrows and Dane O’Neill. This son of Havana Gold won impressively on debut at Leicester (6f gd) and the runner up in that race, Yafta, won 3 of her next 4 starts and is now rated 105. Tabdeed absolutely hosed up on his only subsequent start at Nottingham last month and he seemed to relish the quick ground. He has a lovely pedigree, he is completely unexposed and at odds of 20/1 he could go well for each way players.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: TABDEED E/W @ 20/1 NB

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