Newmarket Friday Live ITV Races

We have a rare treat for a Friday this week with a quartet of quality contests due to be screened live on ITV4. It is Cambridgeshire weekend at Newmarket and on Day 2 there are four pattern level races for punters to get stuck into. The Listed Rosemary Stakes kicks off the action at 1.50pm and you will find my thoughts on that race and the other three live contests below.

Ellthea has some strong course form in the book behind Laurens.

Race 1

First up on Friday at HQ is the Listed Rosemary Stakes, a mile contest for fillies and mares aged 3yo and up. With no rain forecast it looks like the ground will be good or better. Even with her 3lb penalty, Unforgettable Filly looks the one to beat off a rating of 111 and Hugo Palmer’s 5yo daughter of Sepoy can currently be backed at odds of 11/4. She hosed up in a Listed race by 8L at Haydock last time out and if she repeats that she will take all the beating.

However, she can’t always be relied upon to produce her best, as her overall record of four wins from fourteen starts indicates. At a price, I think Ellthea could bounce back to form for Karl Burke and Tom Marquand. This 3yo filly was reportedly in season for most of last year, but she hit form with a vengeance in September, winning two on the bounce. She ran a huge race behind stable mate Laurens here in the Fillies’ Mile in October, beaten just over 4L (8f gd). If she can repeat that she could go well for each way backers at odds of 11/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ELLTHEA E/W @ 11/1 NAP

Race 2

Mia Tesoro is a horse that has been on my radar ever since I wrote an ante-post preview for the Oaks earlier this year. I was very impressed by her run behind Wuheida here over 9f (gd/fm) and I thought 12f would really suit. Charlie Fellowes swerved the Oaks and instead ran her in a Listed contest at Nottingham (10f) and Mia Tesoro relished the extra furlong, staying on strongly to get up close to home and score by half a length from Titi Makfi.

Mia Tesoro looks well worth a crack at this trip.

She didn’t run to form next time when upped in class to Group 3 company on the all weather over the same trip at Newcastle, beaten 6L. However, it was more like it at Sandown last time when she dropped back down into Listed company (10f gd). She stayed on well for 2nd behind Chain Of Daises for the runner up spot, shaping as though she would appreciate further. This daughter of Danehill Dancer will be ridden by Jim Crowley who has won 5/8 when riding for Fellowes. At odds of 20/1 she is worth chancing upped in trip to 12f for the first time in what looks an open Group 3.

  

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MIA TESORO E/W @ 20/1 NB

Race 3

The 7f Rockfel Stakes is a Group 2 race for 2yo fillies and I like the look of a maiden at a big price. Model Guest looks to be a well named filly because she has been a model of consistency this season. This beautifully bred daughter of Showcasing has only finished out of the frame once in five starts and she has improved with every run for George Margarson. She ran a stormer here on the July course in a Group 3 behind Main Edition, staying on well for 3rd, beaten just over 3L.

George Margarson could have a talented filly on his hands.

She was a shade unlucky not to get off the mark returned to novice company last time out, coming off worse when she bumped the winner close to home. I think the application of cheekpieces could make a big difference to Model Guest and the booking of Jamie Spencer suggests she will be ridden cold and produced late. Spencer is underrated when riding from the front too though, so maybe she will be ridden forward. Whatever tactics are employed I think this filly will prove to be better than her current rating of 93 and at 22/1 she is the each way pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MODEL GUEST E/W @ 22/1

Race 4

Only five horses go to post for the Group 2 Joel Stakes, a mile contest for colts and geldings aged 3yo and up. Our old friend Accidental Agent should be more at home back on quicker ground and dropped in class after a poor effort on good to soft in France.

On a line through Lord Glitters he has very little to find with the favourite Mustashry but with such a small field this race could get tactical and conceding weight to the others may put paid to Accidental Agent’s chances. Nothing appeals as being overpriced for this race and at the prices I will not be having a bet.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: NO BET