What a week of racing it was at Royal Ascot (apart from Saturday...). We nailed two winners, Docklands at 25/1 and Cercene at 100/1 and we also had them in our ante-post e/w lucky 15, both advised at 25s.
This weekend the focus switches to the Curragh in Ireland for what is a huge weekend on the racing calendar. The Irish Derby is supposedly the showpiece on Sunday but for me, the Pretty Polly on Saturday is a much more appealing race from an each way punting perspective.
The Aidan O’Brien trained 3yo Whirl currently heads the Pretty Polly market at around 2/1. Rated 113, she was a neck runner up behind her stablemate
Minnie Hauk in the Epsom Oaks last time out. Previously an easy winner of a G3
at York over an extended 10f (gd-fm), she will get a hefty weight for age
allowance from her older rivals but 3yos have won only one of the last eight renewals
of this race (Iridessa in 2019) so that has to be a concern for her supporters.
Next Best In Betting
Kalpana is the next best in the betting and she is a serious
filly. Rated 118, she won the Champions Fillies & Mares at Ascot (11.5f,
soft) last October and she ran a blinder here behind Los Angeles and Anmaat in the Tattersalls Gold Cup in May (10.5f, good). With improvement likely
to be forthcoming from that comeback run, if I were backing one of the market
leaders it would most certainly be her.
However, we are in the business of finding horses that
represent each way value at bigger odds and for me, Jancis fits the bill. Trained by Willie McCreery, this lightly raced 4yo ran a fine race in the G2
Lanwades Stakes over 1m here back in late May.
She was dropped out and held up for a customary late run in
that contest but she just got caught in a pocket between the 3f and 2f markers
and Declan McDonogh had to wait longer than ideal to get stuck into her. By the
time she got into the clear the leaders had flown, but she kept on pretty strongly
to just miss out on third and in the end, she was only 3l behind the winner Porta
Fortuna.
Back Up In Trip
On the evidence of that run, she looks well worth a go over
this 1m2f trip. She has already proven she stays 9.5f, going down by 0.5l on
her seasonal return over that trip in a Listed heat at Gowran in early May when
she might just have needed the run.
Not only does that last run suggest she wants 1m2f, the dam
side of her pedigree does too. She is out of a mare who won over 1m4f on fast
ground and her grand-dam, Blameless, is a half-sister to the G2 winner Desert Fire
who showed his best form at 9f-11.5f.
Last season, Jancis’ two wins came on good and good to
yielding ground so she should get her optimum conditions on Saturday. As regards
who will ride, I’d imagine Billy Lee will be on one of Twomey’s entries so
it’ll probably be either McDonogh again or possibly Nathan Crosse. Hopefully
whoever is jocked up on Saturday can chart a clear passage and if they do, Jancis may be
able to hit the frame at odds of 20/1.
2025 Irish Pretty Polly Stakes Ante-Post Tip: Jancis e/w
@ 20/1
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