2025 Champions Day E/W Lucky 15

Last weekend was another disaster. Killavia and Loz Vegas finished out the back of the TV, Saba Desert did likewise and the day was fittingly capped off with modest runs from Gweedore and Bashful Boy in the big handicaps. This is probably the worst run I’ve endured for the best part of two years, hopefully we can turn it around with this 2025 Champions Day E/W Lucky 15.

Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)

No prizes for guessing who I am backing here. Run To Freedom hasn’t won yet for us but he’s been placed for us at 28s, 40s and at 150s in this race in 2022 so he owes us nothing and I’d imagine he’ll be heading to stud after this race, win, lose or draw.

It looks like the ground is going to be decent at Ascot on Saturday and that’s a plus for this 7yo son of Muhaarar. It was good to soft when he ran second in this in 2022 and it was also good to soft when he chased home Shaquille in the July Cup in 2023. It was good to firm when he ran third in the July Cup this year, so once there is good in the ground description Henry Candy’s charge will be fine.

Run To Freedom has run well on plenty of occasions at Ascot so there are no concerns regarding the track. If he can reproduce the form he showed on his penultimate start at Newmarket, he is capable of making a mockery of his massive odds of 50/1.

2025 Champions Day E/W Lucky 15 Tip: Run To Freedom e/w @ 50/1

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)

In our Royal Ascot lucky 15 Docklands got us off to a perfect start in the Queen Anne at 25/1. My main angle for tipping him was his love for Ascot and his liking for quick ground and, if the weather forecast is correct, he is going to get his optimum conditions again here.

In the Queen Anne he beat Rosallion by a nose and it is important to remember that Mark Zahra dropped his whip a furlong out too that day. Since then, Docklands has run just twice and on his last start, in the Jacques le Marois, he ran a massive race to finish a close fourth behind Diego Velazquez, Notable Speech and Dancing Gemini.

He’s had a nice two month break to recover from those exertions and he is back at his beloved Ascot. I’d imagine this has long been the plan given his C&D form figures of 1132221, hopefully he can add another 1, 2 or 3 to that sequence on Saturday at odds of 14/1.

2025 Champions Day E/W Lucky 15 Tip: Docklands e/w @ 14/1

Champion Stakes (Group 1)

The value here surely lies with Ed Walker’s son of Lope De Vega, Almaqam. An ultra-consistent horse, he has had a fine campaign. The undoubtable highlight was his all the way win at Sandown (1m2f, good) in the Brigadier Gerard when he lowered the colours of Ombudsman, the 7/4 jolly here.

Now, to be fair to Ombudsman, he did lack a run whereas Almaqam had one under his belt but even so, he still beat him. Perhaps more patient tactics didn’t suit when Almaqam was beaten by Royal Champion in the York Stakes and it looked like he didn’t stay 1m4f when third at Longchamp last time.

The drop back to 1m2f is a huge plus for this horse and the ground should be ideal for him too. Walker has always said this race was the ultimate aim for this horse, fingers crossed he proves him right at odds of 12/1.

2025 Champions Day E/W Lucky 15 Tip: Almaqam e/w @ 12/1

Balmoral Handicap (Heritage)

Last year Michael Bell landed this valuable prize with Carrytheone. This year, he relies on his 5yo son of Kingman Greek Order and he is capable of running a massive race off a mark of 96.

Formerly trained in the US by William Mott (previous to that by Roger & Harry Charlton), this horse seems to act on any ground. As a 3yo he won on good and good to soft, he was placed in the Cambridgeshire on good to firm and then he ran third in a listed race on heavy.

Since returning to Britain, his best effort came on his first start for Bell in the Hunt Cup at the Royal Meeting. Ridden by Soumillon (who rode Carrytheone to victory here last year), Greek Order was beaten just 1.5l for the win in fourth off 95 and he again ran well at Sandown on his next start off a mark of 97.

He never landed a blow on his last two starts but I am hoping that this race has been the plan ever since that Hunt Cup effort. He’s only 1lb higher here and I am also hoping to see Soumillon jocked up when declarations are made on Thursday. At odds of 25/1, Greek Order is the each way selection.

2025 Champions Day E/W Lucky 15 Tip: Greek Order e/w @ 25/1

-DaveStevos

2025 Newmarket Friday Preview

Arc day saw us land just one place. I tipped the wrong Graffard horse in the big one, Ain’t Nobody was a length off a place in the Abbaye and my NAP Grand Stars probably should have won but a wide trip cost him a place. Onwards we go to HQ on Friday, my 2025 Newmarket Friday preview is below.

1.15 – Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3)

Brussels is the 5/4 favourite here for Ballydoyle. Runner up in the Middle Park last time out, he drops back to the minimum trip for the first time and he will most likely have enough pace to get the job done.

If you take him out of the race, it looks rather open and in the hope that they go a breakneck early gallop, I am going to take a chance on the Havana Grey filly, Palmeira. Zavateri has been the flagbearer for Eve Johnson-Houghton’s juvenile team this year but this filly has had a good season too and she has already picked up some black type.

That came on her penultimate start in a listed heat at Newbury when she was just touched off by Hollywood Treasure after not getting the smoothest of passages. Last time out she finished 4l behind Revival Power in a G2 at Donny.

The winner had the run of the race that day and if he gets taken on for the lead here (hopefully by Aspect Island) and goes too quick, Palmeira may be able to close that gap, stay on late and sneak a place at odds of 66/1.

2025 Newmarket Friday Tip: Palmeira e/w @ 66/1

1.50 – Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3)

This is a big step up from the conditions race she contested last time and she came up short in listed company on her second start at Sandown but even so, I don’t think Tavana should be as big as 25/1 here.

This Havana Grey filly has raced keenly in all three of her starts but it hasn’t stopped her from winning two of them. On debut, she was sent off at 28/1 at Haydock but she made a mockery of those odds to win decisively. She had Evolutionist (since fourth in a Curragh G2) and Isle Of Fernandez (since third in an Ayr G3) back in third and fourth so there is substance to that form.

At Sandown in that listed race it looked like she was ridden to get black type but she just had too much ground to make up. At Newbury last time she showed a willing attitude to get up to beat the 90 rated True Test and I think she is well worth another go in stakes company. If Georgia Dobie can time her challenge right, hopefully Tavana can nick some precious black type at odds of 25/1.

2025 Newmarket Friday Tip: Tavana e/w @ 25/1

2.57 – Fillies’ Mile (Group 1)

With the step up to a mile almost certain to suit, I’m going to take the market leaders on with the beautifully bred Cracksman filly, Moon Target. Trained by the inimitable Sir Mark Prescott, this filly finished just 0.75l behind Precise (15/8 here) on her first run in stakes company at Goodwood.

I think if that race was a furlong further, which this one is, she may have got the better of that rival. Her next run in the May Hill over 1m was admittedly disappointing but she may not have enjoyed the ease in the ground.

Prescott kept her at 7f for her next start in the Rockfel at this venue and again, she ran on well after getting outpaced, shaping like a mile would suit. Her dam, a half-sister to crack miler Inspiral, won at 9.5f and her half-sister won at 1m2f so everything points towards this step back up in trip bringing about more improvement. At odds of 12/1, Moon Target is the e/w selection.

2025 Newmarket Friday Tip: Moon Target e/w @ 12/1 NAP

3.30 – Old Rowley Cup Handicap (Heritage)

Maybe Ismael Mohammed’s C&D maiden winner Minhad can go well at a price here. By Universal, this 3yo has run four times since that C&D success. He was outclassed in a G2 at Ascot (1m4f) then probably didn’t handle soft ground in a Racing League handicap at Yarmouth.

Mohammed stuck blinkers on and dropped his charge back to 1m2f in a Newbury handicap next time and was rewarded with an improved performance. A visor was tried over 1m6f at Chester four weeks ago and he ran another fine race, not quite getting home but holding on for second.

This horse is unexposed in handicaps on good or quicker at this 1m4f trip and given how he has been campaigned, there is every chance this has been a long term plan. With his rider’s 5lb claim he’s effectively in off 76 here and the horse he beat by a head over C&D here is now rated 90. At odds of 22/1, back Minhad e/w.

2025 Newmarket Friday Tip: Minhad e/w @ 22/1 (4 places) NB

-DaveStevos 

2025 Prix de l’Arc De Triomphe Revisited

Unfortunately, our ante-post bet on Map Of Stars has fallen by the wayside. I was hoping he’d run a huge race in his final prep but he never figured after stumbling at the start and Graffard has decided he isn’t ready for the race this year.

Now that the final field is confirmed and the draw has been done, I am going to go in on another Graffard contender. I was tempted by Daryz who has been handed a lovely starting berth in stall 2 but he’s shortening up and at much tastier odds, I think Quisisana is a live contender.

This 5yo daughter of Le Havre has reportedly been hard to keep right. That explains why she has only run eight times in her career (won six of those starts) but Graffard has had a clear run with her this season and she has shown how good a racemare she is.

Hat Trick

She comes into this year’s Arc on the back of a hat-trick of wins at around 1m2f. It was a minor race she won on her reappearance at Compiegne (1m2f, vry soft) but she made short work of her rivals in a 1m2f Chantilly listed race on soft on her next start.

For her next start, Quisisana was pitched into G1 company for the first time in the Prix Romanet and again, she put a quality field to the sword, this time on better ground. The way she quickened to put daylight between herself and the rest of the field was impressive and the gap wasn’t closing as she hit the line strongly.

Unlike her stablemate Daryz, she has raced over 1m4f before and it resulted in a 5l Listed victory at Chantilly. Now, the one worry is the fact that Graffard has stated she is fragile so that has dissuaded me from making her a NAP bet. However, if she is 100% and at her best, Quisisana is more than capable of outrunning her odds of 33/1 from a decent draw in stall 7.

2025 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Tip: Quisisana e/w @ 33/1 (4 places W Hill)

-DaveStevos