Arc day saw us land just one place. I tipped the wrong Graffard horse in the big one, Ain’t Nobody was a length off a place in the Abbaye and my NAP Grand Stars probably should have won but a wide trip cost him a place. Onwards we go to HQ on Friday, my 2025 Newmarket Friday preview is below.
1.15 – Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3)
Brussels is the 5/4 favourite here for Ballydoyle. Runner up
in the Middle Park last time out, he drops back to the minimum trip for the
first time and he will most likely have enough pace to get the job done.
If you take him out of the race, it looks rather open and in
the hope that they go a breakneck early gallop, I am going to take a chance on the
Havana Grey filly, Palmeira. Zavateri has been the flagbearer for Eve
Johnson-Houghton’s juvenile team this year but this filly has had a good season
too and she has already picked up some black type.
That came on her penultimate start in a listed heat at Newbury
when she was just touched off by Hollywood Treasure after not getting the smoothest
of passages. Last time out she finished 4l behind Revival Power in a G2 at
Donny.
The winner had the run of the race that day and if he gets
taken on for the lead here (hopefully by Aspect Island) and goes too quick,
Palmeira may be able to close that gap, stay on late and sneak a place at odds of 66/1.
2025 Newmarket Friday Tip: Palmeira e/w @ 66/1
1.50 – Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3)
This is a big step up from the conditions race she contested
last time and she came up short in listed company on her second start at Sandown
but even so, I don’t think Tavana should be as big as 25/1 here.
This Havana Grey filly has raced keenly in all three of her
starts but it hasn’t stopped her from winning two of them. On debut, she was
sent off at 28/1 at Haydock but she made a mockery of those odds to win
decisively. She had Evolutionist (since fourth in a Curragh G2) and Isle Of
Fernandez (since third in an Ayr G3) back in third and fourth so there is
substance to that form.
At Sandown in that listed race it looked like she was ridden
to get black type but she just had too much ground to make up. At Newbury last
time she showed a willing attitude to get up to beat the 90 rated True Test and
I think she is well worth another go in stakes company. If Georgia Dobie can
time her challenge right, hopefully Tavana can nick some precious black type at
odds of 25/1.
2025 Newmarket Friday Tip: Tavana e/w @ 25/1
2.57 – Fillies’ Mile (Group 1)
With the step up to a mile almost certain to suit, I’m going
to take the market leaders on with the beautifully bred Cracksman filly, Moon
Target. Trained by the inimitable Sir Mark Prescott, this filly finished just
0.75l behind Precise (15/8 here) on her first run in stakes company at
Goodwood.
I think if that race was a furlong further, which this one
is, she may have got the better of that rival. Her next run in the May Hill over 1m was
admittedly disappointing but she may not have enjoyed the ease in the ground.
Prescott kept her at 7f for her next start in the Rockfel at
this venue and again, she ran on well after getting outpaced, shaping like a
mile would suit. Her dam, a half-sister to crack miler Inspiral, won at 9.5f
and her half-sister won at 1m2f so everything points towards this step back up in trip bringing
about more improvement. At odds of 12/1, Moon Target is the e/w selection.
2025 Newmarket Friday Tip: Moon Target e/w @ 12/1 NAP
3.30 – Old Rowley Cup Handicap (Heritage)
Maybe Ismael Mohammed’s C&D maiden winner Minhad can go
well at a price here. By Universal, this 3yo has run four times since that
C&D success. He was outclassed in a G2 at Ascot (1m4f) then probably didn’t
handle soft ground in a Racing League handicap at Yarmouth.
Mohammed stuck blinkers on and dropped his charge back to
1m2f in a Newbury handicap next time and was rewarded with an improved performance.
A visor was tried over 1m6f at Chester four weeks ago and he ran another fine
race, not quite getting home but holding on for second.
This horse is unexposed in handicaps on good or quicker at
this 1m4f trip and given how he has been campaigned, there is every chance this
has been a long term plan. With his rider’s 5lb claim he’s effectively in off
76 here and the horse he beat by a head over C&D here is now rated 90. At
odds of 22/1, back Minhad e/w.
2025 Newmarket Friday Tip: Minhad e/w @ 22/1 (4 places)
NB
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