This used to be a race in which smaller yards had a fighting chance of landing a big pot but these days, bigger yards mostly dominate. Yes, Martin Brassil won it in in 2022 but that was with Longhouse Poet for the Mulryans so it wasn’t really a ‘fairytale’ win. The last properly small trainer to take this prize was Liam Burke with My Murphy in 2016 and those that have been following me from the very start might remember backing him.
As a tipster who somewhat specialises in spotting horses with winning potential from so called lesser yards, the way Irish racing has gone in the last ten years has not made my job easy. For example, in last year’s renewal 14 of the 18 runners were trained by Mullins, Elliott, Cromwell and De Bromhead.
Big Four
This year, the big four are responsible for 23 of the 32
remaining entries and the chances are, one of them will win it. Flying the flag
for the smaller operations is Terence O’Brien with Answer To Kayf. He landed
the Troytown Chase on heavy ground at Navan in fine style back in November off
141 and if it comes up testing at Gowran on Thursday, he should go well
again.
However, he’s only 10/1 and there isn’t much juice in those
odds. Jordans is another interesting runner for Joseph O’Brien. We backed him
in the Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown where he landed the place money for
us in fifth but missed qualifying for the final at Cheltenham. He now reverts
to fences and I think he is better than a 150 chaser, but I’m not sure the son
of Coastal Path wants really soft ground.
Relish Conditions
One horse that looks certain to relish the likely testing conditions is
Tom Gibney’s 2024 Irish Grand National hero Intense Raffles. Less than a year
ago, on his last start at 3m plus on properly soft ground, Intense Raffles got
to within 0.75l of Nick Rockett at Fairyhouse when conceding 3lb. That rival is now rated 169 after his Aintree heroics.
Three of Intense Raffle’s four runs since that excellent
effort have come on good to soft ground and unsurprisingly, he hasn’t fared
well. He pulled up at Aintree, was beaten 19l in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury
and then pulled up in the Welsh National at Chepstow in December.
After those efforts, it is no surprise he is chalked up at
33/1 here but with rain forecast and the ground currently described as soft at
Gowran, he should have his optimum conditions for the first time in almost
a year.
Right-Handed
Another cause for optimism is that Tom Gibney’s charge is
returning to a right-handed track. His career form figures at 3m plus on left-handed
tracks read P8P. Going right-handed, he has amassed form figures of 112.
He admittedly remains 11lb higher than when winning the
Irish National but that run at Fairyhouse last February suggests that he should
be well capable of being competitive off his current rating of 151. Intense
Raffles also likes to race close to the early pace, which is often a plus in
this race and if he gets away well at the start and gets into a prominent position
early, he can outrun his generous looking odds of 33/1.
2026 Thyestes Chase Ante-Post Tip: Intense Raffles e/w @
33/1
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