Thursday, 30 July 2015

Galway Day 5 Preview.

We were back in business yesterday with Sizing Platinum doing the business and lowering the colours of the favourite. Tested went close in the Listed race and Akira looked booked for a place until the final strides. Quick Jack obliged in the big one and Max Dynamite chased him home, so hopefully someone had the forecast! Magic Kitten was a disaster and Tiger Bay Lady a disgrace, but you can't win them all! Below are my selections for Friday at the Festival.

5.10 Handicap Hurdle (16F)

Topweight The Plan Man immediately catches the eye with David Mullins booked, and he is of huge interest off two pounds lower than when last seen over timber. He ran a big race that day in the Swinton at Haydock, a much stronger heat than today's and he warmed up for this with an outing at the Curragh a couple of weeks ago. His trainer is flying, and he is of definite interest with his jockey claiming a valuable 3lb.

To Choose is a horse I know well, and he won for the first time in a handicap last time out at Bellewstown. He has only been raised five pounds for that, and should remain competitive off that mark. He is well thought of by connections, and they would love to have a winner at Galway. However, the rain that is forecast will be no good to his chances, but if it stays dry he is of definite interest.

At a price Gambling Girl is worth a second look for the bang in form Harrington yard, and she warmed up for this with a more  than pleasing effort on the level behind Silver Concorde at Killarney. She is versatile ground wise, has been highly tried over timber and it would be no surprise to see her running well on her handicap hurdle bow.

Selections: The Plan Man 12/1 e/w, Gambling Girl 14/1 e/w.(Only If ground is good To Choose 10/1 e/w).

5.45 Flat Handicap 7F

Dermot Weld is surprisingly having a very quiet week by his standards, and normally one would be more confident about the favourite Palmetto Dunes here. At 6/5 she looks too short though.
A viable alternative could be Mick Mulvany's Prove The Point, who ran an absolute screamer on debut at 50/1. She ran a nice enough race stepped up to Group 3 level on her next start, and at her current odds of 6/1 she definitely rates as the value bet of the race.

Selection: Prove The Point 6/1.

6.15 Handicap Chase 22.5F

Aranhill Chief won twice here last year, a beginners chase followed by this race, and he returns today off a ten pound higher mark. It will be no surprise to see him run well, and he advertised his well being with a gutsy win at Roscommon off a 6lb lower mark than today's. He was tailed off last time out, but I am willing to put a line through that, and man of the moment Denis O'Regan is booked so a big run must be expected. 16s with Bet365 is huge.

Selection: Aranhill Chief 16/1(Bet365) e/w

6.50 Guinness Handicap Flat (11.5F)

Deor is the selection here at the foot of the handicap. Showed minor promise in three maiden runs, but it has been a different story since he has been sent handicapping. His form figures read 242, arguably unlucky on at least one occasion, and he was backed as if defeat was out of the question last time out at Wexford.
He is related to plenty of winners, and indeed his half brother, by Van Nistelrooy,  was a Group 3 and Listed scorer. His full brothers Hikari and Turnofthesun were rated 93 and 86 respectively, both winners over this sort of trip, so surely this fella is better than his rating of just 74.
He is unexposed, having had just the six runs, and his trainer has been in superb form of late. The draw tempers enthusiasm slightly, but I am sure connections will be out to get the money back that they lost on Deor last time out and he is a speculative each way selection.

Selection: Deor 14/1 e/w.

7.25 Flat Maiden

The Weld horse is a full brother to classy operators Labarinto and Price Tag, and surely he will prove a class above these. The Lyons horse is the danger having gone close on his last two runs.

Selection: Pictogram 13/8.

8.00 Flat Handicap (8F)

Easy Boy should probably have won last time out and his mark remains unchanged. He wouldn't want much rain to fall. Tudor City is a huge danger at the foot of the handicap for Tony Martin and Fran Berry, and has the look of a plot horse. However, his pedigree doesn't really suggest that this trip will suit, and at the likely odds I will be swerving this one.

Selection: Easy Boy 7/1.

8.30 Flat Race (13F)

No strong opinion here, Any rain will suit Weld's horse, and although he is a very short price he looks by far the most likely winner. Dark Crusader has won here before, and rates the most likely danger.

Selection: Good Tradition (11/10).









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