Aintree Day 1 Selections

Windforpower didn't run too badly for us earlier and he looked as though he might play a part in the finish a couple of furlongs from home. He was left behind as the others accelerated approaching the closing stages though, and it is likely that he is still not at maximum fitness. I still believe he is well treated, and he will pop up at a big price in the next couple of months.

Thursday sees the Grand National festival at Aintree get under way and some of National Hunt racing's biggest superstars will be on show in Liverpool. Willie Mullins has sent an army of horses over in a bid to seal the trainers title, but the home team are sure to put up a brave fight over the three days. Below are my selections for Day 1 of the festival where there looks sure to be some cut in the ground.

RACE 1   1.40 GRADE 1 NOVICES' CHASE

A competitive race to start this year's Aintree festival and Sizing John is currently shading favouritism after his 7L second to Douvan just 3 weeks ago at Cheltenham. Last year a lot of the horses that ran well at Cheltenham did so again here, but there was an extra week to recover between the two meetings last year so it could be tougher this time.

One horse that has no such worries is Harry Whittington's Arzal, who is currently priced up at 13/2. This 151 rated 6yo son of Vendangeur has had only 4 runs so far this season and his chase debut back in October saw him romp home by 6L in a novice handicap off 129 at Ludolw (16f good). He was even more impressive next time at Newbury (16.5 soft) in another handicap off his revised mark of 136 and he more than doubled the winning margin to 13L.

He was stepped into Grade 2 company next time at Kempton (16f good to soft) in December and he was far from disgraced behind Ar Mad and Vaniteux in 3rd, 5L behind that pair. He closed the gap to just over 3L to Vaniteux on his last run at Doncaster (16.5f good) back in January and he was giving 4lb to that rival on that occasion.

This will be his first start beyond 16.5f since his French days, and on that occasion he was beaten by less than a length on very soft ground. His half brother was an easy winner over 19f on heavy so his pedigree suggests the trip will be fine, and he has shown that he is effective on all sorts of ground. His trainer's decision to swerve Cheltenham could turn out to be a masterstroke and hopefully he can get us off to a winning start at 13/2.

STEVOS' SELECTION: ARZAL 13/2

RACE 2  GRADE 1 JUVENILE HURDLE

Ivanovich Gorbatov did us a big favour when he hosed up at Cheltenham, and unsurprisingly he is a short price to follow up here. He won't want there to be too much rain though, and if it turns soft or worse he could be vulnerable. Given that there is plenty of precipitation forecast there may well be some value to be found elsewhere, and one horse at a price that won't mind conditions too much is the Dan Skelton trained Azzuri.

This 4yo son of Azamour was formerly trained in Ireland by Ger Lyons and he won two races on the level, a 10.5f soft ground maiden at Roscommon and a good ground handicap over 12f at the same venue on good ground off a mark of 78. He was picked up at Tattersalls by current connections for 68k guineas, and he has had just the two starts over timber.

His first run at Musselburgh in a class 2 novice (15.5f good to soft) was nothing to write home about and he was beaten by 25L. However, his trainer didn't lose the faith with him after that run and he ran an absolute cracker next time in Grade 2 company at odds of 25/1 at Kempton (16f soft) when he found only Zubayr too good.

Now the form of that Grade 2 was let down pretty badly at Cheltenham, but Azzuri didn't bother running at the festival and he will be a lot fresher than some of his opponents tomorrow. He is entitled to improve from his last run given it will be only his 3rd start over timber, and at odds of 33/1 he represents each way value in a race that looks the favourite's to lose.

STEVOS' SELECTION: AZZURI E/W 33/1

2.50   BETFRED BOWL CHASE

This is a cracking race and three of the four main protagonists from this year's Gold Cup will renew acquaintances in this 25f  Grade 1. Cue Card is the market leader, and probably deservedly so given that the flat track at Aintree should help him see out the trip. However his confidence is in question after that fall at Cheltenham.  Djakadam and Don Poli are hot on his heels but they both put in monumental efforts at the festival and it remains to be seen if this race is coming just a touch too soon for those two.

One horse that really caught my eye at Cheltenham was Taquin Du Seuil and he was a never nearer 6th behind Vautour in the Ryanair (21f good). He definitely shaped as though he wanted a stiffer test of stamina on that occasion, and as he showed in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby back in 2014 he definitely stays the trip. He loves a bit of cut so the forecast rain will be in his favour, and the Jonjo O'Neill yard has been showing clear signs of life with a couple of good winners this week. The top three in the market will undoubtedly be hard to beat, but this fella had nowhere near as hard a race as that trio at Cheltenham and he could outrun his odds of 28/1.

STEVOS' SELECTION-TAQUIN DU SEUIL E/W 28/1

3.25 AINTREE GRADE 1 HURDLE

Annie Power was sensational when winning the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham and the worry for her rivals is that she will likely be even harder to beat over this longer trip of 20f. To add insult to injury she also gets  a 7lb weight for sex allowance from her rivals and there will be plenty of punters preparing to smash into her at odds on.

The one horse in this field  that I believe could put it up to the super mare over this trip is The New One. Nigel Twiston Davies' 8yo son of Kings Theatre looked as though he was tapped for toe in the Champion Hurdle and the 2014 winner of this race (and 2013 runner up) should be much more at home over this longer trip. I think he can reverse his Cheltenham form with Nichols Canyon and My Tent Or Yours, and at odds of 12/1 he is put up as an each way alternative to the favourite.

STEVOS' SELECTION: THE NEW ONE E/W 12/1


4.05 FOX HUNTERS' CHASE

An absolute battle charge over the national fences and to be honest I have no strong fancy for this race. One that could possibly run well with a clear round is hardy old veteran Ockey De Neulliac. This 14yo showed that there is life in the old dog yet with a short head second in a hunter chase at Carlisle last time, and he was in the process of running a big race when coming down at Valentines' in this last season. He is available to back at odds of 66/1 and he is a tentative each way selection for small stakes.

STEVOS' SELECTION: OCKEY DE NEUILLAC E/W 66/1

4.40 HANDICAP CHASE

Croco Bay was my main fancy for the Cheltenham festival in the Grand Annual but an uncharacteristic mistake at the 6th (water) ended his hopes of emulating his 3rd place finish in that race last year. He was still well in contention when he fell and who knows how close he would have gone, and the one positive that comes from that mishap is that he will be a fresh horse coming into this race.

His mark remains unchanged at 147 and he was 2lb higher when finishing 3rd in the Grand Annual last year. He has been pulled up on his last two visits to Aintree, which is an obvious worry, but last time was in the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl last season (20f good) and he was always going to struggle in that sort of company. He is much more at home in handicaps, and as 2 of his last 3 chase wins have come on easy ground all the forecast rain has to be seen as a positive. At 25/1 I think he is worthy of each way support.

Another that could run well at a big price is the Donald McCain trained 7yo Katachenko. He was another horse who I fancied to run well at Cheltenham, but unfortunately he just missed the cut off his mark of 133. Soft or better ground will be ideal and he should get those conditions tomorrow.

He is only 5lb above his last winning mark of 128 (Wetherby 15f soft) and his close 2nd to Baltimore Rock off 133 at Doncaster (16.5f good to soft) showed he is capable of making an impact off  this mark. He is only a 7yo so he has the scope to improve after just 6 chase starts, and he is another capable of running a big race at odds of 14/1.

STEVOS' SELECTIONS: CROCO BAY E/W 25/1  KATACHENKO E/W 14/1


5.15 MARES BUMPER GRADE 2

18 are due to go to post for this tricky race and Warren Greatrex trains the market leader La Bague Au Roi. She is unbeaten in three runs so far, including one over course and distance. He has spoken in glowing terms about her and after her last run he proclaimed that "she's as good as you get....the next time you see her will be in the bumper at Aintree". She looks skinny at 2/1 but if she is as good as Greatrex reckons she will be hard to beat.

The one I think is an intriguing contender on pedigree is the Don Cantillon bred and trained mare Beyond Measure. She is from a family that Cantillon has done very well with, and this 5yo daughter of Flemensfirth stepped up massively on her first two runs last time at Huntingdon. She was sent off at 9/4 fav on her debut so she had obviously been showing plenty at home, but she pulled hard and ran no sort of race, beaten 27L in the finish.

Perhaps another indication of the esteem she is held in was the fact that she was thrown into Listed company on her next run at Huntingdon, and after her debut effort she was sent off at 80/1. She could only manage to finish 7th, but she showed an awful lot more than she did on her debut and the horse that finished 2L in front of her in 5th, Colin's Sister, went on to be beaten just half a length in a listed heat at Sandown last month.

Beyond Measure also stepped up massively on that run on her next start, again at Huntingdon, and she did it the hard way by making all and holding off the challenge of Song Saa, who went on to win her next two starts. Don Cantillon's filly did it very nicely and I wouldn't be too worried about the application of a hood as she was looking around a bit when Denis O'Regan gave her a couple of smacks.

Her half sister As I Am was a close 4th (33/1) in this very race back in 2014 before going on to win a couple of listed events, and her dam's half brother Be Fair was 2nd in the Champion bumper here (20/1) back in 2003. Beyond Measure is available to back at odds of 40/1 and if she is cut from the same cloth as some of her relatives she is capable of outrunning those odds and perhaps sneaking a place.

STEVOS' SELECTION: BEYOND MEASURE E/W 40/1