Saturday's Selections

Well Friday was a day to forget for the blog. Balnagon Boy didn't fire and I think the ground may well have been too quick for him. The other two ran absolute stinkers and the writing was on the wall a long way from home for both. Jer's Girl was the highlight of the day for me. I didn't back her as I don't go in for short priced favs, but she is a super filly and I was delighted to see her win for small operator Gavin Cromwell.

Saturday is a bumper day of action on both sides of the Irish Sea. Punchestown goes into it's fifth day and to be honest I am not a fan of these marathon festivals. The quality of fare usually declines as the week goes on and that is definitely the case at Punchestown. I do like one horse at the meeting though, and you can read about him and my fancy for the  Guineas below.

PUNCHESTOWN

Heaney is a horse I have had my eye on for a long time. This 9yo son of Flemensfirth has been in the grip of the handicapper since back to back chase wins back in 2013. He was handed a mark of 130 after those two novice chase victories and despite a number of decent runs in handicaps since he hasn't managed to get his head back in front.

I backed him for the Irish National back in 2014 when Conor O Farrell gave him way too much to do. He ran off a mark of 129 that day and was beaten just over 10L into 6th (29f good to yielding). He ran in this race on his next start off the same mark and was a good 4th behind Chartreux. Since then his best run by far came at Leopardstown in January of last year when he was just 5L behind Foxrock off a mark of 126 (21f soft), staying on really well late on and almost getting 2nd.

He was pulled up on his seasonal reappearance on bad ground at Punchestown (22f heavy) back in December and he was put away until late last month. He was last of 5 behind Bright New Dawn at Clonmel and over just 20f on soft ground it was never going to suit. It should have improved his fitness no end though and he has been dropped to a mark of just 123. He steps back up in trip and returns to what should be perfect yielding ground tomorrow and I think he could be set for a big run for Tom Taaffe and Andrew Lynch. He is worthy of a small each way bet at 18/1 in a wide open handicap chase.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 5.00-HEANEY E/W 18/1 nap

NEWMARKET

It is Guineas weekend at HQ and it is the turn of the boys on Saturday. 12 go to post and, surprise surprise, Ballydoyle supply the short price favourite in Air Force Blue. He is by War Front though  and his progeny have shown a distinct preference for fast ground. There are showers forecast for tomorrow and if it does turn up soft there could be a shock result on the cards.

The horse I like at a nice price is Massaat for Owen Burrows and Hamdan Al Maktoum. He is by Teofilo and he is a sire that I have enormous respect for. He has done me a huge number of favours in the last couple of seasons and his progeny are usually versatile when it comes to ground. Massaat's dam is a half sister to Group 3 winner Dolled Up, and she was a decent sort herself, winning 3 races and earning an RPR of 92.

This fella has already shown he has an affinity for easy ground, winning his maiden on good to soft in hugely impressive fashion at Leicester (7f good to soft) after a narrow defeat on debut on quick ground at Sandown. He was stepped straight into Group 1 company on his next start in the Dewhurst at Newmarket (7f good) and he ran an absolute cracker behind today's favourite Air Force Blue.

 He was outpaced in the final furlong and was beaten just over 3L at the finish in 2nd. However, it was a superb run for a horse having just his 3rd run and there is reason to believe he could get closer to the O'Brien horse tomorrow. The extra furlong looks sure to help and any more rain would also be another huge boost to his chances. I think he represents good each way value at odds of 14/1.

STEVOS' SELECTION: MASSAAT E/W 14/1 nb

I might have a couple more selections for tomorrow but I am going to wait on the ground before I decide whether to put them up or not. Keep an eye on my twitter @DaveStevos for further updates.






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