Punchestown Day 3

After Don't Touch It and Zabana won for us on Day 1 I thought it would be hard to match that on Day 2. However, we didn't do too badly at all and Carlingford Lough was undoubtedly the highlight in the big one, tipped up at 22/1. Definite Earl travelled very well but he found disappointingly little when push came to shove and he faded into 7th place in the opener, the only selection that failed to make the money.

Sandymount Duke ran a cracker to be 3rd, landing each way money at 20/1 (adv) and Val De Febet stayed on really well to get 2nd at 10/1(adv). Croco Bay tried to make all in the last but he couldn't hold off the late challengers in the final furlong. He held on well for 4th though and landed another nice each way touch for us at 20/1. Tomorrow is another cracking day of racing but the rain is due to arrive so horses that enjoy a bit of cut could be the order of the day. Below are my thoughts and selections for Day 3.

Race 1

With the heavens set to open before racing gets under way on Thursday an ability to handle soft ground will be key. The opening heat, a 25 runner 16f handicap hurdle, looks a very open race. It is 8/1 the field and the two JP McManus entries are near the top of the market. However, regular readers of the blog will be familiar with my fancy for this race, and Pakman again looks overpriced at odds of 25/1.

This fella first caught my eye when running a cracker at 100/1 at Fairyhouse (16f heavy) back at the start of the winter. He has run just one poor race in 5 starts since, and he ran a huge race on his handicap debut at Fairyhouse (16f yielding) off 112, 3L behind Dollar And A Dream on his penultimate run.

He is just a pound higher today after finishing 3rd back in maiden company last time over 19f in Limerick, a trip that stretched him. He has a good 4th here in the book so he handles the track and he has a 3lb swing in the weights for that 3L defeat to Dollar And A Dream. He is over twice the price of that rival for tomorrow's race and at 25/1 surely he is worthy of supporting each way for tricky customer Adrian Murray.

STEVOS' SELECTION: PAKMAN E/W 25/1

Race 2

Jessica Harrington has two entered in this 2m handicap chase and with her horses in such fine fettle it is no surprise to see Rock The World at the head of the market. However, with the rain due to arrive the ground could turn soft, and I think that will suit her other horse better. Mr Fiftyone is a three time soft ground winner, including a chase, while all of Rock The World's wins have come on a decent surface.

Stable jockey Robbie Power is on the favourite, but he likely made his choice when it looked as though the ground would be good. Mark Bolger takes the ride and he is a more than capable pilot. Mr Fiftyone hasn't been seen on the track for over 7 months, but that is not too much of a worry as he has run well when fresh before. This will be his first run on soft ground since an excellent effort off a mark of 132 in a handicap chase at Galway (18f) last summer when he was 3rd to Bally Longford. Off just a pound higher here he is capable of making his presence felt, once the rain arrives in time.

STEVOS' SELECTION: MR FIFTYONE E/W 10/1

Race 3

I have no strong fancy for this cross country race and it is one to just watch and enjoy.

Race 4

Once again I am going to presume that the ground will have softened for this Grade 1 24f hurdle, and one horse that definitely looks overpriced if it does rain is Dedigout. This lad is a classy sort on his day but he needs plenty of cut to be seen at his best. He was considered as a World Hurdle horse by Tony Martin but he has had a tough time with injuries and that has scuppered plans for him to run at the festival.

However, he has more than paid his way over the years and last season was one of his best. He landed a trio of Grade 2s at trips ranging from 20f to 24f and they all came on soft or heavy ground. He was a Grade 1 winner back in 2012 and that victory came at Punchestown (20f heavy) as did his chase win in identical conditions. He was poor on his seasonal comeback at Navan but it was much more like it last time at Fairyhouse when he was 3rd to Value At Risk (20f soft). That run should have put him cherry ripe for his return to Grade 1 company and I think he is way overpriced at odds of 28/1.

STEVOS' SELECTION: DEDIGOUT E/W 28/1

Race 5

This 24f handicap hurdle has 25 runners and it is a wide open heat. Willie Mullins supplies 4 of the runners and the one I like is Vedettariat, who will have the assistance of top class pilot Mikey Fogarty in the saddle. This 7yo son of Lavirico has been very lightly raced this season and he reverts to the smaller obstacles after three chase runs, one of which resulted in a wide margin win at Fairyhouse (21.5f heavy).

He has had just one run in a handicap during his 13 race career and he was well beaten at Fairyhouse off a mark of  134 (24f soft/heavy). That run may well have come too soon after his easy win in a novice hurdle at Navan (23.5f heavy) and he is better judged on that run. He has been dropped to 132 for this race and on the form of his Navan win he should be well capable of making the frame off that mark. He goes on soft ground, he is fresher than a lot of his opponents and he is the each way selection  at odds of 22/1.

STEVOS' SELECTION: VEDETTARIAT E/W 22/1

Race 6

The second Grade 1 of the day and Douvan is a short order at 1/5. However, you would need your head examined to be backing him at that price, especially when you consider what happened to the two Mullins' good things on Day 1. Three Grade 1s in 6 weeks is a big ask and even a horse with his ability could struggle to pull it off.

The each way selection is Ttebbob, a 7yo son of Milan from the on fire Harrington yard. He hasn't been seen since finding just Sabremont too good in a Grade 2 at Navan back in Feburary so he will be a lot fresher than most of his rivals. He won his first two chase starts in impressive fashion, over 18f at Thurles and then a Grade 3  over 17f at Navan, both on bad ground. The forecast rain will be in his favour tomorrow and on ratings he has very little to find with the rest of the field bar Douvan. I think he is capable of running a big race and at odds of 33/1 he is the each way suggestion.

STEVOS' SELECTION: TTEBBOB E/W 33/1

Race 7

I have no strong fancy here. If the ground had stayed good I would have given Tom Gibney's mare The Nutcracker a squeak, but the forecast rain is not in her favour. The same applies to Miss Estela, another one that likes a decent surface. I am going to hold fire on this race and just watch it.

Race 8

I have no fancy for this race either. Willie Mullins holds a strong hand and he could strike with one of his bigger priced runners. However, it doesn't appeal as a betting heat to me and it is another race to just watch and enjoy.