Agent Can Benefit From Step Up In Trip At Leopardstown

Colwinston and Urbanist ran very well on St Stephens’ day, but unfortunately not well enough to reward each way support. Both horses tried their best so I have no complaints on that front, but unfortunately Colwinston could only manage 4th, while Urbanist was 6th. I still believe that both horses will win races at some stage and they are ones to keep in your tracker for when the better ground comes in the Spring.

 

Tom Gibney is a shrewd operator.

Regular readers will remember me tipping up today’s selection last time out at Fairyhouse at 66/1 and he ran an absolute stormer in 5th. He stayed on strongly close to home in that 2 mile race, and upped in trip to 20f I think Agent Boru can go very close on ground that will suit at Leopardstown. Tom Gibney’s son of Brian Boru is yet to win under rules, but he has plenty of placed form in the book and he produced a career best last time out.

If there was an extra furlong at Fairyhouse last time I think he would have won going away. He got squeezed out and slightly outpaced at a crucial time, but when Moore switched him he absolutely flew home and he could have easily got 2nd at the very least. That was just his 2nd start of the season too, so he is going to strip even fitter now.

Agent Boru was raised just a pound for that excellent effort, and with Patrick Corbett claiming 3lb he is effectively running off 2lb lower now. Tom Gibney has gone a while without a winner but he only has a small string and Play The Game ran a nice race for him earlier this week. I think Agent Boru is massively overpriced at odds of 25/1 and he has to be worth chancing each way in a wide open race.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.05 LEOPARDSTOWN-AGENT BORU E/W @ 20/1

St Stephens’ Day Selections

One of the highlights of the national hunt season every year is St Stephens’ Day (or Boxing Day for UK readers) and this year the racing looks as good as ever. The King George is the big race of the day and I have put a selection up for that contest, as well as two other tips, for Mybettingbonus. Click here to read them. I also fancy a couple at massive prices at Down Royal and I will outline why below.
 

Patrick Corbett comes back in for the ride on Urbanist. 

The first one I like the look of goes in the 2 mile maiden hurdle at 14.15 and I think Colwinston could outrun his price for Suzy Barkley and Adam Short. This 7yo son of Mustameet has yet to taste victory after 12 starts under rules, but he has run some decent races in defeat and this race is likely to have been his target for some time. Some of his best form has come here in bumpers and he ran well over timber here too last March.

He chased home lucky winner Geneva Barracks here that day and while he was some way behind the winner he did keep on well enough for 2nd (16.5f yld/sft) in a first time tongue tie. He followed that up with another solid effort at Fairyhouse (16f gd/yld) with no tongue tie, finishing 4th behind Tudor City. His overall form figures at Down Royal read 3525, his trainer has trained more winners there than at any other track and with the tongue tie reapplied for the first time since his 2nd here he looks worth chancing each way at 33/1.

In the following race, a 2 mile handicap hurdle, I think Urbanist could bounce back with a good run after a woeful effort last time out. I tipped him up for that race at Thurles but he was always in rear and wide and I am going to put a line through that effort and give him another chance. He ran a lot better previously at Fairyhouse and the form of that run has worked out well.

The winner of that race, Roja Dove, went on to win off 9lb higher next time out and she was 12L in front of Urbanist at Fairyhouse. The 4th home Glenabo Bridge was 5L in front of the selection and he went on to be 2nd on his next start before winning at Navan. The 5th home, Killahara Castle was just over 3L ahead of Urbanist and she went on to spring a massive shock in a Listed race on her last start at 200/1.

Urbanist is now 3lb lower and it is interesting that the usual hood is discarded and the cheekpieces go on for the first time. Patrick Corbett replaces Robbie Colgan in the plate and he was on board for that good Fairyhouse run. He has a good record overall when riding for Shane Nolan, winning three races and placing 7 times from just 21 rides. Nolan’s record at Down Royal is another cause for optimism.

The Clane based handler has a good record with his raiders up North, sending out two winners and 4 placed horses from just 12 runners for a frame hitting strike rate of 50%. Urbanist is bred to be a lot better than his current mark of 80, being by Black Sam Bellamy and out of a half sister to the very classy Commanche Court. He races off a feather weight here which should be a big help on the forecast testing ground and at odds of 33/1 he is worth chancing each way. A cheeky little each way double might be worth doing on them too. 

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: 14.15 DOWN ROYAL-COLWINSTON E/W @ 33/1

                                              14.50 DOWN ROYAL-URBANIST E/W @ 33/1

Fresh Fergall Worth A Flutter At A Fancy Price At Ascot

Last weekend’s blog selection Kauto Grand Mogol ran a bitterly disappointing race. Liz Doyle’s half brother to the mighty Kauto Star was always trapped wide and at Navan that approach rarely ends well. It was a similar sort of ride to the one given to Vanellope the previous week. That is two weeks in a row I have tipped up non triers, but when you are looking for big priced winners it is an unavoidable occupational hazard.

 

Fergall And Brain Power In The Fog Here Last Season.

Tomorrow I am taking a chance on one at a big price at Ascot, and I think Fergall looks overpriced back at a track he has never run a poor race at. Jimmy Mullins’ 10yo son of Norwich hasn’t won since scoring on the all weather at Lingfield back in February 2015. His last jumps victory came off 136 back in April 2014 (16f gd sft) and he is only 4lb higher here.

While it is a long time since Fergall last scored over timber, he showed last season that plenty of ability still remains. He was a very good 3rd in this contest behind Brain Power off 136 and that was his third good run at Ascot from three starts. He chased home Many Clouds on his first visit in a maiden hurdle, and he was only beaten a length in 4th by Sternrubin in a Listed handicap hurdle off 136 in October last year. He also ran well in the Galway Hurdle on his last start back in August.

It may be off-putting to some that Fergall is having first run after 142 days off the track but his lack of a recent run is more of a positive. He has a fine record when fresh and he also gets on well with 5lb claimer Kevin Jones. His trainer has reported him to be in good spirits, saying: "Fergall loves this race. He comes there every year and always runs a big race. He's been working well and we'd be hopeful of a good run." I think there are enough positives to justify a small e/w bet, and while winning might be a tough task a place is a real possibility

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.35 ASCOT-FERGALL E/W @ 28/1 (5 PLACES SKYBET)

Flare Can Burn Brightly At Leopardstown

The Festive Season is fast approaching and there is a mouth-watering menu of racing action for punters to feast on. There will be Grade 1s galore on both sides of the pond and I can’t wait for it all to begin. Earlier this week I backed one at a monster price ante-post for the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, and I think Flaxen Flare looks a fascinating contender for Gordon Elliott.

 

Flaxen Flare has a good record in big fields and at Leopardstown. 

This 8yo son of Windsor Knot has been lightly campaigned since breaking his chasing maiden at Down Royal back in 2015 (20f gd/yld). He missed all of 2016 and wasn’t seen again until finishing 3rd on bottomless ground in a hurdle race at Cork (16f). He returned to chasing on his next start at Tramore (21f yld) and he looked by far the most likely winner when making a mistake at the 2nd last and unseating Jack Kennedy.

Flaxen Flare returned to the smaller obstacles for his next and final start of the season at Killarney (20f sft). Jack Kennedy was on board again and his run of bad luck aboard this fella continued as he dropped his whip and was edged out by a nose in a thrilling finish by Plinth. Those two runs proved that this former Cheltenham Festival winner still retained plenty of ability, and connections were likely full of optimism as he headed off on his summer holidays.

He made a very satisfactory return to action behind crack mares Apple’s Jade and Jer’s Girl at Navan back in November (20f hvy), beaten 11L for the win but staying on nicely for 3rd 9L behind Jer’s Girl and 2L ahead of Monksland. He was set an impossible task on his return to chasing last time out, taking on the mighty Min, but he jumped well bar one mistake five out and he was allowed to finish in his own time for 2nd.

The handicapper has handed Flaxen Flare a mark of 138 for Leopardstown and on his best handicap hurdle form he should be well capable of making an impact off that rating. He was only beaten 7L off 149 in the Vincent O’Brien handicap hurdle at Cheltenham back in 2014, and he was also narrowly beaten by Gilgamboa in a handicap hurdle at Leopardstown off 142 in January of the same year.

So, what are my reasons for fancying Flaxen Flare in a race like this? Firstly, I think the fact that Elliott has campaigned him so lightly over fences suggests that he has been minding his handicap mark. Also, he won his maiden hurdle at the Xmas meeting at Leopardstown all the way back in 2012 and his form figures at the track over hurdles read 152, with the 5th coming in a Grade 1 behind the ill fated Our Conor.

Another cause for optimism regarding Flaxen Flare’s chances in this race is his stellar record in big fields. In hurdle races with 17 runners or more he has form figures of 1124325, and that includes a win at the Cheltenham festival. Flaxen Flare evidently enjoys races that are run at an honest pace, and he looks sure to get that in this contest.

The biggest worry for him is that this will be his first start at beyond 21f, and if the ground comes up bottomless that could be an issue. However, his last two wins have come at 20f and 20.5f and he wasn’t showing any signs of stopping when unshipping Jack Kennedy over 21f at Tramore. If his stamina does hold out I think he could be a real dark horse in this race, and at odds of 40/1 he looks worth chancing each way ante-post.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 27TH DEC LEOPARDSTOWN 15.00-FLAXEN FLARE E/W @ 40/1

Kauto Worth One More Chance At Navan

There is no two ways about it, Buyer Beware was very disappointing. The omens weren’t good as he drifted like a barge out to 40/1 at one point, and eventually sent off at 33s he made no impact. In fairness to him he jumped and travelled well to a point, but as they turned for home the tank emptied quickly and perhaps he needs a bit more help from the handicapper.

 

Kauto Grand Mogol will appreciate the drop in trip at Navan.

Regular readers will remember me tipping up tomorrow’s fancy on his return to action after a long spell on the sidelines at Punchestown back in October. Kauto Grand Mogol could only manage 10th that day (20f yld/sft) but he did shape as though he was in dire need off the run and he ran a much better race than the distance beaten suggests. He was bang there at the second last but he made a mistake and tiredness got the better of him in the closing stages.

He was backed at fancy prices on his next start upped in trip to 3 miles at Clonmel, so he must have come out of his comeback run well. Unfortunately, the trip proved to be a bit too far for him and he faded late on after travelling menacingly into the race as they approached the fourth last. He ended up 6th, beaten over 20L, but he demonstrated that he still has ability and I think he could produce a big run dropped back to 20f at Navan.

Given the length of time he was missing he is likely to have benefitted massively for his first two runs back. As an added bonus the handicapper has been very generous, dropping him 10lb to a mark of 125. This half brother to Kauto Star was an excellent 4th in a Martin Pipe Hurdle back in 2014 off 135, so he looks dangerously well handicapped at the moment off 10lb lower.

Liz Doyle has booked Donagh Meyler for the ride and he has an excellent strike rate when riding for Doyle. From 22 rides he has 5 wins and 6 2nds, a frame hitting strike rate of 50% and a win strike rate of 28%. The bottomless ground at Navan shouldn’t pose any problems either as this lad won his bumper and novice hurdle easily on soft/heavy ground. I think Kauto Grand Mogol looks a massive price at 20/1 and hopefully he gives e/w backers a good run for their money.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 13.20 NAVAN-KAUTO GRAND MOGOL E/W @ 20/1

Be Wary Of Buyer At Doncaster

I was bitterly disappointed by Floresco earlier this week as I was extremely confident of a bold showing. Everything looked right for him to go well and the money came, but Floresco had other ideas. He was up there from the get go but half a mile from home the writing was on the wall and he faded badly in the closing stages. Usually I have an excuse for when one of my selections runs poorly, but this time I am stumped. It would be no surprise were he to bounce back to form at some stage as he is definitely a well handicapped animal.
 

Floresco ran a stinker. 

Tomorrow all eyes will be on Cheltenham and I have posted a trio of tips for Mybettingbonus (click here to see them). For my blog selection I fancy one at a big price at Doncaster, and I think Buyer Beware looks an interesting runner in the 2 mile handicap hurdle at 12.00. This former Gordon Elliott inmate is now trained by Pat Holmes, and on some of his form for the Irish trainer he looks more than feasibly handicapped off a mark of 115. The 5yo son of Big Bad Bob will relish the good ground at Donny and he should strip fitter for his run last time out.

He has raced mainly on the level since joining Pat Holmes and he was below par in that sphere during the summer. However, he ran a nice race on his return from a 3 month break at Musselburgh back hurdling last month off a mark of 117. I liked how he jumped that day and though he ended up in 6th, beaten just over 8L, it was a very decent effort. The handicapper has dropped him 2lb to 115 after that outing and he should be capable of being competitive off that rating.

Buyer Beware is actually fairly unexposed in handicap company over timber, his run at Musselburgh being just his second run. Some of his novice hurdle form suggests that a mark of 115 should be well within his grasp. He was only a length behind a horse called Hassle at Cartmel last summer in receipt of a pound and that horse won a Listed handicap hurdle off 125 on his next start. He had previously finished 5L in front of Jaime Sommers at Gowran, conceding 7lb, and he won a handicap off 119 and is now rated 130.

If Buyer Beware can get back to the level of those two runs he will be a big danger in this race. John Kington rides and his 3lb claim could prove to be useful. Kington has a good record when riding for Pat Holmes, riding 4 winners and 18 top 4 finishers from 80 rides. He got to know Buyer Beware last time out at Musselburgh and with trip and ground ideal I think he has an excellent chance of hitting the frame on him tomorrow. At odds of 25/1 Buyer Beware looks worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 12.00 DONCASTER-BUYER BEWARE E/W @ 25/1

Woollacott’s Good Run To Continue At Taunton

Unfortunately Vanellope wasn’t there to win at Navan on Saturday if the ride she was given was anything to go by. Harley Dunne had her posted widest of all throughout and she must have covered at least 3 miles in the 2m 6f contest. She travelled and jumped extremely well for a long way, but it was no surprise to see her fade in the closing stages as the wide course she charted took its toll. I remain convinced that this mare has races in her off her current rating and there will be other days for her.

Floresco hails from a yard in flying form.

Tomorrow I like the look of one at a nice price at Taunton, and I think Floresco looks massively overpriced in the 19f handicap hurdle at 14.10. Richard Woollacott is a trainer that regular readers of the blog will be familiar with, and he hit the headlines after a wonderful win by Beer Goggles a couple of weeks ago. He had another winner last week with Millanisi Boy so clearly he has his string in stupendous form.


Floresco is a horse I have put up before and he looks too big at odds of 20/1 at Taunton tomorrow. This 7yo son of Santiago hasn’t won since taking an 18.5f handicap at Newton Abbott back in May 2016 off 123. He made an ordinary return to action at Ludlow back in October when a well beaten 4th in a handicap chase. He returns to hurdles off a 2lb lower mark than for his last win, and he has a good record at this track.

He has had three runs at Taunton with form figures of 322. His most recent start here came back in November 2015 over an inadequate trip of 2 miles off 114 and he ran a lovely race to be 2nd. He has plenty of form off higher marks too, such as his excellent 4th in a strong Cheltenham handicap this time last year off 130. His form nosedived after that excellent run but every cloud has a silver lining and the handicapper has given him a real chance now.

His yard is flying and the booking of Daryl Jacob is a big positive too. He has won on him before and he has a fine record when riding for Woollacott. He has 16 wins and 45 top 4 finishes from 125 rides and Jacob also does very well at Taunton (37 wins/83 top 4 finishes from 239 rides). With trip, track and ground to suit I think Floresco has every chance of hitting the frame at Taunton and at odds of 20/1 he looks well worth chancing each way.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: 14.10 TAUNTON-FLORESCO E/W @ 20/1 

Van Can Make Presence Felt On Handicap Debut At Navan

Unfortunately, Phobiaphiliac was a non runner earlier today, but looking on the bright side at least it wasn’t a loser! The best of tomorrow’s action comes from across the Irish sea at Aintree and Sandown and I have put up a trio of tips for the Becher, Grand Sefton and Tingle Creek for Mybettingbonus (click here to see them). For my blog tip this Saturday I am sticking to home turf, and I like the look of a mare at a big price at Navan.

Peter Croke's charge should appreciate the step up to 2m 6f.

Regular readers of the blog might remember me tipping up Vanellope at a massive price in a maiden back in October at Punchestown and she ran an absolute cracker to finish 5th behind the very talented subsequent Listed winner Cracking Smart. She was bang there until running out of steam in the closing stages but it was a fine effort in a hot race.

She was only 12L behind another smart sort in Court Artist on her seasonal reappearance at Ballinrobe, and considering she likely would have needed the outing badly it was a super run. She has been handed an opening mark of 106 by the handicapper and on the form of her second hurdle run she should be capable of making an impact off that rating.


Off You Go finished 10L behind Vanellope at Punchestown and he has since finished 3rd on his handicap debut off 105. That would suggest that 106 is more than fair for the selection and with Harley Dunne’s claim she is effectively running off 101. Another cause for optimism is the step up in distance to 22f as this daughter of Presenting is bred to relish that sort of trip.

Her sire is known as a stamina influence, producing stayers like Denman, War Of Attrition and First Lieutenant. Her half brother Irish Buccaneer won at 21f and her dam Supreme Serenade was also a multiple winner at up to 2m 6f. She is a full sister to Grade 3 winning hurdler Supreme Prince and he won at up to 2m 5f. So, as can be seen from the above, 2m 6f should be ideal if her pedigree is anything to go by.

Vanellope’s sole win came in a heavy ground 20f bumper at Wexford where she beat Burren Life by 5L. She could have won by a lot more only for her jockey easing her in the closing stages once the race was in the bag. Burren Life has since finished 3rd in a Listed race, won maiden and novice hurdles and is now rated 130. If Vanellope can reproduce that form at Navan she should go very close at odds of 25/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 13.25 NAVAN-VANELLOPE E/W @ 25/1

Don’t Be Afraid To Back Phobia At Sandown

We had a decent day at Fairyhouse last Sunday with our 12/1 e/w NAP Early Doors placing behind the very promising Mengli Khan. The front two pulled a long way clear of the remainder in what looked a decent race and both horses could be worth keeping an eye on with Cheltenham in mind. Agent Boru also ran a mighty race for us at 66/1, getting squeezed out between the last two hurdles but keeping on strongly down the outer to get back up for 5th. That was just his second handicap start and he is a horse with a lot of potential.

Matt Griffiths and Nicky Martin have forged a good partnership.

Tomorrow I like the look of one at a big price at Sandown and I think Phobiaphiliac could outrun his odds for Nicky Martin and Matt Griffiths. This former Nicky Henderson inmate ran a lovely race on his chase debut for his new yard behind Yanworth and Sternrubin at Exeter (17.5f gd/sft), jumping well but tiring late having pulled very hard early on. He was always in rear on his handicap chase debut at Ludlow last time (16f gd) but he was never likely to be suited by the drop back in trip in that hot 0-135 contest.


The handicapper has cut him 5lb to 123 after that poor run and Phobiaphiliac is now able to drop into a 0-125 race. This is nowhere near as strong a contest as his last race at Ludlow and he will also be suited by the step back up in trip to 20f. His two hurdle wins for Nicky Henderson came at 20.5f in Southwell maiden (won by 18L) and by 9L in a Lingfield Novice, both on good ground.


He is rated 132 over timber so he looks feasibly treated off 123 over fences. His trainer, Nicky Martin, is on course to have his best season so far since moving into the training ranks and he has teamed up to good effect with Matt Griffiths. He has ridden 3 winners and had 9 top 4 finishes from just 20 rides for Martin this season. I have always believed that Matt Griffiths is a top quality jockey and hopefully he proves me right by hitting the frame on Phobiaphiliac at odds of 25/1.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: 13.55 SANDOWN-PHOBIAPHILIAC E/W @ 25/1

Fairyhouse Winter Festival Sunday Preview

Ollie Vaar ran a nice race for us earlier, but unfortunately he finished 4th and out of the money. He was a lot more clued up than on debut and I thought he looked booked for 3rd as they approached the second last. However, he was just done for toe by the King horse and he faded in the final furlong. He is definitely a horse to keep an eye on, and he could be worth backing if upped in trip when sent handicapping. Sunday sees the best jumps card of the year so far taking place at Fairyhouse, and you can read my thoughts below.

Dinaria Des Obeaux gets a huge amount of weight from her rivals.

RACE 1

A Grade 3 2 mile Juvenile Hurdle gets the action started at Fairyhouse and at first glance this looks a match between Espoir D’Allen for JP McManus and Gavin Cromwell and Mitchouka for Gigginstown and Gordon Elliott. The former is unbeaten in two hurdle starts and he won both in the manner of a very talented horse. Mitchouka won his last two by a combined total of 25L and he is another horse with bags of potential.

However, the bookies haven’t missed either of those and at a much bigger price perhaps Khudha can play the role of party pooper. This son of Helmet was last seen hacking up in a soft ground 12f handicap on the level at the Curragh for Johnny Murtagh. That run induced Barry Connell into getting the chequebook out and he is an interesting recruit to hurdles. If he takes to the game he could go well and at odds of 20/1 he is suggested as a value alternative to the top two in the market.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: KHUDHA E/W @ 20/1

RACE 2

The first of three Grade 1s on Sunday at Fairyhouse is the Royal Bond Novice hurdle and a small but select field of seven go to post. Mengli Khan has been put in as favourite at 13/8 after his impressive Grade 3 win at Navan last time out. However, he has a lot more on his plate here and JP McManus holds a strong hand with three runners that all look to hold realistic chances.

Barry Geraghty has opted for La Richebourg and while he might be the one to be on come March and April, the soft ground is an unknown for him and he might not be seen to best effect. Red Jack looks a decent price at 8/1 but the form of his hurdle wins looks suspect. He holds La Richebourg on their meeting in a soft ground bumper at Naas last season.

The biggest priced horse of the McManus trio is Early Doors and at odds of 12/1 it could pay to side with him. Joseph O’Brien’s son of Soldier Of Fortune is unbeaten in two starts over timber and he took the scalp of Meri Devie in a Grade 3 at Naas last time. He is guaranteed to go on the ground, Mark Walsh is riding out of his skin and at odds of 12/1 I think he is worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: EARLY DOORS E/W @ 12/1 NAP

RACE 3

I have tipped up a horse for this Grade 1 for Mybettingbonus and you can find out my fancy by clicking here.

RACE 4

A maximum field of 20 horses will go to post in this 2 mile Grade A handicap and it looks a perilous puzzle to solve. Some classy types take their chances, including the likes of Ivanovich Gorbatov, Ted Veale and Meri Devie. Ben Dundee is the 4/1 favourite after his impressive win last time but he has been raised 10lb for that victory and there is better value to be found elsewhere. At an absolutely monstrous price perhaps Agent Boru can go well from the foot of the weights for local trainer Tom Gibney.

This son of Brian Boru has yet to get his head in front in 5 maiden hurdle runs and he was well beaten on his handicap bow at Killarney. However, he probably wasn’t suited by the good ground that day and he has some decent form to his name on easy ground in maidens. He was 4th on his seasonal comeback here last month (20f sft) and he should be suited by a fast run race at 16f. Stakes should be kept small, but I think Agent Boru could outrun his odds of 66/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: AGENT BORU E/W @ 66/1

RACE 5

The last of the Grade 1s on Sunday is the Drinmore Novice Chase, a 20f contest that has attracted a field of 6 horses. Death Duty is a warm order to follow up his impressive win in a Grade 3 at Punchestown last time and if he is in the same mood here he will be hard to beat. Elliott also runs 4yo filly Dinaria Des Obeaux and she is receiving a huge amount of weight from her male rivals. She will be carrying over a stone less than both Death Duty and Rathvinden and that could be a huge positive on such testing ground.

This Grade 3 hurdle winner has looked a natural since going chasing and she has won both her starts. She absolutely hosed up in a heavy ground Listed contest last time and she previously lowered the colours of the highly rated La Martalin. Trip, ground and track are all perfect for this fabulous filly and at odds of 4/1 she could give Death Duty plenty to think about.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DINARIA DES OBEAUX @ 4/1

RACE 6

16 horses go to post in this Grade B 3m 5f handicap chase and, as ever in races of this type, small stakes at big odds is the approach to take. Stamina and an ability to handle bad ground are the credentials that will be needed to win a race like this and one horse that ticks both those boxes is Undressed. Michael Hourigan’s 9yo son of Lost World bounced back to form with a good 3rd in the Cork National last time (28f sft) and judging by how he finished that race he should be suited by the extra furlong here.

He had generally been a consistent sort over fences but he was pulled up three times in a row after his last win at Limerick in a Novice Chase (22f hvy) last December. He could only manage 9th in this race last season off a mark of 116 when sent off at just 5/1 but the good to yielding ground was not to his liking. He is 7lb higher now, but he showed definite signs of a revival last time despite making some jumping errors and if he can cut those mistakes out he could run a big race at tasty odds.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: UNDRESSED E/W @ 28/1 NB

Ollie Could Outrun Odds At Doncaster

Unfortunately, it wasn’t Urbanist’s day earlier this week and he was never sighted. He started in rear and stayed there, never even looking like landing a blow. I still believe he is a horse with more ability than he is showing and perhaps he needs further and better ground to be seen at his best. Tomorrow I am chancing one at a big price at Doncaster, and I think Ollie Vaar could sneak a place in the 2 mile Novices’ Hurdle that opens the card at 12.05.

 

Ollie Vaar Could Go Well For Richard Price.

This 5yo son of Sulamani showed nothing in a pair of point to points on good ground, pulled up on debut and then falling when beaten next time. He moved from Robert Llewellyn to Richard Price after that second run and he made his rules debut over timber at Chepstow a month ago (16f soft). He was green as grass throughout that race, reluctant to start and putting in one or two hairy jumps.

However, it looked to me as though he had an engine and he did very well to come home in 5th, beaten a long way for the win but only 3L behind the 4th, The Crazed Moon. That mare ran well to finish 2nd in a maiden next time out, while the 8th home, 7L behind Olli Vaar, also finished 2nd in a handicap off 100 on his next start. The last placed finisher, Pointed And Sharp, won a maiden at 40/1 on his next outing so the form looks pretty decent.

Given that a lot of the runners in that race had previous experience under rules I think it was an excellent debut. Price has given him plenty of time to recover from his exertions and he should be a lot more streetwise now. The presence of Irish Prophecy and Kalashnikov in the race should ensure that they go a good clip and that should suit Ollie Vaar.

Now, the top two in the market will undoubtedly be hard to beat as they are both very well regarded by their respective connections. However, 3rd place looks up for grabs and I think the form of Ollie Vaar’s last race is better than the bumper that 6/1 shot Deyrann De Carjac ran in last time. Ollie Vaar is over five times the price of the King horse and at 33/1 I think he is worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 12.05 DONCASTER-OLLIE VAAR E/W @ 33/1 

Nolan’s Charge Could Go Well At Thurles

Mala Beach took the Troytown in impressive fashion on Sunday, jumping boldly and cruising clear up the Navan hill. He is evidently a lot better than a handicapper and it will be interesting to see where he ends up in the Spring. My selection, He Rock’s, ran well for a very long way but the searching pace he helped set was too much for him on the testing ground and he faded in the home straight. He ended up finishing 8th, far from disgraced, and he can pick up a handicap or two this Winter at a lower level.

 

Mala Beach impressed at Navan.

Tomorrow I am taking a chance on one at a tasty price at Thurles and I think Urbanist looks an interesting runner for Shane Nolan and Robbie Colgan. Those two teamed up to win with Caolaneoin twice last season and they could be set to strike again in the 2 mile handicap hurdle at 14.55. This very nicely bred son of Black Sam Bellamy showed very little on his first few starts, including on handicap debut, but he showed a lot more last time and ran better than finishing position and distance beaten suggests.

Urbanist was settled at the rear of mid division last time at Fairyhouse (16f sft) and he was lobbing along nicely having jumped the first two hurdles well. However, he was hampered by a faller at the third hurdle and he lost 5 or 6 lengths. He found himself near the back of the race, but Patrick Corbett didn’t look to worried and he didn’t try to push him back up through the field. He raced near the rear of the field for the next 6f or so, and half a mile out he started to make ground.

Corbett switched him wide 4f out and as he started to shove along Urbanist seemed to be coming into the race nicely. It wasn’t the most vigorous of efforts by his jockey though and he also managed to run into trouble as they started turning for home. Urbanist lost a bit of momentum with a slowish jump at what was usually the 2nd last but this time was the last (the final hurdle was omitted), but once the leaders had flown Corbett pushed him along more firmly and he stayed on well in the closing stages for 6th.

That promising effort came off a mark of 83 and Urbanist has been dropped 2lb to 81 after that run. Pedigree suggests this trip will be fine for the 5yo, as his dam’s half brother Commanche Court was a classy 2 mile performer as a young horse, winning a Triumph Hurdle before going on to win an Irish Grand National. She is also a half sister to a 1 mile Listed flat winner as well as winning a 10f flat race and 2 mile hurdle herself.

The ground is currently described as soft at Thurles and that surface should pose no problems for Urbanist. Robbie Colgan has ridden a couple of winners from 27 rides for Shane Nolan and he is a jockey with no shortage of experience taking over from a 3lb claimer. If Urbanist can avoid accidents and gets a kinder trip through the race than last time, I think he is capable of producing a big run and at odds of 20/1 he is worth chancing each way in a trappy looking race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 14.55 THURLES-URBANIST E/W @ 20/1 

Mahon’s Charge Can Rock Them In Troytown

First of all, apologies for the lack of a blog post in the past week. I have taken on some extra work and time constraints mean I haven’t been able to tip anything up. Hopefully things will settle down in the next couple of weeks and I will be able to post more regularly. Last week’s selection Project Bluebook was never put into the race in the Greatwood but I am convinced he has a big handicap in him and he is not one to lose faith in just yet, especially when he is returned to better ground.

 

Stephen Mahon will be trying to win his second Troytown Chase.

Tomorrow one of the big races of the year on the National Hunt scene in Ireland is run at Navan. The Troytown Handicap Chase has been won by some serious horses in recent years, including the likes of Empire Of Dirt (2016), Notre Pere (2008) and two time winner Lyreen Wonder (2000, 2001). Gordon Elliott has won it for the past three years and he supplies 6 of the 22 runners for this season’s renewal.

General Principle and Mala Beach look to be his two main hopes of completing the four timer, but at much bigger odds I think He Rock’s could be capable of a bold show from near the foot of the weights. It is 12 years since Mahon won this race with Prince Of Tara and he has often mentioned He Rock’s in the same breath as that horse. The 8yo son of Beneficial has won three chases so far in his career and the last of those came off a mark of 113 on bottomless ground at Roscommon (25.5f).

That 22L win in October of last year saw He Rock’s handicap mark raised 12lb to 125 but he has run some cracking races off his revised rating. At the start of this year he had form figures of 232 off marks of 124, 126 and 125 respectively so he is undoubtedly capable of hitting the frame off his current rating. Mahon is likely to have trained him with this race firmly in mind, and he made a pleasing enough reappearance at Galway last month.

He was 3rd beaten 21L behind Call It Magic off 126 that day on heavy ground over an inadequate trip of 22.5f. Considering he likely needed the run from a fitness perspective it wasn’t a bad effort at all and he will be in prime condition on Sunday with that behind him. Usual partner Denis O’Regan would not be able to do the weight on him in the Troytown but Mahon has found a more than able deputy in young Jonathon Moore.

He Rock’s will relish the heavy ground at Navan and in such a big field his favoured prominent racing style has to be seen as a positive. He should be at peak fitness after his run at Galway and he has shown he is capable of making an impact off his current rating of 126. His trainer knows what is required to win a race of this nature and at odds of 40/1 I think He Rock’s is worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 14.35 NAVAN-HE ROCK’S E/W @ 40/1 (5 places Paddy Power) 

Bluebook Looks Overpriced In The Greatwood

Pivotal Flame was simply outclassed for us on Friday and she never got involved. She was left behind as the pace lifted down the back and her jumping let her down. I still believe this filly possesses ability and she can make her presence felt once she gains a bit more experience. On Sunday I like the look of one in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham and I think Project Bluebook looks well overpriced for this 16.5f contest.

 

Project Bluebook ticks a lot of boxes for the Greatwood.

John Quinn’s 4yo has run some cracking races in big field handicaps, including when 4th in the Fred Winter back in March off 138. He followed that up with a fine performance when beating Dandy Mag and Ex Patriot in brave fashion in a Grade 2 hurdle at Fairyhouse(16f yld). That win saw his rating hiked to 141 but he showed he could be competitive off his revised mark when 6th behind Tigris River in the Galway Hurdle.

He is 3lb better off with that rival now and though he was a long way behind him at Galway I think he was given a poor ride by Brian Hughes and with a kinder trip he would have finished a lot closer. Project Bluebook was posted wide throughout and raced in rear, and as the race developed ahead of him he was simply left with far too much to do. He did stay on well up the Galway hill though and he must have caught the handicapper’s eye as he raised him 2lb for that run.

John Quinn’s charge is no slouch on the level either and he last ran in a flat handicap at Chepstow, chasing useful stayer Taws home off a mark of 80. He has been given a 3 month break since that good effort but that isn’t a big worry as he has form figures of 22 when returning from a break of 3 months or more. He won’t be too worried about the ground either as he has won on the flat on soft so he should handle it well.

The form of his trainer John Quinn is another positive as 2 of his last 12 runners have won. Brian Hughes has a fine record when riding for Quinn, winning on 11 of 41 rides, with a further 21 top 4 finishes, for a fabulous frame hitting strike rate of just over 78%. All things considered, I think Project Bluebook is an absolutely massive price at odds of 28/1 and at those odds he has to be worth chancing each way (6 places Skybet).

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.00 CHELTENHAM: PROJECT BLUEBOOK E/W 28/1

Phelan’s Flame Could Burn Brightly At Cheltenham

I thought Cohesion ran a better race for us than his finishing position suggests last week in the November handicap as very little went right for him. David Bridgwater’s charge didn’t get as good a start as he would have liked and George Wood couldn’t get him into his preferred prominent position early doors. He raced on the inner, got shuffled back through the field and by the time George Wood switched him wide in the home straight the race was over. When he did find daylight he stayed on very well, and though he finished 14th he was only 8L behind the winner and 4l off a place.

 

Sean Houlihan's 7lb claim could be crucial.

My fancy for tomorrow at Cheltenham has form that ties in with Cohesion, and I think Pivotal Flame looks too big a price in the 16.5f handicap hurdle at 13.15. Pat Phelan’s 4yo daughter of Pivotal has improved with every run since going hurdling and her best effort yet came when 4th behind Highway One O One at Plumpton last time out. She was beaten just over 9L by the winner that day, but she was only a length behind the runner up Cohesion and on the evidence of that run I think her opening mark of 114 looks workable.

Now, she was admittedly receiving a fair chunk of weight from the majority of her rivals that day at Plumpton, but she pulled pretty hard early on and if she had settled better she could have finished a lot closer to the winner who is now rated 133. The runner up Cohesion is rated over 100 on the level and the 3rd home Trust The Man, a 200/1 shot, backed up his good run by finishing a decent 2nd behind the very highly rated and unbeaten Irish Prophecy on his next start.

Sean Houlihan, who almost guided Milrow to victory for us here at a monster price a few weeks back, keeps the faith and that looks a big plus as Sophie Leech has a couple of runners in this race. I am not sure if she has first dibs on Houlihan but presumably he had the choice between Pivotal Flame and her two entries. His 7lb claim means that Pivotal Flame makes her handicap debut off effectively 107 and I think she has the raw ability to be competitive off that rating.

The big worry for me with Pivotal Flame is her lack of experience over hurdles as this is just her 5th start in this sphere. Her jumping looked a little bit sketchy at times at Plumpton, but it got better as the race wore on and hopefully she has learned enough in her three completions over timber to allow her to hold her own in this big field. If she settles early and jumps well I think she is capable of putting up a bold show, and at the monstrous price of 66/1 I think she has to be worth a fiver each way.

I have also put up a trio of tips for Mybettingbonus tomorrow. Click here to see them.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 13.15 CHELTENHAM-PIVOTAL FLAME E/W @ 66/1 (5 places PP)

Stick With Cohesion At Doncaster

We capped off what was a good weekend last week with Nakeeta running a massive race in a Melbourne Cup that was dominated by European horses. Joseph O’Brien saddled Rekindling to take the win but Nakeeta ran a gallant race in 5th and with plenty of bookies paying out on the first 5 home it was good enough for each way purposes. He didn’t enjoy the clearest of passages, but he stayed on very well in the closing stages and Iain Jardine can be very proud of his stable star.

 

David Bridgewater is better known as a national hunt trainer.

Tomorrow I fancy one at a nice price in the 12f November Handicap at Doncaster and I think Cohesion is a very interesting contender for David Bridgwater with George Wood claiming 3lb. I tipped this fella up for the Ebor but he was declared a non runner. He was last seen running a nice race to be 2nd in a maiden hurdle behind Highway One O One at Plumpton (16f gd/sft) last month. That should have put him spot on for his return to the level and he has some smart form in this sphere.

His last two flat runs came over 15f at Chantilly when he was well beaten in a Group 3 and he was previously 4th in a hot 2 mile contest at the All Weather Championships. He was a shade unlucky behind Winning Story that day and with a clearer run he would have finished a lot closer to the winner. His last 12f run came in a handicap off 101 at Wolverhampton when he won by 1.5L and the 3rd home that day, Fabricate, has gone on to win a Group 3 since so it looks rock solid form.

His trainer David Bridgwater is best known for training jumpers like The Giant Bolster and Cohesion is one of only two winners he has had on the level. The booking of George Wood looks a signal of intent as his 3lb claim means that Cohesion is effectively running off his last winning mark of 101 and Wood showed he knows what it takes in these big handicaps by scoring in the Cambridgeshire aboard 50/1 shot Dolphin Vista.

The draw has been kind to Cohesion who finds himself in stall 4 and with 23 runners due to go to post hopefully he gets away to a decent start and is able to assume his customary prominent racing position. He was a winner on heavy when trained in France so soft ground holds no fears and he should be at peak fitness after his run over hurdles. This son of Champs Elysees has the credentials to run a massive race and at odds of 25/1 he looks well worth chancing each way.

I have posted another three selections for Mybettingbonus and you can check them out by clicking here.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.15 DONCASTER-COHESION E/W @ 25/1 

Nakeeta Can Nail Them Late Down Under

We had a superb Saturday at the Breeders’ Cup with Lady Caledonia and Talismanic both obliging at double figure prices. Mind Your Biscuits, Lancaster Bomber and Collected landed each way bets for us too so overall it was a profitable meeting. The focus now switches from America to Australia and the race that stops a nation. The Melbourne Cup gets under way at 4am Tuesday our time so don’t forget to either set that alarm or get in some nice coffee (or something stronger perhaps!).

 

Nakeeta looks well overpriced at 25/1.

The one I like at a nice price in this year’s Melbourne Cup is Nakeeta, a horse last sighted winning The Ebor by a head at York for Iain Jardine off a mark of 103 (14f gd). That narrow victory capped off what has been a real rags to riches tale for the gelded 6yo son of Sixties Icon whose first career win came back in 2014 in a class 5 maiden handicap at Pontefract off a mark of just 66! He has improved relentlessly since then and he more than deserves his place in a race of this magnitude.

There are a lot of positives for Nakeeta regarding his chance in this contest, none more so than the manner of his win last time in The Ebor. Anchored in rear until they turned for home he didn’t enjoy a clear passage at all, squeezing through a couple of narrow gaps to get into the race. When he did find daylight 2f from home he showed a very nice turn of foot to seal the deal, and even his jockey dropping the reins close home wasn’t going to stop him from scoring.

He probably was value for more than the winning distance of a head and I got the impression that if the race was further than 14f he would have won by a wider margin. Nakeeta seems to relish the rough and tumble of big fields, a huge asset in a race like the Melbourne Cup, and though he is drawn wide it shouldn’t hinder him too much as he enjoys being held up and produced with a late run. He will have the assistance of the vastly experienced Glyn Schofield in the saddle and he knows his way around this track.

The step up to 2 miles is no problem for Nakeeta either as his stamina is assured. He stayed on strongly for 2nd in the Chester Cup last year and that race is run over 2 miles and 2 furlongs. Nakeeta has been given plenty of time to get over his exertions at York and seeing as that was only his fourth run of the season he is a relatively fresh horse. Heartbreak City was touched off in the Melbourne Cup after plotting the same route as Nakeeta last season, and at odds of 25/1 hopefully the Scottish star can go one better. 

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MELBOURNE CUP-NAKEETA E/W @ 25/1 

Breeders’ Cup Saturday Preview

Two of our four Breeders’ Cup selections on Friday ran well, while the less said about the other two the better. September ran a massive race to finish 3rd as she had to make her challenge very wide. She is a filly that should be kept onside next season, particularly on quick ground. Giant Expectations was never put into the race at any stage after a slow start and James Garfield never found daylight under Frankie.

Abel Tasman flew home for 2nd but I think she should have won and if Mike Smith could ride the race again I am sure he would do it differently. I will only be previewing the Grade 1s tonight but I will be keeping a close eye on Corinthia Knight in the 18.20. This will be Ontoawinner’s first ever Breeders’ Cup runner and he could well be suited by the track. At double figure odds he could be worth backing each way and I would love to see him run well for his owners and Archie Watson.

 

Caledonia Road looks an interesing runner for Ralph Nicks.

19.00 JUVENILE FILLIES

This 8.5f dirt race sees 13 speedy 2yo fillies go to post and, as is the case with most of the dirt races, European horses have struggled in this. There is no British or Irish representative here and in a field loaded with front runners it looks sure to be run at a furious gallop. The top two in the market are the clear form picks, but they both like to be up there and I think this could set up for a closer.

Mike Smith misjudged the timing of his effort on Abel Tasman for us yesterday, but perhaps he can make amends here on Caledonia Road. This filly is drawn wide but she will likely be dropped out the back and produced late on. She ran a good race under patient tactics last time when chasing home Separationofpowers in a Grade 1 and with that horse unlikely to get an easy time up front I think Caledonia Road could reverse that form and at nice odds she is the each way suggestion.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: CALEDONIA ROAD E/W @ 18/1

Washington DC will enjoy the firm ground at Del Mar.

 19.37 TURF SPRINT

The fact that previous winner Mongolian Saturday can be backed at 66/1 shows that this is a deep race and the Europeans hold a strong hand. Flying filly Lady Aurelia is the short priced favourite and if she is at her brilliant best she will be hard to beat, particularly as she carries less weight than all of her rivals. Marsha is the shortest of the British and Irish challengers, but at a much bigger price Washington DC is of interest on the forecast firm ground.

This son of Zoffany has yet to win at the highest level in ten attempts but the fact that O’Brien has persisted with him suggests that he believes the 4yo is capable. He won impressively in a Group 3 at the Curragh the last time he ran on good to firm and he had excuses the last twice. He is far from reliable and he needs everything to go right, but if things fall into place he could be dangerous and a small e/w bet at 25/1 is advised.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: WASHINGTON DC E/W @ 25/1

Unique Bella will be hard to beat.

20.14 FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

This race is all about Unique Bella, and if she repeats the form of her penultimate start when easily beating Abel Tasman then she will be very hard to beat. Our old pal Mike Smith will have to work his magic from stall 11 and she will need to be fast from the gates. If she gets away well and doesn’t get trapped wide it will take a very good one to beat her.

Her trainer Jerry Hollendorfer had a nice winner with Battle Of Midway here yesterday so there are no worries regarding the form of his horses. Smith has a good record in the race, winning it twice, including last year on Finest City. The fact that he has abandoned that mare for Unique Bella says a lot and at odds of 2/1 she is a confident selection.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: UNIQUE BELLA @ 2/1 WIN

Senga could go well for France.

21.00 FILLY AND MARE TURF

This race has proved to be a happy hunting ground for European horses and Michael Stoute is the joint leading trainer with 3 wins. He teamed up with Frankie Dettori last year with Queen’s Trust to win it and they are back to try and repeat the dose this year. She ran a cracker her only run on quick ground this season when 2L behind Highland Reel and she can be forgiven her recent runs on ground softer than ideal. With firm ground forecast at Del Mar she should run a good race at 9/1.

However, at a slightly bigger price I think Senga could run a big race for Pascal Bary and Stephane Pasquier. This French raider loves quick ground and her only defeat since debut on good or better came behind Wuheida over a mile. She was finishing fast that day so the extra furlong here should enable her to reverse that form. She is nicely drawn in stall 2 and at odds of 12/1 I think she has outstanding each way claims.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SENGA E/W @ 12/1 NAP

Mind Your Biscuits has a good e/w chance.

21.37 DIRT SPRINT

Bob Baffert is the leading trainer in this race with 5 wins and he took it last year with Defrong. He is back with the now 4yo to defend his crown and from a plum draw in stall 2 he will be hard to peg back if fast from the gates.

For each way purposes perhaps Mind Your Biscuits can give his backers a run for their money. He is versatile tactically, he is a former Grade 1 winner and he wasn’t beaten far by Defrong in this last year. The quicker they go early the better for this fast finisher and a small each way bet is advised at 8/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MIND YOUR BISCUITS E/W @ 8/1

 

Lancaster Bomber could go one better than last year.

22.19 TURF MILE

European trainers have fared well in this race, especially Freddy Head who has the most wins with three. However, the Americans have dominated in recent years and no European trainer has scored since super mare Goldikova back in 2010. Aidan O’Brien has surprisingly never won this race but Lancaster Bomber could be the one to break his duck.

This 3yo son of War Front has won just 1 of his 13 career starts but he has run some cracking races in defeat at the highest level. The key to him, like so many of War Front’s progeny, is rattling quick ground and he will get his optimum conditions at Del Mar. He was runner up in the Juvenile Turf last year on firm, he ran well at Woodbine on his penultimate start on similar ground and at odds of 12/1 I think he holds very solid each way claims.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: LANCASTER BOMBER E/W @ 12/1

 

Bolt D'Oro looks a worthy favourite.

22.58 JUVENILE DIRT

Aidan O’Brien and Mick Kinane teamed up to win this race many moons ago with Johannesburg and O’Brien is back to try and repeat the dose with US Navy Flag. O’Brien won the Juvenile Turf on Friday night with Mendelssohn and that was a race that many pundits thought would be ideal for this fella. It will be the first time the son of War Front has ever encountered dirt, his Galileo dam never tried it either and on balance I think that he is skinny enough at 9/1 as he has a lot to prove.

Although he is drawn wide the current favourite Bolt D’Oro looks very hard to oppose here. He is unbeaten in three starts, including two here, and his last two wins have come at the highest level. He absolutely destroyed them last time on his first run at tonight’s trip at Santa Anita, he is versatile tactically and it is hard to pick holes in this son of Medagalia d’Oro. He may only be 5/4 but he should give favourite backers something to shout about.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: BOLT D’ORO @ 5/4 NB

Andre Fabre is looking for his 3rd win in this race.

23.37 BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

This 12f race has been dominated by the European’s in recent years and they have been successful 17 times in total. That man Aidan O’Brien has won it six times and he will be looking to complete a hat trick having won it for the past two years with Highland Reel in 2016 and Found in 2015. Highland Reel is a short order to repeat the dose but O’Brien has another couple of entries and both Cliffs Of Moher and especially Seventh Heaven will enjoy the firm ground.

Andre Fabre has won this race twice and he has an interesting contender in Talismanic this year. This 4yo son of Medaglia d’Oro has yet to score at the highest level but he will enjoy the quick ground and he is 2/3 over 12f on good. He was a good 3rd in the Group 2 Prix Foy last time out, he will appreciate the return to a faster surface and from the plum draw in stall 1 he could give each way backers a good run for their money at 20/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: TALISMANIC E/W @ 20/1

 

Collected looks a solid each way bet.

00.35 CLASSIC

In the early hours of Sunday morning 11 horses will go to post for the final race of the Breeders’ Cup meeting. Arrogate comes into the race as the 5/2 favourite but his air of invincibility is gone after meeting defeat on his last two runs. It is perhaps too soon to write him off and he has landed a great draw in stall 1.

The 7/1 about Collected looks a big price seeing as he beat Arrogate last time out over this course and distance and though he is drawn wide he is usually fairly quick from the gates so he should be able to get a prominent racing position. I really liked the way he galloped all the way to the line last time and I think he looks a rock solid each way bet with an excellent chance of winning.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: COLLECTED E/W @ 7/1

Breeders' Cup Friday Preview

The eyes of the equine world will be fixed firmly on Del Mar racecourse tonight as some of the most talented horses on the planet take each other on at the Breeders’ Cup. There are plenty of British and Irish challengers this year and Aidan O’Brien sends a strong squad across the Atlantic in pursuit of yet more Group 1 glory. The main action gets underway tonight with the Juvenile Fillies’ race and you can find out my fancy for all the big races below.

 

September will love the firm ground at Del Mar.

21.25-JUVENILE FILLIES’ TURF

The maestro of Ballydoyle looks to hold a strong hand here and Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Happily. However, that filly has yet to encounter ground faster than good and the firm going at Del Mar has to be a slight concern. Seamie Heffernan will partner September, a filly for whom there are no worries regarding the ground, and this regally bred daughter of Deep Impact could be the one to be on. She hasn’t been handed the best of draws in stall 10 so Seamie will need to be at his best, but at least she is proven on fast going.

She won a Listed race at Ascot easily on her only start on good to firm and she was only narrowly beaten by Laurens on good last time at Newmarket. Her dam, Peeping Fawn, was a winner on good to firm too so on pedigree it is a case of the faster the ground the better. Although Happily did beat her quite comfortably the last two times they met, the ground was soft on both occasions. September came out on top when they met on yielding and she can turn the tables on Happily tonight back on a sound surface at odds of 5/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SEPTEMBER @ 5/1

Giant Expectations could spring a surprise back up in trip.

 22.05-DIRT MILE

This is not a race that European horses have fared well in since its inception back in 2007. There are no British or Irish contenders this year and it looks a tricky puzzle to try and solve. One clue could be that only two 3yos have won in 10 renewals, so it might pay to concentrate on the older horses. 4yos Mor Spirit and Sharp Azteca are at the head of the market, but at bigger odds I think Giant Expectations could go well.

He is 1/2 at Del Mar, winning a Grade 2 here over 7f on his penultimate start before disappointing in a Grade 1 when dropped back to 6f last time out. He seemed to be only hitting top gear as he hit the line when winning here over 7f so he should be suited by stepping back up in trip. Hopefully they go quickly up front and give this fast finisher a pace to aim at, and if they do he could stay on late and reward each way support at 25/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: GIANT EXPECTATIONS E/W @ 25/1

James Garfield could give Frankie a fourth win in this race.

22.50-JUVENILE TURF

British and Irish trained horses have a fine record in this turf race and Aidan O’Brien leads the way with three wins since 2007. Frankie Dettori has also won it three times and both men will be looking to add to their tallies tonight. O’Brien fires just one bullet in Mendelssohn but I don’t think he represents much value at 11/2 given his achievements on the track. The one I like is the George Scott trained son of Exceed And Excel James Garfield and he will be ridden by that man Frankie Dettori.

This fella scored his first win at Group Level last time when beating Invincible Army over 6f at Newbury. He steps up in class and trip here, but I think he will handle this new distance judging by how he finished off his race at Newbury. He is related to a couple of 8f/10f winners too, so his pedigree suggests he should be fine. He will relish the forecast firm ground and he has a nice draw in stall 7. At odds of 13/2 James Garfield can give Frankie a 4th win in this and he is our NAP of the night.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: JAMES GARFIELD @ 13/2 NAP

Abel Tasman looks a big price at 8/1.

 23.35-DISTAFF

This is another dirt race that has proved to be an unhappy hunting ground for British and Irish horses with none winning since it was first run back in 1984. Mike Smith and William Mott have five wins each and they both look to hold strong hands in this year’s renewal. Elate is the favourite for Mott with Jose Velazquez booked, but we think Abel Tasman can uphold the form that saw her beat Elate in a 9f Grade 1 at Saratoga back in July.

This four time Grade 1 winner probably would have won last time out had she not got to the front as soon as she did. She was a winner here over 7f on her debut so she will have no issues with the track and she is unbeaten at 9f. Her trainer Bob Baffert has yet to win this race, but Abel Tasman could be the filly to break his duck and at odds of 8/1 she definitely represents each way value in what looks a pretty open race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ABEL TASMAN E/W @ 8/1