Lingfield Good Friday All-Weather Championships

I was bitterly disappointed by the run of Georgian Firebird for us at Warwick, but it was apparent from an early stage that it wasn’t going to be her day. She is best when forcing the pace, but Alain Cawley made no attempt to get to the front, instead happy to run wide and prominent.

She lost her place with a slow jump at the third and never recovered, pulling up before the third last. Maybe she will bounce back dropped in trip and ridden more aggressively. Hopefully my selections for All Weather Championships Day at Lingfield perform a bit better!

Race 1

Connections of Spare Parts were fuming that they missed the cut for this 7f Apprentice Handicap, a race he would have had a great chance in. Instead he has to go for the Mile race, and his odds of 80/1 reflect his chance in that. As for this contest, two talented 4yos in Wahash and Silent Echo look to hold solid claims, but the bookies haven’t missed them.

At a much bigger price I think Suzi’s Connoisseur could go well for Lewis Edmunds and Stuart Williams. This 7yo is the very definition of hard to win with, but he is a talented horse when things drop right for him. The draw hasn’t been kind, but this fella is a hold up horse and he likely would have been dropped out anyway.

He should get a strong pace to aim at, he ran a cracker when a close staying on 3rd at Wolverhampton last time and he is undeniably well capable of winning off his current mark of 94. He was forced wide in this contest last year off 99 and was beaten just 2.5L, and off 5lb lower he could outrun his current odds of 25/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SUZI’S CONNOISSEUR E/W @ 25/1

Race 2

This doesn’t look a race that is ripe for an upset and it might pay to side with horses near the head of the market. Red Verdon is currently disputing favouritism with Watersmeet, and of those two I much prefer the chances of the latter. Red Verdon was well beaten on his only start beyond 12f and his best form has come at that trip.

There are no such doubts about Watersmeet’s stamina, and he comes here in search of a four timer. This versatile sort is comfortable setting the pace but he can also drop in, so Fanning will have options from stall 7. He was ultra impressive when winning over course and distance on his penultimate start and at odds of 10/3 he looks the most solid option.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: WATERSMEET @ 10/3

Race 3

This 7f race for fillies and mares looks very open on ratings and perhaps only five or six can be safely discounted. I was very taken with the manner in which Soul Silver won last time at Chelmsford over 8f and she ran well here on her penultimate start over 7f. However, she is drawn in stall 11 and over 7f it could be too much of an obstacle for her to overcome.

Sometimes for a hold up horse an inside draw can be a big negative and Carolinae has been handed the plum draw in stall 1. However, this consistent daughter of Makfi loves it around here, and she had been on the go a long time before her below par effort in this contest last season. Apart from that run her form figures here read 11314 and if she gets luck in running she is well capable of hitting the frame for Charlie Fellowes at odds of 8/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: CAROLINAE E/W @ 8/1

Race 4

The speedsters take centre stage in this 6f race and it is a real ‘blink and you’ll miss it’ affair. Eight will go to post and to be honest, you could easily make a case for all of them. I am going to take a chance on one at a huge price for small stakes each way, and I think Gulliver looks way overpriced if his run here behind Kachy back in February is taken at face value.

Gulliver was drawn in stall 10 that day (Kachy stall 11) and Josephine Gordon dropped Gulliver out the back early on. Kachy broke like a scalded cat and was always in the box seat, and he made the most of his prominent position to just about hold on for the win. Gulliver was just a length behind him in 5th and from the plum draw in stall 1 he could turn the form around.

Gulliver is at his best just sitting off a strong pace and if he breaks on level terms Andrea Atzeni should theoretically be able to sit just in behind the leaders. Kachy won’t get an easy lead with Gifted Master and Double Up in the race, and I think this could set up for a closer. There are few better jockeys at delivering one late than Atzeni, and at odds of 28/1 he is the each way pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: GULLIVER E/W @ 28/1

Race 5

This is all about one horse, and it is hard to see Corinthia Knight losing this on the figures. This son of Society Rock has been a wonderful horse for the Ontoawinner Syndicate, winning three of his first six starts and finishing a cracking 4th on unsuitable ground in a 123k sales race at Newbury. A superb effort in the Breeders Cup followed when beaten just 2L in 4th and on the evidence of his form so far this year he has trained on.

His three runs in 2018 have resulted in three victories and he was very well placed by Archie Watson to pick up a Listed heat at Chantilly earlier this month. He hacked up here on his debut over 5f, Oisin Murphy has form figures of 11121 on him and with a rating of 105 he is in a different league to his rivals. 15/8 could look a big price after the race and he is the NAP of the day.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: CORINTHIA KNIGHT @ 15/8 NAP

Race 6

The penultimate race on the card is the 8f race and a field of eleven will go to post. William Haggas is the trainer of the 11/8 favourite Second Thought and he has been handed a dream draw in stall 1. He is unbeaten in two visits to the track and given he was likely in need of the run when scoring in a Listed heat at Wolverhampton last time he is going to be very hard to beat. He looks a more than worthy favourite and if he runs to form the rest will be playing for place money.

One at a huge price that could go well is French raider King Malpic. This son of King’s Best has finished in the first three on nine of his ten all weather starts, winning five. His form figures over a mile on an artificial surface read 211 and he had a lovely prep run for this at Chantilly when scoring by a neck (7.5f). Olivier Peslier’s form figures on King Malpic read 12221131337 and he rides. At odds of 28/1 he is the each way alternative to the favourite.

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: SECOND THOUGHT 11/8; KING MALPIC E/W 28/1 

Race 7

The concluding race on the card is the 10f middle distance race and ten horses have been declared. One horse that is consistently overlooked by the bookies is Battle Of Marathon and he keeps on proving them wrong. He has been third over course and distance on his last two starts, flying home from an unpromising position in a Listed heat (beaten 1.25L at 66/1) and staying on well late again at 33/1 in a Group 3 a month ago.

This 6yo loves to be delivered fast and late off a strong pace and for this reason he is going to be a hostage to fortune from stall 1. However, Adam Kirby knows him well and if anyone can overcome a poor draw it is him. He has been on board for two of Battle Of Marathon’s best runs and if the gaps come at the right time and he gets a good pace to aim at, it would be no surprise to see Battle Of Marathon reward each way support at odds of 20/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: BATTLE OF MARATHON E/W 20/1 NB

Firebird Could Flourish Upped In Trip At Warwick

Withernsea was bitterly disappointing for us in the Lincoln at Doncaster on Saturday and I am at a loss as to why he ran so poorly. Ground conditions looked ideal, he had a decent record when fresh and the right jockey was on board. Perhaps it was just a stepping stone towards another target later in the season, and he certainly isn’t one to write off just yet.

Georgian Firebird en route to victory at Towcester.

On Wednesday I like the look of one at a big price in the lucky last at Warwick (4.55) and I think Georgian Firebird could go well over the furthest distance she has tackled yet for Barry Leavy and Alain ‘Squeaky’ Cawley. This 8yo daughter of Firebreak is lightly raced for her age, but she has managed to win a bumper and a maiden hurdle.

Both those wins came on soft or heavy ground so she should have no issues on the forecast underfoot conditions at Warwick tomorrow. She was off the track for almost two years after her impressive maiden hurdle win at Towcester, and a fall on her belated return was never going to do much for her confidence. A quiet effort predictably followed after that mishap at Wetherby, but last time out at Huntingdon she showed that she still retains ability.

She was sent off in front by Alain Cawley and half a mile from home she seemed to blow up completely, drifting back through the field. However, she found her second wind approaching the 2nd last and she stayed on eye catchingly up the home straight to finish 3rd, closing on the runner up all the way to the line. It showed she still has enthusiasm for the game, and she shaped as if an extra furlong might be ideal.

At first glance you wouldn’t give anything by Firebreak a chance of staying any further than 2 miles. However, Georgian Firebird’s dam is a half sister to a 2m 6f winner so there is every chance she will stay the trip on pedigree. Alain Cawley keeps the ride and Georgian Firebird races off the same mark as last time (97). This looks a competitive race for the grade so keeps stakes small, but at 25/1 I think Georgian Firebird could give each way backers a good run for their money.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 4.55 WARWICK: GEORGIAN FIREBIRD E/W @ 25/1

Fahey Could Get Off To A Flier At Doncaster

The Flat is back this weekend, with the English and Irish Lincolns the feature races. Richard Fahey will likely be represented in both heats and I think he has a right chance in the English version with Withernsea. Tony Hamilton rides and he will be trying to win it for the third time for his trainer. They combined for success with Brae Hill in 2012 at 25/1 and again with 12/1 shot Gabrial in 2015.

Withernsea endured a troubled passage in 2017.

In fact, between 2012 to 2015 (no ride in 2016) Hamilton was on the Fahey horse that finished highest in the field. His form figures in that period read 1361 so he is clearly Fahey's go to jockey for the Lincoln. Last year Withernsea was a very unlucky 9th from stall 7 off a mark of 97 on good to soft ground and he returns for a repeat bid off the same rating. Held up in rear of mid division he was still travelling sweetly enough as they hit the three pole, but from then on in it all went Pete Tong.



Just as Hamilton was starting to push Withernsea along at the 2f pole a retreating Top Notch Tonto drifted into his path and checked Withernsea. Hamilton had to momentarily stop riding at an absolutely pivotal point in the race and when you lose momentum at such a late stage it is hard to regain it.

However, after he switched Withernsea he started to stay on, but just inside the furlong marker he had to be switched again and as a result any chance he had of sneaking a place disappeared. I think it was a cracking run if you consider the all the action unfolded on the opposite side at the business end and though he finished 9th he was just over 3L behind the winner and around a length behind Dolphin Vista in 5th.

With a bit more luck in running I believe he could have gone very close and off the same mark from a better draw on his ideal ground I think he could outrun his current odds of 40/1. Donncha looks a big danger off a 3lb lower mark than when a fast finishing 3rd in last term’s renewal and a big run from him looks on the cards with top jockey Andrea Atzeni booked. He is only 20/1 though, and at twice the price I think Withernsea has an equally good chance of hitting the frame. He is the each way selection.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: DONCASTER 3.35-WITHERNSEA E/W 40/1

Seeyouatmidnight Looks Overpriced For Grand National

Last year I managed to find One For Arthur ante-post for the Grand National, and if he was running again this season it would be hard not to fancy him. Lucinda Russell’s charge was ruled out of the race a few months ago but Scotland still has a fighting chance of landing the race for the second year in a row. Seeyouatmidnight is a horse I have long held in high regard and off a mark of 149 Sandy Thomson’s 10yo son of Midnight Legend could be thrown in.

On the right ground Seeyouatmidnight is a serious horse.

He has some serious graded form in the book over timber and over hurdles, including Grade 2 wins in both codes and a 3rd in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at the Grand National meeting on ground quicker than ideal back in 2014. He has proved to be a better chaser though, and arguably his best effort yet came in the Scottish National when a fine 3rd to Vicente off the same mark off which he will race at Aintree,149.

Again, good to soft ground was not ideal that day as Seeyouatmidnight is far more effective on soft or heavy. Ground like that has been a rare occurrence at Aintree in recent years, but the weather has been all over the place in 2018 and with another ‘Beast From The East’ rumoured to be on the way at Easter, soft or heavy ground at Aintree is a very real possibility.

Blaklion is the current market leader for the Grand National at a best price of 12/1, but he is the 2nd highest rated horse in the race off 161 and it is never easy in this stamina sapping contest carrying so much weight. He will have to concede 12lbs to Sandy Thomson’s charge, and if it comes up soft I know who I would rather be on.

Blaklion was far too good for Seeyouatmidnight when they met in the RSA Chase in 2016. Nigel Twiston Davies’ horse won the race with Seeyouatmidnight 32L back in 7th, but the ground was good that day and that suited Blaklion. They had previously met at Cheltenham in a Grade 2 in January 2016 (21f hvy) and in receipt of 4lb Seeyouatmidnight comfortably had Blaklion’s measure by over 3L.

Seeyouatmidnight will be 8lb better off at Aintree and if it comes up soft I think he can confirm the form. He proved his stamina when 3rd over 4 miles at Ayr in the Scottish National and the sole worry is his lack of a recent outing. He is due to have a spin over 20f at Newbury on Saturday and if he runs well there I can see him shortening in the market. He has had a wind op too and his trainer has reported that the son of Midnight Legend has been working very well.

Plans for a prep run at Kelso were twice scuppered by the weather, so with just a three week break between Saturday and the big one I can’t see him being given too hard a race at the weekend. Once he runs respectably and comes homes safe I will be happy, and it should be all systems go for Aintree. I have long thought this horse capable of winning a big one, and with a bit of luck he will get his ground and go close in the biggest one of all.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: GRAND NATIONAL: SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT E/W 33/1

The Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018: The Stats That Matter

Well, I am glad to report that we made it two in a row in the Champion Hurdle with our last stats piece (read here). Buveur D’Air, Mick Jazz and Melon were the three horses left standing, and the three of them filled the first three places with Mick Jazz coming home in 3rd. Not a bad outcome for us, and if anyone decided to do the combination tricast the dividend was over £75. Today, our focus switches to the Gold Cup, so let’s find out will the stats matter for the big one.

Definitly Red is a leading contender.

Not One For The Old Boys

The Gold Cup is often viewed as the ultimate test of a chaser, as it requires a unique combination of stamina and speed that very few horses possess. Last year Sizing John showed a lovely turn of foot to put the race to bed after the last, but this year the emphasis might be a bit more on stamina given the likely testing conditions. As a rule though, no matter what the ground, older horses don’t have a great record in the race and the same applies to younger ones.

I looked at the winners of every Gold Cup since the turn of the century and Long Run was the only 6yo to score in that time. Five 9yos, six 8yos and five 7yos have won in that period, so it makes sense to stick with horses in that age bracket. That means we can wave goodbye to 10yo Outlander. Amazingly, 17 of the 18 horses that remain are the optimum age, so we will have to narrow the field further.

Cut: Outlander 33/1.

Killultagh Vic just misses the cut.

Horses For Courses

Looking back at the last ten winners of the race it is hard to ignore the fact that eight of those horses had graded placed or winning form at Cheltenham before winning the Gold Cup. There are just two exceptions to this rule, Synchronised and Kauto Star before his first win.

The rest all had good runs under their belts in Graded company here, so this allows us to narrow the field even more. Some very fancied horses fall by the wayside including Irish National winner Our Duke, Killultagh Vic, Total Recall Edwulf, Anibale Fly and Bachasson. After that cull there is a total of eight horses still standing, and the final stat that matters is price.

Cut: Our Duke 11/2; Killultagh Vic 9/1; Total Recall 16/1; Edwulf 16/1; Anibale Fly 33/1; Bachasson 33/1; Double Shuffle 50/1; Tea For Two 66/1;

Odds A Good Indicator

Since the year 2000 the Gold Cup, just like a lot of Championship races, has been dominated by the market leaders. Only one horse has scored at double figure odds in that period, Lord Windermere who pulled off a shock win at odds of 20/1 in 2014. The last big priced winner before that was Cool Dawn who scored at 25/1 back in 1998 (also the last 10yo to score which might explain his price).

Of those that are left just two horses tick this particular box, Native River and Might Bite. However, it now looks more than likely that both Definitly Red and Road To Respect will flirt with going off at single figures, so they sneak through. We say goodbye to American, Minella Rocco and Djakadam at this stage, as well as Saphir Du Rheu.

Cut: Djakadam 33/1; Minella Rocco 25/1; American 25/1; Saphir Du Rheu 80/1.

Road To Respect could land the Gold Cup.

The Verdict

And then there were four… The stats have decided that the Gold Cup lies between Might Bite, Native River, Road To Respect and Definitly Red. For me, on soft ground, I think Might Bite could be a shade vulnerable. He has looked more a speed horse than a stayer to me, and he could get caught out over this gruelling trip on a testing surface. Native River, on the other hand, is the exact opposite. He has an abundance of stamina, but he lacks gears and while he should be bang there at the last he might get done for toe up the hill.

So that leaves us with two main contenders, Definitly Red for Brian Ellison and Road To Respect for Gigginstown and Noel Meade. Road To Respect won the Brown Advisory Plate doing handstands on good ground last year and he proved his aptitude for this trip on easy ground when winning over 25f on soft at Punchestown on his seasonal return. He scored at 24f in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown on yielding ground last time out. (Outlander and Minella Rocco well behind).

Definitly Red is the one I have fancied for this for some time along with Sizing John, and the ground has come in his favour. He has won his last two starts, including a Grade 2 here easily last time. The big worry has to be his festival form figures of 7PF, but his win here last time has allayed those fears slightly. However, I think the form of Road To Respect’s win at Leopardstown is better than Definitly Red’s win at Cheltenham, and for that reason he is the selection at odds of 14/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: 1. ROAD TO RESPECT 2. DEFINITLY RED 3. NATIVE RIVER 4. MIGHT BITE.

Cheltenham 2018 Day 1: The Handicaps

So, the declarations for Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival are in and it was bad news for a couple of my selections. Neither Buywise or Brelade were declared so I had to go back to the drawing board. Luckily enough, both were non-runner no bet at the time I put them up so at least we get our stakes back. and I have picked out a couple of alternative selections for both races.

Minella Daddy won't mind the ground at Cheltenham.

Ultima Chase

If the weather forecast is to be believed then conditions are going to be extremely testing on Tuesday. An ability to handle heavy ground will be key, and one horse that should have no issues on the surface is the Peter Bowen trained Minella Daddy. He bumped into Regal Encore on a rare going day last time out at Ascot and off just 2lb higher he remains a well handicapped horse.

This lightly raced 8yo son of Flemensfirth has won two of his seven starts over fences and been runner up on another three of those starts. He has placed form on heavy in a Novice Hurdle behind Final Nudge and he has won on soft ground. He stayed on again in the closing stages after being headed last time and when you consider it was only his 2nd run back after a long break he could strip fitter now. He has placed form off 142 so he looks decently handicapped and at odds of 20/1 he could run a big race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MINELLA DADDY E/W 20/1

The form of Report To Base's 2nd at Cheltenham has been franked.

Close Brothers Novices’ Chase


I really fancied Brelade for this race but Gordon Elliott has other plans for him. After looking at the race again my eye was drawn to another Welsh horse, this time Report To Base for Evan Williams and The Ruckers. This stoutly bred son of Westerner will absolutely relish conditions and he is of interest on his excellent 2nd here in a Listed Hurdle behind Coo Star Sivola in January 2017, a horse he was conceding 6lb to. That horse is vying for favouritism in the Ultima off a mark of 142, yet Report To Base can be backed at 20/1 for this contest off 139.

Subsequent Grade 1 winners Poetic Rhythm and Pingshou were back in 3rd and 4th that day at Cheltenham, so it has turned out to be a really strong piece of form. Report To Base has hacked up on his last two starts in small fields at Hereford and Exeter, though he was disqualified at the latter track due to Adam Wedge missing a fence. Report To Base will love heavy ground, he looks potentially extremely well handicapped off 139 and at odds of 20/1 he should be backed each way.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: REPORT TO BASE E/W @ 20/1

Keep The Faith With Killaro For Fairyhouse

I have to admit, I was gutted to see Killaro Boy declared for Leopardstown on Thursday morning. He was one of my biggest fancies for the week at Cheltenham, but after seeing how he ran at Leopardstown I am buzzing. He wasn’t given a hard time by Robbie Colgan and even after a mid race stumble he stayed on well to be 4th.

Killaro Boy is no 100/1 shot if getting a run in the Irish National.

Adrian Murray stated last week that there would be no point in heading across the pond unless the horse was 100%, so presumably he was not in peak condition at Leopardstown. However, if that was the case he still managed to run an absolute cracker to finish 4th, staying on strongly after the last and running right through the finishing line.

I outlined my reasons for strongly fancying him for the Kim Muir here, and one of my slight doubts was that he would be going left handed. He will have no such worries at Fairyhouse, and indeed he is 2/3 at the track. His most impressive performance came there last season when he won as he liked in what has turned out to be a decent Novice Chase.

The way that form has worked out I believe he is extremely well handicapped off 134. He won by 10L and the 2nd home is now rated 140 and Phil’s Magic ran a cracker off 129 behind Gold Cup bound Total Recall in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown. Okay, he didn’t win today but he likely badly needed the run and he should come on leaps and bounds for it.


For five of the last six years, a rating of 134 was easily high enough to get into the Irish National. Last year the combination of an increase in prize money and a 4 week gap to Cheltenham meant that he wouldn’t have made the cut.

However, with just a 2 week gap this time I am very optimistic that he will sneak in off a low weight. If he does, I can guarantee he won’t be priced up at 100/1 and if he gets decent ground he is capable of running a huge race. A small ante-post investment is advised.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: IRISH GRAND NATIONAL-KILLARO BOY E/W 100/1

Plenty Could Pounce Late Off Strong Pace At Sandown

For the last two weeks I have been poring through the cards for Cheltenham trying to find value bets. Festival fever has taken hold big time and I almost forgot that Saturday is Imperial Cup day at Sandown. 17 horses have been declared, the ground is soft and I think Man Of Plenty looks overpriced for Sophie Leech and crack 5lb claimer Sean Houlihan.

 

Man Of Plenty needs a strong pace over 2 miles.

This admirably consistent 9yo son of Manduro has run some cracking races in defeat in big handicaps this season and I firmly believe he has the ability to pick a nice pot up if things fall right for him on the day. I am hoping that this race will be run to suit, and I think at 40/1 he could hit the frame.

Man Of Plenty is undeniably a difficult horse to win with, and his last victory came over much further in a Novice at Sedgefield all the way back in 2014 (21f gd). He was won over 2 miles on the level too, so evidently he has no shortage of stamina. However, he has gears too and some of his very best form has come in 2 mile handicaps.

He was 7th here in a 23.5f handicap last time out, 9L behind the winner Topofthegame off 123. He faded late in the day but it was still a good run, as was his penultimate start over 19f at Ascot (19.5f sft) when just over 6L behind Jenkins. However, the run that really piqued my interest in Man Of Plenty for today came at Haydock back in November.

As regular readers will know, I strongly fancy Limited Reserve for the Coral Cup (read here) and over 19f on heavy ground Man Of Plenty finished 2nd to him off 123 with Brian Hughes on board. He was running from 4lb out of the handicap (just like he is here) and he was 8L behind Limited Reserve who was running off 125 with James Bowen claiming 5lb.

That horse followed up off 8lb higher next time, and with Sean Houlihan claiming 5lb Man Of Plenty is effectively running off 6lb lower today. Leech also runs Birch Hill, but the fact that she has decided to claim off Man Of Plenty suggests that he is her main hope. Houlihan has won just 1 from 18 rides for Leech, but he has finished in the first four on 12 occasions, a frame hitting strike rate of 72%.

He ran a cracker on his last run over this course and distance, finishing 5th beaten 7L off 123 for Aidan Coleman. They just didn’t go fast enough early doors for him and though he stayed on well he just couldn’t reach the leaders. He looks guaranteed to get a strong pace to aim at here, and at odds of 40/1 I think Man Of Plenty could stay on late and challenge for a place, at the very least.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 2.25 SANDOWN-MAN OF PLENTY E/W 40/1 (5 PLACES)

Cheltenham 2018 Day 2: The Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

For many, Samcro is the biggest certainty of the festival. However, what race he will actually run in is anything but certain. Rumour has it that Samcro is at the centre of a tug of war between Gordon Elliott, who wants to run in the Supreme and Eddie O’Leary, who thinks the Ballymore is the right option. History would suggest that the owners will eventually win the day, but with just a few days to go Samcro is still in both races.

Tower Bridge could improve on just his 4th hurdle start.

If Samcro does go to the Supreme this race will be blown wide open. Next best in the betting is the Willie Mullins trained 6yo Next Destination, and plenty of shrewd judges fancy this fella even if Samcro decides to take his chance. However, he is also a short price for the Albert Bartlett so theoretically, the two current market leaders for this race could run elsewhere.

Nicky Henderson’s unbeaten 6yo On The Blind Side could represent a bit of value at odds of 6/1, especially given the fact that he is the only course and distance winner in the field. However, I am going to suggest backing one at much a bigger price for small stakes against the market leaders, and this fella did us a huge favour at the Dublin Racing Festival last month at Leopardstown.

It isn’t often you see a horse that gets beaten into 4th in a maiden hurdle winning a Grade 1 next time up, but that is exactly what Tower Bridge did, and on ground softer than ideal. The dual good ground bumper winner showed promise when staying on for 4th on his previous run in a 20f maiden hurdle, and the step up to 22f did the trick as he stayed on dourly to get up in the dying strides (advised at 40/1 here).

Joseph O’Brien’s 5yo son of High Chaparral beat Jetz by a head that day, and if you consider that Samcro beat Jetz by 12L then it does leave Tower Bridge with a lot to find. Also, the selection needed every millimetre of the 2 mile 6f trip to prevail, but the stiff uphill finish and likely faster pace at Cheltenham should be enough to compensate for the slight drop in trip. As well as that, this race could still cut up.

Barry Geraghty could come in for the ride, but to be honest I hope JJ Slevin gets the nod. After all, Geraghty has two defeats from two rides on Tower Bridge, whereas Slevin has a 100% record. Whoever gets the leg up, at odds of 25/1 I think Tower Bridge is worth backing each way and if the ground has good in the description on the day, increase your stake.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: BALLYMORE HURDLE: TOWER BRIDGE E/W @ 25/1

Cheltenham 2018 Day 2: The Coral Cup

With a field of 26 likely to go to post, this race is something of a lottery. However, with torrential rain forecast to fall on already soft ground this weekend on The Cotswolds, the ground could be testing for this race on Wednesday. One horse that won’t mind a deterioration in underfoot conditions is Limited Reserve, a horse I tipped up for Mybettingbonus when 2nd earlier this season at Ascot (15.5f gd).

There could be lots more to come from Limited Reserve.

He stayed on well that day, and he simply got outpaced by a faster horse. Stepped up to 19f on heavy ground next time out at Haydock he made no mistake, hacking up by 8L off a mark of 125 with James Bowen claiming 5lb. It was a further 20L back to the 3rd home so it really was a dominant display from the 6yo son of Court Cave.

Christian Williams obviously subscribes to the old saying ‘if it ain’t broke don’t fix it’, and he kept Limited Reserve to identical conditions on his next start off his revised mark of 133. This time he was made to work a lot harder to prevail by a neck from Zalvados, form that has subsequently been franked by the runner up. Again, the front two pulled some way clear of the rest so a 5lb rise was lenient in hindsight, in my opinion.

So, now rated 138, Christian Williams has put Limited Reserve away since that December 23rd win at Haydock obviously with a trip to Cheltenham in mind. His current mark would have been sufficient to get into the race for four of the last five years, but at the time of writing he does need 32 horses to come out. And, hopefully with young Bowen’s claim (if he rides) he will have a nice low racing weight.

After his last win at Haydock Christian Williams was adamant there was more to come from Limited Reserve. Post race he commented ‘I think Limited Reserve is better with a low weight in a better race where they go a strong gallop and he doesn't want this ground.' That sounds exactly like what he is likely to encounter at Cheltenham, and though he may not want testing ground, there is no doubting his ability to handle it. 

A friend informed me today that it has been an awfully long time since a favourite has scored in a handicap at the festival. In fact, the last jolly to oblige was Fingal Bay who scored at 9/2 in the Pertemps all the way back in 2014. Log may that run continue I say!! Limited Reserve can be backed at odds of 25/1 with William Hill, and I am willing to chance him ante-post because I believe he will get in to the race. He is 20/1 with other firms who are offering non runner no bet, but I am going to be greedy! If he runs, he has outstanding each way claims. 

STEVOS’ SELECTION: LIMITED RESERVE E/W 25/1 (CORAL CUP)

Cheltenham 2018: Potential Plots

McCoy and McManus have executed plenty of festival plots over the years.

The handicaps at Cheltenham can be a minefield for punters. With 20+ runner fields and the majority of horses trying their best, it can be hard to find a winner. Plenty of trainers and owners try to lay out horses for handicaps at the festival, which basically means getting them to the race in tip top shape and most importantly, on a workable mark. The likes of Tony Martin and JP McManus are famous for pulling off these sort of Cheltenham coups, and I have picked out what I think could be a couple of potential plot horses at this year’s festival.

Project Bluebook

John Quinn is a trainer that is no stranger to success at Cheltenham, and I think his JP McManus owned 5yo Project Bluebook could be one to watch if getting a run in one of the handicap hurdles. I have had my eye on this fella ever since he finished well for 4th in the Fred Winter last season off 138 (16.5f gd/sft), and he followed that up with a solid win in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse on his next outing (16f gd/yld).

Project Bluebook looks dangerously well handicapped.

That win earned the son of Sinndar a mark of 141, and he showed at Galway when 6th behind Tigris River that he had the potential to be effective off that rating. However, I firmly believe that all roads have led to Cheltenham ever since his fine 4th there in 2017 and you can put a line through his two poor runs this season (although his 8th behind Elgin a Cheltenham in November was a better run than the distance beaten suggests).

Project Bluebook is now rated 136, 2lb lower than the mark off which he was 4th here last year. He holds entries in the Coral Cup (50s), County Hurdle (33s) and the Martin Pipe (33s). He looks most likely to get a run in the County, but my personal preference would be to see him upped in trip for the Martin Pipe. Whatever contest he ends up going for I think he will be a different horse to the one we have seen so far this season, and an e/w bet is recommended if he does manage to get in to a race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: PROJECT BLUEBOOK E/W 33/1 (COUNTY/MARTIN PIPE)

Gordon Elliott knows how to get one handicapped.

Brelade

Another trainer who is a master at getting one ready for Cheltenham is Irish handler Gordon Elliott. A few years ago the handicaps were usually his best chance of success at the festival, but the backing of Gigginstown means he has his sights set a lot higher these days. However, he still has plenty of bullets to fire at the handicaps, and I think Brelade could be a big danger in whatever race he shows up in.

This strong travelling 6yo son of Presenting has been expensive to follow at times but in fairness to him he ran in some very hot races after completing a bumper/maiden double at Naas and Navan. He was only beaten 2L by Saturnas in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown (16f yld), and he was just 3L behind Bacardys at the same track in another Grade 1 in February (18f sft). He ran a respectable race at the festival last year when 6th in the Neptune (21f gd/sft), just running out of petrol in the closing stages.

Brelade could be well treated off a chase mark of 143.

Brelade bumped into two potential superstars on two of his five chase starts this season, chasing home Petit Mouchoir at Punchestown and Footpad at Navan. On both occasions the ground was softer than ideal, but nonetheless it is solid form behind two Grade 1 winners. Brelade hasn’t been seen since finishing 3rd on bottomless ground at Fairyhouse in December, and presumably he has been freshened up with a spring campaign on better ground in mind.

He has been handed a chase mark of 143 by the British handicapper, and on a literal reading of his form behind Petit Mouchoir and Footpad that looks more than fair. He was 7L behind the former who is rated 158, and he was 11L behind the latter who is rated 162. With further improvement to come on what will hopefully be decent ground, I think Brelade is worth backing at 33/1 for the Close Brothers Novices’ Chase on the Tuesday with non runner no bet now available. He will need good ground though, so keep initial stakes small until there is more certainty on what the underfoot conditions will be like.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: BRELADE E/W 33/1 (CLOSE BROTHERS CHASE)

Make A Killing On Killaro In The Kim Muir

As regular readers of the blog will know, Adrian Murray is a trainer I have huge respect for. He doesn’t have many horses, but he places them very well and I think he could have a very well handicapped horse in Killaro Boy. This very lightly raced 9yo son of Mr Dinos looks assured of a run in the Kim Muir off a mark of 135, and I think he has a right chance upped in trip.
 

Killaro Boy is a crazy price for the Kim Muir at 66/1.

He made a big impression on me with the manner of his win last season on good to yielding ground at Fairyhouse, just his second career start on decent ground. His only previous run on better than soft came in a point to point on his debut and he hacked up that day too by 5L. He scored by twice that distance in that Novice Chase at Fairyhouse (20f gd/yld) and the way he was careering away at the finish suggests that he could be even better over further.

On his previous start he showed his versatility regarding ground by recording a pillar to post success in a handicap chase at Gowran on bottomless ground over 20f off a mark of 113. A mistake at the last wasn’t enough to stop him from winning and he kept on dourly to score by 2L. He also managed to pick up a race over timber at Fairyhouse in 2016, and in total he has won 3 of his 9 starts under rules.

He returned to action with a pipe opener at Gowran back in January, and though he was well beaten he was likely to have needed the outing badly from a fitness perspective. That should have put him spot on for a Spring campaign and Murray has him entered in the Kim Muir and also the Irish Grand National. His Irish rating is 134 over fences, and the English handicapper has been quite kind and only given him an extra pound, so he heads to Cheltenham off 135.

Young Barry Browne is 2/2 on Killaro Boy, riding him for his win at Fairyhouse and also when he won his point to point. He will likely keep the ride and it is always good to have a jockey on board that knows the horse well. From a handicapping perspective I think a mark of 135 should be well within his capabilities on a couple of pieces of his form. He had Phil’s Magic nearly 13L behind at Fairyhouse and that fella is now rated 129 and was 6th off that rating in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown.

Call It Magic was just under 10L behind him in 2nd that day and he went on to win two chases afterwards, including a handicap easily off 132 and he is now rated 140. So, I think on that evidence that Killaro Boy is feasibly handicapped and he is not ground dependent. The only slight worry is the step up in trip, but he looks like a stayer to me and he has a 3 mile win in a point to point in the book. I think he is criminally overpriced at 66/1 and at that price he rates as one of the best e/w bets of the week.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: KIM MUIR CHASE: KILLARO BOY E/W 66/1 NRNB

Cheltenham Day 1: Ultima Handicap Chase

When I glanced through this race I almost had to do a double take when I saw the price of Buywise. This horse has been good to me down through the years, but always for place money. I had lost faith in him by the time of his last win in a decent 3 mile handicap chase on heavy ground at Sandown back in January. However, that was a superb performance off a mark of 138 and it proved that he has still got plenty of ability.
 

Buywise has festival form in the book.

Evan Williams' charge reverted to hurdles last time out, again at Sandown, and though he finished well down the field he had excuses. He was denied a clear run as they swung around the top and he was also racing on the inside of the track. The horses that raced wider out fared a lot better than those on the inner, and in any case surely Williams just wanted Buywise to have a run to keep him ticking over for a repeat bid in this race.

He is racing off a mark of 145 here, the same rating off which he was a fine 4th in this contest a year ago. He was a fair way behind the first three, but he stayed on well for fourth and both he and the fifth were a long way clear of the rest. That was his third run at the Cheltenham Festival in total. He was a fine 5th in the 21f Listed Novices’ Chase in 2014 (gd) and he bettered that when 3rd behind Darna in the Brown Advisory Handicap in 2015 off 146 (21f gd).

In 2016 he swerved the festival to have a crack at the Grand National at Aintree but unfortunately the experiment didn’t work out. The trip was just too far for him and he finished well beaten. In 2016/17 he failed to win, but he signed off with that superb effort in this race when 4th behind Un Temps Pour Tout.

He looked like he was back to his very best at Sandown two runs back when beating Pete The Feat by a couple of lengths, and if he is in the same form again for this contest he will be there or thereabouts. He has yet to win off 145, but he has placed form off as high as 151 so from a handicapping perspective he should be fine.

The quicker they go early the better, as this fella will be storming up the hill at the finish. Maybe it might be asking a bit much for him to win at 11 years old, but at odds of 50/1 I think the old boy might have one big day left in him. I cannot understand how he is such a monstrous price, and he has to be worth a few quid each way with non runner no bet now available.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ULTIMA CHASE: BUYWISE E/W @ 50/1 NRNB