Cheltenham 2018: Potential Plots

McCoy and McManus have executed plenty of festival plots over the years.

The handicaps at Cheltenham can be a minefield for punters. With 20+ runner fields and the majority of horses trying their best, it can be hard to find a winner. Plenty of trainers and owners try to lay out horses for handicaps at the festival, which basically means getting them to the race in tip top shape and most importantly, on a workable mark. The likes of Tony Martin and JP McManus are famous for pulling off these sort of Cheltenham coups, and I have picked out what I think could be a couple of potential plot horses at this year’s festival.

Project Bluebook

John Quinn is a trainer that is no stranger to success at Cheltenham, and I think his JP McManus owned 5yo Project Bluebook could be one to watch if getting a run in one of the handicap hurdles. I have had my eye on this fella ever since he finished well for 4th in the Fred Winter last season off 138 (16.5f gd/sft), and he followed that up with a solid win in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse on his next outing (16f gd/yld).

Project Bluebook looks dangerously well handicapped.

That win earned the son of Sinndar a mark of 141, and he showed at Galway when 6th behind Tigris River that he had the potential to be effective off that rating. However, I firmly believe that all roads have led to Cheltenham ever since his fine 4th there in 2017 and you can put a line through his two poor runs this season (although his 8th behind Elgin a Cheltenham in November was a better run than the distance beaten suggests).

Project Bluebook is now rated 136, 2lb lower than the mark off which he was 4th here last year. He holds entries in the Coral Cup (50s), County Hurdle (33s) and the Martin Pipe (33s). He looks most likely to get a run in the County, but my personal preference would be to see him upped in trip for the Martin Pipe. Whatever contest he ends up going for I think he will be a different horse to the one we have seen so far this season, and an e/w bet is recommended if he does manage to get in to a race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: PROJECT BLUEBOOK E/W 33/1 (COUNTY/MARTIN PIPE)

Gordon Elliott knows how to get one handicapped.

Brelade

Another trainer who is a master at getting one ready for Cheltenham is Irish handler Gordon Elliott. A few years ago the handicaps were usually his best chance of success at the festival, but the backing of Gigginstown means he has his sights set a lot higher these days. However, he still has plenty of bullets to fire at the handicaps, and I think Brelade could be a big danger in whatever race he shows up in.

This strong travelling 6yo son of Presenting has been expensive to follow at times but in fairness to him he ran in some very hot races after completing a bumper/maiden double at Naas and Navan. He was only beaten 2L by Saturnas in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown (16f yld), and he was just 3L behind Bacardys at the same track in another Grade 1 in February (18f sft). He ran a respectable race at the festival last year when 6th in the Neptune (21f gd/sft), just running out of petrol in the closing stages.

Brelade could be well treated off a chase mark of 143.

Brelade bumped into two potential superstars on two of his five chase starts this season, chasing home Petit Mouchoir at Punchestown and Footpad at Navan. On both occasions the ground was softer than ideal, but nonetheless it is solid form behind two Grade 1 winners. Brelade hasn’t been seen since finishing 3rd on bottomless ground at Fairyhouse in December, and presumably he has been freshened up with a spring campaign on better ground in mind.

He has been handed a chase mark of 143 by the British handicapper, and on a literal reading of his form behind Petit Mouchoir and Footpad that looks more than fair. He was 7L behind the former who is rated 158, and he was 11L behind the latter who is rated 162. With further improvement to come on what will hopefully be decent ground, I think Brelade is worth backing at 33/1 for the Close Brothers Novices’ Chase on the Tuesday with non runner no bet now available. He will need good ground though, so keep initial stakes small until there is more certainty on what the underfoot conditions will be like.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: BRELADE E/W 33/1 (CLOSE BROTHERS CHASE)