Cheltenham 2018 Day 2: The Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

For many, Samcro is the biggest certainty of the festival. However, what race he will actually run in is anything but certain. Rumour has it that Samcro is at the centre of a tug of war between Gordon Elliott, who wants to run in the Supreme and Eddie O’Leary, who thinks the Ballymore is the right option. History would suggest that the owners will eventually win the day, but with just a few days to go Samcro is still in both races.

Tower Bridge could improve on just his 4th hurdle start.

If Samcro does go to the Supreme this race will be blown wide open. Next best in the betting is the Willie Mullins trained 6yo Next Destination, and plenty of shrewd judges fancy this fella even if Samcro decides to take his chance. However, he is also a short price for the Albert Bartlett so theoretically, the two current market leaders for this race could run elsewhere.

Nicky Henderson’s unbeaten 6yo On The Blind Side could represent a bit of value at odds of 6/1, especially given the fact that he is the only course and distance winner in the field. However, I am going to suggest backing one at much a bigger price for small stakes against the market leaders, and this fella did us a huge favour at the Dublin Racing Festival last month at Leopardstown.

It isn’t often you see a horse that gets beaten into 4th in a maiden hurdle winning a Grade 1 next time up, but that is exactly what Tower Bridge did, and on ground softer than ideal. The dual good ground bumper winner showed promise when staying on for 4th on his previous run in a 20f maiden hurdle, and the step up to 22f did the trick as he stayed on dourly to get up in the dying strides (advised at 40/1 here).

Joseph O’Brien’s 5yo son of High Chaparral beat Jetz by a head that day, and if you consider that Samcro beat Jetz by 12L then it does leave Tower Bridge with a lot to find. Also, the selection needed every millimetre of the 2 mile 6f trip to prevail, but the stiff uphill finish and likely faster pace at Cheltenham should be enough to compensate for the slight drop in trip. As well as that, this race could still cut up.

Barry Geraghty could come in for the ride, but to be honest I hope JJ Slevin gets the nod. After all, Geraghty has two defeats from two rides on Tower Bridge, whereas Slevin has a 100% record. Whoever gets the leg up, at odds of 25/1 I think Tower Bridge is worth backing each way and if the ground has good in the description on the day, increase your stake.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: BALLYMORE HURDLE: TOWER BRIDGE E/W @ 25/1