The Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018: The Stats That Matter

Well, I am glad to report that we made it two in a row in the Champion Hurdle with our last stats piece (read here). Buveur D’Air, Mick Jazz and Melon were the three horses left standing, and the three of them filled the first three places with Mick Jazz coming home in 3rd. Not a bad outcome for us, and if anyone decided to do the combination tricast the dividend was over £75. Today, our focus switches to the Gold Cup, so let’s find out will the stats matter for the big one.

Definitly Red is a leading contender.

Not One For The Old Boys

The Gold Cup is often viewed as the ultimate test of a chaser, as it requires a unique combination of stamina and speed that very few horses possess. Last year Sizing John showed a lovely turn of foot to put the race to bed after the last, but this year the emphasis might be a bit more on stamina given the likely testing conditions. As a rule though, no matter what the ground, older horses don’t have a great record in the race and the same applies to younger ones.

I looked at the winners of every Gold Cup since the turn of the century and Long Run was the only 6yo to score in that time. Five 9yos, six 8yos and five 7yos have won in that period, so it makes sense to stick with horses in that age bracket. That means we can wave goodbye to 10yo Outlander. Amazingly, 17 of the 18 horses that remain are the optimum age, so we will have to narrow the field further.

Cut: Outlander 33/1.

Killultagh Vic just misses the cut.

Horses For Courses

Looking back at the last ten winners of the race it is hard to ignore the fact that eight of those horses had graded placed or winning form at Cheltenham before winning the Gold Cup. There are just two exceptions to this rule, Synchronised and Kauto Star before his first win.

The rest all had good runs under their belts in Graded company here, so this allows us to narrow the field even more. Some very fancied horses fall by the wayside including Irish National winner Our Duke, Killultagh Vic, Total Recall Edwulf, Anibale Fly and Bachasson. After that cull there is a total of eight horses still standing, and the final stat that matters is price.

Cut: Our Duke 11/2; Killultagh Vic 9/1; Total Recall 16/1; Edwulf 16/1; Anibale Fly 33/1; Bachasson 33/1; Double Shuffle 50/1; Tea For Two 66/1;

Odds A Good Indicator

Since the year 2000 the Gold Cup, just like a lot of Championship races, has been dominated by the market leaders. Only one horse has scored at double figure odds in that period, Lord Windermere who pulled off a shock win at odds of 20/1 in 2014. The last big priced winner before that was Cool Dawn who scored at 25/1 back in 1998 (also the last 10yo to score which might explain his price).

Of those that are left just two horses tick this particular box, Native River and Might Bite. However, it now looks more than likely that both Definitly Red and Road To Respect will flirt with going off at single figures, so they sneak through. We say goodbye to American, Minella Rocco and Djakadam at this stage, as well as Saphir Du Rheu.

Cut: Djakadam 33/1; Minella Rocco 25/1; American 25/1; Saphir Du Rheu 80/1.

Road To Respect could land the Gold Cup.

The Verdict

And then there were four… The stats have decided that the Gold Cup lies between Might Bite, Native River, Road To Respect and Definitly Red. For me, on soft ground, I think Might Bite could be a shade vulnerable. He has looked more a speed horse than a stayer to me, and he could get caught out over this gruelling trip on a testing surface. Native River, on the other hand, is the exact opposite. He has an abundance of stamina, but he lacks gears and while he should be bang there at the last he might get done for toe up the hill.

So that leaves us with two main contenders, Definitly Red for Brian Ellison and Road To Respect for Gigginstown and Noel Meade. Road To Respect won the Brown Advisory Plate doing handstands on good ground last year and he proved his aptitude for this trip on easy ground when winning over 25f on soft at Punchestown on his seasonal return. He scored at 24f in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown on yielding ground last time out. (Outlander and Minella Rocco well behind).

Definitly Red is the one I have fancied for this for some time along with Sizing John, and the ground has come in his favour. He has won his last two starts, including a Grade 2 here easily last time. The big worry has to be his festival form figures of 7PF, but his win here last time has allayed those fears slightly. However, I think the form of Road To Respect’s win at Leopardstown is better than Definitly Red’s win at Cheltenham, and for that reason he is the selection at odds of 14/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: 1. ROAD TO RESPECT 2. DEFINITLY RED 3. NATIVE RIVER 4. MIGHT BITE.