Sand Could Raise His Game Up In Trip In The Cambridgeshire

The Cambridgeshire Handicap is one of the highlights on a brilliant Saturday of racing on the Rowley course at Newmarket and I like the look of a 40/1 shot who has run cracking races in defeat in a couple of hot handicaps this season. Raising Sand was doing all his best work at the finish when beaten just over 3L behind Ripp Orf at Ascot over 7f last time, and it was a similar story when he was 4L behind Settle For Bay over 8f at the Royal Meeting.

 

Raising Sand is very interesting up in trip at Newmarket.

That Royal Ascot run came off a mark of 100, while he was off 98 last time so, with Nicola Currie’s 3lb claim he is weighted to get even closer. She has a decent record when riding for Raising Sand’s trainer Jamie Osborne with 4 wins and 10 top 4 finishes from 28 rides.  A high draw has usually been a positive in this contest, with 7 of the last 10 winners starting from stall 21 or higher and Raising Sand will start from stall 35.

Good ground or better is fine for Raising Sand and underhoof conditions should pose no problems for this fella on Saturday. This will be his first start beyond a mile on grass and the son of Oasis Dream looks like he has been crying out for it. His half brother Alkaadhem was a multiple winner at 9/10f and his sire Oasis Dream has a more than decent record with runners at 7f-9f. I think Raising Sand is massively overpriced at 40/1 and he is the each way selection with 7 places available from Paddy Power.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 3.40 NEWMARKET-RAISING SAND E/W @ 40/1 7 PLACES.

Newmarket Friday Live ITV Races

We have a rare treat for a Friday this week with a quartet of quality contests due to be screened live on ITV4. It is Cambridgeshire weekend at Newmarket and on Day 2 there are four pattern level races for punters to get stuck into. The Listed Rosemary Stakes kicks off the action at 1.50pm and you will find my thoughts on that race and the other three live contests below.

Ellthea has some strong course form in the book behind Laurens.

Race 1

First up on Friday at HQ is the Listed Rosemary Stakes, a mile contest for fillies and mares aged 3yo and up. With no rain forecast it looks like the ground will be good or better. Even with her 3lb penalty, Unforgettable Filly looks the one to beat off a rating of 111 and Hugo Palmer’s 5yo daughter of Sepoy can currently be backed at odds of 11/4. She hosed up in a Listed race by 8L at Haydock last time out and if she repeats that she will take all the beating.

However, she can’t always be relied upon to produce her best, as her overall record of four wins from fourteen starts indicates. At a price, I think Ellthea could bounce back to form for Karl Burke and Tom Marquand. This 3yo filly was reportedly in season for most of last year, but she hit form with a vengeance in September, winning two on the bounce. She ran a huge race behind stable mate Laurens here in the Fillies’ Mile in October, beaten just over 4L (8f gd). If she can repeat that she could go well for each way backers at odds of 11/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ELLTHEA E/W @ 11/1 NAP

Race 2

Mia Tesoro is a horse that has been on my radar ever since I wrote an ante-post preview for the Oaks earlier this year. I was very impressed by her run behind Wuheida here over 9f (gd/fm) and I thought 12f would really suit. Charlie Fellowes swerved the Oaks and instead ran her in a Listed contest at Nottingham (10f) and Mia Tesoro relished the extra furlong, staying on strongly to get up close to home and score by half a length from Titi Makfi.

Mia Tesoro looks well worth a crack at this trip.

She didn’t run to form next time when upped in class to Group 3 company on the all weather over the same trip at Newcastle, beaten 6L. However, it was more like it at Sandown last time when she dropped back down into Listed company (10f gd). She stayed on well for 2nd behind Chain Of Daises for the runner up spot, shaping as though she would appreciate further. This daughter of Danehill Dancer will be ridden by Jim Crowley who has won 5/8 when riding for Fellowes. At odds of 20/1 she is worth chancing upped in trip to 12f for the first time in what looks an open Group 3.

  

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MIA TESORO E/W @ 20/1 NB

Race 3

The 7f Rockfel Stakes is a Group 2 race for 2yo fillies and I like the look of a maiden at a big price. Model Guest looks to be a well named filly because she has been a model of consistency this season. This beautifully bred daughter of Showcasing has only finished out of the frame once in five starts and she has improved with every run for George Margarson. She ran a stormer here on the July course in a Group 3 behind Main Edition, staying on well for 3rd, beaten just over 3L.

George Margarson could have a talented filly on his hands.

She was a shade unlucky not to get off the mark returned to novice company last time out, coming off worse when she bumped the winner close to home. I think the application of cheekpieces could make a big difference to Model Guest and the booking of Jamie Spencer suggests she will be ridden cold and produced late. Spencer is underrated when riding from the front too though, so maybe she will be ridden forward. Whatever tactics are employed I think this filly will prove to be better than her current rating of 93 and at 22/1 she is the each way pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MODEL GUEST E/W @ 22/1

Race 4

Only five horses go to post for the Group 2 Joel Stakes, a mile contest for colts and geldings aged 3yo and up. Our old friend Accidental Agent should be more at home back on quicker ground and dropped in class after a poor effort on good to soft in France.

On a line through Lord Glitters he has very little to find with the favourite Mustashry but with such a small field this race could get tactical and conceding weight to the others may put paid to Accidental Agent’s chances. Nothing appeals as being overpriced for this race and at the prices I will not be having a bet.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: NO BET

Goring Could Outrun Odds In Ayr Gold Cup

Adam’s Ale was a big disappointment earlier in the Bronze Cup. He broke well and got a good early position, but when push came to shove the tank was empty and he faded into 18th. Interestingly, the first four home in the Bronze Cup were drawn 16, 23, 25 and 20 so if that race is anything to go by, a high draw is a massive plus for the big one, the Ayr Gold Cup, and I like one at a monster price that will start from stall 22.
 

Goring goes well on soft ground and is well drawn.

Goring was a revelation over 8f on the all weather earlier this year, winning four races on the bounce at Lingfield. His winning streak started off a mark of just 83 and culminated with a superb effort in 3rd on All Weather Championships Day behind Lucky Team. He ended up with an all weather mark of 104 after his exploits, and he is rated 97 on turf.

His last two turf runs came in May and June and he was well beaten on both occasions at Chester over 7.5f (gd) and Royal Ascot (8f gd/fm). He hasn’t been seen since finishing well down the field at the Royal Meeting, but the 3 month break has to be viewed as a positive given his stellar record when running after breaks of 50 days or more.

This 6yo German bred son of Areion has career from figures of 31221 when fresh so that is why his mid-season break doesn’t put me off. He ran respectably on his only two outings on heavy ground and his last two turf wins came on soft ground over 6f and 7f at Chepstow so he clearly appreciates a bit of cut. He also ran well in the Bronze Cup back in 2016 when 5th on good to soft so he has course form in the book.

Ed Greatrex has been booked for the ride and he has a win and a third from three rides on this fella. He has ridden 20 winners and had 51 top 4 finishes from just 140 rides for Eve Johnson-Houghton, a frame hitting strike rate of just over 50%. She has had a couple of winners in the last fortnight so clearly her string is in decent shape and though she also runs Ice Age here who is a much shorter price than Goring, I think he might prefer better ground. Goring will be much happier on the forecast ground and at odds of 50/1 he is the each way pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 3.50 AYR-GORING  E/W @ 50/1 (6 PLACES)

Adam Could Have His Supporters On The Ale At Ayr On Friday

Unfortunately Dark Crystal was a non runner earlier, and there is nothing quite as frustrating as tipping up one that doesn’t run. Hugh Taylor tipped her up this morning too and her price collapsed from 33/1 into 10/1 in some places. Maybe connections didn’t get on at the price they wanted, and to be honest if it was me I wouldn’t be too happy either!
 

Marjorie Fife won the Bronze Cup in 2016.

Tomorrow is Bronze Cup day at Ayr and I like the look of Adam’s Ale from stall 19 for Marjorie Fife and Faye McManomon, who claims what could be a crucial 7lb off the top weight. That will be a big help on testing going, conditions that Adam’s Ale thrives on. He loves to get his toe in and his last three wins have come on soft.

He absolutely bolted up on his seasonal return off 78 back in April for Barry McHugh, winning easily by almost 4L at Ripon (6f sft). He also won first time out in 2017 at Haydock over 6f on soft, so clearly he is a horse that is at his best when fresh these days. His trainer suggested as much after his Redcar win, saying “Adam's Ale won first time up at Haydock last year and is best caught when fresh. He takes his racing well, but we'll be in no rush to get him back out”.

However, she wasn’t true to her word and Adam’s Ale reappeared a month later in early May and was well beaten on good ground back at Ripon. He hasn’t been seen since and I reckon that this race has been the plan ever since. He ran a cracker in The Bronze Cup as a 6yo back in 2015 on ground quicker than ideal, beaten 4L in 7th off 85 and with his jockey’s claim he is 7lb lower here and most importantly of all, he will get his favoured ground.

His draw in stall 19 is far from a disaster and hopefully this prominent racer breaks well and travels as strongly as he did at Ripon and Haydock for his last two wins. Marjorie Fife hasn’t had a winner in the past fortnight, but she has had a 2nd and a 3rd from her last two runners so her string is showing signs of coming to hand. If Adam’s Ale is in the same form as he was at Ripon, I think he is capable of putting up a bold show at odds of 25/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 4.10 AYR-ADAM’S ALE  E/W @ 25/1 5 Places Ladbrokes

Crystal An Interesting Dark Horse At Ayr

I think we had a more than decent Champions Weekend, returning a tasty profit with a couple of winners and places and a nice reverse forecast. For me, the two standout performers were Madhmoon and Skitter Scatter, while both Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior get honourable mentions too. Also, Study Of Man got very buzzed up in the preliminaries so don’t lose the faith as he is a better horse than he showed at Leopardstown.
 

Dark Crystal loves soft ground and goes well at Ayr.

The Ayr Gold Cup festival starts on Thursday and hopefully we get to see more racing than we did last year. The ground is currently described as soft at the Scottish track and one horse that looks sure to relish the conditions is Dark Crystal. This horse is no stranger to success at Ayr and either is her trainer, and at very nice odds I think a big run could be on the cards.

This 7yo daughter of Multiplex loves to get her toe in, and while she has won once on quick ground she is undoubtedly a better mare on softer ground. She has won nine races in her time and six of her victories have come at Ayr over 7f/8f on soft or good to soft ground. Her last triumph came in June of last year on soft over 7f off a mark of 67 with Lewis Edmunds claiming 5lb and she is now rated 65. With Ben Robinson claiming 3lb she is effectively off the same mark now so she is weighted to be competitive.

The reason that Dark Crystal is such a big price is because her two runs this season have been the worst of her career. She finished last on both occasions over a mile on good ground here and at Musselburgh and she was beaten a combined total of 61L. However, I reckon those two runs were designed to have her fit for this festival, and the booking of Ben Robinson suggests that Perratt means business.

He has a fine record when riding for Linda Perratt with two wins and a 2nd from just four rides, including a win for these owners. Stakes should be kept small with this one, because it is impossible to get away from the fact that Dark Crystal ran so poorly on both her appearances this season. However, Linda Perratt is a shrewd operator and back on soft ground at a track she loves, I think Dark Crystal has to be worth chancing each way at 25/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 2.30 AYR-DARK CRYSTAL E/W @ 25/1

Irish Champions Weekend Preview And Tips-Day 2 Curragh

Race 1

The eyes of the racing world will be firmly focused on the Curragh this Sunday and what a race the opener is! The Bold Lad, a 6f Premier Handicap worth a cool 150k gets the action underway and with 27 horses going to post, the winner will need lady luck to shine on them. I will be cheering on Mokhalad of course, but he looks to have his work cut out from out of the handicap. Hopefully Rory Cleary can work his magic and if he finished in the first half of the field it would be unbelievable. Fingers crossed he runs well and comes home safe.
 

Dark Shot has a big pot in him and he looks overpriced.

The one I like here for each way purposes is Dark Shot for Scott Dixon and Kieran O’Neill. This likeable but frustrating son of Acclamation has run some absolute crackers in defeat this season. He wasn’t beaten far in the consolation race for the Steward’s Cup at Goodwood off 88 and he was poorly drawn on ground plenty quick enough for him on his last visit to the Curragh. He has a much better draw for this, he will love the ground and at 20/1 I think he could surprise with a big run.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DARK SHOT E/W @ 20/1 NB

Race 2

The Group 2 Blandford Stakes for 3yo+ fillies and mares is the second race of the day at The Curragh and it is no surprise that Eziyra is odds on for this 10f contest. She finished a gallant 3rd behind Arc fancy Sea Of Class in a bid for the four timer at York after a hat trick of Group 3 wins. She is the highest rated, she has the form in the book and she is definitely the one they all have to beat.
 

Rionach is a well bred filly with a future.

However, she is dropping back in trip which is a slight worry and I am taking a chance on a filly who is moving in the opposite direction. Rionach, a beautifully bred 3yo filly by Sea The Stars is only rated 95, but she ran a lovely race on her first try in Listed company last time at Killarney (8f gd) and she shaped as though she would benefit for a step up in trip. Her pedigree suggests that further will suit too, and at odds of 28/1 she looks worth a small interest each way for in form trainer Michael O’Callaghan.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: RIONACH E/W @ 28/1

Race 3

The Flying Five Stakes is probably one of the weaker Group 1s that will be run on Champions Weekend. On official ratings there should be nothing between the top four in the market, but on good to yielding ground that is likely to dry out given the weather forecast I think Hit The Bid is the one to be on after a cracking effort behind Blue Uluru when giving that horse 7lb.

He has no such concessions to make on Sunday and the apple of Darren Bunyan’s eye has some strong course form in the book. He was a fine winner of a Group 3 here as a 2yo in 2016 and he wasn’t beaten far in a Group 2 behind Caspian Prince last July. Leigh Roche gets on very well with this striking son of Exceed And Excel, and at odds of 5/1 he looks the value in this trappy Group 1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: HIT THE BID WIN @ 5/1

Race 4

The Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes is a 7f Group 1 race for 2yo fillies and a total of ten will go to post. I have been extremely impressed by Skitter Scatter on her last two starts, and with the weather in her favour I think she is the one to beat here. The daughter of Scat Daddy has been a model of consistency in six runs so far this season, and she took the step up into Group 2 company in her stride last time over this course and distance.
 

Skitter Scatter has been a superstar for connections this season.

She travelled ever so well for Ronan Whelan in the Debutante Stakes 3 weeks ago, and when Whelan pressed the button she put the race to bed immediately. This filly has a lovely pedigree, out of a half sister to Dewhurst winner Intense Focus. I think Skitter Scatter looks overpriced at 5/1 with drying conditions firmly in her favour and she is my NAP of the day.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SKITTER SCATTER WIN @ 5/1 NAP

Race 5

The National Stakes, yet another Group 1, is run over 7f and seven horses will go to post. If there was eight runners I would probably chance Land Force each way, but this essentially looks to be a match between the two market leaders and I won’t be having a bet on this one.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: NO BET.

Race 6

The Irish St Leger has yet again attracted a small field, and with the substantial prize money on offer it baffles me that more trainers don’t target the minor placings. The O’Briens supply four of the six runners, Joseph with one and Aidan with three. This race doesn’t appeal to me as a betting proposition so I will be leaving it alone. No bet.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: NO BET

Race 7

This sales race for 2yos has not been kind to favourite backers with three of the last four winners returning at odds of 12/1 or bigger. An each way interest on one at juicy odds is the way forward in races of this nature and the one that stands out to me at a big price is Dadoozdart for Noel Meade and Billy Lee. He has to prove he handles good ground, but given that he is by Dawn Approach I think there is every chance he will go on it.

This son of Dawn Approach was an impressive winner on debut back in April at Navan on bad ground and he made a pleasing return to action last time at Roscommon on soft over 7.5f. He was entitled to need that run, and if he can get back to the form of his Navan victory when he had subsequent Group 2 winner Land Force well behind he is capable of outrunning his very generous odds of 33/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DADOOZDART E/W @ 33/1

Race 8

Another big field of nineteen will contest this 10f Premier Handicap and at massive odds I think Donagh O’Connor’s 5lb claim could be a big help to Ger Lyons’ likeable 8yo son of Kheleyf, Tennessee Wildcat. This gelding ran a couple of really nice races in handicaps recently at Leopardstown (off 98) when beaten 3.5L and then at Dundalk off 2lb lower when 3rd beaten less than 2L.
 

Donagh O'Connor could be a shrewd booking for Tennessee Wildcat. 

He won a 9f conditions contest last time at Tipperary by a head and thankfully the handicapper has left his mark alone. With Donagh O’Connor taking off 5lb he is effectively off a mark of 91 on Sunday and O’Connor is worth every ounce of his claim. The last time he raced off 90 in a handicap at Dundalk he won, and off just a pound higher now and with underfoot conditions ideal he could go well at 33/1 for each way players.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: TENNESSEE WILDCAT E/W @ 33/1

Irish Champions Weekend Preview And Tips-Day 1 Leopardstown

Charlie Stout ran like he was on the stout all weekend at Listowel, prominent for a long way before fading badly in the closing stages. Perhaps he wasn’t quite as fit as connections thought, as he was fairly well backed from 33/1 into 16s at the off. He is not one to write off just yet, and he is capable of doing damage off his current rating later on in the season, most likely when he gets very testing ground.

Saturday is Day 1 of Champions Weekend at Leopardstown and as ever, it is a card that oozes quality. There is a Listed heat, two Premier Handicaps, a Group 3, two Group 2s and the highlights are the Group 1 Matron Stakes and Irish Champion Stakes. Aidan O’Brien spearheads the home challenge, but there are plenty of foreign raiders trying to plunder some of the prize money. You can read my thoughts on Day 1 of Irish Champions Weekend at Leopardstown below.

Race 1

The Ingabelle Stakes kicks off the action at 3.20 at Leopardstown on Saturday, a tricky looking Listed head for 2yo fillies that have yet to place at Group level or win a Listed race. Some unexposed types go to post in this race and the one I like at a nice price is Black Magic Woman. I was at Dundalk when she broke her duck in a 7f maiden last time out, and the form has worked out very nicely. The runner up scored next time out and the 4th home won a decent Navan nursery off 78 on his next start.
 

Jack Davison could have an exiting prospect in Black Magic Woman.

Black Magic Woman had previously shown a lot of promise on debut in a Curragh maiden (7f gd/fm), slowly away and staying on eye-catchingly, despite meeting trouble in running, to finish 6th. She has a lovely pedigree, by Camacho and a half sister to the highly thought of London Icon. I was very impressed by the manner of her 3L win at Dundalk, and afterwards Davison described her as an exciting filly. If she hailed from a bigger yard there is no way she would be 20/1, and at that price Black Magic Woman has to be worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: BLACK MAGIC WOMAN E/W @ 20/1 NB

Race 2

With a total prize fund of 150k and with 88k going to the winner, it is no surprise that 18 horses will go to post for this 13f Premier Handicap. Five of those horses are trained by Willie Mullins, and four of them are priced up at single figure odds, Low Sun the exception at 33/1. Mullins won this last year for the second time in six years, and it would be no surprise if he landed it again. Picking which one of his is the most likely winner is another matter!

However, at a much bigger price I think The Mouse Doctor could be worth chancing each way at fancy odds. He was no match for Astronomer last time over 12f at Bellewstown (gd/fm) but he is 21lb better off with that rival, who he was 4L behind, and the extra furlong here will suit. He was in the wilderness for some time, but he has returned to form in a big way and he won over course and distance on his penultimate start. Danny Sheehy claims 5lb, he starts from stall 1 and he was placed last year off marks in the mid 80s. He is off 74 here with Sheehy’s claim and at 25/1 he looks a lively outsider.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: THE MOUSE DOCTOR E/W @ 25/1

Race 3

The first group race on the card at Leopardstown is the Group 2 Champions Juvenile Stakes and while I never enjoy tipping up short priced favourites, I think Madhmoon could put on a spectacular performance in this 8f contest. Kevin Prendergast’s son of Dawn Approach looked a special sort when slamming Sydney Opera House here on his debut a month ago (8f gd/fm) and barring a deluge it is hard to see the O’Brien horse turning the form around.
 

Madhmoon looks like he could be a bit special.

Kevin Prendergast is never one to sing and dance about his horses, but he was enthusiastic about this colt after his win. He said “We've always thought he was a nice horse. You are always afraid of Aidan's but we thought he'd have to be something special to beat our fella today….He'll keep me getting out of bed early over the winter”. He can currently be backed at 13/8 and he is going to be very hard to beat.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MADHMOON WIN @ 13/8

Race 4

This 12f Group 3 has attracted just seven horses so it doesn’t appeal as a contest for each way bets. Nothing appeals as being particularly overpriced, so it is a race I will be leaving alone. No Bet.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: NO BET

Race 5

The first Group 1 on Champions Weekend is the Matron Stakes, a mile race that has attracted a field of seven 3yo fillies. The one that stands out like a sore thumb is Alpha Centauri, a brilliant daughter of Mastercraftsman who has won four Group 1s on the trot with consummate ease. She is undoubtedly the best miler around right now and the form of her last win at Deauville was given a massive boost by Recoletos at the weekend. Jessie Harrrington’s stable star looks impossible to oppose.
 

Alpha Centauri will be tough to beat if at her best.

The one for the forecast could be Laurens, who returns to what could turn out to be her optimum trip. She flopped last time in the Yorkshire Oaks but she can be forgiven that run over 12f. She has form figures of 112 at a mile, and the two wins came at Group 2 and Group 1 level. Karl Burke has his string in magnificent shape at the minute, and if for some reason Alpha Centauri isn’t at her best then Laurens could be the one to take advantage.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ALPHA CENTAURI/LAURENS REVERSE FORECAST

Race 6

The sixth race on the card is the 8f Group 2 Boomerang Stakes, and this is a race I keep coming back to….yes, I am here all week! But in all seriousness, I think Zihba looks well overpriced back at the scene of his impressive Group 3 win in May. The form of that race has worked out extremely well, with two subsequent Group 3 winners filling the places and Gordon Lord Byron back in 5th.

Zihba was purchased by Al Shaqab after that win but he disappointed when sent off at just 8/1 for the Irish Guineas. The son of Choisir was given a near three month break after that race, and he was entitled to need his comeback behind Pincheck here a month ago. That should have put him spot on for a crack at this contest and at odds of 16/1 he could surprise with a big performance.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ZIHBA E/W @ 16/1

Race 7

The penultimate race on the card on Saturday is the Irish Champion Stakes, and this is a contest I have been really looking forward to. Roaring Lion is odds on after his decisive 3L win in the Juddmonte when Saxon Warrior was 5L behind. However, the O’Brien yard was out of sorts at that time and I think the Coral Eclipse is the race those two should be judged on. There was nothing in it between them that day, but I think Oisin Murphy and Roaring Lion were lucky to keep the race after a lengthy stewards enquiry and at the prices, I much prefer Saxon Warrior.
 

Study Of Man looks a huge threat in the Champion Stakes.

However, my fancy for this race is French Derby winner Study Of Man. This imperially bred son of Deep Impact has been on my radar for some time, and he was my ante-post fancy for the Epsom Derby. He justified his trainer’s decision to swerve The Derby and stay at home for the French equivalent. Study Of Man showed great battling qualities that day on ground that was probably softer than ideal, and I cannot wait to see him back on a quicker surface. I think he has the turn of foot to be a serious contender, and you can put a line through his last run in a race that wasn't run to suit. At odds of 6/1 he is my NAP of the day.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: STUDY OF MAN WIN @ 6/1 NAP

Race 8

The final race of Champions Weekend Day 1 at Leopardstown is the Sovereign Path, a 7f Premier Handicap for horses aged 3yo and up. The draw is crucial over 7f in big fields at Leopardstown and a wide starting berth is a huge negative. I like one at juicy odds here from a decent draw in stall 7, and I think Danielsflyer looks well overpriced off a mark of 91 with Oisin Orr claiming a valuable 3lb.

Orr was on board when Danielsflyer was beaten a neck off 92 at the Galway Festival (7f yld) but quicker ground will be no problem to this son of Dandy Man. He won a good handicap off 93 at Newmarket in May of last year on good to firm and he has won on good to soft, so all ground seems to come alike to him. He was far from disgraced last time at Goodwood when 6th of 17 and at odds of 25/1 he could go well for David Barron.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DANIELSFLYER E/W @ 25/1

The Pentagon Looks Overpriced For The St Leger

Regular readers of the blog may remember me tipping up The Pentagon for the Irish Derby at a big price. The Racing Post analysis of his run stated: “The Pentagon was ridden to come home well, that he did and he did all of his best work in the last furlong. He was ridden like a non-stayer.” I had to laugh when I read that because he was ridden like a non-something alright (begins with T), and he finished like an out and out stayer.
 

The Pentagon looks overpriced for the St Leger.

It is easy to forget that before the season started, The Pentagon was the ante-post favourite for the Epsom Derby and given his form as a two year old, that is no surprise. After he won the Group 3 Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown his trainer stated “He looks like a horse who will stay well and I imagine he'll be very much a middle-distance horse for next year” and he followed that up with a cracking effort at Doncaster in the Racing Post Trophy.

He could only manage 3rd that day under Seamie Heffernan behind Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion, but he didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs and he was closing on the first two all the way to the line. That effort came on good to soft, and looking at the weather forecast he could encounter very similar conditions on Saturday. The less rain the better for The Pentagon, and if it dries out it will suit him even more.

In my opinion, I think The Pentagon was earmarked as an ideal St Leger horse after that Doncaster run and Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion haven’t exactly done the form much harm in the meantime. However, that Irish Derby run sticks out like a sore thumb and given that there was a bug in the yard afterwards, he was entitled to need his perfectly respectable run at York behind Old Persian and Kew Gardens last time out.

That run should have put him cherry ripe for the St Leger and though he is 4lb worse off with Kew Gardens, I think the return to Doncaster and step up to 14.5f will help him to turn the form around. He also had Old Persian in behind at The Curragh in the Irish Derby, yet Charlie Appleby’s colt is just 13/2 here. The Pentagon can currently be backed at 28/1 for the St Leger and as long as conditions aren’t too testing, he is capable of running a huge race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 2018 ST LEGER-THE PENTAGON E/W @ 28/1

Charlie Looks A Crazy Price At Listowel

One of the biggest pitfalls of tipping up horses at big prices is trying to judge if a horse will be going all out for victory. Bay Of Freedom was one selection that I was sure would be doing his best, but it looked to me as if he was there for the day out. He never tried to get to a similar position as when he was 3rd in 2017 and from an early stage it was apparent he had no chance. Put him in your tracker and watch out for when the blinkers are removed because he is a better horse than he showed today.
 

Charlie Stout has been underestimated by the bookies. 

I am sticking to Listowel for Thursday’s fancy, and I think Charlie Stout is an absolutely huge price in the two mile handicap hurdle at 5.25. Shane Nolan’s 7yo son of Spadoun has some very useful form under his belt at 16f on soft ground over timber, and he ran a cracker in 3rd at Fairyhouse behind Low Sun in a similar race to this on his last outing over hurdles off a mark of 126. He races off just a pound higher in this race.

He made an adequate return to action after a few months off on the level at Galway, finishing 7th of 17 in a 12f flat maiden on soft ground. He showed up well for a long way before fading late that day, and he should come on leaps and bounds with that outing under his belt. He ran a lovely race here last year over 20f after a couple of outings on the flat, finishing 2nd off 124 and he is just 3lb higher today.

His trainer, Shane Nolan, hasn’t had many runners at Listowel over jumps, just two in fact, but one finished 2nd and the other 4th. That suggests that he doesn’t make the long journey from Clane unless he thinks he has one with a live chance and given his fine run here last year I think Nolan may well have earmarked this race as an early season target for Charlie Stout.

As always in races of this nature, a degree of luck is required, especially at a tight track like Listowel. Charlie Stout is a horse that can be held up, but one of his best runs came when ridden prominently at Down Royal (16f sft) in November 2017 when he was beaten narrowly by Top Of The Ra off 126 getting 3lb. Top Of The Ra has since won off 137, so it was a great run and if similar tactics are employed at Listowel I can see Charlie Stout outrunning his odds of 33/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 5.25 LISTOWEL-CHARLIE STOUT E/W @ 33/1

Bay Can Make Bold Bid For Kerry National At Listowel

I think the less that is said about Beach Wedding, the better. In hindsight, I am not sure she wanted all the rain that fell, even if her maiden and handicap wins suggested she handled soft ground. However, her two fine efforts in pattern company came on a sounder surface and it looked to me like she got stuck in the mud on Monday. I still think she is a promising filly and she should be capable of picking up some black type when she gets back onto better ground.
 

Bay Of Freedom loves it at Listowel.

The big race in Ireland on Wednesday is the Kerry National and it looks as though a maximum field of 18 horses will go to post for this valuable 3 mile handicap chase. The likes of Blazer, Snow Falcon and Jury Duty are currently at the head of the market, but at a much bigger price I think Bay Of Freedom is capable of running a massive race for shrewd handler Peter Fahey and Jonathan Burke.

This 9yo son of Heron Island was a no show over hurdles on his return from a break at Wexford last time, but that was probably just a run to blow away the cobwebs. He is likely to have been targeted at this contest since running a massive race in it last season when a fine 3rd off a mark of 133, beaten less than 2L. The ground was heavy that day and he is likely to encounter similar conditions for his repeat bid off just 3lb higher.

Bay Of Freedom seems to come alive when he heads to Listowel, and he has career form figures of 313 at the County Kerry track. The booking of Jonathan Burke catches the eye and he has 4 winners and 17 top 4 finishes from 53 rides for Peter Fahey. Kildare based Fahey has his string in fine fettle, sending out two winners in the past fortnight, and if the first time blinkers sharpen Bay Of Freedom up he can run a massive race at odds of 20/1 with 5 places each way available with some firms.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: 4.20 LISTOWEL-BAY OF FREEDOM E/W @ 20/1 5 PLACES

Beach Could Succeed In Bid For Black Type At Listowel

It was a tough day on Saturday for a couple of reasons. Compton’s Finale ran another cracking race at Navan, but he just came up short in 3rd. He has a great temperament and he obviously has ability, so hopefully his turn comes soon. His form so far looks rock solid. Donjuan Triumphant ran a massive race for us in the Sprint Cup, but he stayed on too late and could only manage 4th. It is always a heartbreaker when an each way bet at a big price finishes one place out of the money, but at least he was thereabouts.
 

Rory Cleary usually gets a good tune out of Beach Wedding.

The Listowel Harvest Festival started on Sunday with a National Hunt card but I didn’t have a bet. It is a full card of flat action on Monday and I like the look of one at a massive price in the 9f Listed race at 3.20. Beach Wedding, a 3yo daughter of Footstepsinthesand, has improved massively this season and I am amazed that she can be backed at odds of 50/1 with a couple of firms. She has been far from disgraced on her last two appearances in pattern company and she hasn’t got a whole lot to find with the principals.

This filly won two handicaps on the bounce earlier this season, off 79 at Gowran on soft/heavy over a mile and then on good to firm off 82 at Leopardstown over two furlongs further. Her next couple of starts in handicap company weren’t so good, but she was given a 6 week break after the first of those, and it may well have been that she needed the second one from a fitness perspective at Galway on her return.

Johnny Murtagh wasted no time in stepping Beach Wedding up in class and she was far from disgraced when 5th at 40/1 in a Listed heat at Gowran (9.5f gd/fm). She was only 3.75L behind the winner Snowy Winter and Hence, who was beaten a nose in 2nd. Curly was 1.5L in front of Beach Wedding in 4th and considering that Beach Wedding was badly hampered at the furlong pole, she theoretically could have finished a lot closer to both those horses.

She closed the gap to Hence to just over 2L on her next outing in a Group 3 at the Curragh (9f gd/yld) and she was only half a length behind Snowy Winter. Once again Rory Cleary had to switch a couple of times between the 2f and 1f poles and it looked to me like she finished with something in the tank. Her trainer must think so too and I don’t blame him for persisting with her at this level as she is certainly talented enough to pick up some black type.

Beach Wedding has 2L to find with Hence and less to find with Curly, yet those two horses are priced up at just 9/2 and 7/1 respectively. Over this trip the draw isn’t massively important at Listowel, so I am not too worried about her starting position in stall 10. Johnny Murtagh has been having an excellent season and he continues in fine form. He has had three winners in the last fortnight and Rory Cleary is riding with confidence too. He gets on well with this filly and at odds of 50/1 I think she is well worth chancing each way for small stakes.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 3.20 LISTOWEL-BEACH WEDDING E/W @ 50/1

Donjuan Looks A Handsome Price In The Sprint Cup At Haydock

Unfortunately it wasn’t to be for Havana Magic for us at Lingfield earlier this week. She broke well enough but she pulled hard early on and she eventually faded in the closing stages. I still think she is a filly to keep a close eye on, particularly when she is stepped up further in distance. I think she is capable of winning a race off her current rating, she just might need a bit more time.
 

Donjuan Triumphant winning at Haydock last season.

Tomorrow is Sprint Cup day at Haydock, a race that has been won by some superb racehorses on the past. The likes of Quiet Reflection, Regal Parade, Society Rock and Dream Ahead have won this race in recent years, and Harry Angel added his name to the list last season. He is going to go off a short price to defend his crown, especially now the rain has arrived, but I like one at a much bigger odds who will also be delighted with underfoot conditions.

Donjuan Triumphant hails from the in form Andrew Balding yard and this 5yo is a son of previous winner Dream Ahead. Just like his old man, Donjuan Triumphant loves to get his toe in and it would be no surprise if the rain came as a result of connections doing a rain dance. He is a serious tool when conditions are right, and he has a superb record at Haydock.

He has career form figures of 22011 at the Merseyside venue and his last two wins have come here on heavy and on good to soft. Okay, he was well beaten in this race two years ago as a 3yo but he is a couple of years older now and he is a much stronger horse. Plenty of sprinters improve as they get older, especially horses that relish heavy ground.

Donjuan Triumphant has been campaigned exclusively at 7f so far this season, and the sole occasion he got heavy ground he was beaten just a neck in a Listed race at Leicester. He ran a blinder on ground plenty quick enough for him behind Sir Dancealot at Goodwood in a Group 2 on his penultimate start, and you can put a line through his last effort on rattling quick ground behind Expert Eye at York.

Andrew Balding’s charge is versatile tactically, as he can go on or, as he did in his win at Haydock on heavy last year, he can be ridden patiently and produced late. Given Harry Angel’s racing style I think he will be held up on Saturday and Rob Hornby will try to produce him in the closing stages. Hornby has ridden Donjuan Triumphant once before, and he finished second on him.

The slower the ground tomorrow, the better it will be for Donjuan Triumphant and on the evidence of Friday’s action at Haydock, conditions look sure to be extremely taxing. I think the drop back to 6f on heavy ground in a strongly run race could be just what the doctor ordered for Donjuan Triumphant and at odds of 33/1 he looks worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 4.15 HAYDOCK-DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT  E/W @ 33/1

Step Up In Trip Could Do The Trick For Magic At Lingfield

My two Saturday selections ran nice races, but unfortunately only one of them reached the money. May Remain was trapped wide at Sandown, but he looked to be a serious challenger 2f out when Da Silva started pushing him along. However, Da Silva seemed to get a bit disorganised at an absolutely crucial time and by the time he sorted his hands out, it was game over.

Spiorad Saoirse was well backed and ran a cracker, travelling like the winner for a long way. The winner Kenya was obviously chucked in and Spiorad Saoirse paid the price late on for trying to beat him, fading into fourth. I think he could have finished second if he didn't try and win the race, but it didn’t really matter to us because we landed our each way bets at 33/1.
 

Charlie Bishop has an excellent record  on the all weather at Lingfield

There is plenty of action to get stuck into on Wednesday, and the one I like goes in the 10f handicap at Lingfield at 4.10. Havana Magic started slowly and never figured on her handicap debut when slowly away at Kempton, but it is still early days for this daughter of Havana Gold and she is worth giving another chance to on the form of her first two runs.

She ran a lovely race when fifth on debut in a hot maiden at Newmarket over 7f on debut. She was bumped at the start and got outpaced 3f out, but she kept to the task very well and the race has thrown up plenty of winners. She stayed on well again for 3rd upped to a mile at Windsor on her next outing, shaping as though she would improve for a step up in trip.

Her last run in Novice company over a mile back at Newmarket was a non-event, as was her handicap debut last time at Kempton off 62. However, she was very slowly away and her jockey seemed in no hurry to put her into the race at any stage last time out. She has been dropped 2lb to a mark of 60 after that tame effort and connections have wasted no time in dropping into a class 6 0-60.

That means that Havana Magic carries plenty of weight here, but Shaun Keightley hasn’t bothered booking a claimer so that could mean he fancies her to be competitive. She is bred to relish the step up to 10f on the dam side of her pedigree and her form suggests she will appreciate the extra distance too. Charlie Bishop has a brilliant record at Lingfield and at odds of 33/1 hopefully he enhances it on Havana Magic on Wednesday.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 4.10 LINGFIELD-HAVANA MAGIC  E/W @ 33/1