Charlie Stout ran like he was on the stout all weekend at Listowel, prominent for a long way before fading badly in the closing stages. Perhaps he wasn’t quite as fit as connections thought, as he was fairly well backed from 33/1 into 16s at the off. He is not one to write off just yet, and he is capable of doing damage off his current rating later on in the season, most likely when he gets very testing ground.
Saturday is Day 1 of Champions Weekend at Leopardstown and as ever, it is a card that oozes quality. There is a Listed heat, two Premier Handicaps, a Group 3, two Group 2s and the highlights are the Group 1 Matron Stakes and Irish Champion Stakes. Aidan O’Brien spearheads the home challenge, but there are plenty of foreign raiders trying to plunder some of the prize money. You can read my thoughts on Day 1 of Irish Champions Weekend at Leopardstown below.
Race 1
The Ingabelle Stakes kicks off the action at 3.20 at Leopardstown on Saturday, a tricky looking Listed head for 2yo fillies that have yet to place at Group level or win a Listed race. Some unexposed types go to post in this race and the one I like at a nice price is Black Magic Woman. I was at Dundalk when she broke her duck in a 7f maiden last time out, and the form has worked out very nicely. The runner up scored next time out and the 4th home won a decent Navan nursery off 78 on his next start.
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| Jack Davison could have an exiting prospect in Black Magic Woman. |
Black Magic Woman had previously shown a lot of promise on debut in a Curragh maiden (7f gd/fm), slowly away and staying on eye-catchingly, despite meeting trouble in running, to finish 6th. She has a lovely pedigree, by Camacho and a half sister to the highly thought of London Icon. I was very impressed by the manner of her 3L win at Dundalk, and afterwards Davison described her as an exciting filly. If she hailed from a bigger yard there is no way she would be 20/1, and at that price Black Magic Woman has to be worth chancing each way.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: BLACK MAGIC WOMAN E/W @ 20/1 NB
Race 2
With a total prize fund of 150k and with 88k going to the winner, it is no surprise that 18 horses will go to post for this 13f Premier Handicap. Five of those horses are trained by Willie Mullins, and four of them are priced up at single figure odds, Low Sun the exception at 33/1. Mullins won this last year for the second time in six years, and it would be no surprise if he landed it again. Picking which one of his is the most likely winner is another matter!
However, at a much bigger price I think The Mouse Doctor could be worth chancing each way at fancy odds. He was no match for Astronomer last time over 12f at Bellewstown (gd/fm) but he is 21lb better off with that rival, who he was 4L behind, and the extra furlong here will suit. He was in the wilderness for some time, but he has returned to form in a big way and he won over course and distance on his penultimate start. Danny Sheehy claims 5lb, he starts from stall 1 and he was placed last year off marks in the mid 80s. He is off 74 here with Sheehy’s claim and at 25/1 he looks a lively outsider.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: THE MOUSE DOCTOR E/W @ 25/1
Race 3
The first group race on the card at Leopardstown is the Group 2 Champions Juvenile Stakes and while I never enjoy tipping up short priced favourites, I think Madhmoon could put on a spectacular performance in this 8f contest. Kevin Prendergast’s son of Dawn Approach looked a special sort when slamming Sydney Opera House here on his debut a month ago (8f gd/fm) and barring a deluge it is hard to see the O’Brien horse turning the form around.
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| Madhmoon looks like he could be a bit special. |
Kevin Prendergast is never one to sing and dance about his horses, but he was enthusiastic about this colt after his win. He said “We've always thought he was a nice horse. You are always afraid of Aidan's but we thought he'd have to be something special to beat our fella today….He'll keep me getting out of bed early over the winter”. He can currently be backed at 13/8 and he is going to be very hard to beat.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: MADHMOON WIN @ 13/8
Race 4
This 12f Group 3 has attracted just seven horses so it doesn’t appeal as a contest for each way bets. Nothing appeals as being particularly overpriced, so it is a race I will be leaving alone. No Bet.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: NO BET
Race 5
The first Group 1 on Champions Weekend is the Matron Stakes, a mile race that has attracted a field of seven 3yo fillies. The one that stands out like a sore thumb is Alpha Centauri, a brilliant daughter of Mastercraftsman who has won four Group 1s on the trot with consummate ease. She is undoubtedly the best miler around right now and the form of her last win at Deauville was given a massive boost by Recoletos at the weekend. Jessie Harrrington’s stable star looks impossible to oppose.
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| Alpha Centauri will be tough to beat if at her best. |
The one for the forecast could be Laurens, who returns to what could turn out to be her optimum trip. She flopped last time in the Yorkshire Oaks but she can be forgiven that run over 12f. She has form figures of 112 at a mile, and the two wins came at Group 2 and Group 1 level. Karl Burke has his string in magnificent shape at the minute, and if for some reason Alpha Centauri isn’t at her best then Laurens could be the one to take advantage.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: ALPHA CENTAURI/LAURENS REVERSE FORECAST
Race 6
The sixth race on the card is the 8f Group 2 Boomerang Stakes, and this is a race I keep coming back to….yes, I am here all week! But in all seriousness, I think Zihba looks well overpriced back at the scene of his impressive Group 3 win in May. The form of that race has worked out extremely well, with two subsequent Group 3 winners filling the places and Gordon Lord Byron back in 5th.
Zihba was purchased by Al Shaqab after that win but he disappointed when sent off at just 8/1 for the Irish Guineas. The son of Choisir was given a near three month break after that race, and he was entitled to need his comeback behind Pincheck here a month ago. That should have put him spot on for a crack at this contest and at odds of 16/1 he could surprise with a big performance.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: ZIHBA E/W @ 16/1
Race 7
The penultimate race on the card on Saturday is the Irish Champion Stakes, and this is a contest I have been really looking forward to. Roaring Lion is odds on after his decisive 3L win in the Juddmonte when Saxon Warrior was 5L behind. However, the O’Brien yard was out of sorts at that time and I think the Coral Eclipse is the race those two should be judged on. There was nothing in it between them that day, but I think Oisin Murphy and Roaring Lion were lucky to keep the race after a lengthy stewards enquiry and at the prices, I much prefer Saxon Warrior.
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| Study Of Man looks a huge threat in the Champion Stakes. |
However, my fancy for this race is French Derby winner Study Of Man. This imperially bred son of Deep Impact has been on my radar for some time, and he was my ante-post fancy for the Epsom Derby. He justified his trainer’s decision to swerve The Derby and stay at home for the French equivalent. Study Of Man showed great battling qualities that day on ground that was probably softer than ideal, and I cannot wait to see him back on a quicker surface. I think he has the turn of foot to be a serious contender, and you can put a line through his last run in a race that wasn't run to suit. At odds of 6/1 he is my NAP of the day.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: STUDY OF MAN WIN @ 6/1 NAP
Race 8
The final race of Champions Weekend Day 1 at Leopardstown is the Sovereign Path, a 7f Premier Handicap for horses aged 3yo and up. The draw is crucial over 7f in big fields at Leopardstown and a wide starting berth is a huge negative. I like one at juicy odds here from a decent draw in stall 7, and I think Danielsflyer looks well overpriced off a mark of 91 with Oisin Orr claiming a valuable 3lb.
Orr was on board when Danielsflyer was beaten a neck off 92 at the Galway Festival (7f yld) but quicker ground will be no problem to this son of Dandy Man. He won a good handicap off 93 at Newmarket in May of last year on good to firm and he has won on good to soft, so all ground seems to come alike to him. He was far from disgraced last time at Goodwood when 6th of 17 and at odds of 25/1 he could go well for David Barron.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: DANIELSFLYER E/W @ 25/1
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