Charlie Looks A Crazy Price At Listowel

One of the biggest pitfalls of tipping up horses at big prices is trying to judge if a horse will be going all out for victory. Bay Of Freedom was one selection that I was sure would be doing his best, but it looked to me as if he was there for the day out. He never tried to get to a similar position as when he was 3rd in 2017 and from an early stage it was apparent he had no chance. Put him in your tracker and watch out for when the blinkers are removed because he is a better horse than he showed today.
 

Charlie Stout has been underestimated by the bookies. 

I am sticking to Listowel for Thursday’s fancy, and I think Charlie Stout is an absolutely huge price in the two mile handicap hurdle at 5.25. Shane Nolan’s 7yo son of Spadoun has some very useful form under his belt at 16f on soft ground over timber, and he ran a cracker in 3rd at Fairyhouse behind Low Sun in a similar race to this on his last outing over hurdles off a mark of 126. He races off just a pound higher in this race.

He made an adequate return to action after a few months off on the level at Galway, finishing 7th of 17 in a 12f flat maiden on soft ground. He showed up well for a long way before fading late that day, and he should come on leaps and bounds with that outing under his belt. He ran a lovely race here last year over 20f after a couple of outings on the flat, finishing 2nd off 124 and he is just 3lb higher today.

His trainer, Shane Nolan, hasn’t had many runners at Listowel over jumps, just two in fact, but one finished 2nd and the other 4th. That suggests that he doesn’t make the long journey from Clane unless he thinks he has one with a live chance and given his fine run here last year I think Nolan may well have earmarked this race as an early season target for Charlie Stout.

As always in races of this nature, a degree of luck is required, especially at a tight track like Listowel. Charlie Stout is a horse that can be held up, but one of his best runs came when ridden prominently at Down Royal (16f sft) in November 2017 when he was beaten narrowly by Top Of The Ra off 126 getting 3lb. Top Of The Ra has since won off 137, so it was a great run and if similar tactics are employed at Listowel I can see Charlie Stout outrunning his odds of 33/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 5.25 LISTOWEL-CHARLIE STOUT E/W @ 33/1