2026 Thyestes Chase Ante-Post Tip

This used to be a race in which smaller yards had a fighting chance of landing a big pot but these days, bigger yards mostly dominate. Yes, Martin Brassil won it in in 2022 but that was with Longhouse Poet for the Mulryans so it wasn’t really a ‘fairytale’ win. The last properly small trainer to take this prize was Liam Burke with My Murphy in 2016 and those that have been following me from the very start might remember backing him.

As a tipster who somewhat specialises in spotting horses with winning potential from so called lesser yards, the way Irish racing has gone in the last ten years has not made my job easy. For example, in last year’s renewal 14 of the 18 runners were trained by Mullins, Elliott, Cromwell and De Bromhead.

Big Four

This year, the big four are responsible for 23 of the 32 remaining entries and the chances are, one of them will win it. Flying the flag for the smaller operations is Terence O’Brien with Answer To Kayf. He landed the Troytown Chase on heavy ground at Navan in fine style back in November off 141 and if it comes up testing at Gowran on Thursday, he should go well again.

However, he’s only 10/1 and there isn’t much juice in those odds. Jordans is another interesting runner for Joseph O’Brien. We backed him in the Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown where he landed the place money for us in fifth but missed qualifying for the final at Cheltenham. He now reverts to fences and I think he is better than a 150 chaser, but I’m not sure the son of Coastal Path wants really soft ground.

Relish Conditions

One horse that looks certain to relish the likely testing conditions is Tom Gibney’s 2024 Irish Grand National hero Intense Raffles. Less than a year ago, on his last start at 3m plus on properly soft ground, Intense Raffles got to within 0.75l of Nick Rockett at Fairyhouse when conceding 3lb. That rival is now rated 169 after his Aintree heroics.

Three of Intense Raffle’s four runs since that excellent effort have come on good to soft ground and unsurprisingly, he hasn’t fared well. He pulled up at Aintree, was beaten 19l in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury and then pulled up in the Welsh National at Chepstow in December.

After those efforts, it is no surprise he is chalked up at 33/1 here but with rain forecast and the ground currently described as soft at Gowran, he should have his optimum conditions for the first time in almost a year.

Right-Handed

Another cause for optimism is that Tom Gibney’s charge is returning to a right-handed track. His career form figures at 3m plus on left-handed tracks read P8P. Going right-handed, he has amassed form figures of 112.

He admittedly remains 11lb higher than when winning the Irish National but that run at Fairyhouse last February suggests that he should be well capable of being competitive off his current rating of 151. Intense Raffles also likes to race close to the early pace, which is often a plus in this race and if he gets away well at the start and gets into a prominent position early, he can outrun his generous looking odds of 33/1.

2026 Thyestes Chase Ante-Post Tip: Intense Raffles e/w @ 33/1

-DaveStevos

Perratt’s Stable Star Worth A Poke At Newcastle

Unfortunately, we were narrowly denied a nice place with our NAP Ike Sport last weekend. There’s three days of live racing on ITV this weekend starting with the opening day of the Windsor Million meeting tomorrow (as well as All Weather Champs Trials at Newcastle). I’ll be covering the live ITV Saturday and Sunday cards for TXMarkets but I do like one horse at tasty odds that might be worth backing e/w at Newcastle tomorrow.

Linda Perratt is a trainer that I’ve followed for a long time. When I started focusing on finding big priced e/w bets she was one of the first trainers that came to my attention but she usually plies her trade at a much lower level than this.

Stable Star

She runs her stable star here, The Caltonian, and I think this horse is hugely overpriced at odds of 28/1. By Swiss Spirit, this 7yo was beaten just over 4l in this race last year, but he was running off a mark of 93. He is back to try again off 88, and the last time he ran off that mark over C&D, he won (Kieran O’Neill was on board that day too).

The Caltonian’s last two runs, both at this venue, have suggested his turn is near. He was beaten just 2l when not getting a clear run over C&D in November. He was 0.5l behind Heavenly Heather that day, conceding 11lbs. He gets 1lb from that rival here and yet he is 28s and Heavenly Heather is 14s.

The Caltonian finished sixth over 5f here last time, running on well late in the day. The step back up to 6f is a big plus, he’ll surely be trying his best and if he settles early and gets the gaps in the final furlong, The Caltonian can run into the money here at odds of 28/1.

2026 Newcastle Friday Tip: The Caltonian e/w @ 28/1 (4 places) NAP

-DaveStevos

2026 Cheltenham Ante-Post E/W Lucky 15

After all the exciting action over the Festive Season, I have set my sights on the Cheltenham Festival. I like the look of four horses at big odds e/w, get my 2026 Cheltenham ante-post e/w lucky 15 tips below.

Arkle Chase – Irish Panther e/w @ 20/1

I mentioned in my festive e/w lucky 15 preview that Irish Panther was one of my original selections but by the time of publication, he had shortened into single figure odds. Eddie Harty’s charge ran an absolute cracker after drifting back out to 12s and was narrowly denied by Romeo Coolio, currently around 8/1 for this race.

At Leopardstown, Irish Panther jumped and travelled supremely well, just like he did when winning on his chase debut at Naas. Clearly, he is a far better chaser than hurdler and only for a very slight stumble after jumping the last, I think he would have held on to beat the fast finishing Romeo Coolio.

Some might argue that he didn’t quite see out the trip and that the hill at Cheltenham will find him out stamina wise. I don’t buy that. I think he saw out the distance perfectly well and he finished over 12l ahead of a Grade 2 novice chase winner in July Flower.

Connections have already said that they are considering going straight to the Arkle, so barring injury, he should be a runner. I think odds of 20/1 are a bit of an insult considering how well he ran in Dublin and he is the first of our four 2026 Cheltenham ante-post selections.

Champion Chase – Solness e/w @ 25/1

Another horse that impressed at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting was Solness. We backed this horse when he won at 28/1 at last year’s meeting and he went on and followed up at the DRF in February. Unfortunately, he could only manage a poor fourth in this race last March, but he’s going to have a very different preparation this year.

When Solness finished down the field at Galway in July 2024, he was returning from a three-month break. Incredibly, he was kept on the go all through the autumn, the winter and then into the spring, running in the Champion Chase on what was effectively his ninth run on the spin without a break of 50 days or more. Surely, that played a part in his below par performance (and his lesser effort at Punchestown a month later).

This time, Solness has had a 292 day break and will likely have his third run of the season in the Champion Chase. He returned to action with a win at Leopardstown, holding off the late surge of Marine Nationale, who did really well to get so close after his early blunder.  You’d have to fancy Barry Connell’s charge to reverse that form but Solness finished over 3l clear of Majborough, an erratic jumper who is 7/1 for this, yet the sure footed Solness can be backed at 25s.

This race is almost certain to cut up considerably, and it would be no surprise if less than eight turned up in March. 25/1 about Solness with three places on offer sounds alright to me and he is our second 2026 Cheltenham ante-post selection.

Pertemps Handicap Hurdle – Electric Mason e/w @ 16/1

Our third selection is (yet) another horse we have backed this year. We were on Electric Mason at huge odds when he found just one too good in a qualifier for this race at Cheltenham on his seasonal reappearance. The horse that beat him, Ma Shantou, won again off 9lb higher at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.

Electric Mason rocked up to Haydock on his next start and we were on him again at 14s. Off a 4lb higher mark he went one place better, jumping well and holding off the late challenge of Hartington to score by a neck.

He got hit with a 7lb rise for that and afterwards, his trainer Chris Gordon stated all roads led to the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham in March. This horse goes well fresh so I concur with that plan and I think he has the potential to rate higher than his current mark of 139. Hopefully he gets there in one piece.

Gold Cup – I Am Maximus e/w @ 33/1

With Galopin Des Champs seemingly on the decline and the reigning champion Inothewayurthinkin bang out of sorts, this is the most open looking Gold Cup we’ve had for quite a while. Our Christmas winner Affordale Fury announced his arrival at the top table in the Savills but it is the horse who finished second behind him that I think could be set for a big run at Cheltenham in March.

I Am Maximus is a horse that owes us nothing. We were on ante-post at 25s when he won the 2024 Grand National and he pitched up in that race again last April and ran another cracker off a mark of 167, finding just Nick Rockett too good.

Lightly Raced

Many will point to this horse’s age as a negative. Yes, there is no denying he’s no spring chicken at the age of ten but since his Irish Grand National win in April 2023, he’s probably only run on his merits five times so he is a fresher horse than his age suggests.

My view is that connections have realised that he will struggle to win another National off his rating of 170 (no shame in that) and after a pipe opener in the John Durkan, they decided to unleash the beast in the Savills. He beat all comers bar Affordale Fury and over another furlong and a half (the Gold Cup Trip), he probably would have stayed on best to win.

His only previous run at Cheltenham came in the 2023 Brown Advisory (3m) and he got outpaced before staying on into fourth. I Am Maximus acts on any ground, an obvious plus when betting ante-post, and he was given an official entry today. At 33s, I think he is capable of a huge run.

2025 Navan & Cheltenham Sunday Preview

It was hard to find the motivation to pen this preview. Saturday’s selections all ran absolute stinkers again and confidence is at an all time low. Maybe it’s time I found a new profession… There will be no NAP or NB again on Sunday, keep stakes to a minimum until there are signs that things are turning around. My 2025 Navan & Cheltenham Sunday preview is below.

1.57 Navan – Tara Handicap Hurdle (130 = 11st 12lb)

First of all, I want to apologise in advance to the connections of my fancy in this valuable handicap hurdle, the locally trained Theflyingbee. Finbar Hand’s mare did me a favour by winning for the spotlights at Downpatrick in June. Running off a mark of 114, she relished the easy ground and scored by 1l in a 2m3f mares’ handicap hurdle.

The daughter of Morozov was hit with a 6lb rise for that victory and her two runs since came over an unsuitable trip on good ground at Bellewstown in June and in a Flat maiden at the Curragh later that month, again on unsuitable ground.

This mare has been freshened up since that Curragh run and I am hoping she returns in the same sort of form as she did after a similar break last December. After 93 days off she ran a cracker here (2m4f, yld-sft) off 115 to finish 6l behind the then 115 rated Glen Kiln. That horse is now rated 143 and is just 12/1 for the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle next weekend.

Theflyingbee pulled 4.75l clear of Boston Rover in third that day and that rival is now rated 134 over fences. Hand’s mare has had just two handicap runs on soft ground, returning form figures of 21, so she is relatively unexposed in these conditions and she will surely be trying her best on her home patch. At odds of 28/1, Theflyingbee is the each way selection.

2025 Navan & Cheltenham Sunday Tip: Theflyingbee e/w @ 28/1 (6 places)

2.32 Navan – Troytown Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

This is a speculative one but in the hope that the return to Navan and to testing ground sparks a revival, I’m going to throw a bit of loose change on Prince Palace at massive odds.

Pat Fahy’s charge likes it at this venue and he also likes soft ground. He’s run here on three previous occasions, returning form figures of 312. The win came on heavy over 2m4f but the two places came at today’s trip, including a fine third off 120 in a Listed handicap chase in March on soft.

His three runs since that excellent third have been nowhere near that level but they all came on right handed tracks. It looks to me like Fahy has targeted this race and even though Prince Palace is 7lb wrong, that is negated by his rider’s claim and it will be a big plus to be carrying such a feather weight on ground as testing as this.

At odds of 66/1, hopefully Prince Palace outruns his odds of 66/1 and sneaks into the first six.  

2025 Navan & Cheltenham Sunday Tip: Prince Palace e/w @ 66/1 (6 places)

3.30 Cheltenham – Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Premier)

I was tempted to leave Cheltenham alone because I am really starting to hate the place. However, it would be rude not to put something up for this 20 runner handicap and the one I’ll take a chance on is the Scottish raider, Dedicated Hero.

Sandy Thomson is a trainer I have a lot of respect for and when he gets a good one, like he did with Seeyouatmidnight, he knows how to campaign them. Unfortunately, he hasn’t had many good ones since his stable star retired but Dedicated Hero might be the horse that catapults him back into the big time.

He boasts form figures of 11113 at 2m-2m1f and the most recent of those wins came in a Grade 2 novice at Haydock back in January. Now, that admittedly wasn’t the strongest race but he finished 9.75l in front of the odds on favourite Royal Infantry and he ran a solid race in defeat here on Saturday off a mark of 138. Dedicated Hero gets in here off 129. 

Thomson’s charge made his handicap debut after 193 days off at Carlisle a fortnight ago, so he should be sharper for that run over a trip that stretches him. This horse has always been held in high regard, hopefully he proves connections right on Sunday at odds of 33/1.

2025 Navan & Cheltenham Sunday Tip: Dedicated Hero e/w @ 33/1 (6 places)

-DaveStevos

2025 Cheltenham Showcase Meeting Friday Tips

Our dreadful run came to an end on Champions Day. No winners, but we landed places with No Half Measures and Almaqam and we weren’t far off with Docklands and Bopedro. The jumpers now take centre stage, my 2025 Cheltenham Showcase Meeting Friday tips are below.

1.15 – William Hill Handicap Hudle (Class 3)

A nice and easy start with a 20-runner class 3 handicap hurdle. The ground is good to soft at the time of writing and with showers forecast, the track is unlikely to dry out too much.

John McConnell won this a couple of years ago with the veteran Seddon and last year Anna Bunina finished second for him. This year, his sole representative is Montecam, and he looks a bit overpriced to me at odds of 28/1.

Formerly trained by Nicky Henderson, for whom he won a Herford maiden hurdle (19.5f, gd-sft) in 2024, this son of Camelot produced his best effort to date for McConnell on his latest start at Bellewstown (20.5f, good).

Held up in midfield, he ran on well from the second last and found only the locally trained Birmingham Alabama too good. 5l back in fourth was Shadow Paddy, to whom Montecam was conceding 3lb, and he has since gone on to win a Listed handicap and a listed race at Limerick and is now rated 130.

With Alex Harvey’s claim, Montecam is effectively running off 119 here and he was only beaten around 2l off 118 when fourth over an inadequate trip at Newbury for Henderson in March so he has already proven he can be competitive off this sort of mark. At odds of 28/1, he is the each way selection.

2025 Cheltenham Showcase Meeting Friday Tip: Montecam e/w @ 28/1 (5 places)

1.50 – Holland Cooper Novices’ Chase (Class 2)

Only seven runners here but it’s an interesting little race that will be well worth watching with a view to the future. Gavin Cromwell has won the last two renewals so Addragoole has to be respected and Gordon Elliott’s promising pair King of Kingsfield and Relieved Of Duties are capable of running big races.

Olly Murphy’s horses have been in sparkling form so you couldn’t write off Alnilam (who beat Country Mile at Uttoxeter 19 days ago) and Paul Nicholls will be keen to make an early statement with Centara, a handicap chase winner off 131 at Newton Abbott last time out.

I’m not going to get involved here but if I were forced to have a bet, it would be on Alnilam simply because of the form of the yard. Hopefully it’s a cracking race and they all come home safe and sound.

2025 Cheltenham Showcase Meeting Friday Tip: No Bet

2.25 – Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)

Rather surprisingly, for a race of this nature, there has only been one double figure priced winner in the last ten years. That surely has to change at some point, right?

The horse that makes most appeal to me at bigger odds is the rag, Scintillante. This son of Roaring Lion was in fine form in class 4 company during the summer months. He won easily off 97 at Worcester (2m, good) in July and he went on to finish second off 105 and again off 108 at the same track in his next two starts.

Last time out he was pitched into a class 2 and ran a stinker, though he was 5lb out of the weights running off 117. He runs off 112 here (due to drop 1lb) and this is not as strong a race. On his penultimate start he was 0.5l behind An Bradan Feasa, who won again on his next start and his stablemate Mix Of Clover, who was 7l back in third, hacked up next time out too.

Another cause for optimism is the form of this yard. Alistair Ralph has had seven runners in the last fortnight and four of them won (one second). Ralph has never  had a winner at Cheltenham (0-30, four seconds), hopefully Scintillante runs a nice race for him here at odds of 33/1.

2025 Cheltenham Showcase Meeting Friday Tip: Scintillante e/w @ 33/1 (4 places)

3.00 – Oddschecker Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)

It’s great to see such a big field for this Grade 2 novice hurdle, even if there is a bit of dead wood in it. Un Sens A La Vie currently heads the market and he has looked an exciting prospect in winning his bumper by 3.5l and a maiden hurdle by 7.5l, both at Market Rasen.

However, his sole defeat came on his only start going left handed in a P2P so I’d urge caution if you are considering steaming in at skinny enough odds. Hopefully this is a good day for John McConnell because I am going to back another of his runners here.

Jackson Lamb is on a hat-trick after winning a maiden at Bellewstown (20.5f, good) and a Kelso novice (2m5f, good). A front runner, he drops back markedly in trip here so I would imagine the plan is to be aggressive on him out in front and turn this into a test of stamina rather than speed.

Now, there are a couple of other potential front-runners in here (Jack Hyde and Run For Mahler) so if they decide to set off lickety split in front, hopefully Alex Harvey is happy to let them set off and turn it into a stamina test. If you go back to his debut run in a bumper at Roscommon he stayed on well after being held up in midfield early on so it’ll be fascinating to see how things unfold tactically. Either way, at odds of 18/1, Jackson Lamb is the each way selection.

2025 Cheltenham Showcase Meeting Friday Tip: Jackson Lamb e/w @ 18/1

3.35 – Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Chester Williams has made a flawless start to his training career. Two runners (both ridden by Harry Cobden), two winners and he’ll be hoping to make it three from three with Uncle Phil in this 2m handicap chase.

It is hard to make a case for this horse on what he did in 2024 when with Willie Mullins but Haas Boy was similarly out of form for his former yard and he won on his first start for Williams after a 225 day absence.

Uncle Phil was last seen in November 2024 running down the field in a listed handicap chase at Fairyhouse. In January of that year he won a Grade 3 handicap over the same C&D off a mark of 139 and he is only 6lb higher here.

He has won over fences going left-handed too, so the track configuration is not a worry and he is effective on good and soft ground. Hopefully Williams has sweetened Uncle Phil up, if he has he may well recoup the 14,000gns he shelled out for him back in April in one fell swoop.

2025 Cheltenham Showcase Meeting Friday Tip: Uncle Phil e/w @ 14/1

-DaveStevos

2025 Champions Day E/W Lucky 15

Last weekend was another disaster. Killavia and Loz Vegas finished out the back of the TV, Saba Desert did likewise and the day was fittingly capped off with modest runs from Gweedore and Bashful Boy in the big handicaps. This is probably the worst run I’ve endured for the best part of two years, hopefully we can turn it around with this 2025 Champions Day E/W Lucky 15.

Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)

No prizes for guessing who I am backing here. Run To Freedom hasn’t won yet for us but he’s been placed for us at 28s, 40s and at 150s in this race in 2022 so he owes us nothing and I’d imagine he’ll be heading to stud after this race, win, lose or draw.

It looks like the ground is going to be decent at Ascot on Saturday and that’s a plus for this 7yo son of Muhaarar. It was good to soft when he ran second in this in 2022 and it was also good to soft when he chased home Shaquille in the July Cup in 2023. It was good to firm when he ran third in the July Cup this year, so once there is good in the ground description Henry Candy’s charge will be fine.

Run To Freedom has run well on plenty of occasions at Ascot so there are no concerns regarding the track. If he can reproduce the form he showed on his penultimate start at Newmarket, he is capable of making a mockery of his massive odds of 50/1.

2025 Champions Day E/W Lucky 15 Tip: Run To Freedom e/w @ 50/1

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)

In our Royal Ascot lucky 15 Docklands got us off to a perfect start in the Queen Anne at 25/1. My main angle for tipping him was his love for Ascot and his liking for quick ground and, if the weather forecast is correct, he is going to get his optimum conditions again here.

In the Queen Anne he beat Rosallion by a nose and it is important to remember that Mark Zahra dropped his whip a furlong out too that day. Since then, Docklands has run just twice and on his last start, in the Jacques le Marois, he ran a massive race to finish a close fourth behind Diego Velazquez, Notable Speech and Dancing Gemini.

He’s had a nice two month break to recover from those exertions and he is back at his beloved Ascot. I’d imagine this has long been the plan given his C&D form figures of 1132221, hopefully he can add another 1, 2 or 3 to that sequence on Saturday at odds of 14/1.

2025 Champions Day E/W Lucky 15 Tip: Docklands e/w @ 14/1

Champion Stakes (Group 1)

The value here surely lies with Ed Walker’s son of Lope De Vega, Almaqam. An ultra-consistent horse, he has had a fine campaign. The undoubtable highlight was his all the way win at Sandown (1m2f, good) in the Brigadier Gerard when he lowered the colours of Ombudsman, the 7/4 jolly here.

Now, to be fair to Ombudsman, he did lack a run whereas Almaqam had one under his belt but even so, he still beat him. Perhaps more patient tactics didn’t suit when Almaqam was beaten by Royal Champion in the York Stakes and it looked like he didn’t stay 1m4f when third at Longchamp last time.

The drop back to 1m2f is a huge plus for this horse and the ground should be ideal for him too. Walker has always said this race was the ultimate aim for this horse, fingers crossed he proves him right at odds of 12/1.

2025 Champions Day E/W Lucky 15 Tip: Almaqam e/w @ 12/1

Balmoral Handicap (Heritage)

Last year Michael Bell landed this valuable prize with Carrytheone. This year, he relies on his 5yo son of Kingman Greek Order and he is capable of running a massive race off a mark of 96.

Formerly trained in the US by William Mott (previous to that by Roger & Harry Charlton), this horse seems to act on any ground. As a 3yo he won on good and good to soft, he was placed in the Cambridgeshire on good to firm and then he ran third in a listed race on heavy.

Since returning to Britain, his best effort came on his first start for Bell in the Hunt Cup at the Royal Meeting. Ridden by Soumillon (who rode Carrytheone to victory here last year), Greek Order was beaten just 1.5l for the win in fourth off 95 and he again ran well at Sandown on his next start off a mark of 97.

He never landed a blow on his last two starts but I am hoping that this race has been the plan ever since that Hunt Cup effort. He’s only 1lb higher here and I am also hoping to see Soumillon jocked up when declarations are made on Thursday. At odds of 25/1, Greek Order is the each way selection.

2025 Champions Day E/W Lucky 15 Tip: Greek Order e/w @ 25/1

-DaveStevos

2025 Newmarket Friday Preview

Arc day saw us land just one place. I tipped the wrong Graffard horse in the big one, Ain’t Nobody was a length off a place in the Abbaye and my NAP Grand Stars probably should have won but a wide trip cost him a place. Onwards we go to HQ on Friday, my 2025 Newmarket Friday preview is below.

1.15 – Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3)

Brussels is the 5/4 favourite here for Ballydoyle. Runner up in the Middle Park last time out, he drops back to the minimum trip for the first time and he will most likely have enough pace to get the job done.

If you take him out of the race, it looks rather open and in the hope that they go a breakneck early gallop, I am going to take a chance on the Havana Grey filly, Palmeira. Zavateri has been the flagbearer for Eve Johnson-Houghton’s juvenile team this year but this filly has had a good season too and she has already picked up some black type.

That came on her penultimate start in a listed heat at Newbury when she was just touched off by Hollywood Treasure after not getting the smoothest of passages. Last time out she finished 4l behind Revival Power in a G2 at Donny.

The winner had the run of the race that day and if he gets taken on for the lead here (hopefully by Aspect Island) and goes too quick, Palmeira may be able to close that gap, stay on late and sneak a place at odds of 66/1.

2025 Newmarket Friday Tip: Palmeira e/w @ 66/1

1.50 – Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3)

This is a big step up from the conditions race she contested last time and she came up short in listed company on her second start at Sandown but even so, I don’t think Tavana should be as big as 25/1 here.

This Havana Grey filly has raced keenly in all three of her starts but it hasn’t stopped her from winning two of them. On debut, she was sent off at 28/1 at Haydock but she made a mockery of those odds to win decisively. She had Evolutionist (since fourth in a Curragh G2) and Isle Of Fernandez (since third in an Ayr G3) back in third and fourth so there is substance to that form.

At Sandown in that listed race it looked like she was ridden to get black type but she just had too much ground to make up. At Newbury last time she showed a willing attitude to get up to beat the 90 rated True Test and I think she is well worth another go in stakes company. If Georgia Dobie can time her challenge right, hopefully Tavana can nick some precious black type at odds of 25/1.

2025 Newmarket Friday Tip: Tavana e/w @ 25/1

2.57 – Fillies’ Mile (Group 1)

With the step up to a mile almost certain to suit, I’m going to take the market leaders on with the beautifully bred Cracksman filly, Moon Target. Trained by the inimitable Sir Mark Prescott, this filly finished just 0.75l behind Precise (15/8 here) on her first run in stakes company at Goodwood.

I think if that race was a furlong further, which this one is, she may have got the better of that rival. Her next run in the May Hill over 1m was admittedly disappointing but she may not have enjoyed the ease in the ground.

Prescott kept her at 7f for her next start in the Rockfel at this venue and again, she ran on well after getting outpaced, shaping like a mile would suit. Her dam, a half-sister to crack miler Inspiral, won at 9.5f and her half-sister won at 1m2f so everything points towards this step back up in trip bringing about more improvement. At odds of 12/1, Moon Target is the e/w selection.

2025 Newmarket Friday Tip: Moon Target e/w @ 12/1 NAP

3.30 – Old Rowley Cup Handicap (Heritage)

Maybe Ismael Mohammed’s C&D maiden winner Minhad can go well at a price here. By Universal, this 3yo has run four times since that C&D success. He was outclassed in a G2 at Ascot (1m4f) then probably didn’t handle soft ground in a Racing League handicap at Yarmouth.

Mohammed stuck blinkers on and dropped his charge back to 1m2f in a Newbury handicap next time and was rewarded with an improved performance. A visor was tried over 1m6f at Chester four weeks ago and he ran another fine race, not quite getting home but holding on for second.

This horse is unexposed in handicaps on good or quicker at this 1m4f trip and given how he has been campaigned, there is every chance this has been a long term plan. With his rider’s 5lb claim he’s effectively in off 76 here and the horse he beat by a head over C&D here is now rated 90. At odds of 22/1, back Minhad e/w.

2025 Newmarket Friday Tip: Minhad e/w @ 22/1 (4 places) NB

-DaveStevos 

2025 Prix de l’Arc De Triomphe Revisited

Unfortunately, our ante-post bet on Map Of Stars has fallen by the wayside. I was hoping he’d run a huge race in his final prep but he never figured after stumbling at the start and Graffard has decided he isn’t ready for the race this year.

Now that the final field is confirmed and the draw has been done, I am going to go in on another Graffard contender. I was tempted by Daryz who has been handed a lovely starting berth in stall 2 but he’s shortening up and at much tastier odds, I think Quisisana is a live contender.

This 5yo daughter of Le Havre has reportedly been hard to keep right. That explains why she has only run eight times in her career (won six of those starts) but Graffard has had a clear run with her this season and she has shown how good a racemare she is.

Hat Trick

She comes into this year’s Arc on the back of a hat-trick of wins at around 1m2f. It was a minor race she won on her reappearance at Compiegne (1m2f, vry soft) but she made short work of her rivals in a 1m2f Chantilly listed race on soft on her next start.

For her next start, Quisisana was pitched into G1 company for the first time in the Prix Romanet and again, she put a quality field to the sword, this time on better ground. The way she quickened to put daylight between herself and the rest of the field was impressive and the gap wasn’t closing as she hit the line strongly.

Unlike her stablemate Daryz, she has raced over 1m4f before and it resulted in a 5l Listed victory at Chantilly. Now, the one worry is the fact that Graffard has stated she is fragile so that has dissuaded me from making her a NAP bet. However, if she is 100% and at her best, Quisisana is more than capable of outrunning her odds of 33/1 from a decent draw in stall 7.

2025 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Tip: Quisisana e/w @ 33/1 (4 places W Hill)

-DaveStevos

2025 Champions Weekend Curragh Tips

We managed to nick a few places at Doncaster and Leopardstown on Saturday. Unfortunately, we didn’t get a winner and our NAP East Hampton ran a stinker but overall it wasn’t an awful day. I'm hoping to get a winner on the board on Sunday, 2025 Champions Weekend Curragh tips are below.

1.30 – Bold Lad Sprint Handicap (Premier)

We are already on Tango Flare at 25s for this race and he’s been on the drift. Given that he has been drawn low in stall 7, I am going to back another one from a higher draw just in case there is a track bias.

The horse that fits the bill from stall 17 is John James Feane’s mare, Greek Flower. Yes, she is 7lb wrong but the up-and-coming claimer Nicola Burns will offset most of that with her claim (possible 2lb overweight).

This daughter of Australia hasn’t won since landing a C&D handicap off 70 in October 2023 but she has run some crackers in defeat, including when forcing a dead heat for fifth in the Scurry here back in July. She has shaped well enough in both starts since in lesser races and I’d imagine the big pot on offer here might bring about an even better run.

She was only beaten 2.5l when denied a clear run in this race last year off 87 so she is more than capable off her mark of 83, even if she is out of the handicap. Fingers crossed Nicola Burns can chart a clear passage, if she does Greek Flower can go close at odds of 16/1.

2025 Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Greek Flower e/w @ 16/1 (6 places) NAP; Tango Flare already advised e/w @ 25/1 (4 places 1/4 odds)

2.05 – Tattersalls Super Auction Sales Stakes (2yo)

I always end up getting tempted by one at big odds in these sales races and they always run crap races. Not this time. No bet.

2025 Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: No Bet

2.40 – Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group 1)

Just seven runners and no extra places on offer. The bookies essentially make this a match, with Composing chalked up at 6/4 and the unbeaten Venetian Sun at 15/8. Given Karl Burke’s form on Saturday, I’d marginally side with his horse but I have no interest in betting on him at the prices. I’m happy to just watch and enjoy this race. No bet.

2025 Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: No bet

3.15 – Flying Five Stakes (Group 1)

We have a pretty good record in this race when it comes to getting places (Makarova 28s last year, Get Ahead 66s in 2023), hopefully we can find the winner in this year’s renewal.

The one that looks most overpriced, especially with rain forecast before racing tomorrow, is the 7yo mare Vadream. How can I tip up a sprinter that has been beaten a cumulative distance of over 50L on her last three starts I hear you ask? Well, she has had valid excuses for those runs (upset in stalls Haydock, ground Ascot, track Goodwood) and her run at Newmarket in May when just over 2l behind Frost At Dawn suggests that she still retains ability.

She ran poorly in this last year, but the ground was good. This time there should be a nice bit of an ease and she comes into the race a fresher horse than she was last year. If she can reproduce the form she showed when a 1.75l fourth in the Sprint Cup at Haydock a year ago she is capable of running on late into a place here, so a small e/w interest on Vadream is advised at odds of 66/1.

2025 Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Vadream e/w @ 66/1 (4 places)

3.50 – National Stakes (Group 1)

Another small field. I’d love to see Zavateri win this for Eve Johnson Houghton but odds of 11/2 aren’t big enough and you’d have to be concerned about the easy ground. No bet.

2025 Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: No Bet

4.25 – Irish St Leger (Group 1)

A field of nine are due to go to post for this 1m6f G1 and Al Riffa, Illinois and Amiloc are at the head of the market. Easy ground and the trip are an unknown for the latter horse so one of the bigger priced ones might be able to sneak into the money. The one that makes most appeal is the winner of the trial for this race, Leinster.

Al Riffa’s stablemate has been deserted by McMonagle but he’s had an excellent season and he took his form to a new level here last time when beating Dallas Star by over four lengths. His three previous runs this term came in handicaps, including a 1m4f win here on soft, a solid fourth in the Chester Cup and another fine fourth in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal Meeting.

Obviously, this represents a big step up in class but he has won his last two visits to this venue, he acts on soft ground and given that this is just his eighth start, there could still be more improvement to come from the son of Camelot. Billy Lee is 2/11 with three top 3s when riding for this owner, hopefully he can nick another place at least here at odds of 22/1.

2025 Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Leinster e/w @ 22/1

5.00 – Blandford Stakes (Group 2)

Now that she is back on an easier surface, perhaps Higher Leaves can hit the frame at a price in this 1m2f Group 2. Trained by Henry De Bromhead, this daughter of Golden Horn found G1 company too hot on her first two starts of 2025.

She ran a better race last time out when fifth in a C&D G3 on good to yielding behind One Look and, once the forecast rain comes, she may be able to close the gap to that rival on a softer surface.

Her last start on properly soft ground saw her bolt up in a Group 3 at Toulouse last November and she hit top form at this time last year. She sports a hood for the first time, which will hopefully help her to settle better and if the new equipment works, Higher Leaves can make a bold bid from the front at odds of 20/1.

2025 Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Higher Leaves e/w @ 20/1

5.35 – Northfields Handicap (Premier)

Crown Of Oaks has been backed off the boards for this and he looked like a horse going places when hacking up at Ascot last time out (1m2f, soft). He’s only 8lb higher here and if he avoids traffic problems in this huge field, he is likely going to be very hard to beat.

One horse that is capable of a big run off his current mark of 94 is Ado McGuinness’ 7yo Star Harbour. His last handicap win came at this venue over 1m4f in June 2024 off 96 on good ground but he is effective on easier ground too.

Star Harbour has had an up and down 2025. He ran a cracker at Dundalk in August but he wasn’t quite as good at Naas last time, though he wasn’t beaten that far in fourth after suffering interference.

His best effort of this campaign came over C&D in May when he was beaten 0.5l off 97, if he can repeat that off 3lb lower he may be able to land the place money for us at odds of 33/1.

2025 Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Star Harbour e/w @ 33/1 (6 places) NB

-DaveStevos

2025 Irish Champions Weekend E/w Lucky 15

This is, without a shadow of a doubt, one of the best weekends of the Flat season. Not only do we have Irish Champions Weekend at Leopardstown and the Curragh, we also have the St Leger Festival at Doncaster. Dave Stevos has been studying the form and he has come up with four horses at big odds for a 2025 Irish Champions Weekend & Doncaster Leger meeting e/w lucky 15 (and four e/w singles), find out who he fancies below.

1.50 Doncaster Friday – Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed)

Hopefully, Sunset On Leros can get us off to a flier in the Flying Scotsman. Trained by Marco Botti, this son of Almanzor didn’t show a huge amount when a pretty well beaten fourth of five on debut at Newmarket in June. However, he left that run well behind on his second start in a class 2 novice over this C&D a month later.

Drawn in stall 1, Sunset On Leros bounced out, travelled strongly close to the pace and when Benoit De La Sayette asked him to go and win his race around 1.5f out, he quickened up in the manner of a smart horse and surged clear to win by almost three lengths.

Back in second was a horse called Allegresse and he went on to win a novice at Kempton by 9.5l on his next start so there is some substance to the form. This is obviously a step up in class but I think 20/1 looks a shade generous given the manner of his win here last time out. At those odds, Sunset On Leros is the each way selection. Hopefully he enhances Marco Botti’s fine frame hitting strike rate with 2yos at this venue (12/72 with 30 top 4s).

2025 Irish Champions Weekend Tip: Sunset On Leros e/w @ 20/1

1.50 Doncaster Saturday – Champagne Stakes (Group 2)

Usually, I leave small field races well alone but I am making an exception here. There was plenty of bullish chatter about St Mark’s Basilica’s first crop of foals before the season began and while he made a pretty slow start, in the last couple of months he has had some nice winners, none more so than Cape Ashizuri who ran out a 2l winner on his debut at Ayr (6f, gd-sft) in July.

That was a six-runner race and four of the five horses that finished behind have won since. The only horse that has failed to win from that contest is now rated 84 so it looks solid form. Cape Ashizuri got badly outpaced before picking up late and running on strongly in that contest and it was a very encouraging debut effort.

This colt is out of Muravka, a High Chaparral mare that has already produced the Japanese G3 and G1 placed Unicorn Lion, the Coventry and Prix Morny winner The Wow Signal and the French Listed winner Miss Infinity. He is bred to be a stakes horse and on the evidence of that debut win, he looks like he is. On breeding and run style the step up to 7f should really suit and he won’t mind a bit of an ease in the ground. At odds of 14/1, back Cape Ashizuri e/w.

2025 Irish Champions Weekend Tip: Cape Ashizuri e/w @ 14/1

3.50 Leopardstown Saturday – CMG Group Stakes (Group 3)

If Al Aasy runs to his rating of 115, he is clearly going to be hard to beat here. However, he’s an 8yo now and he’s had an up and down season so far, so he is not guaranteed to repeat the level of form he showed when landing a Goodwood G3 in fine style early last month.

3yos have an okay record in this race and I think It’s A Heartbeat may be capable of outrunning her odds of 50/1 for John O’Donoghue and Nathan Crosse. This filly first came to my attention when I did the spotlights for her 1m4f Curragh maiden win (good) in June. Thankfully, I tipped her to win and despite being weak in the market, she did exactly that.

After a short break, she was sent off at 11/1 for her handicap debut at the same venue (good) three weeks ago and she made a mockery of her mark of 89 to hose up by over 3l. She showed she handled an ease when a shade unlucky in running on debut at Naas (1m2f, yielding) so if the track doesn’t dry out, the ground shouldn’t be a big issue.

I think if this unexposed filly were trained in a more fashionable yard, she would probably be half her current price of 50/1 so at the odds, she is worth chancing e/w.

2025 Irish Champions Weekend Tip: It’s A Heartbeat e/w @ 50/1

1.30 Curragh Sunday – Bold Lad Sprint Handicap (Premier)

I tipped up Tango Flare for a couple of races this season to no avail. He probably should have gone close to winning in a premier handicap here in May off a mark of 97 and since then, I reckon all roads have led to this race.

Three of his last four starts have come in either listed or rated races and at Fairyhouse in June in a 6f rated race, he finished just 2.5l behind the now 104 rated King Cuan off level weights. 7f was never likely to suit in a listed race at Cork last time and I’d imagine that run was designed to keep him ticking over for another crack at this huge pot.

In last year’s renewal Pat Foley’s son of Fulbright ran a blinder to finish a 1.5l third behind My Mate Alfie off a mark of 99. He is 8lb lower now and if the 6yo gets back to the form he showed in this last season, he has to have a right chance off his current mark. At odds of 25/1, Tango Flare is the each way pick.

2025 Irish Champions Weekend Tip: Tango Flare e/w @ 25/1

-DaveStevos