Thursday
JLT Novice Chase
Willie Mullins trains two of the four market leaders in this heat as he tries to win the race for a second time. His Vautour is currently the clear favourite at a best priced 9/4. He will possibly end up shorter, especially if Mullins' other hotpots do the business earlier in the week. He is a son of Robin Des Champs, who, incidentally, is also the sire of the Carlow handler's previous winner of the race, Sir Des Champs. Unbeaten over hurdles, including a win in last years Supreme Novice, he was won two from three over fences, his only defeat coming after a shuddering mistake over Christmas at Leopardstown. He is a little bit short for me, but his chance is an obvious one.
The other two main Irish hopes according to the bookmakers are Gigginstown's Valseur Lido 11/2 (Willie Mullins) and Noel Meade's Apache Stronghold 11/2. These two have faced each other twice already, with the score currently at 1-1. Meade's charge came out on top on the most recent occasion at Leopardstown last month, and I would think he will uphold the form. However, Vautour beat Apache Stronghold quite easily at Punchestown over timber last year, and barring accidents I can see him repeating the dose on Thursday.
Ptit Zig, clear 2nd fav at 7/2, is the main British hope for the Paul Nicholls yard. He lost his unbeaten record over fences last time out, falling before the race had properly developed at Doncaster. His previous wins over fences, in particular his easy victory over Josses Hill, looked impressive, but in a race like this jumping is crucial, and you would have to wonder if that fall at Doncaster has dented his confidence. Too short for me.
There seems to be very little confidence behind any of the other runners in the field, but one that I like at a price is Splash Of Ginge 16/1. Course form on decent ground in the book. Admittedly he has a bit to find with those at the top of the market, and his last run was awful, but I am willing to forgive him that as the ground was terrible and it was on a right handed track, which Twiston Davies reckons doesn't suit him. Without that run he would probably be half the price he is now, and if the rain stays away he could be worth a small each way interest.
Picks: Vautour 9/4 Splash Of Ginge e/w 16/1
Pertemps Final
A big field handicap in which nine of the last ten winners have been priced at 10/1 and bigger, including a 50/1 winner back in 2006. Last year Fingal Bay became the first favourite to oblige since Inching Closer in 2003. The field is yet to be finalised but my picks are two horses that are guaranteed to get in.
There has been a lot of talk from some shrewd and well connected judges that Edeymi is Tony Martin's handicap plot of the festival. Unfortunately he is now a skinny enough 8/1 with the bigger prices well gone at this stage. His last run caught the eye of the stewards at Musselburgh, and it is not hard to see why if one looks at the race. He was 2nd in the Fred Winter two years ago, and had yet to be popped the question when he was brought down in last years Martin Pipe. It is easy to see why he is so well fancied, and he could well do some damage off a mark of 135.
Another horse I think can run a big race here is Tim Easterby's Trustan Times. Last year, off 144, he ran an absolute cracker to finish fourth beaten less than a length by the winner. This was his first visit to Prestbury Park and he seemed to relish the undulations and the stiff finish. He subsequently ran a gallant third in the Scottish Grand National and was put away for the summer. This year his five runs have been very poor, but as a result he has dropped to a mark of 142, 2lb lower than last year. Easterby has also been among the winners recently which is encouraging to see. James Reveley takes the ride, one of the most underrated jockeys around, and I think he will go very close in this fiercely competitive handicap.
Picks: Edeymi 8/1, Trustan Times 25/1.
Ryanair Chase
Don Cossack the one for me in a race where there has been only one winner bigger than 6/1 in the last ten years. Was at Punchestown the day he ran and easily beat Boston Bob and Lord Windemere and was hugely impressed, not only by the manner of his win, but also how he looked in the parade ring. What a good looking animal this fella is. With a clear round I can't see him being beaten.
At a price perhaps Eduard can chase home the favourite. Currently 16/1 he has some decent form in the book which suggests he could run into a place. In particular his run behind Many Clouds, where he had to give the winner 6lbs on ground softer than ideal and was beaten less than 2l, is among the best form on offer in the race. He perhaps lacks the experience of some of his rivals over fences, but this exciting young chaser could surprise a few people with a big run.
Picks: Don Cossack 7/2 (NAP), Eduard e/w 16/1
World Hurdle
A wide open race. Paul Nicholls, who has an excellent record in this courtesy of Big Bucks has two fancied runners in Zarkandar and Saphir De Reu. Both priced up at around the 5/1 mark I think they are way too short. Zarkandar especially so, considering the manner in which he finished his race when Reve De Sivola beat him in Ascot.
Lieutenant Colonel is a horse I really like and have followed all year. I watched him in action at Fairyhouse and he is a lovely scopey type. A definite chaser in the making. He is a fair price at 10/1 but he has a lot to find if the ratings are to be believed.
The horse I am sweetest on in this race though is Sandy Thomson's Seeyouatmidnight. This fella is a tank of a horse and I have been following him ever since the day I watched him beat a long odds on Regal Encore, at a price of 66/1, on his racecourse debut at Hexham. Stepped up in class and trip on his next run he hacked up by 9l at 22/1, Upped in class again for his next outing he won the Grade 2 Rendlesham, before he finally lost his unbeaten record in a Grade 1 at Aintree. I think he may well have been over the top at that stage, and he also picked up an injury in the race which held up his return to action this season.
He made his reappearance in the Rendlesham and finished second beaten just under 3l. Many would argue that he would have no chance on the back of that run, but I would disagree. He was giving 8lb to the winner, and travelled like the best horse in the race until a lack of fitness caught him out in the closing stages. With that run behind him he will strip fitter, and he is still unexposed at this level. I believe his galloping style will be perfectly suited to Cheltenham.The bookies have discounted his claims completely and he can be backed at odds of 33/1. In one of the most open races of the festival I think he has a fighting chance of running into a place. At least.
Pick: Seeyouatmidnight e/w 33/1 NB
Brown Advisory Chase
Attaglance a confident selection here. He was my bet of the festival last year and should have won. Brian Hughes was instantly removed from my Christmas Card list after that race! He keeps the ride this year, and I am sure he will be desperate to make amends. I will return to this race in more detail once the final line up is apparent.
Kim Muir Chase
No particularly strong fancy here. Will return to it when final line up is confirmed.
Daithi MacStiofain
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