Festival Fancies

It's almost that time of year again. Students of the form are cramming in the hours as the Festival fast approaches. Most bookmakers are now going non-runner no bet on all races at this stage, and there is still plenty of value to be found, especially in the handicaps. Here are a few of my Festival fancies for the opening day.

Tuesday.

Supreme Novice Hurdle

Value is not hard to come by in this race, with long time favourite, the Willie Mullins trained Douvan, available at a biggest price of 7/4. Mullins has been bullish about this one, and having won the last two editions of this race he knows what it takes to win. However, while he has looked impressive in both his Irish hurdle victories, they were both on rain softened ground and he will face very different conditions on Tuesday. The price is way too short, and I can see him going off even shorter on the day as the Irish jump on the bandwagon.
This is good news for anyone who fancies something else at a price in the race, as many other runners will be overpriced. There are a number of dangers lurking in the shadows. Chief among them is Shaneshill, another Mullins inmate, who ran a cracker at the festival last year  finishing 2nd to Silver Concorde, a defeat he went on to avenge emphatically at Punchestown. Both of these runs were on decent ground and over 2 miles, and he will  get those conditions at Cheltenham. For me he is brilliant value at around 11/1 and is a solid each-way option against the favourite. I think Seedling may well be the best of the home team.

Pick: Shaneshill e/w 11/1.

Arkle Chase

Here we have another short one, Un De Sceaux. Odds on everywhere you look. An 'aeroplane' we've been told. They won't see him for dust. He makes all. Simple. Even the shrewd Meathman Gordon Elliott has admitted defeat and has said Clarcam will be ridden for 2nd. However I have never been one for lumping on an odds on shot, especially on one that has never run at Cheltenham and  that has fallen in the recent enough past.
 One at a price that catches my eye is Smashing, a horse trained by Henry De Bromhead who is no stranger to success at Cheltenham. He has chased home Un De Sceaux and Don Poli in two chases this season, before he obliterated a poor field at Gowran. However he ran the best  best race of his career at the festival last year, finishing fourth in the Coral Cup. This was on decent ground, and Tuesday will be his first run in similar conditions since. Worth a small each way interest at 25/1.
Sgt Reckless looks to be the most interesting of the home team, and he will love the better ground. He also has decent festival form to his name and could run into a place at 16/1.

Picks: Smashing e/w 25/1 and Sgt Reckless e/w 16/1.

Festival Handicap Chase

A very tricky race with a number of potentially well treated horses. Even as a confirmed lover of handicaps I  have struggled to find the answer in this race. Barrakilla was the one that I eventually sided with. Should get into the race off a nice low weight. Ran a decent 2nd over 2m5f at the track last time out, outpaced then stayed on. That was off a mark off 135, and he is only a pound higher now. I think he will definitely improve for the step up to 3m1f, and his pedigree suggests it too (half brother to classy China Rock)

Pick: Barrakilla e/w 16/1.

Champion Hurdle

Once again  a Mullins hotpot heads the market.. Faugheen the machine is a best priced 5/4 to bring the crown back to Bagenalstown, with the legend that is Hurricane Fly and Arctic Fire also looking likely to run. The Fly is now 11 years old. Last year I was convinced a 10 year old couldn't win it, and despite his heroics on desperate ground this winter, I have seen nothing to convince me otherwise.
Jezki, back to defend his crown,and Kitten Rock fly the flag for JP McManus, with McCoy taking the reins on the former in what will be his last ever Champion Hurdle (a race he has won twice before).
The New One looks to be the home team's only chance of a winner. The general consensus last year seemed to be that he was desperately unlucky not to win the race and I find it hard to disagree. His last run was far from easy on the eye, but he battled well on desperate ground and showed a willing attitude.
Faugheen is way too short, considering what he has actually beaten, and you won't catch me steaming in at near even money. At the prices I strongly favour The New One to atone for last year's misfortune and take the title for Britain.

Pick: The New One (nb)

Mares Hurdle

Guess what? Another Mullins short priced fav in Annie Power, who bids to pick up where Quevega left off. She has had a similar preparation too, and will have been absent for the guts of a year come post time. 4/6 is best price, and a ridiculous price too in my opinion. A lot has to be taken on trust. Her main rival, stablemate Glens Melody, has a far more trustworthy profile, and was a good 2nd in this race last year, running Quevega to within 1/2l, 4/1 a fair price.
The home team's challenge will be led by Alan King's  L'Unique, merely a length behind Glens Melody in 3rd in this race last year (I was on her e/w at 25s). She looks overpriced again at 16/1. She could be worth a small e/w interest.
Another horse that caught my eye is Tim Vaughan's Hidden Identity. Fourth last year at 66/1, the bookmakers are showing her similar disdain this time around, pricing her up at a mind boggling 100/1. Given the fact that she has twice got within a length or two of Glens Melody in three attempts, I believe she has to be worth a couple of quid each way.

Picks: L'Unique e/w 16s Hidden Identity e/w 100s

National Hunt Chase

No strong opinion here. Very Wood a speculative choice.


Novice Handicap Chase

Thomas Crapper is the one for me in this tricky handicap. Ran Don Poli a close second (in receipt of a stone) at the festival last year over this trip. Has been kept out of handicaps this season and has failed to get his head in front. However, he ran Vibrato Valtat (Rpr of 164 last time out) close in a novice chase off level weights only beaten a length, and also got within 3 lengths of Three Kingdoms (Rpr of  155 last time out) This is very strong form, and it beggars belief that he has been allocated a measly mark of 134 for his chase handicap debut (the same mark he was 2nd off last year to Don Poli). Some placement by Mr. Dickin it has to be said. Absolutely thrown in in my opinion and the best bet of the day at 10/1,

Pick: Thomas Crapper 10/1 (NAP)

Daithi MacStiofain