1. CARBON DATING JP Shanahan/Ronan Whelan
While today's result in the Oaks is a reminder of the unpredictable nature of horseracing, it would be an even bigger surprise if this horse proved to be up to the task today. He is a half brother to the yard's useful performer Ralston Road, but he will need to improve in spades if he is to get involved at the business end today. Rank outsider currently priced up at 300/1 and deservedly so.
2. ELM PARK Andrew Balding/Andrea Atzeni
A son of Phoenix Reach, he was the leading staying two year old last season, and finished off a four timer with victory in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy over a mile on soft ground at Doncaster. His trainer has often suggested that he wants soft ground to be seen at his best, but his Group 2 win last year in the Royal Lodge was achieved on good to firm, so today's surface should be fine.
He reappeared in The Dante at York this year, stepped up to 10.5F for the first time, and he more than met his match with both Gosden horses finishing in front of him, the reopposing Jack Hobbs and Golden Horn.
However, both of those horses had the benefit of a previous run that day, and whilst Golden Horn ran out a comfortable winner in the end, Elm Park did travel like the best horse in the race for a long way. Mr Balding suggested that he may have been a bit short of fitness, not stamina, and if that was the case then the prospect of him reversing the form with the two Gosden horses is not as far fetched as one might think. At 8/1 he is definitely an interesting contender.
3. EPICURIS Thierry Thuilliez/C Head-Maarek
French raider for Criquitte Head-Maarek who was successful on all three starts last year, including a Group 3 and a Group 1. Reappeared this year with a second to Silverwave in a Group 3 at Longchamp, beaten four lengths. He had Medrano a couple of lengths back in third, a horse easily beaten by Storm The Stars next time out.
Bred by Juddmonte he is a son of Rail Link and is out of a dam that won a listed race over a mile on soft ground. His best form has come with cut in the ground, and he will face very different conditions today. Currently priced up at 20/1 and will need to find bags of improvement from somewhere if he is to bring the prize back across the English Channel.
4. GIOVANNI CANALETTO Aidan O'Brien/Ryan Moore
This son of Galileo has a pedigree to die for, unsurprisingly given the yard that he hails from. He is the shortest price of the Ballydoyle trio, and will be ridden by the man of the moment Ryan Moore. He can count the likes of Ruler Of The World and Duke Of Marmalade among his siblings.
He has been the 'plunge' horse this week, but I wonder if the reason for that was the fact that Moore rides, rather than a sudden improvement in the work he has been doing at home. His form does not look as strong as some of his rivals, and he was beaten by the filly Curvy stepped up to 10f and into Group 3 company last time out. He shaped as if the further step up he gets today would suit, but nevertheless it is difficult to be to confident about his chances. His current odds of 10/1 look a little skinny to me given what he has achieved so far, and there is better value to be found elsewhere.
5. GOLDEN HORN John Gosden/Frankie Dettori
Currently favourite at 2/1 after an impressive victory in the Dante on his second start this year, with Jack Hobbs and Elm Park in behind. Also beat Storm The Stars by a head on his debut last year. Frankie takes the reins, having won on him on his second start.
He is beautifully bred, sired by Cape Cross and out of a mare that is a half sister to the very useful Rebecca Sharp and Mystic Knight. He should get 12F fine, but it is far from a foregone conclusion that he does.
He will need to travel better than he did in the Dante though, as getting shuffled back through the field approaching the final stages rarely ends well in the Derby. Too short for me in the betting and I'll be leaving him alone.
6. HANS HOLBEIN Aidan O'Brien/Seamie Heffernan
The second of the Ballydoyle trio, that looks to be the third string on jockey bookings, as was Qualify yesterday. Will be ridden by Seamie Heffernan,who has been in the saddle on plenty of big day winners for O'Brien. Got the better of Storm The Stars (12.5F) on soft ground at Chester in The Vase. This is not quite as strong as some of the other form on offer, but at least he has proven his stamina over today's trip, which cannot be said for a lot of his rivals.
Has a lovely middle distance pedigree, being by Montjeu and a half brother to Sans Frontieres, who was a winner of the Irish St.Leger (14F). He has a fair bit to find on the figures with the likes of the favourite and Elm Park, but further improvement on better ground cannot be ruled out. 16/1 is probably a fair price, and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see him make a bold bid from the front. Of interest each way.
7. JACK HOBBS John Gosden/William Buick
Was second in the Dante, the race that provides the three at the top of the market today, Golden Horn, Elm Park and this one. Godolphin wasted no time in buying into him after his run in second that day, and he races in blue today bidding to give The Sheikh his first victory in a race he so dearly would love to win.
However, I believe the wait is set to go on for him, as I can't see this horse having the stamina to win a derby. He was hard at work a long way from home at York, and when Golden Horn swept past it wasn't as if this horse stayed on like a train. The gap stayed the same all the way to the line, and I'm not sure if this new trip will be enough for Jack Hobbs to reverse the form.
He does have a nice pedigree, being a son of Halling and a half brother to the useful Niceofyoutotellme. However, his dam was a speedy sort, as was her dam (although she did win over 12F in the USA), and there are enough doubts there stamina wise to suggest today's trip might stretch him.
I think his price of 5/1 is ridiculously short, and is based on the reputation of connections rather than what he has shown on the track. Another one I'll be avoiding today and maybe one to lay for a place if you are brave!
8. KILIMANJARO Aidan O'Brien/Joseph O'Brien
The third of the O'Brien darts and ridden by the trainer's son, who has ridden two of the last three winners saddled by O'Brien in the race. Won his last start at Lingfield in a listed contest over today's sort of trip, but the form looks weak in the context of this race.
Is a son of High Chapparal, but the dam side of his pedigree raises question marks about the suitability of today's test. His dam is a half sister to the likes of Mars, Wonderfully and Nayarra, all useful black type horses, but all with their best form at around a mile. At Epsom there is no hiding place and you need to be able to get every inch of the trip, and I'm not sure Kilimanjaro is bred for the job. His current odds of 20/1 an accurate reflection of his chances.
9. MOHEET Richard Hannon jr/Pat Dobbs
Highly touted during the winter, and was expected to win on his return to action, when he was beaten by stablemate Kool Kompany. Ran a decent race in the 2000 Guineas, and stayed on well enough to suggest a crack at this sort of trip might suit. Has picked a tough race to try it in though! Ridden by Pat Dobbs, who rides the horse in all his work at home. Overlooked by Dettori who understandably prefers Golden Horn.
Is a son of High Chapparal, but out of a dam that was useful at 5F and 6F, and there is a lot of speed on her side of the family. 12F might be stretching it for him today, and his current odds of 40/1 look fair. One for later on in the season and best watched today.
10. ROGUE RUNNER Andreas Wohler/Oisin Murphy
German contender and likely to come up short. Outsider at 100/1.
11. STORM THE STARS Pat Cosgrave/William Haggas
Has form with a lot of these, and has been seemingly improving with every run this year, which in fairness Mr.Haggas predicted he would do. Goes on any ground, and was a good second to Hans Holbein at Chester. Also has form with the favourite Golden Horn, going down by a head on his debut.
Beautifully bred, being a son of the outstanding Sea The Stars and out of a Sadlers Wells half sister to Giants Causeway among others. His pedigree would indicate that today's test should be perfect, and the trip and track should hold no fears.
Currently priced up at 20/1, and given his consistency and the fact that he has form with most of his rivals in the book, I think that is too big. Another to be interested in each way.
12. SUCCESS DAYS Ken Condon/Shane Foley
Been a revelation on heavy ground this year, bagging two Group 3s and putting a fair few noses out of place in the process. Those were small fields though, and the test he faces today is a whole lot different.
He is a son of Jeremy, and his dam was best on soft ground, which suggests that today's quicker conditions may not be ideal. While her dam excelled over sprint trips there are plenty of indications in her pedigree that 12F should be within reach. If there is a deluge before the off it will increase this horse's chances hugely, but if not he will probably struggle. Not for me at 18/1.
CONCLUSION
There are a number of horses that make the shortlist. Golden Horn is too short a price for me, and the same applies to Jack Hobbs and Giovanni Canaletto. The first two named have niggling doubts about the suitability of the trip in their pedigrees too. This is not the case for Hans Holbein, and he could fare best of the O'Brien trio. Elm Park is respected too, and is fancied to turn the tables on the Gosden horses that were ahead of him in the Dante. However, from a value perspective, the one I like is Storm The Stars at 20/1. He has a lovely pedigree, has kept improving with every run and 12F should prove to be his perfect trip. A solid each way bet with a live chance in a wide open race.
1.Storm The Stars
2.Elm Park
3.Hans Holbein
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