Royal Ascot Preview - Day 1

2.30. QUEEN ANNE STAKES (GROUP 1) 8 FURLONGS

A race that has been won in recent years by equine superstars like Canford Cliffs, Goldikova and Frankel. Favourites have fared well in the race of late, coming out on top in three of the last five runnings, and no winner priced bigger than 15/2 since 2005. Eight go to post in this years renewal, and the trainer of the aforementioned Goldikova, Freddie Head, has the favourite Solow, currently priced up at 6/4.
The race looks to chiefly concern the top three in the market, Solow for France, Able Friend for Hong Kong and Night Of Thunder for the Hannon yard. The vibes have been good for the John Moore trained Hong Kong challenger Able Friend, who has rattled off a six timer since November of last year, including four Group 1s and a Group 2. To give the form some context he had the more than useful Dundonnell five lengths behind in 4th on the third of those runs.
Solow has been equally as prolific, also completing a six timer on his last outing over 9.5F at Longchamp in the Group 1 Prix D'aspahan. His previous win, a four length defeat of reliable yardstick The Grey Gatsby at Meydan was his best run so far. However, the drop back to a mile could be an issue, and he could struggle to cope with out an out milers like Able Friend, and even Night Of Thunder.
The Hannon's horse high point so far came in the 2000 Guineas, when he sprang a 40/1 shock with Fallon on board. He ran with credit on his subsequent starts without managing to win, and his first victory since came on his seasonal reappearance in the Group 1 Lockinge. He is third in the betting at 5/1, and represents solid each way value.
However, the most likely winner in my eyes is the John Moore horse Able Friend. He has recorded the fastest time over a mile by quite a distance in comparison to his competitors today, he should get the quick ground he needs, and the vibes from the yard have been extremely positive. Seemingly he has travelled over well, and is eating and drinking up as normal, which is always good to hear. He has a proper turn of foot, and I fully expect Moreira to swoop late on the 5yo and bring the prize back East.

Prediction- 1. Able Friend
                   2. Night Of Thunder
                   3. Solow

3.05 COVENTRY STAKES (GROUP 2) 6 FURLONGS

Another race that has proved a happy hunting ground for favourites, with three of the last five obliging. Aidan O'Brien has won two of the last four, seven in total, and has a sole representative, Air Force Blue, this year. Jim Bolger, who won this with Dawn Approach a couple of years ago, trains the favourite Round Two who can currently be backed at 9/4. There is plenty of value to be found in this race, and I have found a horse that could run well at rather rewarding odds.
The one I like is the Johnny Levins trained Black Beach. Last time out he finished 3rd behind Round Two, beaten by  just over 2 lengths and closing the gap all the way to the line. The Bolger horse had the run of the race that day, while Black Beach blew the start, and found himself detached from the rest of the field. He was still three or four lengths out the back with two furlongs to go, so to finish within three lengths of the winner was some feat.
He flew home, and shaped as if six furlongs would be right up his street. With a better start in this race I can see him reversing that form over this trip. Whether that will be good enough to win I'm not sure, but with the Bolger horse 9/4 and the Levins horse 28/1  it doesn't require a degree in astrophysics to realise where the value lies.
Of the remainder I can see the O'Brien horse running a big one. Given O'Brien's record in the race, and the fact that this is his only entry, Air Force Blue warrants respect. He is by the same sire as connections previous winner War Command, and his pedigree is all about speed on the dam side. He is currently available at 8/1 with some firms, and I can see him going off a lot shorter on Tuesday.

Selection: Black Beach (each way) 28/1.

3.40 KINGS STAND STAKES (GROUP1) 5 FURLONGS

Eddie Lynam and his stable star Sole Power will be going for an unprecedented third win in this race, and with no rain forecast to fall conditions should be ideal for him. He is now an eight year old though, and there are plenty of more youthful challengers that will be trying to wrestle his crown from him.
Sole Power looked as good as ever in March on his last start at this trip when he took a Group 1 sprint in scintillating fashion. Last time out he ran over 6F at The Curragh, a trip that simply doesn't suit him, and on ground that would have been plenty soft enough. His trainer has proved that he knows how to get him in peak condition for this race, and he will go off a worthy favourite. His current odds of 7/2 look fair enough to me and I would love to see him complete the hat trick.
However, given that old father time waits for no man (or horse), it makes sense to have an each way saver on something else in the race at a price, and the horse I think could give Sole Power a fright is one I tipped up on this blog last time he ran, Jim Goldie's gelding Jack Dexter. This horse has won at Group 3 level in the past, but admittedly the very best of his form has come with cut in the ground and over 6F.
He has shown this season though that good ground or the minimum trip holds no fears for him, and he should have won last time out after suffering interference at a crucial time over 5F at Haydock. His trainer said after the race that 'he has been trained as a 5F horse this year' and 'that should put him spot on for the Kings Stand'. I am not surprised that he has targeted the race as Jack Dexter ran a cracker in it last year when he wasn't beaten that far at all after racing up with the pace. I can see him being held onto for longer this year, and he will be produced late by Lynch, in a similar fashion to what Richard Hughes will be trying on Sole Power. It will all depend on whether the gaps appear at the right times, but if they do Jack Dexter must have every chance of running into a place.

Selections: Sole Power(7/2) win, Jack Dexter (25/1) each way.

4.20 ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES (GROUP 1) 8 FURLONGS

Pretty straightforward with Gleneagles the one to beat. The French raider, Make Believe, who is a half brother to the outstanding Dubawi Heights, should appreciate the faster ground and looks the most likely one to profit if the favourite has an off day.

Selection: Gleneagles and Make Believe forecast.

5.00 ASCOT STAKES (HANDICAP) 2 MILES 4 FURLONGS

A race that has been dominated by National Hunt trainers in recent times, with the Chapple-Hyam yard being the last flat yard to taste success back in 2009. Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Tony Martin are the representatives from the jumping fraternity this year and provide six of the twenty strong field.
However, the horse that interests me hails from a flat yard and will be ridden by the jockey that has been succesful for the past two years in this race. Hardstone is trained by former champion jockey Johnny Murtagh and will be ridden by Fran Berry, a booking that immediately catches the eye. He has been improving with every run, and is now rated 90 having started out off 78. He has twice tasted victory, and he gave the highly rated Weld horse Don Camilo 7lbs and beat him by a length on his return to action this year over 12F. He was stepped up in trip to 15F on his next run, off a mark of 90, and ran a great race off top weight, shaping as if a further step up in trip would suit.
He gets that step up in trip in this race, and at he looks to have a great chance of making the frame in a wide open race. He will only be carrying 8st 13lbs, and will feel like he is running loose after lumbering 9st 10lbs around Leopardstown last time. He looks well worth supporting each way at the rewarding odds of 20/1.

Selection: Hardstone (each way) 20/1.


5.35 WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES (LISTED) 5 FURLONGS

Another sprint to wrap up proceedings on the first day of the meeting, and this is a race that is prone to throwing up a big priced winner. Only two favourites have won since 2005, and there have been winners in that period ranging from 14/1 all the way up to 100/1.
Wesley Ward won it last year with Hootenanny and he bids for a repeat this year with Ruby Notion, a facile winner on the dirt at Churchill Downs on her only start so far. However she is pretty short at 7/1, and one that could run well at a much bigger price is Aragon Knight.
His form figures of U52 hardly inspire confidence, but there is more to the form than meets the eye. His last run in particular was an excellent effort, and he finished in front of Jersey Breeze, Racquet and Azhar, who all won in good style on their next outings. He still looked to be learning the job that day, and if he can settle better there should be even more to come.
He is currently priced up at 66/1, and I believe he is worth a small speculative each way punt in a race that is as open as they come. His trainer Heather Main might not have many horses, but she can certainly train one, and it would be great to see Aragon Knight put her on the map.

Selection: Aragon Knight (each way) 66/1.