Lowther Stakes Preview

PINSENT MASONS LOWTHER STAKES (Group 2)
 (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 
(6 furlongs)

Richard Hannon took this last year with Tiggy Wiggy, and between him and his Father they have tasted victory three times since 2008 and six times in total, the most successful yard of all time in this race. Unusually he has no runner this year, and of the contenders on this occasion only William Haggas has a previous win to his name. 

The last two favourites have won, but only four in total have obliged since 2005 ,with just two winners returning at double figure odds. Lumiere looks set to go off as a short priced jolly but there are plenty of interesting types at bigger prices that are worthy of a second look. Below is a preview of this years heat and hopefully we can find the winner. 


1. ASHADIHAN (K. RYAN/SPENCER)

Daughter of Kyllachy who has been ridden by Jamie Spencer on both of her starts so far. First time out she was well backed in a maiden at Haydock (6F good) and she won in the manner of a useful type, slowly away and then scything through the field when asked to quicken by Spencer showing a lovely turn of foot. 

She proved that was no fluke next time at Royal Ascot in the Group 3 Albany (6F good to firm), again slowly away and giving away ground as Spencer shifted her across from her wide draw to the main group. She endured quite a rough passage through, and when she burst into contention  a furlong out it looked like a winning challenge. Illuminate denied her though, form that the winner has since franked when beating Besharah by a nose at Newmarket (group 2). 

Her dam is a half sister to 6F 2yo Group 2 winner Sander Camillo so the pedigree is there too. Her current odds of 7/1 look very big, and, granted a strong pace to aim at, Spencer will try to deliver her late in his customary cool fashion. Will need luck in running, but if she gets it she is a massive threat to all. 

2. BESHARAH (HAGGAS/COSGRAVE)

This filly left me with an awful lot of egg on my face when she romped home last time out in the Group 3 Juddmonte at Ascot, ploughing through the soft ground with glee and accounting for her opposition with the minimum of fuss. I was amazed she handled it so well, and she is obviously versatile regarding ground as well as possessing plenty of natural ability. She has also run well twice at Group 2 level and she has some of the strongest form on offer. 

 On a form line through Illuminate she should have Ashadihan's measure, but the Ryan filly endured a troubled passage through the field at Ascot, and I doubt there will be too much between them today. Rain is forecast, which will be no worry to this filly, and whether the ground comes up soft or good she should be in there pitching at the finish. 9/2 looks a fair enough price and as the filly with the strongest form in the field she has to be on any shortlist. 

3. CONTINENTAL LADY (BROWN/MURPHY)

Medicean filly who made a taking winning debut at Leicester just a few weeks ago (6F good to soft). Sixties Pilgrim who was miles back in 7th  has won a seller since, but apart from that the form has yet to be really tested. 
This filly is bred to be a middle distance horse, and is related to hurdles winner Intense Tango, as well as 2m Group 3 winner Shipmaster. It really is a stout pedigree, and whatever happens today she will be one to look out for when stepping up in trip later on in her career. She is 16/1 to score today, but her form is not as strong as some of her competitors so until she shows she belongs at this sort of level she is best watched. 

4. EASTON ANGEL (DODS/MULRENNAN)

Dark Angel filly that won her first two (both 5f good to firm/soft) before stepping up massively on that form when chasing home Acapulco at Royal Ascot (Besharah behind). Besharah reversed the form in the Duchess Of Cambridge at Newmarket, though it has to be said Easton Angel was unfortunate as it wasn't Paul Mulrennan's greatest ever ride and she only found a clear passage once the leaders had flown. 

She has a decent pedigree, nothing spectacular mind,  and there is a mix of stamina and speed in there. Her sire has been having a good year though, and this filly looks to have inherited some of his turn of foot. 5/1 looks a more than fair price, and a reproduction of that Royal Ascot run would see her right in the shake up. 

5. GLENROWAN ROSE (DALGLEISH/MAKIN)

One of the more exposed fillies in the race, having already had six runs. Was far from disgraced when stepped into Group company after his maiden win, finishing 5th   to Illuminate with Ashadihan ahead of her at Royal Ascot. Just failed to give 3lbs to a useful Giles Bravery filly last time out, going down by a short head over 5F at Musselburgh. 

Can be backed at 40/1, and on the face of it she looks set for another supporting role. A repeat of her Ascot run would not even suffice, and she looks to be one for another day. 

6. LADY CLAIR (BARRON/GIBBOONS)

Two from two so far, both over 5F, but the form of her maiden win has been let down since, and the horse she beat by less than a length last time out was miles behind Besharah and Easton Angel at Royal Ascot which suggests she will have her work cut out here. 

That second victory came on good to soft ground, so the rain that is scheduled to fall shouldn't inconvenience her too much. She is bred to be useful, being by Canford Cliffs and out of a Cape Cross mare that is out of a Group 1 winner. However, she looks to be up against it on all known form, and is likely to go off at a big price. Can currently be backed at 33/1 and will do well to finish in the top half of the field. 

7. LUMIERE  (JOHNSTON/BUICK)

Currently a short priced favourite at 11/8, and comes here with a big reputation. Absolutely bolted up on debut at the beginning of July, and the horse home in 3rd that day was beaten just 5 lengths in a Listed heat next time out, so it looks as if the form may have some substance. 

Is by Shamardal and is out of a Tobougg mare that had only the one start, an 11 length maiden victory over 7F. Lots of middle distance types in her pedigree, and will get further in time. Reputation is based on ex jockey Russ Kennemore's opinion, who rode her in work and stated he 'had never been so fast'. The big unknown would be if the ground turned soft, as his dam's win came on quick ground, as did Lumiere's debut victory.  Has all the right entries and is clearly highly regarded by connections, however 11/8 looks skinny to me, especially with rain around, and I'll be just watching her for today, on her first run in pattern company, to see if the hype is justified. 


8. QUIET REFLECTION (BURKE/HAYNES)

Another hugely impressive five length debut winner (5F good to soft), and the horse home in second that day has since hacked up by a similar distance. By Showcasing, a sire that gave connections their biggest day yet when his son Toocoolforschool bolted up in the Group 2 Mill Reef at Haydock. Her dam is out of a listed winner, so her pedigree is none too shabby.

 Is syndicate owned, and as a former member of the Ontoawinner faimily I would love to see this promising filly run well. As with the favourite, this represents a huge step up in class for her today, but in contrast to Lumiere at least her odds of 14/1 make more appeal from a betting perspective. I would imagine the more rain that falls the better it will be for this filly, and if it comes up soft I wouldn't be surprised to see a big run. Has a very similar profile to the favourite, and at much bigger odds represents proper value.

 9. TWIN FALLS  (LEVINS/CARROLL)

Irish raider who remains a maiden after two runs, the second of which was a huge improvement on what she showed on debut. She chased home Queen Of Sicily, going down by just under three lengths, and the winner has since run well at Group 3 level. The 5th home also won next time out at 40/1, landing a decent conditions race at Naas. 

Is well bred too, by Zebedee and a half brother to multiple winners, including 6F Group 3 winner Final Exam. Is a huge price at 66/1, but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if softer ground was to bring about a bit of improvement. Could run well, though it is difficult to see him winning. Best watched for today. 

CONCLUSION: 

A fascinating renewal, with Lumiere looking to deliver on all the hype we have heard about her from connections. Her maiden win was admittedly an eye catching performance, and with more improvement likely to be forthcoming she should run a big race. It is a massive step up in class though. Quiet Reflection has a very similar profile, yet she is a far bigger price, and with the falling rain likely to suit she is of definite interest each way. 

Easton Angel was unlucky behind Besharah last time out, and with a better ride today she can reverse that form. 

However, the one that makes most appeal at the current prices is Ashadihan for  Spencer and Ryan. When I started writing this preview on Tuesday night he was as big as 12/1, but even now that he has been shortened to 7/1 he still looks to represent serious value. The likes of Lumiere and Quiet Reflection should ensure it is a truly run race, and if Spencer can find the gaps and time his challenge correctly I can see Ashadihan arriving late for the win. 

STEVOS' SELECTIONS:  
1.ASHADIHAN 2. EASTON ANGEL 3.QUIET REFLECTION 4.BESHARAH