Shaneshill followed that up with a superb effort in the RSA Chase and he was thwarted in a thrilling finish by Blaklion. I was gutted with Duke Street and he had no excuses after getting the run of the race. Battleford was just a whisker away from landing the Bumper and to be honest I thought he got back up in real time. My stomach sank when Ballyandy was called the winner and for the second time we were done by Twiston Davies! Hopefully we can land some more place money tomorrow and after hitting the bar with a couple of big ones we are due a tasty priced winner. Below are my selections and analysis for every race on Day 3.
JLT NOVICES' CHASE
This is a very open looking renewal of a race that was run for the first time in 2011, and Willie Mullins has won it twice, including last year with 6/4 fav Vautour. He has been the only favourite to oblige since the inception of the race, though the only double priced winner was Benneficient back in 2013 for Tony Martin.
I think there could be another winner from the Royal County of Meath tomorrow and connections' of Zabana are very hopeful of a bold show. This 150 rated 7yo son of Halling went desperately close in a thrilling finish off 144 in the Coral Cup last year so he has proven himself at the track. He was 4 from 11 over timber and he signed off on his hurdling career with a fine 3rd to Jezki in a Grade 1 at Punchestown (24f yielding).
He has had just the two starts chasing and he opened his account at the first attempt when accounting for useful sorts Blair Perrone and Tell Us More at Leopardstown (19f heavy). It was an impressive performance seeing as he is best on a decent surface, and it is perhaps best to put a line through his run in a Grade 1 at the same track (21.5f heavy) when the trip on such bad ground likely stretched his stamina. Returned to good ground tomorrow we should see a much better horse, and at odds of 12/1 he is a confident each way selection who should go very close given a clear round.
STEVOS' SELECTION: ZABANA (E/W) 12/1 NAP
PERTEMPS FINAL
24 will go to post in what looks a devilishly difficult puzzle to solve this year. Only one favourite has won since 2006 and 8 of the last 10 winners have won at prices ranging from 14/1 to 50/1. Nicky Henderson sent out Call The Cops to win it last year and he was the second 6yo in three years to come out on top. Only 3 of the last 10 winners have carried more than 11 stone and the last Irish horse to win was Kadoun back in 2006.
I am taking a chance on a big one here, and with some bookies paying an extra place it would be advisable to shop around. The Peter Bowen yard hasn't been having a great time of it this season, but he runs a horse here called Rolling Maul, and though this 8yo son of Oscar is a monstrous price, I think he could surprise a few people with a decent run.
After winning here at the New Years meeting back in 2015 off 125 (24f soft) he was put away with a crack at this race in mind. However, he just missed the cut off a mark of 130 and he instead went to Warwick (25 soft) a couple of weeks later and hacked up by 4L. He followed that up with another excellent run behind Aqalim off 137 back at Cheltenham (24f good) and he was sent on his summer holidays after that run.
He embarked on a novice chasing campaign when he returned and he was pulled up on two of his three runs (well beaten on the other). However, he showed clear signs of life on his return to hurdling on his last run, when he came 4th behind Flintham at Warwick (26f heavy) off 137 back in January. He has been put away since that run and he has crept into the race that he was targeted at last year off 135. With crack claimer David Noonan taking off a very handy 5lb he is effectively off his last winning mark, and at odds of 66/1 he looks worthy of a small bet each way in a race that a whole host of horses hold genuine chances.
STEVOS' SELECTION: ROLLING MAUL (E/W) 66/1
RYANAIR CHASE
With the defection of Vautour from the Gold Cup this race has taken on a completely different complexion. He will be bidding to become just the 4th favourite to win since 2006 and he is hard to oppose back down to a more suitable trip. Connections have likely made the right move in swerving the slog that is the Gold Cup and he is justifiably an 11/10 favourite.
One horse that could run well at a price is Taquin Du Seuil for Jonjo O'Neill. This 9yo son of Voix Du Nord had some serious form as a novice chaser and he is 5 from 12 over fences. The highlight was a win in the JLT back in 2014 (20f good) when he beat Uxizandre, but it was downhill after that and he was miles behind that rival in this race last year.
However, he reportedly had lots of niggles last season and he returned to action at Warick a month ago, hacking up in a handicap off a mark of 152 and showing plenty of his old spark. He is allegedly in fine fettle and connections stumped up a fair few quid to supplement him for this race last week. He is a dual good ground course winner at around this trip, he looked back to something like his best last time and at odds of 20/1 he could represent each way value in a race that looks Vautour's to lose.
STEVOS' SELECTIONS: VAUTOUR (WIN) 11/10 TAQUIN DU SEUIL E/W 20/1
WORLD HURDLE
I have written an in depth preview of this race for Bettingtools and you can read it here.
BROWN ADVISORY PLATE
I have had a horse in mind for this race for quite a while and Empire of Dirt looks a fascinating contender for Colm Murphy and Gigginstown, neither of whom are strangers to success at the festival. This 9yo son of Westerner has won just 2 of his 11 starts over fences, but he bounced back to form with a commanding win at Leopardstown (21f soft) in a valuable handicap off 133 last time, and straight after that win his trainer was talking about a trip to Cheltenham.
All his wins have come on soft or heavy ground, but he hasn't had many chances on a decent surface and his last run on better than soft saw him finish just 4L behind Faugheen (20f good to yielding) off level weights back in Dec 2013. His trainer also thinks that good ground should be fine, and his sire Westerner has produced plenty of high class good ground jumpers (Cole Harden and Western Warhorse among others). He looks a big price at 20/1 and off a mark of 142 he could run a big race if the better surface suits.
STEVOS' SELECTION: EMPIRE OF DIRT (E/W) 20/1
MARES' NOVICES' HURDLE
Yet another Ricci/Mullins horse dominates the market here and Limini is a 5yo mare that has yet to taste defeat over timber. She has had just two runs since arriving from France and she was impressive in accounting for subsequent 4 time winner Sandymount Duke first time out at Punchestown (16f good). She hacked up in a Grade 3 mares' event afterwards, and the reopposing Whistle Dixie was 17L behind (18f heavy). She has long been a short priced favourite for this race and with winning form on good ground she looks by far the most likely winner at her current odds of 4/5.
At a price one that could run a big race is Tea in Transvaal, a 5yo daugher of Teofilo who has been a revelation since sent hurdling after a moderate flat career (rated 79). She has been put away since her last win in November, a 6L romp in a Listed heat, and she has won 5 of her last 6 starts. Her only defeat during that run came at Cheltenham when she took on the boys (16.5f good) and she was far from disgraced in fifth behind the likes of Devilment, Hargam and Lil Rockerfella.
This race has been the target since that listed win back in November and she is fine on any ground ranging from soft to good. She is rated 138 and that would give her a fair amount to find with the principals, but she has done nothing but improve in the last year and a big run with Paul Moloney on board would come as no surprise. If you are looking for an each way alternative to the favourite you could do a lot worse than have a couple of quid each way on Tea In Transvaal at 22/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: TEA IN TRANSVAAL E/W 22/1
KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE
I had tipped up Indian Castle for the handicap chase on Tuesday but he was declared a non runner. He instead takes his chance here and JJ King has been booked for the ride. His trainer Ian Williams was on target with Ballyalton earlier in the week and he could be set for another big day with this fella.
He was a course winner over 21f (heavy) here back in January 2014 off 135 and he ran a huge race to be 7th in this race (25.5f good) off a mark of 140 on his next start when he would have finished much closer only for a final flight blunder. He had a poor season last year, but he returned to form in a big way at last year's festival (good to soft), when again he didn't enjoy much luck in running in 4th behind The Druids Nephew off 139.
He has had a very similar preparation this year and he comes here on the back of a poor run when he was well backed for a 26.5f chase here off 139 on New Year's Day. However, every cloud has a silver lining and he has been dropped to a mark of 134 for tomorrow. That is 1lb below his last winning mark and he is 5lb lower than for his super effort last year. He is a big price at 20/1 and he looks well worth a small each way bet in what looks a wide open handicap.
STEVOS' SELECTION: INDIAN CASTLE (E/W) 20/1
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