Both selections ran decent races on Friday, but
unfortunately Fox Trotter just missed out on a place. High Commander stayed on
pretty well for 3rd, but the big eye catcher was the Frankel colt. He was given
a very gentle introduction and, to be honest, I though he was going to breeze
past us and take 3rd. However, High Commander held off his late challenge,
so at least we got something back from the day’s investment.
Tomorrow is Champions’ Day at Ascot, and the fare is of the
very highest quality. There are Group races galore, and the ground should be
beautiful for this time of year. The good to soft ground has dried out to good
and, with sporadic showers forecast, it should stay that way, or maybe just on the easy
side tomorrow. You can find out my thoughts on the day’s action below.
RACE 1
Those that have been following the blog long-term probably
know who I am going to tip up in this race. But don’t be fooled, because it is
not just a sentimental selection. Litigant is a horse that romped home for the
blog in the Ebor (14f gd) at a massive price, and he showed that was no fluke
by winning the November handicap off 106 on his last start at Doncaster (12f
hvy).
He hasn’t been since that near 5L romp, and he has always
been a hard horse to keep right. However, Tuite is reportedly very happy with
his condition heading into this race, and he has secured the services of James
Doyle for the ride. His absence of 343 days isn’t off putting, as he has run
some of his best races after similar breaks. He goes on any ground, he stays
all day and he could put it up to the favourite Order Of St George. His price
of 16/1 looks way too big, and he is the each way selection.
STEVOS’ SELECTION:
LITIGANT E/W 16/1
RACE 2
Although the majority of trainers will be pleased that the
rain has missed Ascot, there are some that would have preferred to see the
heavens open. Quiet Reflection fits that description, but once there is no jar
she should be absolutely fine. It was genuine good ground when she won her
Group 2 at Haydock, and that was visually one of her best performances. The only
two horses to finish in front of her (Limato and Suedois) this season don’t
run, and she has beaten plenty of this field before.
The two I would be most worried about are Shalaa and Mecca’s
Angel, and the former looked to have a bit more up his sleeve than the winning
margin suggests last time out. He has won 7 in a row since his debut defeat,
but that was only a G3 last time and this is a big step up in class.
Mecca’s Angel is a serious mare on her day, as she showed at
York when beating Limato. She ran another cracker in Chantilly last time out,
so she comes here in fine fettle. However, they have it all to do to beat Quiet
Reflection, and if there is a drop of rain it will further enhance her chance.
It could be another big race success for the Ontoawinner Syndicate, and at odds
of 3/1 she is the selection.
STEVOS’ SELECTION:
QUIET REFLECTION WIN 3/1
RACE 3
The Champion Fillies’ and Mares stakes looks a mouth-watering
renewal, and a case can be made for plenty in this 12f G1 contest. The Aidan O’Brien
trained 3yo filly Seventh Heaven is the market leader at 15/8, and she has been
mightily impressive over this distance the last twice. She wouldn’t want any
rain though, as she was well beaten at Epsom when there was an ease and her
best form has come on good or better.
However, at an absolutely huge price I think that Promising
Run is worth a second glance. She won her second race at pattern level when
taking a G3 in Turkey on her penultimate run, and she won the G2 Rockfel as a
2yo at Newmarket. She has been highly tried during her 11 race career, and she
has a couple of pieces of form that would give her a squeak at this level.
Her 5th here over 8F in the G1 Coronation Stakes
was a fine effort, and she shaped as though further would definitely suit. She
was less than 2L behind Alice Springs that day and she has gone on to win two
Group 1s since. Promising Run was last seen in an 8f Listed contest at
Newmarket, and she could only manage 4th, beaten over 5L. However,
once again she was doing all her best work at the finish, and this step up to
12f looks certain to suit.
Bin Suroor is flying, and the form figures for his last 4
runners reads 1212. The champion jockey has been booked, the extra distance is
another positive and possibly the best run of her career came at the track. Now
admittedly she has it all to do at the figures, as she is rated 13lb lower than
the fav and they race off level weights. However, 66//1 looks an absolutely
massive price for this filly and at those sort of odds she is surely worth a
very small interest each way.
STEVOS’ SELECTION:
PROMISING RUN E/W 66/1
RACE 4
Aidan O’Brien has a strong hand here, and on jockey bookings
and form it looks as though Minding is the first string. However, she has had a
long season, and she has had a couple of tough races. Another of O’Brien’s
runners will come into the race a lot fresher, and last year’s Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile Turf winner Hit It A Bomb could be worth chancing each way at a
massive price.
He has had just a couple of outings this season, and he was
entitled to need his seasonal reappearance run at Leopardstown. He still ran
pretty well that day, and he shaped as though he would come on heaps for it. He
again ran well on ground softer than ideal over 8f at Leopardstown last month,
just 2L behind Awtaad and closing all the way to the line. Those two runs
should have put him cherry ripe for this race, and the drying ground will suit.
He will likely be heading Stateside again after this race, but he is a horse
with huge ability and a big run at odds of 25/1 would come as no surprise.
STEVOS’ SELECTION:
HIT IT A BOMB E/W 25/1
RACE 5
On all known form this looks like being a match between
Found and Almanzor, though Fascinating Rock won’t relinquish his crown without
a fight. It was hard not to be impressed with the manner of Almanzor’s victory
at Leopardstown, and the turn of foot he showed was simply scorching. He has
won Group 1s on soft, yielding and good ground, so a drop of rain would be no
worry to this son of Wootton Bassett.
He was almost a length too good for Found the last day, but
you have to remember that Almanzor took an extremely wide route, and he must
have travelled a good bit further than the rest of the field. The fly in the
ointment could be Jack Hobbs, but a lot has to be taken on trust with him after
he was pulled up and dismounted last time out. At his best he is a serious
horse, and if any trainer can get him back to his best it is Gosden.
Last year’s fourth Racing History is back for another crack,
but he is another one returning from a lengthy absence. He did hack up on his
seasonal reappearance last season, but it will be hard to repeat the trick in this
contest. He is 33/1 though, and he could sneak a place if a couple of the
others have an off day. However, the performance of Almanzor last time out was
one of the best I have seen for some time and he is the selection for this year’s
Champion Stakes.
STEVOS’ SELECTION:
ALMANZOR WIN 13/8
RACE 6
A nice easy race to finish proceedings, with the 20 runner
Balmoral Handicap over the straight mile. The one I like here is Master The
World, and if you can forgive his last two runs he has to have a great chance.
He ran no sort of race in the Cambridgeshire off today’s mark of 108, but that
run was too bad to be true. He bounced back from a poor run to be an excellent
3rd in this race last year off 104, and he is just 4lb higher today.
He was beaten a head off that same mark of 104 at Goodwood
earlier this Summer, and he followed that up with a super effort in a G3 at
Salisbury, chasing home Zonderland (beaten 1.75L). He has loads of experience
in these big field handicaps, and he is versatile regarding ground. Pat Dobbs,
who was on board for the near miss at Goodwood comes back in for the ride, and
his only other ride for Elsworth this year won. He has a decent draw in stall
5, and he is well capable of outrunning his odds of 28/1.
STEVOS’ SELECTION:
MASTER THE WORLD E/W 28/1 nap
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