Epsom Day 1 Selections

Indigo ran a poor race for us earlier this week but there was a valid excuse for the performance. There was definitely some juice in the ground and that was never likely to suit Mark Usher's charge. It is frustrating when you tip up a horse when the ground is reported as being one way and it changes before the race starts. She remains unexposed on turf and on rattling quick ground she can prove better than her current mark.

Below are my thoughts on Day 1 of the Derby meeting and there is plenty of action to get stuck into on the Downs. The soft ground will be a hindrance to lots of the runners so horses that handle an ease (or that are bred to handle an ease) could be the order of the day.

RACE 1

Two of the leading fancies in this 6F Listed race are by Distorted Humour, and while there is no denying his quality as a sire, there is also no denying that his progeny have a decidedly average record on easy ground. The one I am interested in here at at price is the David Barron trained Danielsflyer. He was beaten on debut at skinny odds over 5f at Southwell but he stumbled at a crucial time and that may well have cost him the race.

He was stepped up to 6f in a similar heat at Ayr (gd/sft) and those who followed him again recouped their losses. He managed to win despite a whole lot going wrong, squeezed for room at the start and again at the midway point in the race. He took all the misfortune in his stride though and he showed a nice turn of foot when he felt the warmth of the whip for the first time. Hyperfocus looked exciting when winning his maiden by 5L and his trainer really likes him. The form of his win has been let down though, and at the current odds I would much rather be with the Barron horse. He is the each way suggestion at 14/1.

STEVOS' SELECTION: DANIELSFLYER E/W 14/1

RACE 2

10 go to post for this 10f handicap and there are is no shortage of horses with course form in the book. Dark Red has won 3 on the trot, including here over course and distance on soft, but he is up to a mark of 95 from 75 and that could be a bridge too far for him. Felix De Vega pushed him hard at Chester but he looks handicapped up to the hilt too.

The one I like at a price is the Sylvester kirk trained son of Nayef, Gold Prince, a two time winner on ground ranging from heavy to good to firm. He won over a mile off 83 last August but his form nosedived afterwards. However, he showed that the winter break did him the world of good by reappearing with a cracking effort in 2nd behind Interconnection at Newmarket (10f gd/fm).

He has been raised to a career high mark of 90 after that run but he is bred to be better and his half sister was a Group 2 (12.5f) and Group 3 (10f) easy ground winner in France (rpr 113). He is drawn to attack in stall 4 and if he can ping the start and dictate the pace he could be a tough nut to crack in the closing stages. He is put forward as the each way selection at odds of 11/1.

STEVOS' SELECTION: GOLD PRINCE E/W 11/1

RACE 3

The Group 3 Diomed Stakes is the third race on the card and Arod is a warm order after his solid seasonal reappearance run at Ascot (8f gd/sft). He could only manage 3rd in that Listed contest but he showed last year that he was capable of mixing it at this level and higher by winning this race last year and going close at Group 1 level. The ground was good last year though and the runner up that day, Custom Cut, will be much better suited by today's conditions. He still has to concede 5lbs to Arod and that could be too big an ask.

Sea Of Flames runs for the same connections as my selection in the previous race, Gold Prince, and they are actually related. This son of Aqlaam is out of a two time winning half-sister of Gold Prince, and it is a family that relishes cut in the ground. This 3yo has been campaigned to good effect on the all weather and he has won 4 from 5 at Lingfield, including two Listed heats. He has had just two runs on turf and was well beaten on both occasions, but both efforts came on rock hard ground. This will be his first run on soft and as a 3yo he only has to carry 8st 7lbs. De Sousa is back on board and he has a 100% record on Sea Of Flames (2/2). He is drawn to attack in stall 2 and at odds of 25/1 he is a speculative each way selection.

STEVOS' SELECTION: SEA OF FLAMES E/W 25/1

RACE 4

This valuable 8.5f handicap looks a fiercely competitive contest and a case can be made for plenty of them. Alcatraz is an interesting contender at the foot of the handicap and he has a good draw in stall 2. He will appreciate the drop in trip and he will strip much fitter for his comeback run at Windsor (10f gd/sft). However,the value has gone from him now at odds of 7/1 and as he has yet to prove he can win off his mark of 83 I am going to leave him alone today.

At a monster price the one I am going to take a chance on is Cordite for on fire trainer Jim Boyle. This 5yo son of Footstepsinthesand has been in the doldrums for quite some time but he showed some very smart form as a 3yo for Mick Appleby. He was highly tried after his easy maiden win (7f soft) and he ran some cracking races at Group 2, 3 and Listed level. He has shown his best form with cut in the ground and his best effort came in a class 2 handicap at Leicester (8.5f) when beaten less than a length off 104.

It has been downhill since then though, but he showed definite signs of a return to form on his penultimate run at Brighton (7f gd/sft). The first time hood seemed to spark him into life and he was beaten under 2L off a mark of 85. He is a pound lower here after a moderate effort at Lingfield but the return to soft ground and step back up in trip give cause for optimism today. If he can get back to anywhere near the form of that run off 104 he is thrown in off 20lb lower. At odds of 33/1 he is worth a small each way bet for a trainer whose last two runners have won.

STEVOS' SELECTION: CORDITE E/W 33/1

RACE 5

The Oaks is the highlight of the day and you can read my thoughts and find out my fancy here at Bettingtools.

RACE 6

This Listed 7f contest is a cracking little race and there are a number of highly promising sorts in the field. Haalick is a warm order for Varian and Atzeni after an eyecatching run at Goodwood (7f gd) last time out in a handicap off 101. He shaped as though he wanted at least a mile though and it was a similar story on his previous run over 8f at Lingfield.

The one that I am interested in here at a price is the Brian Meehan trained gelding Smuggler's Moon. This son of Danehill Dancer is out of a half sister to Strategic Prince so he is bred to be a smart horse. He was well beaten on his only run as a 2yo but he was never right and he looked a different proposition on his return to action this season.

He stayed on powerfully to claim a 7f maiden at Newbury (7f gd/sft) and the trip looked to suit him perfectly. The runner up has since won a handicap off 77 so it isn't bad form. His trainer nominated the Group 3 Jersey Stakes as a target after that win so he obviously considers him to be a lot better than his official rating of just 79. He is completely unexposed having had just the two starts and while he has an awful lot to find on the figures he could outrun his odds of 16/1.

STEVOS' SELECTION: SMUGGLER'S MOON E/W 16/1

RACE 7

Nothing appeals as being overpriced in this handicap and I will be keeping my powder dry for Derby Day. Check back on Saturday morning for my Derby Day selections. You can read my in depth preview of the big race here .