Royal Ascot Day 1

Tuesday sees the Olympics of flat racing get underway at Ascot and what a week of racing there is in store. The rain has been falling over the weekend, and on Monday, and as a result the going will likely be soft for the start of racing. Many of the ante post favourites for the big races during the week are at their best on a quick surface so there could be a few shock results. Below are my thoughts on the opening day of what will hopefully be a week of racing to remember.

RACE 1 QUEEN ANNE STAKES

I have written a preview of this competitive Group 1 contest for Bettingtools and you can read it by clicking here.

RACE 2 COVENTRY STAKES

With 19 of the fastest young horses on the planet declared for this 6f Group 2 2yo contest it promises to be a thrilling spectacle. Favourites have a decent enough record in the race with 5 of the last 10 jollies obliging. Aidan O'Brien has won it three times since 2006 and he looks to have a real chance with market leader Caravaggio. The last time O'Brien won this back in 2013 he also had the market leader with 5/2 shot Stubbs, but the winner was War Command and he was a 20/1 shot. His son Joseph runs Lundy and he should not be discounted with brother Donnacha keeping the ride after a good listed 2nd at Naas (6f gd).

However, Caravaggio is a warm order for a reason and the recent rain will be of no worry to him. This son of Scat Daddy hosed up on soft ground on his first start on turf at the Curragh in a listed race, accounting for Darren Bunyan's promising 2yo Mister Trader (a horse I fancy for the finale today). Caravaggio was also too good for Lundy on debut at Dundalk and with the ground certain to suit he is a solid looking 9/4 shot if short prices are your thing. Ger Lyons also has a serious contender in Psychedelic Funk and he was mightily impressive when hacking up at Naas.

The one I like at a massive price is the Paddy Twomey trained and now Godolphin owned son of Dutch Art Van Der Decken. This fella was backed at silly prices the night before he made his debut at the Curragh (6f) and he duly rewarded support, winning easily by 2L at odds of 6/1. Godolphin brokered a deal for him so they were obviously impressed, and that win came on soft ground so the ground will hold no fears at Ascot. His trainer is convinced that he will improve on better ground but Dutch Art is a sire that often instils a liking for easy ground in his progeny. Given that this lad is already proven on soft I think it is a clear case of better the devil you know and he looks a big price at 25/1. He is the each way selection with Wayne Lordan keeping the ride.

STEVOS' SELECTION: VAN DER DECKEN E/W 25/1

RACE 3 KING'S STAND STAKES

This is another race that I have covered for Bettingtools and you can find out what I fancy by clinking here.

RACE 4 ST JAMES' PALACE STAKES

This is a race that does not really appeal to me as a betting proposition. For all intents and purposes it looks a match between The Ghurka, Awtaad and Galileo Gold and with a pace maker in the field it is sure to be a truly run race. The ground has probably turned against Newmarket Guineas winner Galileo Gold and he will be a better animal when he gets proper good ground. The Ghurka didn't make the track as a 2yo but he has looked very talented in winning his last two races, including the French Guineas on good at Deauville.

My idea of the winner is the Kevin Prendergast trained colt Awtaad. Prendergast is now the wrong side of 80 but he is as brilliant a handler as ever and you can see the glint in his eye whenever he is talking about this fella. He put Galileo Gold in his place in the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh on yielding and he is a listed winner on soft. He is four from four since his debut defeat and he can make it five in a row today.

RACE 5 ASCOT STAKES 

This handicap sees 20 go to post and stamina will be a must over a trip of 20f on ground that will probably be very soft. Irish jumps trainers have farmed this race in recent seasons and three of the last four winners have travelled over from the Emerald Isle. Willie Mullins won it last year with Clondaw Warrior and also in 2012 with Simenon. The last flat trainer to triumph was the Chapple-Hyam yard with Judgethemoment back in 2009. Only one favourite has won since 2006, Clondaw Warrior last year.

Mullins fires two bullets this year in an attempt to retain his crown and on jockey bookings it looks as though Pique Sous is the more fancied one with Ryan Moore on board. Martin Harley rides Sempre Medici and of the two I would prefer the chances of the Ricci horse as he has shown a distinct preference for easy ground. Pique Sous loves a quick surface and the rain is a huge negative for him.

The one I like at a tasty price is the Brian Ellison trained Totalize. This 7yo son of Authorized races off a mark of 95 with good claimer Callum Shepherd taking off a handy 5lb. He was on board for his last run at Chester and this dual purpose performer has been shaping as though he is crying out for this marathon trip of 20f. He has won on ground ranging from heavy to good and Ellison will be thrilled that the rain has arrived. He is still 9lb above his last winning mark of 86, but with Shepherd's claim I think he is capable of going close off his current rating.

He was stone last turning into the straight in the Chester Cup (18.5f) off this mark and he flew home for 7th. That was some feat at a track like Chester, though he did get all the gaps he needed to make his challenge up the inside. He also went close at Haydock last May off just a pound lower, staying on strongly for 2nd over 16f at Haydock. I think that 20f on soft ground will be right up his street and he is the each way selection at odds of 20/1.

STEVOS' SELECTION: TOTALIZE E/W 20/1

RACE 6 

I fancy Mister Trader for this race and I tipped him up earlier this week here at Bettingtools.