Saturday's Selection

Apologies for the lack of selections this week but it has been manic with the Euros and Copa America. This Saturday is Irish Derby day at the Curragh and I am heading along tomorrow to see what all the fuss is about. Hopefully the rain stays away during racing and we get a nice day for it. With the rain that is due to fall overnight the tables have turned in Harzand's favour and if it comes up genuinely soft he is difficult to oppose.

However, he is a skinny price and I like the look of one in the Northumberland Vase at Newcastle at 3.40. This 2m handicap is a consolation race for the Plate but the prize money on offer is none too shabby. The winner picks up a cheque of £42k and it is no surprise that there is a big field given the generous prize money on offer. It will be run on the new tapeta surface for the very first time and by all accounts most trainers and jockeys have been complimentary about the track.

The one I like in this staying handicap is the Julie Camacho trained Swaheen, a 4yo son of Lawman who has won 3 of his 14 starts. He has won on ground ranging from good to firm to soft so all ground comes alike to him. His sire has a decent 26% strike rate on the all weather and his half brother was beaten a nose on the tapeta at Wolves, so the chances are he will handle it.

From a handicapping perspective he gets to race off a mark of 88, which admittedly is 4lb above his last winning mark of 84. That win came last October at York on his first try at 14f, and he looked as though he needed every inch of the trip. He stayed on really stoutly and he wasn't stopping when he crossed the line. That was a £31k race and Camacho had targeted it for some time.

This race is even more valuable tomorrow and it would be no surprise were this his target for this year. He returned to action with a cracking effort over an inadequate 12f at Thirsk, staying on really well on soft ground for 6th off a mark of 90. He ran flat on his next appearance at Hamilton, again off 90 (13f) but he can be forgiven that run. He was given a month off to get over those exertions and returned with a run at York (14f gd) which should have pur him cherry ripe for this.

He has been dropped to a mark of 88 and Connor Beasley, who has won on him before, takes the ride. Camacho has won 5 races from her 38 runners at Newcastle for a strike rate of 13%. Beasley is 9/85 when riding for the yard and he will be in confident mood after riding a nice winner at Hamilton on Thursday.

Swaheen will need to be ridden with confidence tomorrow as he is a horse that needs to be played late. Hopefully Beasley can drop him in and come with a customary late run. I think the step up to 16f looks sure to suit and given luck in running Swaheen could reward each way support at 33/1.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.40 NEWCASTLE SWAHEEN E/W 33/1